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Thread: Why I think comparing this sqaud to the 2006-07 squad is a bad comparison

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    Default Why I think comparing this sqaud to the 2006-07 squad is a bad comparison

    Hi all! I have heard this current squad compared to our last team to win the Atlantic title back in 2006-2007 and I just don't see it. In another thread I wrote about it but wanted to hear the communities thoughts on it. I have a feeling I'm not the only one who thinks the comparison is mostly superficial. Here's what I wrote:

    I have heard this a lot but just don't see it. Especially in terms of two things: age and defence.

    Let's start with defence. Back then we had Chris Bosh as our elite offensive option and Jose Calderon as our starting PG. Chris Bosh could score at will at times but I would say that, overall, he was a below average defender. When you have a below average defender at the rim which is the most efficient place to score from, this is not a good thing. Jose's defence has already been talked about tons and how his lack of defence constantly put the team in positions where they would have to make defensive rotations and teams can find gaps more easily that way.

    Contrast then with now. Our PG is Lowry who is a very strong defender and helps our D a lot by limiting penetration. Our elite offensive option in Derozan(less dominant than Bosh was as a scorer for sure) isn't strong defensively but at least its not at the rim and it has less of an overall impact to keep him on the floor as long as we have the guys down low to hold things down.

    That team back then had enough D to keep them in games(good ol' Garbo and Parker helped there) but won with their offence. Whereas, overall, our current team knows how to defend and it isn't so reliant on one or two key pieces coming up big at big moments.

    Next let's talk about Age/upside. The difference makers we brought in that year were Nesterovic, Parker, and Garbo. Alongside those Jose also showed great growth and skill. The problem with those first three especially is they were already at or past their prime. You knew what Parker and Nesterovic gave you wouldn't be around too much longer. On top of that you knew that with all of these players(outside the emergence of Bargnani and Calderon) what you saw, was what you got.

    Contrast that with now. TRoss is our Parker(both for shooting and defence) except with way more athleticism and upside due to his youth. Similarly Jonas has a similar impact to Rasho but again with more athleticism and upside due to youth. Even Amir(our teams version of GArbo) is younger although both are pretty much the same player in their respective years(both are dirty work players who are who they are by now). So with these comparisons, all that's left is Derozan and Lowry matching up against Bosh and Calderon and for me that's an overall wash.

    The big difference and hope for that 2006 team was the emergence of our #1 pick Bargnani, He alone was our hope for internal growth. Our team now has that developmental hope for Ross AND Jonas and knows that even our "they are what they are" players are young enough and talented enough that we can move forward with this group(you know that you don't need to worry about replacing guys like DD,Lowry, and Amir as they have lots of game left in them).

    Also, back then(or was it soon after?) we commited max dollars for a non-max player in Bosh which made our cap situation tougher whereas we don't have those same problems with our current team.

    Anyways, this is how I see it, would love to hear how you guys view things differently!

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    I think the comparison is made because of the circumstances moreso than the specific players:

    1. 2006: New saviour GM.
    2013: New saviour GM.

    2. 2006: Beleagured head coach in last year of deal.
    2013: Beleagured head coach in last year of deal.

    3. 2006: Poor start.
    2013: Poor start.

    4. 2006: Infusion of veterans via FA changes dynamics.
    2013: Infusion of veterans via trade changes dynamics.

    5. 2006: Many fans wondering if team needed to continue rebuild to land a star beside Bosh.
    2013: Many fans want to tank to try and land a star.

    6. 2006: Playoff team after years of futility
    2013: Likely Playoff team after years of futility.

    Of course the makeup of the teams is different in many ways but the comparison from a big picture perspective is apt.

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    Interesting thought. The players were significantly different in many ways, but I can see where you can draw some parallels. I always thought Rasho's game was under rated. I think Garbo was a smarter player than Amir, taking nothing away from Amir, but Garbo always seemed to be where he was supposed to be. Parker was an elite defender, as I recall. Consistently playing against the other teams best players,

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    Yeah, I see all that and understand it. But I have seen people use that team as a reason for why our current team is doomed to mediocrity like that team was. My argument is that the way these two teams are constructed are quite different especially when looking at the potential to grow into a contender from these starting points. Yup, circumstances are eerily similar but when you look at the team things are quite different!

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    I share your views concerning Garbo Puffer. But, I will also say what Amir brings on offence is miles ahead of Garbo(if I recall his game was hitting open jumpers and driving off of pump fakes/getting garbage buckets). I think the 2006-07 was doomed for mediocrity based solely on Chris Bosh and his defensive deficiencies(much similarly how I view Carmelo). You know you can win with that kind of game, but you can never contend. Also, Calderon was never an answer for us and everyone knew it, solely based on his defence. With Derozan and Lowry I feel we have avoided both pitfalls and therefore have much more hope(some might disagree but I think Lowry can definitely be a PG on a contending team).

    The player we have to be most careful with is DD. I love the guy, but if we ever give him max or close to max money we are making a huge mistake(In my mind he is like a Bosh, he can help us win but he can't be who we build around).

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    Yeah, I don't get it either CGarbs. Well, I do I guess. I see it as grasping at anecdotal straws to promote the tank, as in we'll be on the same treadmill because blah, blah. Yet as you said, this team's make-up is entirely different. Not anything to do with player on player comparisons of current skills, but all about growth potential of young players. Take the starting 5, add 2Pat, and that's a very young base to build upon, the ceiling of which nobody can accurately predict. Will it be the core of a contender? Nobody can accurately say one way or the other, but to equate the current situation to that one, as "same old story as last time", is not well reasoned.

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    Quote CGarbs wrote: View Post
    Hi all! I have heard this current squad compared to our last team to win the Atlantic title back in 2006-2007 and I just don't see it. In another thread I wrote about it but wanted to hear the communities thoughts on it. I have a feeling I'm not the only one who thinks the comparison is mostly superficial. Here's what I wrote:

    I have heard this a lot but just don't see it. Especially in terms of two things: age and defence.

    Let's start with defence. Back then we had Chris Bosh as our elite offensive option and Jose Calderon as our starting PG. Chris Bosh could score at will at times but I would say that, overall, he was a below average defender. When you have a below average defender at the rim which is the most efficient place to score from, this is not a good thing. Jose's defence has already been talked about tons and how his lack of defence constantly put the team in positions where they would have to make defensive rotations and teams can find gaps more easily that way.

    Contrast then with now. Our PG is Lowry who is a very strong defender and helps our D a lot by limiting penetration. Our elite offensive option in Derozan(less dominant than Bosh was as a scorer for sure) isn't strong defensively but at least its not at the rim and it has less of an overall impact to keep him on the floor as long as we have the guys down low to hold things down.

    That team back then had enough D to keep them in games(good ol' Garbo and Parker helped there) but won with their offence. Whereas, overall, our current team knows how to defend and it isn't so reliant on one or two key pieces coming up big at big moments.

    Next let's talk about Age/upside. The difference makers we brought in that year were Nesterovic, Parker, and Garbo. Alongside those Jose also showed great growth and skill. The problem with those first three especially is they were already at or past their prime. You knew what Parker and Nesterovic gave you wouldn't be around too much longer. On top of that you knew that with all of these players(outside the emergence of Bargnani and Calderon) what you saw, was what you got.

    Contrast that with now. TRoss is our Parker(both for shooting and defence) except with way more athleticism and upside due to his youth. Similarly Jonas has a similar impact to Rasho but again with more athleticism and upside due to youth. Even Amir(our teams version of GArbo) is younger although both are pretty much the same player in their respective years(both are dirty work players who are who they are by now). So with these comparisons, all that's left is Derozan and Lowry matching up against Bosh and Calderon and for me that's an overall wash.

    The big difference and hope for that 2006 team was the emergence of our #1 pick Bargnani, He alone was our hope for internal growth. Our team now has that developmental hope for Ross AND Jonas and knows that even our "they are what they are" players are young enough and talented enough that we can move forward with this group(you know that you don't need to worry about replacing guys like DD,Lowry, and Amir as they have lots of game left in them).

    Also, back then(or was it soon after?) we commited max dollars for a non-max player in Bosh which made our cap situation tougher whereas we don't have those same problems with our current team.

    Anyways, this is how I see it, would love to hear how you guys view things differently!
    Where is Ford in your analysis/comparison? He was the starting PG back in 06-07 and was the engine that drove that team.

    Obviously things didn't work out so well for that team, primarily since none of the young players (ie: Bosh, Bargnani, Ford, Graham, Humphries) blossomed as expected. That should speak volumes about relying on a capped-out (if Lowry re-signs) young roster that is winning in a historically bad conference.

    The biggest difference maker between then and now is MU. I don't expect him to fall into the same trap that BC did, when he believed that team was a title contender as constructed, after winning the division.

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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Where is Ford in your analysis/comparison? He was the starting PG back in 06-07 and was the engine that drove that team.

    Obviously things didn't work out so well for that team, primarily since none of the young players (ie: Bosh, Bargnani, Ford, Graham, Humphries) blossomed as expected. That should speak volumes about relying on a capped-out (if Lowry re-signs) young roster that is winning in a historically bad conference.

    The biggest difference maker between then and now is MU. I don't expect him to fall into the same trap that BC did, when he believed that team was a title contender as constructed, after winning the division.
    I don't understand this line of reasoning either. Whatever route was taken, this organization wasn't going to have a "contender" in a year, any more than it could have happened in months. Looking ahead, IF MU wishes to chase a FA this coming Summer, he could still have a chunk of room to do so BEFORE signing Lowry (such maneuvering happens), and that's even if nothing else happens that he can clear salary off the books. He sure did wonders with that albatross of Gay's contract.

    Whether that happens or not, 1 year later, the organization currently only has $21M on the books to 4 players (DD,JV,Ross,Novak), so there's all kinds of cap flexibility to work with, even with signing Lowry to a reasonable contract.

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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    I don't understand this line of reasoning either. Whatever route was taken, this organization wasn't going to have a "contender" in a year, any more than it could have happened in months. Looking ahead, IF MU wishes to chase a FA this coming Summer, he could still have a chunk of room to do so BEFORE signing Lowry (such maneuvering happens), and that's even if nothing else happens that he can clear salary off the books. He sure did wonders with that albatross of Gay's contract.

    Whether that happens or not, 1 year later, the organization currently only has $21M on the books to 4 players (DD,JV,Ross,Novak), so there's all kinds of cap flexibility to work with, even with signing Lowry to a reasonable contract.
    With regards to signing someone else before Lowry do remember that the Raptors have to use his cap hold (which is approx $9M) to add to their cap space. Otherwise they would have to renounce him and with that his bird rights (and therefore most likely him).

    I'm not the most savvy cap expert here but it looks like they will have $48M committed on the books (assuming they keep Amir, and waive Salmons, Patterson and GV). And that does not include Lowry's cap hold. With his cap hold.. we are looking at $57M... and if the salary cap is about $62M that only leaves about the $5M for a free agent which isn't really much.

    Cap experts please correct my math if I am wrong

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    Yeah, forgot about Ford momentarily. My most lasting memory of that squad was a short lob pass from Calderon to Bosh that got picked off and so my brain goes to Calderon as the PG. Yeah, Ford was another good piece but, in my mind, was another calderon; pretty good, but not good enough as a contender. As far as capped out; Landry Fields is making 8.5 mil next year and is clearly not part of the core(or even rotation!). You can get a good solid NBAer for that money, combine that with getting rid of other movable parts and you can get a GREAT player to add to this growing team.

    Of course if Lowry walks we are significantly further back as I can't see any other real possibilities to fill that important PG slot.

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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    I don't understand this line of reasoning either. Whatever route was taken, this organization wasn't going to have a "contender" in a year, any more than it could have happened in months. Looking ahead, IF MU wishes to chase a FA this coming Summer, he could still have a chunk of room to do so BEFORE signing Lowry (such maneuvering happens), and that's even if nothing else happens that he can clear salary off the books. He sure did wonders with that albatross of Gay's contract.

    Whether that happens or not, 1 year later, the organization currently only has $21M on the books to 4 players (DD,JV,Ross,Novak), so there's all kinds of cap flexibility to work with, even with signing Lowry to a reasonable contract.
    2014-15
    - DeRozan: $9.5
    - Johnson: $7.0
    - Fields: $6.25
    - Hayes: $5.96
    - Valanciunas: $3.68
    - Novak: $3.45
    - Ross: $2.79
    - Salmons: $1M guaranteed ($7.0 full)
    - Hansborough: $1M guaranteed ($3.33 full)
    - Lowry (cap hold): $9.32
    - Patterson (QO / cap hold): $7.76
    - Vasquez (QO / cap hold): $5.38

    TOTAL: $71.42M* (if Salmons & Hansborough are not bought-out and no cap holds are renounced)

    TOTAL: $63.09M* (if Salmons & Hansborough are bought-out and no cap holds are renounced)

    TOTAL: $49.95M* (if Salmons & Hansborough are bought-out and Patterson & Vasquez are renounced)

    * a cap hold would also be added to the total, to account for the 1st round draft pick
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Fri Jan 10th, 2014 at 05:54 PM.

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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    With regards to signing someone else before Lowry do remember that the Raptors have to use his cap hold (which is approx $9M) to add to their cap space. Otherwise they would have to renounce him and with that his bird rights (and therefore most likely him).

    I'm not the most savvy cap expert here but it looks like they will have $48M committed on the books (assuming they keep Amir, and waive Salmons, Patterson and GV). And that does not include Lowry's cap hold. With his cap hold.. we are looking at $57M... and if the salary cap is about $62M that only leaves about the $5M for a free agent which isn't really much.

    Cap experts please correct my math if I am wrong
    Could well be the case. I'm no CBA/Cap expert, nor do I ever intend to be. My primary point wasn't for this summer anyway. The point was that this "cap problem" situation is short lived, even if nothing else happens. We've got a lot of short term contracts, and NO long term problems at all!!! Unless one thinks a non-tank means shoot for the moon this year or next. That was never the case. I believe MU said something about 2015 as the year his planning was based around. Signing Lowry to, let's say $9M, does not saddle this team's cap at all in 2015.

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    DanH had a good post somewhere concerning dealing with Lowry and Amir and still having some cap flexibility. Also, as I pointed out elsewhere, two things: MLSE is throwing a $100 million at TFC for two players, so don't discount them spending on the basketball team into lux tax territory and, two, don't assume that Derozan, Lowry, Amir, Val and Ross will all be the "core" beyond this year. All of those guys are movable, along with the first rounders Toronto has in its pocket.

    Just saying that people are making a lot of assumptions about the future based on 15 games.

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    People are making to much assumptions on how the roster will look beyond this year

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    I also want to say that we made a lot of bad moves following that year which killed a lot of possible improvements. I made a thread similar to this a while ago.

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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    I think the comparison is made because of the circumstances moreso than the specific players:

    1. 2006: New saviour GM.
    2013: New saviour GM.

    2. 2006: Beleagured head coach in last year of deal.
    2013: Beleagured head coach in last year of deal.

    3. 2006: Poor start.
    2013: Poor start.

    4. 2006: Infusion of veterans via FA changes dynamics.
    2013: Infusion of veterans via trade changes dynamics.

    5. 2006: Many fans wondering if team needed to continue rebuild to land a star beside Bosh.
    2013: Many fans want to **** to try and land a star.

    6. 2006: Playoff team after years of futility
    2013: Likely Playoff team after years of futility.

    Of course the makeup of the teams is different in many ways but the comparison from a big picture perspective is apt.

    The comparison with the 2006/07 team is definetely more situational/team building than player based. One can always find difference between players and rosters, even comparible players and rosters, but the entire situation is eeriely similar. (I'd also add terrible east/atlantic division to that list)

    Just a few tidbits to the OP:

    - Toronto in 2006/07 had a 103.2 DRTG definetely below (err above... well you know what I mean) the 99.9 we see today, but it was still good for 12th in the league that year. Ofcourse the difference being the Raptors offense that year which ranked tied for 5th overall at 106.5 (vs 102.5 today) *ok just noticing you mentioned this

    - the starting line up today is younger than the 2006/07 starters by about 3 years - and this includes Rasho who only played 21 minutes a game in 06/07. (He was a starter, but played less than the back up Bargnani at 25 min), but the most used players (top 10, although I will say who the 'top 10' are is relatively questionable and relative right now) were actually younger in 2006/07. But more to the point Ford was 23, Bosh 22, Jose 25, Bargnani 21, Hump 21, Graham 24. (none of that includes Tucker or Slokar at 21 and 23 respectively)

    - Bosh never received 'max dollars' per se. He received, if I'm not mistaken, the max for a player coming off their rookie deal at that time. But those aren't quite the same. He averaged 14 mil over 3 years. Given his quality of play, age and years of experience I think thats a reasonable deal. Give him 18-20 mil, we may be having a different discussion ofcourse.

    To me the differences really come down to few main things:

    - I'm not sure if this will make sense but, the 2006/07 team was a bit deeper in the shallow bench (with Mo Pete and Jose coming off the bench) and better at the very top (ie. Bosh). This current team is bit more well rounded.

    - Since the Gay trade, Casey has been running an almost 'playoff' like line up - heavy minutes for the starters, steady back up minutes for Salmons and Patterson, Vasquez getting some minutes (and dropping)... everyone else almost irrelevant (although used for spot minutes). Its essentially an 8 man line up, probably 9 when Hansborough is healthy. In 2006/07 there were only 2 players who averaged more than 30 minutes a game (Bosh and Parker), but 10 players over 20. That team was a 10 man line up + a handful of spot minutes

    - now ofcourse the big one - Bargnani. This to me is the significant difference. The former GM married himself to a player, and a player that was not particularily good (in fact I'd argue particularily bad), which had serious short and long term effects. I'm not going to assume Masai is married to anyone here, but even if we do for sake of argument, there is no one on this roster that I think that shows the level of liable play Bargs did. This is a double edged sword though in some respects... Colangelo marrying himself to a liability hurt the teams future development/improvement. At the same time, there was no shortage of fans who thought there was enourmous potential there... much like they do some on this roster. Again i don't think anyone here is 'bargnani'-ish, but its still a warning that potential is just an idea and potential doesn't win you games.

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    Nice write up Craiger! Many good points and also you reminded me of the situation a bit better. Just a few comments:

    In your age comparisons I was actually a bit surprised to see the age rundown back then and forgot the potential for growth in these players back then. That said, I don't think I would put Graham or Humphries on that list. I know there were a few supporters of each but for me at least I never thought either would be a significant piece moving forward. Yes Bosh at 14mil is reasonable considering his dominance on offence, and at 22 still time for D to come. My outlook on Bosh was definitely colored by his later years but you are right, at the time the potential and hope was there(I was definitely in the camp that didn't want to resign him to a max deal later on). Ford and Jose was definatetly an interesting case. Because of Ford's subpar shot I didn't actually expect any more growth from him(I thought when he came here he was pretty much who he was as a player), whereas Jose was more of an unknown. Both I saw as complimentary players that are needed on good teams but not as top-tier talent. Bargs, as you say, was the key difference. He was supposed to be our future impact player. Much in the way we look at JV now we looked at Bargs then.

    Just for fun this is how I would view the similarities on a player matchup basis(as you say, always a flawed practice but always also fun to do):

    Potential:
    Bargs vs. JV -both high draft picks who were to be key pieces in the future, Both have grown slower than many fans would like and still have big weaknesses in their game. We found out that Bargs was never to be a top-tier talent, if this is all JV turns out to be then he is similarly not a top tier talent. Your guess is as good as mine as to how JV will develop but right now he is having more of an impact because of the way he plays the game. JV changes shots on D and is a solid rebounder and he can still be productive even without the ball running through him. Bargs, on the other hand, needed to be scoring and on the perimeter to be productive.

    Bosh vs. DD- This comparison is due to being the guy that plays run through. Bosh was(or would develop into at least) a dominant scorer. I don't know how many time I saw Bosh in the high post hold the ball for like 10 seconds and then destroy whoever was guarding him. DD is a way less scary player. Both had average D at best. DD's offence comes within the flow of the offence, Whereas Bosh's wasn't.

    Garbo/Parker vs. Lowry/Amir -Maybe a weird comparison but I think they fit. Parker was our top guard defender and Amir was our garbage man effort D down low. Both Parker and Lowry were expected to carry some of the scoring load. I think both Amir and Lowry are offensive upgrades over their counterparts.

    Ford and Jose vs TRoss -these players are all in the same group for me in terms of expectations. They all have an above average skill, but I expect them to be complimentary pieces in the end. Whats funny about TRoss is I think it might be a mentality thing. He's got speed, athletisicm, shot, and D but can he put it all together? With Ford you had speed(can't remember his D though) but with his shot you didn't expect much. With Jose you had a great shot and passing but you didn't expect much elsewhere.

    MoPete vs. Salmons -both gave a bit of O and solid D of the bench.

    I agree with your assessment of this team bring more well rounded, and that team being top heavy but better bench. I also agree that potential is only that until it is realized.

    Our current team is also constructed more traditionally. Lowry can match up with any PG in this league, whereas Ford and Jose made up the difference by not having any drop off in PG play throughout the entire game. DD is our wing scorer who can create a shot if need be, whereas it is difficult for most post players to be successful in this way(as it was for Bosh). Lowry also does this for us, whereas I think TJ was the guy that this was left to back then. DD or Lowry are upgrades in that situation. Our future Big has future impact not only on O but D as well. Also, being a traditional Big it balances the floor better with the other players in terms of offence. Both teams had the floor spacers with some athleticism in Parker/TRoss. Both had garbage men in Garbo/Amir(with Amir having great offence in midrange jumpers and P&R that maybe it is unfair to call him a garbage man?).

    Anyways, just more ramblings/thoughts.

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