Should the Raps trade out of this draft?

[MACK11]

I'd say keep it, you never know who might fall to you in the draft. Especially in this deep draft

[Axel]

Gotta get good young players on rookie scale contracts to be successful in this league. Trading away picks is generally not the best decision and with the Raps current situation, it would be a pretty bad decision unless you acquire a legit all-star PG who is already under contract long term (Rondo?) which simply isn't going to happen.

[psrs1]

As the Raps slowly climb their way up the standings, I find myself wondering more and more if the Raps should trade out of this draft.

They currently have the 11th best record in the league, meaning the 19th overall pick. However, with the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the league, that's likely to fall into the 20s. This is reportedly a very deep draft, but I think there are a lot of advantages to trading this year's pick given the Raptors' financial and talent level situations.

First off, the chances that the Raps are going to find the franchise talent that puts them over the top with such a pick are obviously slim. So although they may miss out on a solid contributor, they probably won't be passing on an all-star.

Secondly, first round picks seem to be extremely valuable this year. With so many teams looking to stockpile assets, there's a very good chance that trading for an equivalent pick or one projected to go just outside the lottery next year would return an extra asset such as a young prospect who hasn't panned out, a second round pick, etc.. And that's significant, because I think that having two first round picks next year might represent the best way for the Raps to make a major trade for the kind of established star necessary to take the next step.

If the Raps do end up paying Lowry then the team faces a serious financial issue going forward with new contracts for Amir, JV and Ross all looming over the next 2 years or so. And that's before you mention Patterson, who is currently playing his way into a solid contract offer that the Raps may not want to match. If you paid all of those players then you'd have a very good team that's unlikely to be a contender but would be pushed up against the cap anyway once you factor in a reasonably priced bench. Not a great situation to be in as it essentially rules out signing a star player in free agency.

That being said, if the Raps go into next year with a resigned Lowry and two 2015 first round picks, the option to deal a 2017 pick and a team full of reasonable contracts and rookie deals, then they would make an ideal trade partner for any team looking to deal a disgruntled star. As the 'what position needs to be upgraded' thread suggests, at some point the Raps are going to have to convert their stable of good-but-not-quite-good-enough players on decent contracts into a superstar or two if they really want to become a contender. And I think that trading out of this year's draft in order to stockpile assets for a future trade might just be the best way to facilitate that.

Thoughts?

Interesting thoughts but even late first round I still would prefer our pick.

[ST1R]

Interesting thoughts but even late first round I still would prefer our pick.

Just watching the Kansas vs Oak St game on CBS right now. If Wiggins keeps playing like this, the Raps may end up getting him after the lottery.

[planetmars]

The Raptors need a super-star. Three ways to do that is via draft, free agency or trade.

For the draft route, there is a chance but slim to get a super star with their 20+ pick (although there is always 2015)

For the free agency route, the Raptors have to clear max dollars and convince a free agent to come here. They won't have the space this summer.. so not worth trading to chew even more of that precious space up. I say they kick the can on Love next year, and then Durant in 2016.

For a trade you are looking at a Harden, DWill, or Carmelo situation. And for that what you need are draft picks, prospects and expiring contracts. If a situation like that opens up then yeah sure use the pick in the trade.. but I don't see one coming this year. Instead, I take the pick hope it turns into the super-star.. if not save him as a prospect and then potentially use him in a trade when or if a Harden/DWill/Carmelo situation opens up. Draft picks are hot commodities... only use them for a smart purchase if you want to give them up.

[golden]

A guy like Ennis, who could be drafted in the 20's might be better off staying another year to improve his game and his draft position. Moving up from say 22nd to 9th is a pretty significant increase when factored over the length of the rookie contract, possibly offsetting the risk of waiting and also getting 1 year earlier to 2nd contract.

In fact, a few of the experts are saying the Wiggins is more of 'project' and might be better off staying another year to improve his overall game. And Jabari has tailed off pretty sharply. I'm also starting to read a number of different sources saying that this draft class might not have anybody remotely close to a Durant or even Derrick Rose level, franchise changing superstar. Some are saying this class has been a tad over-hyped - we'll see.

Maybe an interesting strategy might be to trade out of the 2014 draft and into the 2015 draft and hoping some guys stay in college another year (ala Marcus Smart).

[MangoKid]

If Ennis isn't available, they should take a Euro prospect and stash them away.

[Lark Benson]

For a trade you are looking at a Harden, DWill, or Carmelo situation. And for that what you need are draft picks, prospects and expiring contracts. If a situation like that opens up then yeah sure use the pick in the trade.. but I don't see one coming this year. Instead, I take the pick hope it turns into the super-star.. if not save him as a prospect and then potentially use him in a trade when or if a Harden/DWill/Carmelo situation opens up. Draft picks are hot commodities... only use them for a smart purchase if you want to give them up.

This is why I'm surprised so many people are against trading the pick. As you point out, trading for a star is really the most likely (and you can argue only likely) scenario in which one lands on Toronto's roster. But typically if a GM is trading a superstar type player they want legit prospects back, not late rotation guys.

Look at the Harden trade. OKC got Lamb (12th pick, player at a position of need), Martin's expiring, another pick that ended up as 12th, a future pick and a 2nd rounder. So that's 2 lottery picks, a future first and an expiring contract at a position of need.

Williams was traded for two third overall picks (one of which was Favors, already taken and showing promise), an eventual 21st, and a replacement at Williams' position.

As for Melo, that was a unique situation because Ujiri was really only dealing with New York. Still fleeced them though, but it's unusual in such a deal to see more established players than picks going out.

In other words, GMs generally seem to prefer picks to established players in these deals unless that player has already shown enough to suggest he's going to be a solid or better pro.

By using the pick instead of trading it for a future one, you run several risks. You're gambling that there's going to be someone who can produce in limited enough minutes on a win-now team to actually be of any value and at the same time show enough upside that they will entice another GM. This is a bad gamble, and gambling that the late pick will yield a star is an even worse one, especially given the lack of playing time they're likely to receive. Of course selecting a PG is Lowry bolts is an entirely different story. You also run the risk that of selecting a player that can't help you in a trade because your trading partner is shored up at that position.

To me it comes down to this: if you're a GM next year looking to deal your star, which package looks more enticing to you:

DD (just as an example, could be Amir, etc) plus two 2015 first rounders, and potentially a 2017 first, or DD, some young kid who's been mediocre and who may or not fit into your existing roster structure, a 2015 first and potentially a 2017 first?

Keep in mind that none of those firsts from the Raps are likely to be inside the lottery, so their value isn't going to be very high. To me the best way to guard against your trading partner insisting on a coveted asset like JV or Ross is to stock up on picks, especially if you can get a future pick with protection that gets reduced every year from a bubble playoff team like the Mavs or Nuggets (just examples of teams in a certain situation, didn't look up what they have in terms of picks to trade).

So I guess it comes down to which way you'd rather gamble: that a pick in the 20s can become the kind of player the Raps need for a next step (or can even become a legit trade piece), or that your trade position is strong enough without a rival GM wanting the pick that you can make a trade without having to give up a key piece. Personally, I'd rather stockpile those assets, because if you're looking for a star in the 20s then history and the odds are very much against you. I get why people want to take a player and then wait and see, but I think it's a highly risky move.

[Apollo]

No. This draft is not just about Wiggins, Parker, Randle etc. This draft is deep. One of the deepest draft in years. I think you can get a real good player mid 1st round(16-24 range).

Just to name a few:

Tyler Ennis
Dario Saric
Doug McDermott
TJ Warren
Montrezl Harrell
Andrew Harrison

How about Deonte Burton?


Tel me you don't see some vintage Gilbert Arenas in this kid.

[JimiCliff]

Baron Davis got himself a time machine!

[Raptorman15]

Package a 20 plus first round pick to get someone to take Fields contract. Then we really have some flexibility.

[Apollo]

Fields only has a year left after this season. You want to give up a future player to get rid of Fields a year earlier? Seems like a steep price considering teams might be interesting in giving the Raptors something good next year due to the expiring contract.

[stretch]

Pau for a half season for the Raptors first pick this year plus the worst contracts on the bench (Fields, Novak, Hayes). It actually adds to the Raptors depth. JV becomes a back up temporarily and Hansbrough goes back to being a power forward off the bench. Too bad it doesn't make any sense for the Lakers.

[octothorp]

Fields only has a year left after this season. You want to give up a future player to get rid of Fields a year earlier? Seems like a steep price considering teams might be interesting in giving the Raptors something good next year due to the expiring contract.

Yeah, there's no point in giving up assets to free up a little bit of cap space this summer, when it's only ever going to be a little bit of cap space, especially when you can wait a year and have a big chunk to work with in the 2015 summer.

[e_wheazhy_]

Just watching the Kansas vs Oak St game on CBS right now. If Wiggins keeps playing like this, the Raps may end up getting him after the lottery.

That's been his plan all along...

Conspiracy!