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Thread: Solving the Lowry conundrum and keeping current core (Vasquez, Patterson)

  1. #21
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    Actually nvm we'd only be able to get one of them.

    Lin + 1st for Salmons would be a steal but I don't think Houston would do that just to clear cap space.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Uncle_Si's Avatar
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    Quote Masai Ujiri wrote: View Post
    Actually nvm we'd only be able to get one of them.

    Lin + 1st for Salmons would be a steal but I don't think Houston would do that just to clear cap space.
    You should change your name to Bryan Colangelo

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote Wiggins wrote: View Post
    9m is too much. The last possession of the heat game shows Lowry's problem. At his heart he's not a real point guard. He's been doing ok recently but when push cones to shove he's a selfish hero-wannabe without the skills to back it up.
    Disagree completely. Lowry's one of the few players on this roster who I want taking that shot.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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  5. #24
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    If Lowry can maintain this level of play for the next few years, then one would be a fool to not want that. We're not going to draft a better PG, and we're not going to sign a better PG.

    What makes me nervous is the contract year. I'm hoping his numbers are for real.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Disagree completely. Lowry's one of the few players on this roster who I want taking that shot.
    Given they had no time outs and one crack at it, I don't think you could have asked for anything more.... other than a made 3.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  7. #26
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Disagree completely. Lowry's one of the few players on this roster who I want taking that shot.
    Even the best PG's in the league would have taken that shot.

  8. #27
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    If Lowry can maintain this level of play for the next few years, then one would be a fool to not want that. We're not going to draft a better PG, and we're not going to sign a better PG.

    What makes me nervous is the contract year. I'm hoping his numbers are for real.
    His injury history scares me more than the contract year. If he's only good for 75% of the games that get played , is he worth his raise?

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  10. #28
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    During the course of the game Lowry passed decently but when it came down to it that went out the window. He doesn't have the height or ability to separate vs a marginal pg to get a clean shot off in that situation and reverted back to typical Lowry.

  11. #29
    Raptors Republic All-Star Axel's Avatar
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    Oh Matt, I am away for 2 weeks and you start talking about resigning Lowry for 4/5 years? How many times have you said "beware the contract year"?

    At this point in his career, I don't see how you can trust Lowry to maintain his body and play for multiple seasons. Do you really want to be on the hook for Lowry in years 3+ of this deal?

    Lowry has never consistently stayed in shape (basically the #1 thing a pro athlete has to do). I'd be scared to give him anything beyond a 3 year deal (possibly plus team option) unless the final years are unguaranteed.

    Lowry is playing great right now, and if he didn't have the weight/injury issues throughout his career, then yeah, you sign him; but he has too many flags in his dossier for me to sign him long term.

    I'm also not convinced there is going to be a great market for KL when he hits free agency. Teams that could use him (Miami, Brooklyn) won't have much money to throw at him. A 3 yr 24 M deal might be enough to retain him.

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  13. #30
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    If Lowry can maintain this level of play for the next few years, then one would be a fool to not want that. We're not going to draft a better PG, and we're not going to sign a better PG.What makes me nervous is the contract year. I'm hoping his numbers are for real.
    Which is exactly why I didn't understand all the trade Lowry talk. Even if you are tanking it makes no sense to trade players you will need later on. Even tanking requires some method behind the madness. Granted, if you can't afford him then you do what you have to do, but to talk about trading him prior to discussing other options first is ridiculous.

  14. #31
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Oh Matt, I am away for 2 weeks and you start talking about resigning Lowry for 4/5 years? How many times have you said "beware the contract year"?

    At this point in his career, I don't see how you can trust Lowry to maintain his body and play for multiple seasons. Do you really want to be on the hook for Lowry in years 3+ of this deal?

    Lowry has never consistently stayed in shape (basically the #1 thing a pro athlete has to do). I'd be scared to give him anything beyond a 3 year deal (possibly plus team option) unless the final years are unguaranteed.

    Lowry is playing great right now, and if he didn't have the weight/injury issues throughout his career, then yeah, you sign him; but he has too many flags in his dossier for me to sign him long term.

    I'm also not convinced there is going to be a great market for KL when he hits free agency. Teams that could use him (Miami, Brooklyn) won't have much money to throw at him. A 3 yr 24 M deal might be enough to retain him.
    I agree.

    The whole point was ensuring he got what he felt he was owed but spreading it in a manner that doesn't handcuff the Raptors nor make it too difficult to trade. It would be an expensive year one and then a very reasonable contract thereafter.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Which is exactly why I didn't understand all the trade Lowry talk. Even if you are tanking it makes no sense to trade players you will need later on. Even tanking requires some method behind the madness. Granted, if you can't afford him then you do what you have to do, but to talk about trading him prior to discussing other options first is ridiculous.
    To be fair, I'm confident that Masai has looked at all the angles of the situation and didn't just blindly put him on the trade block. Beyond the chance of the Raptors not being able to afford Lowry that you speak of (or not wanting to pay him what he wants, however you want to word that), there is the possibility that he decides to move on and sign with another team... leaving the Raptors with nothing.

  16. #33
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    To be fair, I'm confident that Masai has looked at all the angles of the situation and didn't just blindly put him on the trade block. Beyond the chance of the Raptors not being able to afford Lowry that you speak of (or not wanting to pay him what he wants, however you want to word that), there is the possibility that he decides to move on and sign with another team... leaving the Raptors with nothing.
    For sure, but I was referring to us here on this site. I trust Masai to do what is in the best interest of the team, but here at RR, it was all trade Lowry or bust. If Lowry stays or leaves I have faith that MU will keep the team staying the course and improving in the East. Just can't picture TL and MU tanking..just hope it's not back to the treadmill.

  17. #34
    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    It really is a tough call.

    Should Masai trade him it will be an easy sell to fans should he get anything of value in return. He just needs to whisper: "booooosh"
    Last week, Deng got an extension offer of $30M for 3 years and he rejected it. We know what happened afterwards. Lowry will negotiate this in the off-season. At that time, he can sign or the team orchestrates a sign-and-trade. That's still my preference so as to not disrupt this current momentum.
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

  18. #35
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    Sorry to rain on your parade, but this won't work. Let's put aside the fact that Lowry would never agree to a 5 year 36M deal when he could get a 4 year of the same total value...

    Your premise is based on Collison's case. It only works that way if it is an extension. If the player is a free agent, the signing bonus is limited to 15% of the total contract value (5.4M, not your 9.8M), and furthermore, is not treated as a bonus under the cap - it's cap hit is spread equally over all the years of the deal. Lowry's cap hit for the contract you describe above (even with the too big bonus) would be as follows:

    6.46, 6.79, 7.14, 7.47, 7.81

    Now, the Collison case works because a team with cap space can place that signing bonus onto the remaining years of the current contract rather than the extension years. This is because it actually isn't just an extension. If it were, the signing bonus would be limited to 15% of the contract value. Instead, it is deemed as a renegotiation of the existing deal, adding salary to the deal, and the extension adds years to the renegotiated deal.

    So OKC had an abundance of cap space that year, and signed Collison to an "extension" of 2.76M per year, but with a signing bonus of 6.52 million. Since they had the cap space, they allocated the entirety of that bonus to their current year's salary cap (by renotiating his current deal to be for 13M instead of 6). That gave him an effective salary of 4.4M per year over the extension, even though their cap hit was 1.6M less.

    Applying that case to the Raptors, you can theoretically see potential. It gives the opportunity to offer more for Lowry than his theoretical extension limit would allow, which would solve the UFA risk problem. But for it to work, the Raptors need cap space now. And they are far from that. Currently they have 68M committed. That's about 9.4M over the cap.

    Now if they wanted to offer Lowry 36M over 4 years to keep him, I think to agree to a 3 year extension he'd need more than 9M per year to do so. He could probably agree to 30M over 3 years instead of 36 over 4. Maybe that's optimistic, but I'll go with it. So that's 10M per year, which the Raptors cannot offer.

    That is, they cannot offer it based on his current salary. 30M over 3 years is a starting salary of 9.3M. That means he would need a salary of 8.65M this year to be eligible for an extension of that value. He currently makes 6.21M - that's a difference of 2.45M. That is the amount of cap space the Raps would need to clear up - see, they don't even need to front load a full signing bonus to be able to keep Lowry, just enough to make re-signing him possible. So, let's take that 2.45M off the total contract, meaning we need only sign him to a 3 year, 27.5 M deal, with a "signing bonus" of 2.5M now. Now if you iterate that a few times, you get an ideal contract extension starting at 8.72M (28.1M over 3 years) with a signing bonus of 1.91 M.

    So if the Raps can clear 1.91M in cap space, THIS YEAR, they could do it. So they would need to shed 11.35M in salary before June 30th. Waiving Salmons won't do it as his non-guarantee is for next year, not this year. Waiving Julyan Stone now would free up 0.54M. Longer you wait, the less that frees up, but that's not much anyway. Would have to be a big deal with a team well under the cap, or a deal for a player like Bynum (little late though).

    The 76ers and Bucks have loads of cap space. A couple of deals with a couple of those teams, or a few deals with less salary coming back could add up to that 11M. Trading to receive unguaranteed players like CJ Miles would be a good idea as well. Although again you have to waive them immediately to maximize your savings.

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  20. #36
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    5 year, 60 million will solve Lowry problem. The man really deserve the money as he loves Toronto and is all hustle and Heart.

  21. #37
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote Jamshid wrote: View Post
    5 year, 60 million will solve Lowry problem. The man really deserve the money as he loves Toronto and is all hustle and Heart.
    That's too much. Even 10 million would be a tough pill to swallow.

    And absolutely not worth giving 5 years too. Try to get him in at a 3 year deal, or at least a deal where he or the team can opt out after 3. He might prefer that anyway if he thinks he'll be able to sign one more long-term contract after those 3 years, when he'll be 30.

  22. #38
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    That's too much. Even 10 million would be a tough pill to swallow.

    And absolutely not worth giving 5 years too. Try to get him in at a 3 year deal, or at least a deal where he or the team can opt out after 3. He might prefer that anyway if he thinks he'll be able to sign one more long-term contract after those 3 years, when he'll be 30.
    Beauty of a 3 year deal is that he is back in a contract year that much sooner

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  24. #39
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Still think it should be 2 years $20M. Or 3 year $30M with the 3rd year only having $2M guaranteed.

  25. #40
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote Jamshid wrote: View Post
    5 year, 60 million will solve Lowry problem. The man really deserve the money as he loves Toronto and is all hustle and Heart.
    He does?
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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