I feel like he's already dropped the ball by not trading Lowry 6 weeks ago.
I feel like he's already dropped the ball by not trading Lowry 6 weeks ago.
"I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder
With the exception of Chicago and maybe Atlanta, we have no reason to think that any of these teams would ACTUALLY be better if they were healthy. I can come up with a bunch of reasons why these teams are actually bad, Watch:
Chicago - lack scoring, boozer is getting old and jimmy butler is unproven as a starting 3
Brooklyn - lopez has been injured most of his career, D-will has been on the decline for a while, rookie head coach in Jason Kidd who is in over his head
Atlanta - young and inexperienced guards, and mostly score in transition. not built for winning close defensive games
NY - lack depth, discipline, and have an offensive focused game which does poorly against defensive minded teams especially on the road (plus they have bargnani)
Washington - lack any veteran leadership, and don't defend consistently
Charlotte -they struggle offensively and don't have an identity on the offensive end
Milwaukee - seriously? , ok their core is either too young, or too untalented.
My point is, I'm not saying that we don't have to play well but this idea that we have to play at "peak performance" in order to stay ahead of milwaukee the next few years is just incorrect.
What we should think as fans is:
The East is actually up for grabs. The Heat are coming to the end of their road. D-rose will never be the same. and there is no reason to think that this group, with some added depth, cannot continue to improve and stay ahead of these teams, who have actually regressed
The Seattle Seahawks, before the season started looked at each other in the locker room and said "why not us?"
We need to start thinking the same thing
"Why not us?"
"Well we just lost to the Lakers, Celtics and Bobcats soooo..."
"Fair point, maybe next year"
They are currently in a 3-way tie for 4th place in the EC. They are the only team that hasn't had a starter miss significant time due to injury, and they are depending on 2 players (Lowry & DeRozan) playing at all-star levels, 2 sophomore players taking big steps forward (JV & Ross - the one sustainable factor) and 2 bigs (Amir & PP) playing at career high levels, in order to win.
Whether you look at how they are winning or what the rest of the EC looks like (without even factoring in the number of young up-and-coming teams that will add a high draft pick to their rosters next season), I'm not sure how you can't at least be a little wary that their success may not be sustainable.
Re-signing Lowry and other important rotation players (ie: PP, TH & GV) would result in the team once again being capped-out. That leaves organic growth (Valanciunas & Ross) and the addition of a late mid-1st round pick as the only options for improving the team, aside from some degree of retooling. I'm not sure how much higher this roster's ceiling can get, realistically speaking.
As for the point about the Seahawks, many NFL experts picked them in the preseason to be the NFC's representative in the Superbowl, including ESPN. Not exactly the same as the Raptors.
Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Tue Jan 21st, 2014 at 10:43 AM.
8th seed in 2013.
9th seed in 2012.
7th seed in 2011.
Tied for 8th seed in 2010.
7th seed in 2009.
I don't think you can get too caught up in the team's current standing (home court in the playoffs!), and ignore some of the context that has allowed it to happen (crippling injuries all over the conference with the Raptors enjoying the best stretch of health in virtually the entire league; unprecedented amount of teams employing full-season tank jobs). In pretty much any other season we'd be exactly in the spots that we're supposedly trying to avoid.
Last edited by Fully; Tue Jan 21st, 2014 at 11:04 AM.
I also would bet that MU is evaluating the Raptors against the entire league, not only the EC. Given the strength of the WC, especially relative to the EC in recent years, a .500 record would leave the team firmly entrenched in "no man's land"; first round EC playoff fodder or #12-14 draft pick at best.
and your seashawks thing was a cheapshot haha obviously i was just talking about the mentality and not making a comparison
Do people really think MU is going to sit on his butt for the next 5 years and make no changes to the roster. Do they also think that he has no flexibility to make changes? Now, obviously that's ludicrous (... no ludacris, btw). In fact, just since the Gay trade, we have acquired or significantly increased the value of at least 4 tradeable assets: DD, Lowry, Ross and 2Pat. While at the same time, increasing salary flexibility. The key decision here remains Lowry - he cannot overpay him, or he will be an overpriced asset which diminishes his trade value, that only goes down as he ages.
MU is getting paid $5M/year to improve the roster, by all means necessary. If MU is as good as advertised then he should be one of the GMs who steals those top 5 draft talent who inevitably drops every year to the late 1st round or even 2nd round. Supposedly, this draft is deep, so it should be even easier to steal one of those guys. Lots of experts even suggesting that both Wiggins and Parker might stay another year. Wiggins, in particular, just does not look ready to compete at the NBA level. I actually hope Wiggins does stay another year and work on his game.
Last edited by golden; Tue Jan 21st, 2014 at 11:51 AM.
Lowry might not be able to keep up this level of play which would drive down his asking price, Lowry might not receive as many offers as you would think considering most teams already have quality starting PG's in place. Would the ones that don't have one in a place like Orlando for example, rather draft a PG and develop him as opposed to signing Lowry to big bucks and not have a competetive roster around him?
Lots of factors that could push Lowry's asking price down, so perhaps it's worth the gamble for MU to wait as opposed to paying him now for what would assuredly be big bucks now.
As far as whether we would be in the 8th spot in any other season, my whole point is that is also up for debate. We do just as well against good and bad teams, and play down to our competition. It's possible we could have still been a 45-47 win team. (We also could have been in dead last by this logic).
I'm just saying it's a pointless argument to make and no one should plan the future of the team around "what would have happened if the east was good" as opposed to working with what is ACTUALLY HAPPENING
Same goes for NJ and ATL....Assuming people are healthy does not mean that the team plays well together, etc.
I also just want to add, again, that this conversation is irrelevant. Brook Lopez gets injured all the time, for example. So why have a conversation about a team that has a healthy brook lopez for years to come? That's less likely than what has actually happened
I am not at all impressed with the mentality of the team right now. We should be 23-17, not 20-20, and that is a significant difference. The boys dropped the ball this week. They had their chance to create some space in the atlantic at least, and those were games they NEEDED to win, not should, would or could. I thought they were on to something and then things get a little 'easier' schedule wise and they completely shit the bed. Is this simply physical? Maybe guys are getting tired and/or hurt, but I'm not buying that. They have failed to show the mental and emotional toughness necessary to maintain the focus, intensity and determination that put them in the position they were in prior to the Boston game.
The next 5-10 games will really show what this team is about? Can they bounce back, can they sustain winning again? Let's hope they can get back to that underdog mentality and take something from that seahawks team. Oh, and we also need to find a better way to score as teams have adjusted to the 2 or 3 sets that the Raps run.
2. I also don't think he has the flexibility (right now) to make the changes that will need to be made. Partly because...
3. You're right, the key decision remains Lowry. If they keep him, bye-bye flexibility. If they trade him now, as an expiring contract, he might bring something back at lesser salary and provide a bit more flex. But if they hold onto him, they're paying $10-12M/year for him over the next 3-5 years. Bye-bye flex, and now you're REALLY hitching your wagon to this 'core', so you better be pretty damn confident that Derozan, Lowry, Val, Amir and Ross can improve A LOT, else All Star Weekend 2016 might be all about what could have been for Toronto...
As for the value of assets like Derozan, Patterson, Lowry and Ross? I think you're overvaluing them all. Lowry is not a trade asset if it doesn't happen this season. Derozan's value will rise and fall with the team's W/L record, since he's the "top dog". Ross probably has some value. Patterson, too, if we didn't also have to, like Lowry, re-sign HIM in the off-season, too.
Things are not all that rosy on the "flexibility" front, at least not right now.
Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.
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