Marc Stein thinks Lowry is still being moved

[salmon]

Given the trades offered for Lowry, I think it's fair to say that many of us expected/wanted more than that. Therefore, overvalued.

He also said many, not all. Strange comment to nitpick.

"Strange comment to nitpick."
Huh? Asking someone to supply some basis for a very bold declaration about their opinion, and others, is nitpicking? lol, maybe I better read those forum rules again.

"He also said many, not all."
Huh? Maybe I'm missing something, but that seems irrelevant to my question and comment.

"Given the trades offered for Lowry, I think it's fair to say that many of us expected/wanted more than that. Therefore, overvalued."

Trades? I only recall 1 rumoured proposal, and the only conclusion we can take from that is that Masai wasn't willing to dump KL for a very stupid deal in order to tank, but what "over value" was anybody here making on KL before this rumour? He's a UFA in a few months. Was anybody saying the Raps could get a lottery pick for him, or what? Seems to me that many were ready to dump him for a bag of peanuts a couple of months ago.

I might add, the post I responded to refer to assets , not just KL, so I was curious about what other assets were evidently overvalued. Man, a statement was made that I thought I'd missed something along the way, and I asked a question that I thought could lead to an informative discussion about something other than rumours. My bad, I guess.

[stooley]

"Strange comment to nitpick."
Huh? Asking someone to supply some basis for a very bold declaration about their opinion, and others, is nitpicking? lol, maybe I better read those forum rules again.

"He also said many, not all."
Huh? Maybe I'm missing something, but that seems irrelevant to my question and comment.

"Given the trades offered for Lowry, I think it's fair to say that many of us expected/wanted more than that. Therefore, overvalued."

Trades? I only recall 1 rumoured proposal, and the only conclusion we can take from that is that Masai wasn't willing to dump KL for a very stupid deal in order to tank, but what "over value" was anybody here making on KL before this rumour? He's a UFA in a few months. Was anybody saying the Raps could get a lottery pick for him, or what? Seems to me that many were ready to dump him for a bag of peanuts a couple of months ago.

I might add, the post I responded to refer to assets , not just KL, so I was curious about what other assets were evidently overvalued. Man, a statement was made that I thought I'd missed something along the way, and I asked a question that I thought could lead to an informative discussion about something other than rumours. My bad, I guess.

Ok, wasn't expecting this to turn into such a big deal, but here we go.

1. His comment wasn't very bold. He said there are many people that overvalue our players. That's pretty vague. For proof, I would search Amir's value or Demar's value, the two had long threads about what people would trade them for. Not surprisingly, opinions varied wildly.

2. It does have something to do with this, because to say that everyone has overvalued the contract is a disprovable statement, whereas "many" is... whatever. Same point as above.

3. There was also a rumored offer from the Nets, but regardless.

Anyways, sorry to cause such a tiffy and derail this thread. I was just caught off guard by a demanding reply to an off the cuff remark that didn't really claim anything too inflammatory. Continue as if I had not interfered.

[Scraptor]

OK, let's for one second try to name what was exactly on the table for Lowry instead of theoretically talking tank, maximize assets by showcasing them, resign players and add another key piece, etc...
To the best of my knowledge the only talked about Lowry rumor was Lowry for THJr/Shump and future 1st (probably a 2018 pick). And that proposal was shot down by NY, not us.
Maybe it's just me, but unless the front office has significant evidence Anthony is not resigning and they are going to a full-rebuild mode I think that offer was a kind gesture to the Knicks on MU behalf. Lowry is a very good starting PG in this league, and it's time we start valuing his worth. I'd much rather have him play out his contract, take my chances on resigning him to a contract we want then trading him for worthless stuff (expirings, 2nd rounders, and low-ceiling players). In the worst case scenario we can have more cap-room that can be used to either sign FA of our choice or use the cap-room space as a way of acquiring assets (helping teams get out of luxury, taking on poor contracts for future picks, etc). I have faith in MU and I know he will not sign Jennings or the likes to a 4 year - $50 million contract, so the cap-room will have more value then what teams low-balling us on Lowry are proposing.

The worst case scenario is not just Lowry walking.

The worst case is Lowry walking while simultaneously devaluing our 2014 pick by 10-12 spots. We're currently drafting 19th. Without Lowry I have no doubt we'd be near the Cavs or Lakers. This could mean the difference between snagging an unexpected dropped gem like Drummond or Burke and a role player a couple tiers below.

Note also that last summer the Jazz had to give up a whole pick (21st) just to move up five slots from 14 to 9.

I love Lowry but we are carrying significant risk, and with Demar out it seems that risk (no man's land) has been brought into stark relief. Doesn't seem like much of a coincidence that this comes out now.

[S.R.]

The worst case scenario is not just Lowry walking.

The worst case is Lowry walking while simultaneously devaluing our 2014 pick by 10-12 spots. We're currently drafting 19th. Without Lowry I have no doubt we'd be near the Cavs or Lakers. This could mean the difference between snagging an unexpected dropped gem like Drummond or Burke and a role player a couple tiers below.

Note also that last summer the Jazz had to give up a whole pick (21st) just to move up five slots from 14 to 9.

I love Lowry but we are carrying significant risk, and with Demar out it seems that risk (no man's land) has been brought into stark relief. Doesn't seem like much of a coincidence that this comes out now.

I think it'll take a lot more than one good month from the Nets or a few iffy losses from the Raps to swing the pendulum for Ujiri as much as is being suggested, don't you?

Again, this is a big-picture, patient guy. I think he's indicated he's got a pretty serious rebuild in mind (he has to to get to championship-contender status). The biggest determining factor when it comes to transactions, far bigger than the W/L record over the last 5 games, is what offers are on the table. He's shown a willingness to move all of his key pieces - multiple sources have reported that at some point during MU's tenure, every Raptors has been available save for JV (at least I never read anything about him). I really think that, given a good enough deal, MU would still move any player on this roster, right now. If the deals aren't good enough, he'll keep them. He's not going to weight a salary dump or the fear of a player walking in FA so heavily that he pulls a Rob Babcock-type trade. When he's offered enough for Lowry, he'll trade him. If he's offered crap, I think he'd keep him for a playoff run.

As far as Lowry "screwing" the Raps by carrying them to a poor draft position and then maybe leaving this summer - them's the breaks. Nobody predicted this post-Rudy success. MU had good reasons for keeping young players with upside when only weak offers were on the table. Heck, he would have traded Lowry to NY if not for Dolan. Obviously no offers after that were worth it. Shoulda woulda coulda's don't really bother me.

[stooley]

I think it'll take a lot more than one good month from the Nets or a few iffy losses from the Raps to swing the pendulum for Ujiri as much as is being suggested, don't you?

Again, this is a big-picture, patient guy. I think he's indicated he's got a pretty serious rebuild in mind (he has to to get to championship-contender status). The biggest determining factor when it comes to transactions, far bigger than the W/L record over the last 5 games, is what offers are on the table. He's shown a willingness to move all of his key pieces - multiple sources have reported that at some point during MU's tenure, every Raptors has been available save for JV (at least I never read anything about him). I really think that, given a good enough deal, MU would still move any player on this roster, right now. If the deals aren't good enough, he'll keep them. He's not going to weight a salary dump or the fear of a player walking in FA so heavily that he pulls a Rob Babcock-type trade. When he's offered enough for Lowry, he'll trade him. If he's offered crap, I think he'd keep him for a playoff run.

As far as Lowry "screwing" the Raps by carrying them to a poor draft position and then maybe leaving this summer - them's the breaks. Nobody predicted this post-Rudy success. MU had good reasons for keeping young players with upside when only weak offers were on the table. Heck, he would have traded Lowry to NY if not for Dolan. Obviously no offers after that were worth it. Shoulda woulda coulda's don't really bother me.

I think very few people would disagree with the bold. The question is, can we guess what MU's valuations are?

[dzoni71]

The worst case scenario is not just Lowry walking.

The worst case is Lowry walking while simultaneously devaluing our 2014 pick by 10-12 spots. We're currently drafting 19th. Without Lowry I have no doubt we'd be near the Cavs or Lakers. This could mean the difference between snagging an unexpected dropped gem like Drummond or Burke and a role player a couple tiers below.

Note also that last summer the Jazz had to give up a whole pick (21st) just to move up five slots from 14 to 9.

I love Lowry but we are carrying significant risk, and with Demar out it seems that risk (no man's land) has been brought into stark relief. Doesn't seem like much of a coincidence that this comes out now.

I agree with you 100%, but I guess it comes down to the question - Do you trust MU? So far, he has not done one darn thing that would make me doubt him for one second. He has all the info: what teams are offering for Lowry, what Lowry has told him he sees as his future, what the ownership promised him... Yeah, I think we are in good hands, and for the first time (well like ever) we are not selling on 10c on the $ (I never, ever, ever want to see the VC or Bosh scenario play out again).

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I think it'll take a lot more than one good month from the Nets or a few iffy losses from the Raps to swing the pendulum for Ujiri as much as is being suggested, don't you?

How do we know that MU ever took Lowry off the trade block?

From the earlier Lowry trade rumors, to what came out about MU being upfront with Lowry and his agent, to the latest rumblings from Stein, I think it's far more likely that Lowry's been on the trade block all season. MU has kept the asking price high, as he watches Lowry's play drive up his value.

If that's the case, then the pendulum has been stuck in the "trade Lowry" position all season.

[S.R.]

How do we know that MU ever took Lowry off the trade block?

From the earlier Lowry trade rumors, to what came out about MU being upfront with Lowry and his agent, to the latest rumblings from Stein, I think it's far more likely that Lowry's been on the trade block all season. MU has kept the asking price high, as he watches Lowry's play drive up his value.

If that's the case, then the pendulum has been stuck in the "trade Lowry" position all season.

That's definitely possible - maybe even likely. Although to counter that there were a couple articles last week where MU claims he basically told Lowry to his face that this team would determine its own fate - i.e. implying that if they played well, MU would build with the current roster and if they didn't he'd tear it apart.

The cost/benefit has also changed a bit since the Rudy trade and NY proposal in that "keep Lowry" now includes a realistic shot at the 2nd round. Weight that however you like.

Note that I'm not arguing for or against trading Lowry here. More commenting on the crazy reactionary fan mood swings that change every 5 games.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

That's definitely possible - maybe even likely. But if that's the case, then the pendulum never moved in the first place ;P

The bold was my point exactly. If that is the case, then these new rumblings don't represent a sudden, reactionary shift from MU. In fact, it would show that he's maintained his strategy, even in the face of the post-Gay winning streak and rise up the EC standings, putting a proper rebuild ahead of short-term success in an historically weak EC. It's a subtle, but significant difference to me.

[S.R.]

The bold was my point exactly. If that is the case, then these new rumblings don't represent a sudden, reactionary shift from MU. In fact, it would show that he's maintained his strategy, even in the face of the post-Gay winning streak and rise up the EC standings, putting a proper rebuild ahead of short-term success in an historically weak EC. It's a subtle, but significant difference to me.

I realized how redundant that was and edited already. lol and all that

[KeonClark]

If we can get a top 15 pick for Lowry either this draft or next, I say do it. We already know we have SOMETHING in Valanciunas and Ross, and if we have two decent first rounders this or next year and another 2 that should be fairly high in 2016, it's becoming clear when our championship push/build should come, and that's the year 2016-17.

[2kfeen]

This year is probably Lowry's peak. He's not a part of our future. But he is balling out of his mind

He's faced a fair share of injuries, and his style of game is not like Billups (mid-range, post game PG) or Nash where he can play elite in his 30s.
So when we have a potential championship contender in later years, Lowry won't be playing at a high level.

Most teams are sellers this year, but there are some teams that we can bilk assets out of:

Pistons (Jennings is a complete bust and is losing games)
Lakers
Knicks
Rockets
Bucks

The Pistons, Knicks, Rockets, Lakers need a point guard to run their show.

For Pistons, a deal centered around Monroe with Lowry involved could work. This gives us a bonafide post player and a legit big man.
For Knicks, they can give up probably Shumpert and a future first (not too much they have).
Rockets would ideally give us a first plus Asik for Lowry

The Lakers is tricky, because they don't really need to trade for Lowry. They can sign him out right. They can use the stretch provision on Nash, or wait for Nash to retire to get rid of his contract. Other than that, I see Lowry for Nash and a first and maybe Xavier Henry.

[Shrub]

Here's a question worth asking:

If Masai doesn't get what he's asking for, does he eventually make the trade anyway?

I imagine that if this trade goes down, it will be right at the deadline at the climax of an epic chicken match.

[dzoni71]

Pistons (Jennings is a complete bust and is losing games)
Lakers
Knicks
Rockets
Bucks

The Pistons, Knicks, Rockets, Lakers need a point guard to run their show.

For Pistons, a deal centered around Monroe with Lowry involved could work. This gives us a bonafide post player and a legit big man.
For Knicks, they can give up probably Shumpert and a future first (not too much they have).
Rockets would ideally give us a first plus Asik for Lowry

The Lakers is tricky, because they don't really need to trade for Lowry. They can sign him out right. They can use the stretch provision on Nash, or wait for Nash to retire to get rid of his contract. Other than that, I see Lowry for Nash and a first and maybe Xavier Henry.

The only deal I would take you mentioned is the Houston deal, but no way McHale takes Lowry back.
If MU opts for rebuild one deal I see is Collison+Barnes+1st rounder for Lowry.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Here's a question worth asking:

If Masai doesn't get what he's asking for, does he eventually make the trade anyway?

I imagine that if this trade goes down, it will be right at the deadline at the climax of an epic chicken match.

As I said in an earlier post, there are only 2 reasons why I could see MU not taking the best available net-positive trade.

1) If the team is sitting in the #3-5 seed at the deadline, it would be hard to sell a trade that is considered "borderline positive" at best. In that situation, MU better get a unanimously "good" deal, or else a lot of people will argue that playoffs (with 2nd round a real possibility) would have been preferred. This dilemma was the risk associated with waiting to trade Lowry, if trading him has been MU's preference all along.

2) If Lowry (or his agent) gives MU reason to believe that he wants to re-sign with Toronto at an amount that is palatable to MU (assuming MU wants Lowry to be the team's starting PG next season).


Otherwise, I think MU will take the best available net-positive trade.