Actually from the years I went through the max number of all-stars after 10 was 2....and they were closer to ten than thirty. It still requires a high pick in the draft. Period.
Sorry dont know if it was said yet but I think one of the most underrated aspects of demar is his durability. Looks like he is getting ready to miss his only something like 10th game of his career tomorrow. Durability is something that u need. U don't want ur superstars (like one we would have picked up in the draft) in and out of the lineups.
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The fact remains though, is that you have roughly a 25% chance to grab a star if you are drafting in the top 10, and a 3.75% chance outside of that. Which means that it is way way less of a "crap shoot" to draft high
I think that a very good, professional scouting team should be able to pick those players out from the rest of the class, or at least narrow the options down. So I would say the 3/80 stat isn't a set of identical, independent events, but rather a heterogeneous set of picks.
In other words, some picks are good, and some picks are bad, and regardless how they turn out, those good picks will have a different chance of turning into all stars than the bad ones.
Your point is taken that good players are found at the top of the draft, I understand this and it should be self explanatory. I also think that those 'numbers' are not really representative of the true odds of getting an all star player after the 10th pick.
I was more bringing up a technical nit-pick. Your point is valid and taken, I just wanted to comment on the use of those types of stats, which I've seen used on the front page as well.
Last edited by stooley; Mon Jan 27th, 2014 at 08:57 AM.
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