Should the Raps trade out of this draft?

[RobertArchibald]

Just watching the Kansas vs Oak St game on CBS right now. If Wiggins keeps playing like this, the Raps may end up getting him after the lottery.

I hope this is hyperbole. He will go top 5 guaranteed, if not #1 overall. Has too much athleticism not to. He is adjusting to the speed of the game and learning to play in a system. He's not the type of player to take over a game by himself at this point, but he is facing incredible defensive pressure for the first time in his life. Watching the potential in his transition game is scary.

I think his draft position will be dictated by need. A team that doesn't need Embiid will be all over him.

[c_bcm]

No. Never ever tRade draft picks. best way to have highly talented players on cheap contracts.

[isaacthompson]

I trust MU will find the right guy if we are indeed drafting in the early 20's. So no.

[salmon]

Its easy to be good in the NBA, the challenge a team has is being great.

Every team that has been great has done so by taking a big risk . They have risked some sort of asset (wins (ie. ****), dollars (spend alot), draft picks, 'potential' (ie. young players) - and usually more than just one of those) to become great. The idea of the treadmill and/or pretenders vs contenders exist because some teams are willing/able to take risks while others aren't.

Now I'm one to believe that in a perfect world Toronto would have a 1st round draft pick every single year, and I think this because of the economics of the NBA (player movement, value of a pick etc). However, the world is never perfect. Even if we assume the new found success of this team is the new normal, I don't think there is reason to believe its enough to be contenders. A playoff team sure, a 2nd round team possibly. But not a contender. Barring some sort of drastic and unpredictable event, they aren't getting by Miami + Indiana, let alone whoever comes out of the west.

The ofcourse it has the challenge of maintaining this success in the future. Even if we assume this is Lowry's new normal, he could still be gone in the offseason. Should Toronto re-sign him, cap space will be limited after and it will make it difficult to make additional moves. Then it has Patterson to resign, maybe Vasquez, and whether to keep paying Salmons or not. This isn't even getting into what could happen to the 14 other teams in the east which adds a whole new dynamic.

I really don't envy Masai right now, because he is in a spot where he has to make a hard decision, with (I would assume) one less option available to him (ie. ****). Take a big risk or don't, and in not doing so risk that he has to start over and has wasted an opportunity this year. Staying the course is unlikely to get this team anywhere. Whether you love him, like him, hate him or don't care about him, he is at this point because he has yet to make a hard decision. When you put off those hard choices, life has a way of making them for you - and those are the real 'crap shoots' because you aren't controlling them.

To simplify a bit, if he thinks this team as constructed has a good enough 'base' to win a title he has to take a risk. Absolutely has to. Whether that risk needs to include a draft pick or not will come down to what the deal is, but I'm not sure there is any reasonable way to believe it won't. If he doesn't, then this year could easily be a waste and a lost opportunity, but there is no time like the present to get out of your sunk cost.

There is three "most likely" outcomes facing Masai right now:

1) Take a big risk to aim for a title (trade for a 'win now' player).
2) Trade Lowry, and accept that a rebuild is likely coming, even if its a late start
3) don't take a risk, let life make decisions for us, and hope one of those decisions is not being a pretender.

I'm ok with Masai doing 1 or 2 (assuming he doesn't make a Colangelo level big risk small reward choice which I'll assume he won't), but I think doing 3 is the biggest mistake.

Now after saying all that, assuming Masai is willing to take the risk on a 'win now' player, I think the best return would be for a perimeter player, and likely a wing. No idea who that would be right now, but thats where I would hope he is concentrating

or, he doesn't feel he has to make a big decision right now, and he/s doing his job and sees many more scenarios that don't fit your top 3

[stretch]

No. Never ever tRade draft picks. best way to have highly talented players on cheap contracts.

Kyle Lowry was traded for a lottery pick. That seemed to work out OK.

[DanH]

Kyle Lowry was traded for a lottery pick. That seemed to work out OK.

Exception that proves the rule.

[stooley]

or, he doesn't feel he has to make a big decision right now, and he/s doing his job and sees many more scenarios that don't fit your top 3

his post was mostly reasonable except for the comments about a sunk cost. given that our sunk costs are now the 2014 lottery (opportunity cost), this should not alter our future decisions. I'd continue trying to accumulate assets as possible.

[Wiggins]

why in the world would the raptors do that?
am i reading the standings wrong?
from what i see the raps are just as far from the top 2 in the east as the bottom 2.
anyone who thinks this season is a sign of the raps becoming an "elite" team is just insane.
Next year when most of the East teams have healthy rosters and a higher draft pick,
the raps will be back on the outside of the playoff picture looking in again.
Anyone that can't see this will be the reason we'll be stuck with dc and Lowry for years more.

[stretch]

why in the world would the raptors do that?
am i reading the standings wrong?
from what i see the raps are just as far from the top 2 in the east as the bottom 2.
anyone who thinks this season is a sign of the raps becoming an "elite" team is just insane.
Next year when most of the East teams have healthy rosters and a higher draft pick,
the raps will be back on the outside of the playoff picture looking in again.
Anyone that can't see this will be the reason we'll be stuck with dc and Lowry for years more.

The Bucks, Magic, 76ers, Celtics, and Bobcats are years away from being good. I'm all in for extensions for Casey and Lowry but I will actually have no say in the matter.

[e_wheazhy_]

why in the world would the raptors do that?
am i reading the standings wrong?
from what i see the raps are just as far from the top 2 in the east as the bottom 2.
anyone who thinks this season is a sign of the raps becoming an "elite" team is just insane.
Next year when most of the East teams have healthy rosters and a higher draft pick,
the raps will be back on the outside of the playoff picture looking in again.
Anyone that can't see this will be the reason we'll be stuck with dc and Lowry for years more.

No ones saying were elite, just that this year, our draft pick won't be great. Could we turn it into a star and become elite.

[Lark Benson]

No ones saying were elite, just that this year, our draft pick won't be great. Could we turn it into a star and become elite.

Exactly, thank you. Really don't get why people think a 'talented young player' is gonna help this team; they're not, unless another 2-4 wins is what you're looking for. The only thing that's going to help the Raps have meaningful long term success is the kind of franchise player they don't currently have. And if you're expecting that to come out of a pick in the 20s, well I've got some real estate in a Florida swamp I'd like to talk to you about.

So go ahead and take the pick, but if it doesn't pan out then the Raps no longer really have the assets necessary to make a play for a big name without giving up one of JV or Ross. Amazing how many people are willing to take that chance for a pick that'll likely be in the low 20s, a range that historically has something like a 20% chance of being a rotation player and a significantly smaller chance of being a star.

edit: I wanted to add, a lot of people are talking about taking a PG with this year's pick. Perfect example of why I think we they should trade out: keeping the pick is a good idea if you want to keep and develop said player, terrible idea if you want to make a trade. Most teams in the league are solid at the PG, which would drastically diminish the value of that asset, especially if said player doesn't really show much before, say, the trade deadline.

[Pele]

No. This draft is not just about Wiggins, Parker, Randle etc. This draft is deep. One of the deepest draft in years. I think you can get a real good player mid 1st round(16-24 range).

Just to name a few:

Tyler Ennis
Dario Saric
Doug McDermott
TJ Warren
Montrezl Harrell
Andrew Harrison

Saric is out.

I've got my eye on Glenn Robinson 3rd. I think he'll be a late pick that turns into an all-star down the road.

[Demographic Shift]

Clearly you have thought about this. General consensus is that this draft is a good one so if the thought is to trade out of this draft then its logical to expect a return on that pick in a lesser future draft. If our pick is a 19 to 23 range then how do turn that into a guaranteed 14- 18 range in a less favourable draft ?
Don't think you can. So we are pretty much hooped (no pun intended) into exercising the draft pick and incrementally improving the roster. Or making a trade on draft night as the dominoes fall and we see whats available.

edit: This post in reply to Lark Benson 8:31AM post

[Burnit482]

say we get lucky and end up picking 20th. now the top 10 is somewhat decided but i mean in 10 spots between 10-20 there are a lot of guys i reallllllly like that feel would be between 3-7 in a normal draft. Ennis, Mcdermott, GR3, Noah V, Christionson, my list could go on but those are 5 very under rated guys i would love to get the chance at.

[Balls of Steel]

You never trade out of a stacked draft. That's just common sense. Heck even the Knicks wouldn't do that.