Can we still tank?

[Craiger]

Considering how easy the sched is over the next fourteen games, even without Lowry, I see us at much better than 4-10. Because again, we have to take assets back right? And seriously, we've been here before and ended up getting edged out at the last second by teams that had absolutely no integrity...I'm looking at you, Portland and Golden State.

Look something has happened. A winning culture has been created in Toronto. What's the potential short/long term value of that? These guys are bleeding and scrapping on a nightly basis because they want this city to see its' first significant play off run in a very long time. What do you do to the will of this team by gutting it right now? Beyond the stat sheets and the crystal balls, what kind of value in the development of Jonas and Ross can be gained if this team was allowed to be as good as they could be this year? In the biggest free agent hall in recent memory, maybe Magic Masai can get MLSE to go into the red this summer and if we do reasonably well in the playoffs...maybe somebody would consider playing here. Somebody serious.

I trust that Masai can make incremental changes to this team that will continue to make us better. Blowing this up after what they've done would continue the narrative of Toronto as a joke and not worth a free agents time. And has been said, even if we seriously defy the odds and get us a 6-8 draft pick (anything else is just a pipe dream), we have absolutely no idea who that player will eventually be. None...

Right now we are competing with and winning our share against the best teams in the NBA. Only in Toronto would they be looking to tank with this happening. Seriously.

What's happening is real, tangible. You can see it on the court. Anything else is speculation and neurotic gambling.

Bold 1 : Do we? If we do, does it have to be a player that would help right now?

Bold 2 : When did this happen, before they started winning games or after? If it happened before, how did it happen given Toronto wasn't winning? If its been since the team has started to win games, can't we fairly assume that 'winning culture' can disappear as quickly as it came around given there is no substantial basis for it, and/or it could happen to any of our competition just as quickly/easily?

Bold 3 : Was Toronto though of as any less of a 'joke' from 2006/7 on?

I don't mean to start a 'tank or not' argument here, thats not my intentions, but there seems to be this idea that Toronto "can't tank". However thats simply not true. Each passing day/game (particularily that results in a win) without question makes it harder to tank successfully (ie. get a high pick)... but this was exactly what was pointed out so many months ago.

As Slaw would say (although perhaps not in regards to tanking specifically) the best time to plant an oak tree was 50 years ago, the 2nd best time is now.

we have absolutely no idea who that player will eventually be. None...

we also have no idea who this free agent is that will somehow, someway, sign with Toronto. None....

I fail to see the difference.

[p00ka]

Good stuff, Gman.

Winning culture isn't just about wins/losses. When you've been a losing team for so long, the "culture" needed to move past the same old, has to begin in the mindset of players and the philosophies of the style of play. This culture started in training camp, not the few hours between news of the trade and the first game without Rudy. It didn't come about "quickly" in a few hours.

It's been simmering all season. Defense has been very good all year for starters. Look around the league. Winning culture starts with getting the whole team to commit to defense first. On the other end, they're running the same sets as was established from the beginning of the season. The difference is that the ball isn't getting glued to Rudy's hands more often than not, except when he often turned it over, and the simmering that's been going on all season about ball movement, unselfish, trusting your teammates, offense is finally boiling. A winning culture isn't something that happens in a few hours, and only lasts as long as a winning streak.

These guys are playing winning basketball, and it feels good. With young, driven players like DD, KL, Amir, JV on this team, they are not going to allow it to disappear any time soon. At this point, if MU were to trade Lowry for anything less that an incredible haul, by anybody's standards (seriously, what's the likelyhood? I'd love to hear what people think could happen), not only would the paying customers, who want this kind of long overdue entertainment, want his head, but it would destroy the image of the organization amongst players around the league, to say nothing of the players on the team. That winning mindset that's been instilled in these young players, and is now paying dividends, would be flushed down the toilet if a tank move was made now. Tell the players to commit to winning, and when they do, break it up? Not going to happen unless he plans on dumping the entire team.

People can massage numbers all they want to try and keep their tanking hopes alive, but MU has a LOT more than that to consider. Some people need to begin focusing on something else, because it really is too late, and that goes way beyond W/L records.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

At this point, if MU were to trade Lowry for anything less that an incredible haul, by anybody's standards (seriously, what's the likelyhood? I'd love to hear what people think could happen), not only would the paying customers, who want this kind of long overdue entertainment, want his head, but it would destroy the image of the organization amongst players around the league, to say nothing of the players on the team. That winning mindset that's been instilled in these young players, and is now paying dividends, would be flushed down the toilet if a tank move was made now. Tell the players to commit to winning, and when they do, break it up? Not going to happen unless he plans on dumping the entire team.

Most posters have been in agreement since the Gay trade that Lowry is the lynch-pin to the playoffs/tank decision that MU faces (barring other subsequent moves, of course).

There are a couple important factors at play, that all of us posters can only speculate about:

#1) Does MU view Lowry as the Raptors PG of the future?

#2) Does Lowry want to be back in Toronto?

#3) Even if the answers to #1 and #2 are "yes", are the two sides anywhere close in terms of salary expectations? Even if there's no intention of signing an extension during the season, I'd have to assume that the two sides have at least discussed the situation to get an idea where each side stands.

#4) What is the chance that Lowry walks for nothing, despite current feelings related to #1, #2 and #3?

#5) How do potential trade returns (in terms of talent, potential and finances) compare to keeping Lowry?


We all have our opinions about such matters and can try to reference 'evidence' to support our stance, but the truth is that only MU and Lowry (and his agent) know for sure.

[Masai Ujiri]

Ok people are peeved by me using February 1st. Fine.

16-17 right now. You wanna guarantee top 6 you can't win more than about 27 games or 11 for the remainder of the season based on my calculations from before.

So if we trade Lowry are we an 11-38 team? That's a 22.4% winning percentage, which is lower than every other team in the league except the Bucks. And that's if we trade Lowry within the next 5 hours.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Ok people are peeved by me using February 1st. Fine.

16-17 right now. You wanna guarantee top 6 you can't win more than about 27 games or 11 for the remainder of the season based on my calculations from before.

So if we trade Lowry are we an 11-38 team? That's a 22.4% winning percentage, which is lower than every other team in the league except the Bucks. And that's if we trade Lowry within the next 5 hours.

I think most are in agreement that tanking is very improbable, if the goal is to be somewhere in the bottom 4-6 in the standings.

If tanking means turning some current assets into future assets (Lowry being the primary focus to start with) and missing the playoffs in favor of the lottery, then that's definitely still a possibility. Highly probable? Likely not.

[stooley]

Ok people are peeved by me using February 1st. Fine.

16-17 right now. You wanna guarantee top 6 you can't win more than about 27 games or 11 for the remainder of the season based on my calculations from before.

So if we trade Lowry are we an 11-38 team? That's a 22.4% winning percentage, which is lower than every other team in the league except the Bucks. And that's if we trade Lowry within the next 5 hours.

From my impression of Vasquez so far and our previous experience with Buycks/Stone I think it's very possible we could be worse than 11-38!

But you do make a great point in this article. The door won't stay open forever!

[p00ka]

Ooops, this is in reference to post #18 from CRF

I've been seeing this "most posters have been..." a lot lately. With all due respect, my views and opinions aren't the least bit affected by what "most posters" think. I learned even before most people here were born that following the herd almost never is a wise choice. If it makes sense to me, it will do so whether most people think it or not.

Yup. I didn't suggest I know anything for sure. Just gave my opinion about a "winning culture" narrative that was raised, and subsequently brushed off as some significant come and go thing, and my opinion of how that affects any hopes of tanking that some cling to. Yup, talks with Lowry are part of the consideration too, but that wasn't the discussion. That's been bandied about often already, on multiple threads. Any thoughts on the discussion we're having about how winning culture gets created, and what it means for MU's decision making at this time.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Ooops, this is in reference to post #18 from CRF

I've been seeing this "most posters have been..." a lot lately. With all due respect, my views and opinions aren't the least bit affected by what "most posters" think. I learned even before most people here were born that following the herd almost never is a wise choice. If it makes sense to me, it will do so whether most people think it or not.

Yup. I didn't suggest I know anything for sure. Just gave my opinion about a "winning culture" narrative that was raised, and subsequently brushed off as some significant come and go thing, and my opinion of how that affects any hopes of tanking that some cling to. Yup, talks with Lowry are part of the consideration too, but that wasn't the discussion. That's been bandied about often already, on multiple threads. Any thoughts on the discussion we're having about how winning culture gets created, and what it means for MU's decision making at this time.

I think you've misunderstood me a little.

In my response to you, I specifically quoted an open question you posed, regarding the potential trading away of Lowry.

if MU were to trade Lowry for anything less that an incredible haul, by anybody's standards (seriously, what's the likelyhood? I'd love to hear what people think could happen)

I certainly wasn't brushing off the 'winning culture' aspect of your post, which I actually thought was well thought out and articulated.

The points I raised as items I assume MU has to consider when deciding Lowry's fate, take precedent over any impact on establishing/maintaining any sort of 'winning culture', IMO. For me, those items were all about the management of a particular asset.

For instance, if MU doesn't think Lowry is suited to be the team's PG of the future, of Lowry doesn't want to re-sign in Toronto, or if Lowry's asking price is beyond what MU wants to pay for him, or if a trade comes along that returns greater value than re-signing Lowry would according to MU, then I believe MU would likely make his decision based on best practices for individual asset management and long-term team-building (even if it might have a short-term impact on team chemistry or the team's winning culture).

[Axel]

Remove Lowry and roll with Vazquez/Stone/Buycks and we will likely be losing at a faster pace than anyone. This team is playing this well right now because of Lowry. We don't have another 'control the ball' player to pick up the slack and the offence will likely fall apart.

The sooner the move him, the better, but I don't think we are anywhere near a too late date. As the debate pointed out for months, the tank movement wasn't just about getting a top 3 pick, but gaining flexibility, assets and improving our 2014 pick were all considerations. If we were to flip KL for a 2015/2016 pick and a rookie scale player, we'd get no immediate help but gain assets to be used in future deals. I thought we'd get the 8th pick since day 1 and would be fine if that's what we got (Gary Harris!) as long as we position ourselves for the future.

[p00ka]

Sorry, hadn't realized that you were referring to that statement. I guess I felt that it was such a minor part of my post, that I didn't think twice about it. As i said, the "what to do with Lowry" thing has been talked about so much, I personally don't have anything new to say about it. I'm looking for new stuff to talk about, and I thought Gman made a great point, that was then brushed off as the mere mention of that term has been in so many ways. It's become far more relevant now, with the way this team is playing the right way.

That said, I'll dive back into the "what happens with lowry" concern briefly. Without writing an essay, by brief take on it is:
- yeah, anything any of us think is speculation.
- I'm not sure I'd agree that getting anything for Lowry over-rides the commitment given to these players about being a winner. As i said, it would have to be one hell of a haul to not kill the culture that's been instilled in these guys. And if it was a big enough haul to appease both paying fans and what's left on the team, it would likely not lead to much of a tank.
- MU isn't dumb, and knows that the young guys' growth is being accelerated as they play in an environment where they're playing the right way, and competitive every game. There's great value in maintaining this growth, even if Lowry walks..
- it's all speculation, but the drive and enjoyment and team chemistry I'm seeing with Lowry right now, on the floor and bench, looks a lot more than playing for a contract. It looks to me that he wants to be here and be a leading force within this group of players. Which leads to my next point.
- if one looks around the league right now, there are very few teams without a lead guard they're already committed to, and when you add a couple of very promising PGs from the draft to a couple of bottom feeders, there will be even fewer teams in the market for Lowry's services come July. I don't think there will be all that much competition for him, nor do I think anyone is likely to overpay him, unless it's one of the over-the-cap big market guys, where a S&T may return just as much as trading him now. If anybody has any ideas what teams might be going hard at KL, and why, I'd love to discuss it. I've thrown this thought out a couple of times and nobody has come forward yet.

At the end of the day, MU has been talking to Lowry's agent, coaches and players have been talking to lowry himself. They have a pretty good idea where his head's at. He seems way too emotional to hide anything for very long. Unless he wants out, I doubt MU is going to kill whats going on, for just some unknown draft pick 3 years from now. As I said, the haul would have to be a great one, otherwise he could easily decide that jeopardizing the growth and spirit of the rest of the team isn't worth it.

That's my take on the what-to-do-with-Lowry discussion. Since we're all just speculating and going by observations only, there really isn't much to say that hasn't been repeated many times already. We all have our views, and they've all been stated. Now that includes what I feel is a significant "winning culture" factor that MU has to consider if he's seriously thinking of moving Lowry, as opposed to it being as meaningless as Craiger thinks.