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Thread: What If We Don't Retain Lowry This Summer?

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    Administrator Dr. James Naismith's Avatar
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    Default What If We Don't Retain Lowry This Summer?

    I guess losing to the Celtics last night has taken a little of the wind from behind our sails this morning seeing how things are unusually quiet. Anyhow, this isn't a discussion about Lowry (we already have a handful of threads about him at the moment), but more about what our back-up plan will be if we aren't able to bring him back next season. Just curious to know what members opinions are about moving forward sans Kyle Lowry.

    Thoughts?

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    The first options that jump to mind would be:

    A) Target a point guard in the draft, hope that they can step in and be serviceable right off the bat and supplement the position with either a re-signed Vasquez, one of Buycks/Stone, or a stop-gap type of guy you get this summer like a Hinrich or Livingston.

    B) Grab one of the aforementioned stop-gap free agents (Hinrich, Livingston,Harris) and patch together enough minutes at the position with Vasquez/Buycks/Stone to hopefully keep the team's head above water.

    C) Explore a trade for a point guard.

    The first scenario would be my preferred option but has the highest amount of variance; will there be a non-point guard left on the board that Ujiri will feel he 'has' to pick? what point guards will be left when it's our time to draft? what type of quality minutes can you give a non-lottery PG in their first year?

    It's a pretty sobering proposition when you think about it. As great as the recent run has been, the wheels could come off again pretty quickly this summer based on only one or two things. I think that's why some people still question whether this success is sustainable.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star KazanTheMan's Avatar
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    The first options that jump to mind would be:

    A) Target a point guard in the draft, hope that they can step in and be serviceable right off the bat and supplement the position with either a re-signed Vasquez, one of Buycks/Stone, or a stop-gap type of guy you get this summer like a Hinrich or Livingston.

    B) Grab one of the aforementioned stop-gap free agents (Hinrich, Livingston,Harris) and patch together enough minutes at the position with Vasquez/Buycks/Stone to hopefully keep the team's head above water.

    C) Explore a trade for a point guard.

    The first scenario would be my preferred option but has the highest amount of variance; will there be a non-point guard left on the board that Ujiri will feel he 'has' to pick? what point guards will be left when it's our time to draft? what type of quality minutes can you give a non-lottery PG in their first year?

    It's a pretty sobering proposition when you think about it. As great as the recent run has been, the wheels could come off again pretty quickly this summer based on only one or two things. I think that's why some people still question whether this success is sustainable.
    What he said.. haha.
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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    The first options that jump to mind would be:

    A) Target a point guard in the draft, hope that they can step in and be serviceable right off the bat and supplement the position with either a re-signed Vasquez, one of Buycks/Stone, or a stop-gap type of guy you get this summer like a Hinrich or Livingston.

    B) Grab one of the aforementioned stop-gap free agents (Hinrich, Livingston,Harris) and patch together enough minutes at the position with Vasquez/Buycks/Stone to hopefully keep the team's head above water.

    C) Explore a trade for a point guard.

    The first scenario would be my preferred option but has the highest amount of variance; will there be a non-point guard left on the board that Ujiri will feel he 'has' to pick? what point guards will be left when it's our time to draft? what type of quality minutes can you give a non-lottery PG in their first year?

    It's a pretty sobering proposition when you think about it. As great as the recent run has been, the wheels could come off again pretty quickly this summer based on only one or two things. I think that's why some people still question whether this success is sustainable.
    i HIGHLY doubt we're gonna find a serviceable point guard that high in the draft that will act as a starter that could even remotely replicate lowrys play as of late. altogether with the horrible backup pg situation we're still in, i'm not seeing the light on this one. i mean, who do we have to mentor him? vasquez? stone?? fuck no.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    i HIGHLY doubt we're gonna find a serviceable point guard that high in the draft that will act as a starter that could even remotely replicate lowrys play as of late. altogether with the horrible backup pg situation we're still in, i'm not seeing the light on this one. i mean, who do we have to mentor him? vasquez? stone?? fuck no.
    I agree with this for the most part, hence my final paragraph. Lost in all the recent rah-rah'ing and pseudo contender talk, is that we're staring a pretty big step backwards in the face if Lowry a) doesn't end up back here next season or even b) he DOES end up back here and reverts back to something closer to his first seven seasons.

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    Default He cost a first round draft pick so a sign or sign and trade is needed

    Explore a trade for a point guard.

    Let's NOT forget that Kyle cost the team a first round draft pick soooooo I want at least a first rounder back in trade for his contract which the Raps should negotiate right now.

    For example,

    Sign him for $10 M/yr. for three years and use him or trade him. Don't worry about the money - it didn't stop Sacramento trading for Rudy Gay who was obviously over paid in a sign and trade years ago.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Since I'm not even sold on bringing him back long term, drafting a talented PG this year is #1 priority.

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    Administrator Dr. James Naismith's Avatar
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    A) Target a point guard in the draft, hope that they can step in and be serviceable right off the bat and supplement the position with either a re-signed Vasquez, one of Buycks/Stone, or a stop-gap type of guy you get this summer like a Hinrich or Livingston.
    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Since I'm not even sold on bringing him back long term, drafting a talented PG this year is #1 priority.
    Assuming we're out of the lottery and have a mid to late 1st round selection, who do people like as that possible PG that we draft? Outside of the obvious upcoming talents in this summer's draft, I really haven't paid attention to college this year.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Dr. James Naismith wrote: View Post
    Assuming we're out of the lottery and have a mid to late 1st round selection, who do people like as that possible PG that we draft? Outside of the obvious upcoming talents in this summer's draft, I really haven't paid attention to college this year.
    I'd start by reading the 2014 draft thread

    Zach Lavine is currently projected to go anywhere from 10th to 20th (17th on SI's big board today) and projects similar to Russell Westbrook (super athletic attacking PG).

    Shabazz Napier from UConn could be there at 20 and a good option.

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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    I'd start by reading the 2014 draft thread

    Zach Lavine is currently projected to go anywhere from 10th to 20th (17th on SI's big board today) and projects similar to Russell Westbrook (super athletic attacking PG).

    Shabazz Napier from UConn could be there at 20 and a good option.

    There is no chance that LaVine falls to 15-20 and you wouldn't want him running your point last year as he doesn't even start for UCLA. Like his game, but he would be learning to run the point on the fly in the NBA. That's tough.

    If Raps were to draft Napier with their first round pick, that would be a waste of a first rounder. Napier can run the point but he projects more as a servicable backup pg in the league.

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    Quote Dr. James Naismith wrote: View Post
    Assuming we're out of the lottery and have a mid to late 1st round selection, who do people like as that possible PG that we draft? Outside of the obvious upcoming talents in this summer's draft, I really haven't paid attention to college this year.
    Tyler Ennis
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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    There's quite a few good PG prospects supposed to come out in the draft.

    If they actually do is another story.

    I'd package both our second rounders and first to move up and grab Ennis. Hometown kid yadda yadda yadda but the fact is dude can ball. He's one of the most intriguing point guard prospects i've seen in a while.
    @jerboat

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    Blow it up. Lowry's the engine that drives this thing. Even if the team is as good as it seems of late (with the obvious exception of last night), without Lowry it all falls apart. So if he moves on, trade DD, trade Amir, trade Salmons for a bad contract and a pick, same for Hansbrough, draft BPA with our middling pick and **** hard for next year. A late start, but necessary at that point. With a couple good picks in 2015, hopefully the team looks promising enough (our high pick plus a couple middling-to-late first rounders or prospects from the trades, hopefully solid player from this year's pick, Ross and JV) to lure a max money guy or two to make that jump to the playoffs in time for the 2016 all star game. Or if that's not a concern (I'd bet it is), use 2015 cap space to take a couple shots at RFA's, take another year near the bottom, and blow the real cap room in 2016 on Durant to play with our top picks, prospects, RFA signing, and a mature JV and Ross.

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    Raptors Republic Starter bryan colangelo's Avatar
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    This is my thinking as well. Lowry is pretty critical to the composition of the starting 5. If they can't resign him or find anyone even comparable at a reasonable value, they should consider cashing their chips in after a strong playoff run. You'd probably get a respectable haul.

    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Blow it up. Lowry's the engine that drives this thing. Even if the team is as good as it seems of late (with the obvious exception of last night), without Lowry it all falls apart. So if he moves on, trade DD, trade Amir, trade Salmons for a bad contract and a pick, same for Hansbrough, draft BPA with our middling pick and **** hard for next year. A late start, but necessary at that point. With a couple good picks in 2015, hopefully the team looks promising enough (our high pick plus a couple middling-to-late first rounders or prospects from the trades, hopefully solid player from this year's pick, Ross and JV) to lure a max money guy or two to make that jump to the playoffs in time for the 2016 all star game. Or if that's not a concern (I'd bet it is), use 2015 cap space to take a couple shots at RFA's, take another year near the bottom, and blow the real cap room in 2016 on Durant to play with our top picks, prospects, RFA signing, and a mature JV and Ross.

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    Quote bryan colangelo wrote: View Post
    This is my thinking as well. Lowry is pretty critical to the composition of the starting 5. If they can't resign him or find anyone even comparable at a reasonable value, they should consider cashing their chips in after a strong playoff run. You'd probably get a respectable haul.
    Can't trade him after the deadline though. So it's playoff run or trade Lowry - no way to do both.

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    Raptors Republic Starter bryan colangelo's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Can't trade him after the deadline though. So it's playoff run or trade Lowry - no way to do both.
    You (and many other people on this board) are operating under the assumption that Lowry has high value on the trade market right now.

    That's simply not true because of Lowry's contract situation. No teams want to give up prospects or picks for an expiring contract. And if all you can get is a expiring contract or a mediocre player in return (Lowry is currently underpaid) than what's really the point in trading him? You could rationalize it by ****ing but as already noted, ****ing this season is abnormally difficult due to how horrible the bottom half of the league is playing this year.

    You're better off keeping him in order to improve the team and inflate the value of all the other players. He makes the other players look and play better. Let him, and sell the other players high during an off-season when a lot of bad teams will be willing to overpay for a quick fix.

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    Quote bryan colangelo wrote: View Post
    You (and many other people on this board) are operating under the assumption that Lowry has high value on the trade market right now.

    That's simply not true because of Lowry's contract situation. No teams want to give up prospects or picks for an expiring contract. And if all you can get is a expiring contract or a mediocre player in return (Lowry is currently underpaid) than what's really the point in trading him? You could rationalize it by ****ing but as already noted, ****ing this season is abnormally difficult due to how horrible the bottom half of the league is playing this year.

    You're better off keeping him in order to improve the team and inflate the value of all the other players. He makes the other players look and play better. Let him, and sell the other players high during an off-season when a lot of bad teams will be willing to overpay for a quick fix.
    I think the assumption is that Lowry has more value than what you're insinuating. An example would be the rumored Knicks trade, which was well before Lowry's performance really took off. IF MU has reason to believe that Lowry won't be coming back (either because of Lowry's choice or salary demands), then any net-positive trade would be better for the long-term interests of this team. Obviously you don't trade him (and sacrifice playoffs this season) for garbage, or just to ****, as you mentioned.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Blow it up. Lowry's the engine that drives this thing. Even if the team is as good as it seems of late (with the obvious exception of last night), without Lowry it all falls apart. So if he moves on, trade DD, trade Amir, trade Salmons for a bad contract and a pick, same for Hansbrough, draft BPA with our middling pick and **** hard for next year. A late start, but necessary at that point. With a couple good picks in 2015, hopefully the team looks promising enough (our high pick plus a couple middling-to-late first rounders or prospects from the trades, hopefully solid player from this year's pick, Ross and JV) to lure a max money guy or two to make that jump to the playoffs in time for the 2016 all star game. Or if that's not a concern (I'd bet it is), use 2015 cap space to take a couple shots at RFA's, take another year near the bottom, and blow the real cap room in 2016 on Durant to play with our top picks, prospects, RFA signing, and a mature JV and Ross.
    Beautiful, I agree with this plan 100%. I sure hope they sign Lowry though, would much rather see this group kept together.

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    Good article on Tyler Ennis here: http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/po...n-is-unmatched
    He looks like someone we could get based on draft position and non-lottery picks are cheap, which will be a huge bonus when JV and Ross finish their rookie contracts. And I love the idea of Canadians on the team from a marketing perspective.

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    There are a lot of options as have been outlined by posters before me, so I would just speculate about what will happen instead.

    As has been reported, the Raptors have taken Lowry off the trade block, so going forward the only option is to sign him over the summer. As this thread is about what happens if he does not sign with us you would have to assume that not trading him means MU only has an intent to compete and not blow it up or to not look for a PG in the draft, as a rookie PG rarely steps in and is NBA ready. That leaves free agent signings and trades as the only possibilities, but since there aren't any upgrades at PG in free agency it really only leaves trades.

    There are 3 injured PG's, out there that would improve our team when healthy and are 2 are on teams that have blown it up or may do so. Rondo, Rose, and Westbrook. Rondo seems like the one that would be most attainable, as Celtics really aren't bashful about ****ing and Rondo hurts that. He's also known to create issues when he's not happy, so how long will he be happy with losing. Rose is coming off two season ending injuries, so Chicago which seems like a really cheap organization for being in a big market may decide to blow it up. They've already sent Deng on his way and anyone they draft will not have the same impact as Deng for a few years (if they do at all). Other than Rose being the home town kid, it makes sense for Chicago to trade him and blow it up. Lastly, Westbrook too has suffered a second injury, and OKC's window to win a championship is closing because of it, though not completely closed like Chicago's. How long does OKC, a small market team wait for Westbrook to get healthy, or do they do the prudent thing and sell off Westbrook and his near max contract for players that could help them make a title run?

    Those are my picks. I think Raptors are nearly in the mode to go big or go home.

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