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Thread: Solutions to backup PG spot

  1. #21
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    Is it me or has Fields basically become an expensive version of James Johnson? Another failed venture by Mr. Colangelo.
    your pal,
    ebrian

  2. #22
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    Vasquez is really not as bad as he's shown. The problem is the construction of the second unit, and the overall team to an extent. This can be easily seen with USG% & ORTG. Usage-wise, second unit guys are: Patterson (18.7%, 112 ORTG), Salmons (13.2%, 110 ORTG), Hayes (11.6%, 101 ORTG), Fields (12.7%, 96 ORTG), Hanborough (14.7%, 117) and then Vasquez at a whopping 24.9% @ 89 ORTG.

    So what's happening is that none of these bench guys can even carry their own offensive load (20% USG), so Vasquez ends up getting the ball back and having to create offense at the end of the clock, or hurl up a desperation 3-pointer. At about 20% USG, Vasquez is just fine, but as Dean Oliver showed in Basketball on Paper, the USG/ORTG 'skill curve' is like a cliff. Basically, we're seeing Vasquez' cliff at ~ 25% USG.

    Solutions with existing roster:

    First of all, Vasquez must always play with Derozan (27.5%, 106 ORTG), since he's the only guy who can handle a high usage (27% at or above league average ORTG). Secondly, we need to run more plays for Patterson and especially Salmons. For some reason, Salmons USG has just plummeted over the years, when he's a guy who has (or had) a very diverse offensive game. When Derozan subs out, then we need to bring in Lowry (19.8%, 121 ORTG), since he can increase his USG while maintaining league average efficiency. Of course, this defeats the purpose somewhat of Vasquez, since the idea is to give Lowry a rest.

    So you can readily see that all of the second unit guys are drastically below even the 20% USG threshold, which is simply pulling your weight on offence. League average ORTG is 105, so an average offensive player should be 20% USG @ 105 ORTG. When your usage goes down, your ORTG should go up, so guys like Hansborough, Salmons and Patterson are decent. Hayes and Fields are absolutely putrid on offense.

    Getting Hansborough back in place of Hayes will be a huge lift, since Hands-bro has actually shown capable of consistently handling 20% USG when he was in Indy . His USG% this year (14.7%) is down dramatically with the Raps.

    So let's wait until Hansborough gets back and try to get Salmons more touches. Also Jonas (17%) and Ross (18%) need to start increasing their USG% so that they could be subbed into the second unit.

    Solutions via trade:

    So, even if we trade Vasquez, with the current second unit and substitution patterns (sans Hansborough), a new point guard will have to carry 25% USG. There aren't too many players in the NBA (who aren't considered offensive stars), who can actually maintain league average ORTG at 105 ORTG. Have a look at the list....

    http://bkref.com/tiny/oJiYB

    If we're looking at trades, we could get a classic type of 6th man chucker (think Ben Gordon, Jamal Crawford, Michael Beasley,...) who can fill the USG% void for the second unit. A guy who is available is, and I really don't like his game, is .... the Jimmer (23.5%, 105 ORTG). That's not bad, but a Vasquez/Jimmer backcourt would be pretty scary - even in small doses. But then we could trade Vasquez for 3-D type of PG, like Cory Joseph. That would be interesting with both guys shooting excellent 3P%. Joseph has lost his minutes to Patty Mills on the Spurs, but he keeps improving even with limited minutes.

    To summarize it all, in a nutshell, Raps just need a way to get Vasquez USG back down to the 20% range either by utilizing the existing players more or trading for a higher USG bench player.
    Last edited by golden; Fri Jan 17th, 2014 at 01:44 PM.

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  4. #23
    Raptors Republic Starter torch19's Avatar
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    ^^^ Bang on!

    The thing about John Salmons (& that's why I like him) is he only shoots when the opportunity is there. He's very selective when he hits & it makes him look better out there & Vasquez worse.

    Our second unit can use a low post presence or a quick hitter in the 2 spot [or] sub-out DeRozan early in the first @ around 4 min mark remaining to get him back in there for the 2nd.

    I don't like Vasquez too much but that 2nd unit usually stretches our lead in the 2nd (esp @ home). He's good for now, solid back up PG & the only true ball handler in that 2nd unit.

  5. #24
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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    Vasquez is really not as bad as he's shown. The problem is the construction of the second unit, and the overall team to an extent. This can be easily seen with USG% & ORTG. Usage-wise, second unit guys are: Patterson (18.7%, 112 ORTG), Salmons (13.2%, 110 ORTG), Hayes (11.6%, 101 ORTG), Fields (12.7%, 96 ORTG), Hanborough (14.7%, 117) and then Vasquez at a whopping 24.9% @ 89 ORTG.

    So what's happening is that none of these bench guys can even carry their own offensive load (20% USG), so Vasquez ends up getting the ball back and having to create offense at the end of the clock, or hurl up a desperation 3-pointer. At about 20% USG, Vasquez is just fine, but as Dean Oliver showed in Basketball on Paper, the USG/ORTG 'skill curve' is like a cliff. Basically, we're seeing Vasquez' cliff at ~ 25% USG.

    Solutions with existing roster:

    First of all, Vasquez must always play with Derozan (27.5%, 106 ORTG), since he's the only guy who can handle a high usage (27% at or above league average ORTG). Secondly, we need to run more plays for Patterson and especially Salmons. For some reason, Salmons USG has just plummeted over the years, when he's a guy who has (or had) a very diverse offensive game. When Derozan subs out, then we need to bring in Lowry (19.8%, 121 ORTG), since he can increase his USG while maintaining league average efficiency. Of course, this defeats the purpose somewhat of Vasquez, since the idea is to give Lowry a rest.

    So you can readily see that all of the second unit guys are drastically below even the 20% USG threshold, which is simply pulling your weight on offence. League average ORTG is 105, so an average offensive player should be 20% USG @ 105 ORTG. When your usage goes down, your ORTG should go up, so guys like Hansborough, Salmons and Patterson are decent. Hayes and Fields are absolutely putrid on offense.

    Getting Hansborough back in place of Hayes will be a huge lift, since Hands-bro has actually shown capable of consistently handling 20% USG when he was in Indy . His USG% this year (14.7%) is down dramatically with the Raps.

    So let's wait until Hansborough gets back and try to get Salmons more touches. Also Jonas (17%) and Ross (18%) need to start increasing their USG% so that they could be subbed into the second unit.

    ...

    To summarize it all, in a nutshell, Raps just need a way to get Vasquez USG back down to the 20% range either by utilizing the existing players more or trading for a higher USG bench player.
    How the team plays with Vasquez:

    With DD: 97.5 ORTG, 94.7 DRTG, 27.1 GV USG%, 43.7 GV eFG%
    Without DD: 97.8 ORTG, 97.8 DRG, 22.5 GV USG%, 30.9 GV eFG%

    With Salmons: 102.3 ORTG, 92.6 ORTG, 25.1 GV USG%, 44.5 GV eFG%
    Without Salmons: 86.9 ORTG, 103.3 DRTG, 25.4 GV USG%, 27.4 GV eFG%

    Seems like Salmons playing with Vasquez is working just fine. Seems like DD completely fails to take any usage load off of GV (quite the opposite). Also seeing no correlation between USG and eFG%. Don't buy this theory, sorry.

    I think there's more impact from playing with good bigs for him. With Amir and Jonas, he shoots 44% eFG% (compared to 37% without) with a 40% AST rate (32% without).

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  7. #25
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    @DanH

    Great feedback. I actually agree with you somewhat, in that having an extreme low usage, low efficiency player like Hayes as a 4th big man is possibly too much of a problem than can be compensated for, even by having a high usage wing like Derozan on the court at the same time. Your data seems to show that. So, yes, keeping Amir or even better, Jonas on the court will help. But now you're down to a 3-man big rotation with Jonas and Amir prone to fouling out, so you could end up having to play Hayes in the 4th quarter in winning time - the worst possible time. Again, getting Hansborough back and increasing the usage of Salmons & Hansborough should help. Perhaps bring Jonas back a little earlier, and get him more touches, which would also help to develop his game, should be part of the approach.

    Just wondering: where do you get your data from? It's a nice break out.
    Last edited by golden; Fri Jan 17th, 2014 at 03:09 PM.

  8. #26
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    I'm intrigued by the Fields idea, but I see it as more of a desperation move.

    I acknowledge that Vasquez has been less than stellar so far, but I think he's capable of being a dependable backup PG. The coaching staff should just sit him down and clarify exactly what they expect from him. We don't need a fancy statline, just dependable minutes running the offense while Lowry takes a breather.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

  9. #27
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    I'm intrigued by the Fields idea, but I see it as more of a desperation move.

    I acknowledge that Vasquez has been less than stellar so far, but I think he's capable of being a dependable backup PG. The coaching staff should just sit him down and clarify exactly what they expect from him. We don't need a fancy statline, just dependable minutes running the offense while Lowry takes a breather.
    Fields would be considerably (to put it mildly) worse than Vasquez with the second unit as is. Fields is a 12% USG guy, and almost as inefficient as Hayes. Imagine Hayes and Fields on the court at the same time, with Fields having to create offense at the end of the clock. Not pretty. And the other thing: is Fields really quick enough to guard point guards. I know Vasquez isn't, but is Fields any better? You'd be losing offense, so Fields would have to make it up in defense, which I don't think he would.



    Quote torch19 wrote: View Post
    ^^^ Bang on!

    The thing about John Salmons (& that's why I like him) is he only shoots when the opportunity is there. He's very selective when he hits & it makes him look better out there & Vasquez worse.

    Our second unit can use a low post presence or a quick hitter in the 2 spot [or] sub-out DeRozan early in the first @ around 4 min mark remaining to get him back in there for the 2nd.

    I don't like Vasquez too much but that 2nd unit usually stretches our lead in the 2nd (esp @ home). He's good for now, solid back up PG & the only true ball handler in that 2nd unit.
    Looking at Salmons career stats, it seems like he stopped shooting went he went to Sacramento. I guess that playing a few years with DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans took away his will to score, and now he's just too old to give a damn about it.

  10. #28
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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    Vasquez is really not as bad as he's shown. The problem is the construction of the second unit, and the overall team to an extent. This can be easily seen with USG% & ORTG. Usage-wise, second unit guys are: Patterson (18.7%, 112 ORTG), Salmons (13.2%, 110 ORTG), Hayes (11.6%, 101 ORTG), Fields (12.7%, 96 ORTG), Hanborough (14.7%, 117) and then Vasquez at a whopping 24.9% @ 89 ORTG.

    So what's happening is that none of these bench guys can even carry their own offensive load (20% USG), so Vasquez ends up getting the ball back and having to create offense at the end of the clock, or hurl up a desperation 3-pointer. At about 20% USG, Vasquez is just fine, but as Dean Oliver showed in Basketball on Paper, the USG/ORTG 'skill curve' is like a cliff. Basically, we're seeing Vasquez' cliff at ~ 25% USG.

    Solutions with existing roster:

    First of all, Vasquez must always play with Derozan (27.5%, 106 ORTG), since he's the only guy who can handle a high usage (27% at or above league average ORTG). Secondly, we need to run more plays for Patterson and especially Salmons. For some reason, Salmons USG has just plummeted over the years, when he's a guy who has (or had) a very diverse offensive game. When Derozan subs out, then we need to bring in Lowry (19.8%, 121 ORTG), since he can increase his USG while maintaining league average efficiency. Of course, this defeats the purpose somewhat of Vasquez, since the idea is to give Lowry a rest.

    So you can readily see that all of the second unit guys are drastically below even the 20% USG threshold, which is simply pulling your weight on offence. League average ORTG is 105, so an average offensive player should be 20% USG @ 105 ORTG. When your usage goes down, your ORTG should go up, so guys like Hansborough, Salmons and Patterson are decent. Hayes and Fields are absolutely putrid on offense.

    Getting Hansborough back in place of Hayes will be a huge lift, since Hands-bro has actually shown capable of consistently handling 20% USG when he was in Indy . His USG% this year (14.7%) is down dramatically with the Raps.

    So let's wait until Hansborough gets back and try to get Salmons more touches. Also Jonas (17%) and Ross (18%) need to start increasing their USG% so that they could be subbed into the second unit.

    Solutions via trade:

    So, even if we trade Vasquez, with the current second unit and substitution patterns (sans Hansborough), a new point guard will have to carry 25% USG. There aren't too many players in the NBA (who aren't considered offensive stars), who can actually maintain league average ORTG at 105 ORTG. Have a look at the list....

    http://bkref.com/tiny/oJiYB

    If we're looking at trades, we could get a classic type of 6th man chucker (think Ben Gordon, Jamal Crawford, Michael Beasley,...) who can fill the USG% void for the second unit. A guy who is available is, and I really don't like his game, is .... the Jimmer (23.5%, 105 ORTG). That's not bad, but a Vasquez/Jimmer backcourt would be pretty scary - even in small doses. But then we could trade Vasquez for 3-D type of PG, like Cory Joseph. That would be interesting with both guys shooting excellent 3P%. Joseph has lost his minutes to Patty Mills on the Spurs, but he keeps improving even with limited minutes.

    To summarize it all, in a nutshell, Raps just need a way to get Vasquez USG back down to the 20% range either by utilizing the existing players more or trading for a higher USG bench player.
    I think having Hansbrough back will definitely help because they aren't throwing it into the post for Chunky Hayes to go 1-on-1. Right now they have one play and it is simply a high pick and roll/pop. The three outcomes are a Vasquez take to the hoop, a Patterson shot from the top of the key, or a kick to the corners when the D sags in. These are all very guardable with a good p/r defense like Bradley and the celtics. So maybe we target another slashing wing and have a 10 man rotation?

  11. #29
    Raptors Republic Starter c_bcm's Avatar
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    Quote 2kfeen wrote: View Post
    Fields is only good for point for a really small stretch.
    Teams will sag off of him, and disrespect his non-existant jump shot.
    Sure, he can finish at the rim and has decent handles, but he's not a scorer at all, and he isn't as good as a shot creator as you think he is.
    I like Fields defense, but until he gets even a mid-range shot, then it's pointless to play him meaningful minutes.
    You would have to put 4 other scorers to make up for the void created by Fields
    A big lineup where he can post up opposing pg is intriguing.

  12. #30
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    Does Fields have post moves?
    Plus you have to understand that Fields might not be able to keep up with dynamic PGs for long stretches. Remember, this guy is meant to guard guys like Melo, KD, Wade, Kobe etc. Asking him to be a shot creator on 1 end and guard dynamic PGs/star SFs and SGs is too much to handle for Fields

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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    @DanH

    Great feedback. I actually agree with you somewhat, in that having an extreme low usage, low efficiency player like Hayes as a 4th big man is possibly too much of a problem than can be compensated for, even by having a high usage wing like Derozan on the court at the same time. Your data seems to show that. So, yes, keeping Amir or even better, Jonas on the court will help. But now you're down to a 3-man big rotation with Jonas and Amir prone to fouling out, so you could end up having to play Hayes in the 4th quarter in winning time - the worst possible time. Again, getting Hansborough back and increasing the usage of Salmons & Hansborough should help. Perhaps bring Jonas back a little earlier, and get him more touches, which would also help to develop his game, should be part of the approach.

    Just wondering: where do you get your data from? It's a nice break out.
    First, you can deal with having Hayes and Patterson on the court - but maybe not together, and certainly not together with Vasquez. The key is to stagger the rotations more. We don't have a well-enough rounded bench to be able to use the hockey line change strategy - the bench is made entirely of specific role players, who are only really useful in combination with 2 or 3 starters. We should have one of Jonas/Amir on the court at all times (not hard to do, even with their occasional foul trouble), as well as one of DD and Lowry on the court at all times.

    Second, I get my numbers from nbawowy.com - it is very useful for date and lineup filtering. Just a huge amount of data on that site.

  14. #32
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    Quote 2kfeen wrote: View Post
    Does Fields have post moves?
    Plus you have to understand that Fields might not be able to keep up with dynamic PGs for long stretches. Remember, this guy is meant to guard guys like Melo, KD, Wade, Kobe etc. Asking him to be a shot creator on 1 end and guard dynamic PGs/star SFs and SGs is too much to handle for Fields
    The point is to have Fields appear in the second unit and eat up 3-4 minutes of Vasquez time so that he (Vasquez) can't shoot the Raptors into as big a hole as he has been shooting them into. Why would he be guarding dynamic PGs/star Sfs and SGs?

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