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Thread: Solving the Lowry conundrum and keeping current core (Vasquez, Patterson)

  1. #41
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    If Lowry can maintain this level of play for the next few years, then one would be a fool to not want that. We're not going to draft a better PG, and we're not going to sign a better PG.

    What makes me nervous is the contract year. I'm hoping his numbers are for real.
    Not sure it's a huge "if". I could see him dipping a bit, although not significantly enough to worry, since as you mention, he's playing this way in a contract year.

    I agree we're not going to sign a better PG...I disagree about the draft, at least with a long-term outlook. We won't draft a PG who's better than Lowry next year...We may be able to draft one who's better than Lowry in 3 years, even without a lottery pick. It would still make sense to re-sign Lowry in that scenario, if the goal is to field as competitive a team as possible. But will that be the goal? If it's not, Masai has no reason to invest in Lowry. If (just for argument's sake here people, don't want to start a debate) he decides to aim for the lottery next season, I'm sure he'd be looking to sign a worse PG to smaller money.

  2. #42
    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    I am not sure why it is a conundrum. Lowry has been a pretty consistent player over the years notwithstanding his recent surge. In fact, if you look closely at this year's numbers, other than taking and making more shots and cutting down his turnovers, he is effectively doing what he has done for a few years now.

    So, leaving this year aside, he is an extremely productive player who has been consistently good for the past 4 seasons. Point being, he is always going to be a movable asset that you can get value for. I would be more worried about a Lowry extension if they were throwing $9 million into a blackhole of suck but Lowry isn't that at all.

    The contract year issue is an issue but that's something that Ujiri has to make a call on: he either trusts Lowry to become a key player going forward or he doesn't. If he does, then it shouldn't matter that it's a contract year.

  3. #43
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    Just throwing this out there without diving into too much research or thought (asking for trouble I know), but is doing as good as possible this year with KL, then letting him walk for nothing not a realistic option? If we can't get anything of value in a trade, let him walk. We *maybe* get a decent playoff run this year, and hope for more internal improvement next year. Next year if we are a mess, we have our draft pick at least. Does anyone know if we own more than ours in 2015?

  4. #44
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote BrydenB wrote: View Post
    Just throwing this out there without diving into too much research or thought (asking for trouble I know), but is doing as good as possible this year with KL, then letting him walk for nothing not a realistic option? If we can't get anything of value in a trade, let him walk. We *maybe* get a decent playoff run this year, and hope for more internal improvement next year. Next year if we are a mess, we have our draft pick at least. Does anyone know if we own more than ours in 2015?
    It's an option, but not the greatest from an asset-management perspective.

    You never want to give away your belongings for free
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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  6. #45
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    Quote BrydenB wrote: View Post
    Just throwing this out there without diving into too much research or thought (asking for trouble I know), but is doing as good as possible this year with KL, then letting him walk for nothing not a realistic option? If we can't get anything of value in a trade, let him walk. We *maybe* get a decent playoff run this year, and hope for more internal improvement next year. Next year if we are a mess, we have our draft pick at least. Does anyone know if we own more than ours in 2015?
    just ours.

    in 2016 we have ours and knicks/nuggets
    @jerboat

  7. #46
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer Matt52's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Sorry to rain on your parade, but this won't work. Let's put aside the fact that Lowry would never agree to a 5 year 36M deal when he could get a 4 year of the same total value...

    Your premise is based on Collison's case. It only works that way if it is an extension. If the player is a free agent, the signing bonus is limited to 15% of the total contract value (5.4M, not your 9.8M), and furthermore, is not treated as a bonus under the cap - it's cap hit is spread equally over all the years of the deal. Lowry's cap hit for the contract you describe above (even with the too big bonus) would be as follows:

    6.46, 6.79, 7.14, 7.47, 7.81

    Now, the Collison case works because a team with cap space can place that signing bonus onto the remaining years of the current contract rather than the extension years. This is because it actually isn't just an extension. If it were, the signing bonus would be limited to 15% of the contract value. Instead, it is deemed as a renegotiation of the existing deal, adding salary to the deal, and the extension adds years to the renegotiated deal.

    So OKC had an abundance of cap space that year, and signed Collison to an "extension" of 2.76M per year, but with a signing bonus of 6.52 million. Since they had the cap space, they allocated the entirety of that bonus to their current year's salary cap (by renotiating his current deal to be for 13M instead of 6). That gave him an effective salary of 4.4M per year over the extension, even though their cap hit was 1.6M less.

    Applying that case to the Raptors, you can theoretically see potential. It gives the opportunity to offer more for Lowry than his theoretical extension limit would allow, which would solve the UFA risk problem. But for it to work, the Raptors need cap space now. And they are far from that. Currently they have 68M committed. That's about 9.4M over the cap.

    Now if they wanted to offer Lowry 36M over 4 years to keep him, I think to agree to a 3 year extension he'd need more than 9M per year to do so. He could probably agree to 30M over 3 years instead of 36 over 4. Maybe that's optimistic, but I'll go with it. So that's 10M per year, which the Raptors cannot offer.

    That is, they cannot offer it based on his current salary. 30M over 3 years is a starting salary of 9.3M. That means he would need a salary of 8.65M this year to be eligible for an extension of that value. He currently makes 6.21M - that's a difference of 2.45M. That is the amount of cap space the Raps would need to clear up - see, they don't even need to front load a full signing bonus to be able to keep Lowry, just enough to make re-signing him possible. So, let's take that 2.45M off the total contract, meaning we need only sign him to a 3 year, 27.5 M deal, with a "signing bonus" of 2.5M now. Now if you iterate that a few times, you get an ideal contract extension starting at 8.72M (28.1M over 3 years) with a signing bonus of 1.91 M.

    So if the Raps can clear 1.91M in cap space, THIS YEAR, they could do it. So they would need to shed 11.35M in salary before June 30th. Waiving Salmons won't do it as his non-guarantee is for next year, not this year. Waiving Julyan Stone now would free up 0.54M. Longer you wait, the less that frees up, but that's not much anyway. Would have to be a big deal with a team well under the cap, or a deal for a player like Bynum (little late though).

    The 76ers and Bucks have loads of cap space. A couple of deals with a couple of those teams, or a few deals with less salary coming back could add up to that 11M. Trading to receive unguaranteed players like CJ Miles would be a good idea as well. Although again you have to waive them immediately to maximize your savings.
    Ahhh shit.

    Nice post.

    Thanks.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  8. #47
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer Matt52's Avatar
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    Original post edited to reflect DanH post.

    Something to keep in mind for Amir in 2015 though - if he is still on the roster.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  9. #48
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Original post edited to reflect DanH post.

    Something to keep in mind for Amir in 2015 though - if he is still on the roster.
    Actually a great idea, if the goal is to make a splash in 2016. Use 2015 cap space to hand out bonuses, free up a little in future while keeping talent.

  10. #49
    Raptors Republic All-Star tucas's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Sorry to rain on your parade, but this won't work. Let's put aside the fact that Lowry would never agree to a 5 year 36M deal when he could get a 4 year of the same total value...

    Your premise is based on Collison's case. It only works that way if it is an extension. If the player is a free agent, the signing bonus is limited to 15% of the total contract value (5.4M, not your 9.8M), and furthermore, is not treated as a bonus under the cap - it's cap hit is spread equally over all the years of the deal. Lowry's cap hit for the contract you describe above (even with the too big bonus) would be as follows:

    6.46, 6.79, 7.14, 7.47, 7.81

    Now, the Collison case works because a team with cap space can place that signing bonus onto the remaining years of the current contract rather than the extension years. This is because it actually isn't just an extension. If it were, the signing bonus would be limited to 15% of the contract value. Instead, it is deemed as a renegotiation of the existing deal, adding salary to the deal, and the extension adds years to the renegotiated deal.

    So OKC had an abundance of cap space that year, and signed Collison to an "extension" of 2.76M per year, but with a signing bonus of 6.52 million. Since they had the cap space, they allocated the entirety of that bonus to their current year's salary cap (by renotiating his current deal to be for 13M instead of 6). That gave him an effective salary of 4.4M per year over the extension, even though their cap hit was 1.6M less.

    Applying that case to the Raptors, you can theoretically see potential. It gives the opportunity to offer more for Lowry than his theoretical extension limit would allow, which would solve the UFA risk problem. But for it to work, the Raptors need cap space now. And they are far from that. Currently they have 68M committed. That's about 9.4M over the cap.

    Now if they wanted to offer Lowry 36M over 4 years to keep him, I think to agree to a 3 year extension he'd need more than 9M per year to do so. He could probably agree to 30M over 3 years instead of 36 over 4. Maybe that's optimistic, but I'll go with it. So that's 10M per year, which the Raptors cannot offer.

    That is, they cannot offer it based on his current salary. 30M over 3 years is a starting salary of 9.3M. That means he would need a salary of 8.65M this year to be eligible for an extension of that value. He currently makes 6.21M - that's a difference of 2.45M. That is the amount of cap space the Raps would need to clear up - see, they don't even need to front load a full signing bonus to be able to keep Lowry, just enough to make re-signing him possible. So, let's take that 2.45M off the total contract, meaning we need only sign him to a 3 year, 27.5 M deal, with a "signing bonus" of 2.5M now. Now if you iterate that a few times, you get an ideal contract extension starting at 8.72M (28.1M over 3 years) with a signing bonus of 1.91 M.

    So if the Raps can clear 1.91M in cap space, THIS YEAR, they could do it. So they would need to shed 11.35M in salary before June 30th. Waiving Salmons won't do it as his non-guarantee is for next year, not this year. Waiving Julyan Stone now would free up 0.54M. Longer you wait, the less that frees up, but that's not much anyway. Would have to be a big deal with a team well under the cap, or a deal for a player like Bynum (little late though).

    The 76ers and Bucks have loads of cap space. A couple of deals with a couple of those teams, or a few deals with less salary coming back could add up to that 11M. Trading to receive unguaranteed players like CJ Miles would be a good idea as well. Although again you have to waive them immediately to maximize your savings.
    Your posts are great. You could make a living with your basketball knowledge.

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