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Thread: The * to Masai's proclamation of, "We will not be caught in no man's land."

  1. #81
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    I don't think the Lakers are giving us a top 10 pick for Lowry in a sign and trade. We might be able to get something back from them if that's how the scenario plays out, but not that.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    i'll be shocked if the Lakers make the pick and keep the player it's not top 3-5. it's just not how they operate. and with Kobe with only 2 years left (that's assuming he even makes it that long) they're going to do everything they can to make the team competitive now.
    @jerboat

  3. #83
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    Quote ceez wrote: View Post
    i'll be shocked if the Lakers make the pick and keep the player it's not top 3-5. it's just not how they operate. and with Kobe with only 2 years left (that's assuming he even makes it that long) they're going to do everything they can to make the team competitive now.
    I kind of looked at it the other way - with $25 million dollars wrapped up in Kobe the next couple of years and their eyes on another max level guy to pair with him, I think they'd want to hold on to a relatively low cost and controllable player that could very easily step in and contribute right off the bat. I'm sure what their pick ends up being and who is left on the board will dictate a lot of what happens.

  4. #84
    Raptors Republic All-Star mike, prague's Avatar
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    To trade Lowry or to keep Lowry is really a gamble. If you trade him you have a 100% chance at getting back at least something of value be it LeBron James or new towels and shower supplies. Truth is it's going to be pretty tough getting anything with at least 70% of Lowrys value because he is an expiring. So in other words if we trade him we have a 100% chance to get back something like 60% of what Lowry is worth (though some would say (including myself) that Kyle is to some degree priceless at the moment).

    If we don't trade him, I'd say that we have about a 70% chance of landing him back, with the advantage being that we do have some reasonable cash and that this situation here in T-dot has really been working both for him and the team making it more attractive. The 30% being there to consider the cash crazy teams out there like the Lakers who have pockets deeper than Marianas trench and could offer him 20M/yr (not saying that they would).

    So to sum it up either we have a 100% shot at landing 60% of Lowry comparable talent, by trading him. Or a 70% shot at landing 100% of Lowry comparable talent (that being Kyle himself), by keeping him.

    To express it mathematically.

    Trade vs. Keep
    60/100 < 70/100
    =
    0.6 < 0.7

    Therefore I say keep.

    (Though the coefficients I chose are highly debatable)
    Last edited by mike, prague; Tue Jan 28th, 2014 at 12:51 PM.

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  6. #85
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    I kind of looked at it the other way - with $25 million dollars wrapped up in Kobe the next couple of years and their eyes on another max level guy to pair with him, I think they'd want to hold on to a relatively low cost and controllable player that could very easily step in and contribute right off the bat. I'm sure what their pick ends up being and who is left on the board will dictate a lot of what happens.
    i'm not saying that isn't the smart way of doing it, i'm just saying it's the lakers way of doing it.
    @jerboat

  7. #86
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    I don't think the Lakers are giving us a top 10 pick for Lowry in a sign and trade. We might be able to get something back from them if that's how the scenario plays out, but not that.
    Shedding Nash is the kicker.

    Who in the league would:
    a) take back Nash at this point, and
    b) have a player such as Lowry and multiple 2nds to offer in exchange?


    You might be right though. Who knows? I believe the Lakers are going all in on winning now though.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  8. #87
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote mike, prague wrote: View Post
    To trade Lowry or to keep Lowry is really a gamble. If you trade him you have a 100% chance at getting back at least something of value be it LeBron James or new towels and shower supplies. Truth is it's going to be pretty tough getting anything with at least 70% of Lowrys value because he is an expiring. So in other words if we trade him we have a 100% chance to get back something like 60% of what Lowry is worth (though some would say (including myself) that Kyle is to some degree priceless at the moment).

    If we don't trade him, I'd say that we have about a 70% chance of landing him back, with the advantage being that we do have some reasonable cash and that this situation here in T-dot has really been working both for him and the team making it more attractive. The 30% being there to consider the cash crazy teams out there like the Lakers who have pockets deeper than Marianas trench and could offer him 20M/yr (not saying that they would).

    So to sum it up either we have a 100% shot at landing 60% of Lowry comparable talent, by trading him. Or a 70% shot at landing 100% of Lowry comparable talent (that being Kyle himself), by keeping him.

    To express it mathematically.

    Trade vs. Keep
    60/100 < 70/100
    =
    0.6 < 0.7

    Therefore I say keep.

    (Though the coefficients I chose are highly debatable)
    I think you have to keep him as well, hope this year produces a strong playoff push, and see what happens on the trade front or in free agency this summer.

    Reality is Luol Deng only returned financial relief, a heavily protected 1st, and a 2015 and 2016 2nd round pick. Deng is a solid solid wing.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  9. #88
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    Quote ceez wrote: View Post
    i'm not saying that isn't the smart way of doing it, i'm just saying it's the lakers way of doing it.
    Yeah fair enough. Jim Buss has strung together a pretty solid string of boneheaded moves in a relatively short tenure, so I'm sure he's more than capable of panic-trading a pick that they suffered through a miserable season just to get.

    Another variable I think could play a part will be whether they'll able to land a big name free agent outright. If they make a splash that way then I think they're less likely to move the pick.

  10. #89
    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    I kind of looked at it the other way - with $25 million dollars wrapped up in Kobe the next couple of years and their eyes on another max level guy to pair with him, I think they'd want to hold on to a relatively low cost and controllable player that could very easily step in and contribute right off the bat. I'm sure what their pick ends up being and who is left on the board will dictate a lot of what happens.
    I tend to look at this way as well. The Lakers have a good opportunity to draft a quality player that shouldn't inhibit their plans to compete sooner rather than later if that's what they want to do. The pick is obviously a significant trade chip for landing a quality player, but the guy they draft may also be able to help the team next year, and if he turns out to be a pretty good player someone they can continue to build with after Kobe leaves.

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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Few things:

    1. Again, there is massive cognitive dissonance here. A Raps team with no Lowry, no Derozan and Andrew Wiggins (for example) has way, way more question marks than the current squad.

    2. If you believe the Raps already have two good young players and the ability to lure meaningful free agents, then why in the world would you advocate a tank? Wouldn't it simply make far more sense to try and attract a premier free agent from a position of strength?

    3. How are the current Raps mediocre? They are 17-9 since the Gay deal. That projects to a 50-win season.

    This team has flaws and, no, it doesn't have a Lebron James. But, again, this roster was an absolute mess only 6 months ago. In the interim, the organization has shed two horrible contracts and anchor-weight players, re-made its entire front office and coaching staff, completely gutted its bench, and starts two enormously important players who are under 22 - and they have done all this while dramatically improving as a ball club.

    You are starting to remind me of the guy that pops up on the front page of the Globe and Mail every time the market tanks, "Genius Analyst Predicted Bear Market". What they don't tell you is that they guy has been predicting a bear market every day for 4 years and is only finally right today. So, yeah, two years from now you might be right that 2013-14 was a bad year for the organization but, in the meantime, you've missed out on any success in the interim.

    Can't we acknowledge all the good that has been here in such a short time?
    That post deserves a bump! With the very entertaining basketball, while winning, that this team is producing, coupled with the passion and commitment we're seeing from the whole team, It's beyond me that some "fans" of the team insist on doing all they can to tear the team down, never mind continue to advocate blowing it up for a wish and a prayer. It blows me away. Shit, even a toddler would be able to see that this team, with this PG, and with this coach (great call on that inbound defense last night!!!), and with so much youth, has something special going on. Must suck to not be able to enjoy it (the occasional lip service doesn't count).

  12. #91
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote salmon wrote: View Post
    That post deserves a bump! With the very entertaining basketball, while winning, that this team is producing, coupled with the passion and commitment we're seeing from the whole team, It's beyond me that some "fans" of the team insist on doing all they can to tear the team down, never mind continue to advocate blowing it up for a wish and a prayer. It blows me away. Shit, even a toddler would be able to see that this team, with this PG, and with this coach (great call on that inbound defense last night!!!), and with so much youth, has something special going on. Must suck to not be able to enjoy it (the occasional lip service doesn't count).
    With Lowry's uncertainty, there's worry that this team's current ways are unsustainable. That's where these other "fans" are coming from.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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  14. #92
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    One of the reasons I struggle with this question is that the most high-probability path of contending, and the worst-case scenario, both come from the same strategy.

    If you're successful in retaining Lowry on a reasonable contract, then you're potentially one star player away from being a legit contender, assuming decent internal development by all the young players. And while there's nearly zero chance of adding that player via free agency this summer, there's a decent chance of acquiring that player via 2015 free agency (especially if we're a proven winner with young, intact core and lots of cap space). That's the most high-probability path to contending, when you consider that trading Lowry likely puts you two star players away from being a contending team.

    Then there's the worst case scenario: Lowry walking in the offseason, and Toronto being left with a low draft pick and nothing else to show for this year. I've been worrying about that worst case scenario ever since the Gay trade.

    However, recently I've thought myself into a little bit of zen philosophy: To reach a goal, weigh only the odds of success, not the consequences of failure. If the goal is truly a championship, then all outcomes that do not result in a championship-contending team are equally worst-case.
    tank-agnostic

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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    With Lowry's uncertainty, there's worry that this team's current ways are unsustainable. That's where these other "fans" are coming from.
    Oh, I see that. What I don't get, is why people CHOOSE to worry about speculation that they have no control over, while doing everything possible to not acknowledge all the good that's happening. It seems such a waste of time to me, especially in regards to a choice of entertainment. In my experience, worry does nothing to change tomorrow for the better, but simply cripples enjoyment of today. Why some feel the need to repeatedly share such worries, effectively dragging others down into that darkness, even as there's so much to enjoy now, and so much promise in the youth on this team, is beyond me.

    Now, I understand, and accept, that some don't give a damn what I understand or don't. However, that shouldn't prevent me from expressing such an opinion. With that stated, as slaw said in the post I responded to:

    " You (whoever that was) are starting to remind me of the guy that pops up on the front page of the Globe and Mail every time the market tanks, "Genius Analyst Predicted Bear Market". What they don't tell you is that they guy has been predicting a bear market every day for 4 years and is only finally right today. So, yeah, two years from now you might be right that 2013-14 was a bad year for the organization but, in the meantime, you've missed out on any success in the interim."

  17. #94
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote salmon wrote: View Post
    Oh, I see that. What I don't get, is why people CHOOSE to worry about speculation that they have no control over, while doing everything possible to not acknowledge all the good that's happening. It seems such a waste of time to me, especially in regards to a choice of entertainment. In my experience, worry does nothing to change tomorrow for the better, but simply cripples enjoyment of today. Why some feel the need to repeatedly share such worries, effectively dragging others down into that darkness, even as there's so much to enjoy now, and so much promise in the youth on this team, is beyond me.

    Now, I understand, and accept, that some don't give a damn what I understand or don't. However, that shouldn't prevent me from expressing such an opinion. With that stated, as slaw said in the post I responded to:

    " You (whoever that was) are starting to remind me of the guy that pops up on the front page of the Globe and Mail every time the market tanks, "Genius Analyst Predicted Bear Market". What they don't tell you is that they guy has been predicting a bear market every day for 4 years and is only finally right today. So, yeah, two years from now you might be right that 2013-14 was a bad year for the organization but, in the meantime, you've missed out on any success in the interim."
    I don't worry about Lowry in the same way that I worry about about losing a job.

    Sometimes it's just fun to look at where the Raptors stand and where we're going in the future. Obviously no one on this forum 'controls' anything that happens with the raptors (except when I wear my raps hat on gameday, usually means a win).

    I find the whole process of debating with people with different opinions over where we stand as a franchise enjoyable. I don't debate to win or to convince anyone, I debate because it's fun, and sometimes I learn something.

  18. #95
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    Quote salmon wrote: View Post
    Oh, I see that. What I don't get, is why people CHOOSE to worry about speculation that they have no control over, while doing everything possible to not acknowledge all the good that's happening. It seems such a waste of time to me, especially in regards to a choice of entertainment. In my experience, worry does nothing to change tomorrow for the better, but simply cripples enjoyment of today. Why some feel the need to repeatedly share such worries, effectively dragging others down into that darkness, even as there's so much to enjoy now, and so much promise in the youth on this team, is beyond me.

    Now, I understand, and accept, that some don't give a damn what I understand or don't. However, that shouldn't prevent me from expressing such an opinion. With that stated, as slaw said in the post I responded to:

    " You (whoever that was) are starting to remind me of the guy that pops up on the front page of the Globe and Mail every time the market tanks, "Genius Analyst Predicted Bear Market". What they don't tell you is that they guy has been predicting a bear market every day for 4 years and is only finally right today. So, yeah, two years from now you might be right that 2013-14 was a bad year for the organization but, in the meantime, you've missed out on any success in the interim."
    Bold: Without us talking about it, there are no discussion boards. It's what we do to entertain ourselves/each other on here. What else would we do? Maybe there should be more positivity on here, I'll concede that.

    As far as the OP goes: I'm still inclined to get something for Lowry this year if he is indicating he's leaving. Another option I've grown fond of is to essentially get nothing for him. Enjoy the ride (and possible second round playoff appearance) this year, let him walk, and tank next year.

  19. #96
    Raptors Republic Starter 3inthekeon's Avatar
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    Quote thead wrote: View Post
    Hi Kevin! welcome to RR
    Thanks for the welcome thead, but my name's not Surely...or Kevin.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote salmon wrote: View Post
    In my experience, worry does nothing to change tomorrow for the better, but simply cripples enjoyment of today. Why some feel the need to repeatedly share such worries, effectively dragging others down into that darkness, even as there's so much to enjoy now, and so much promise in the youth on this team, is beyond me.
    Think of it this way:

    Some people enjoy living their lives paycheque to paycheque without a worry about what the future holds. "Yay! We're having fun! Live in the moment! Who cares about tomorrow!"

    Others prefer a more methodical approach and ask the question, "How much money do I have to save in order to retire?" Perhaps "worrying" was a poor choice of words. It's more like "preparing".

    It's a loose comparison to the topic at hand, I know. But I'm just pointing out the frame of mind of the fans who are thinking long-term. The decisions that Ujiri makes today, affects tomorrow.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Think of it this way:

    Some people enjoy living their lives paycheque to paycheque without a worry about what the future holds. "Yay! We're having fun! Live in the moment! Who cares about tomorrow!"

    Others prefer a more methodical approach and ask the question, "How much money do I have to save in order to retire?" Perhaps "worrying" was a poor choice of words. It's more like "preparing".

    It's a loose comparison to the topic at hand, I know. But I'm just pointing out the frame of mind of the fans who are thinking long-term. The decisions that Ujiri makes today, affects tomorrow.
    Why can't you do both? Why can't you have some success this year while at the same time building for tomorrow's success? It's not an either or proposition and the two are not mutually exclusive. People are so caught up in the "tanking vs. sacrifice the future to win now" choice. Those aren't the only options.

    The team has a good GM and a solid front office. It has new ownership that appears to be willing to spend money. It has roster and cap flexibility. It has three good young players. Perhaps, and let me just throw this out there, the team can have some success this year and next while making the necessary additions to go from playoff team to contender. If you are prepared to accept the possibility that they could win the draft lottery, get he next Lebron James and win a championship 6 years later, surely you can contemplate other possibilities?

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  23. #99
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote KeonClark wrote: View Post
    Cherry picking stats. Everybody talks about this "atrocious" January and falling back to Earth, but we're 9-6 in January (with losses to MIA, IND, LAC)

    We're 6-4 since that arbitrary day you listed as Jan 12. We are the only team to beat Brooklyn in 2014 (twice).

    Have the Raptors come back down to Earth, or are they still a winning program with some chinks in the armour, what most people thought they had become in the first place? It's still a helluva lot better than it was 2 months ago, need I remind you.
    That arbitrary day was when regression on defense started. It was a direct reply to the other poster who stated as long as the raptors are banging on defense all is good. Well they are no longer banging on defense. They are 5-4 over last 9 with 3 embarrassing losses and a defensive rating of 106.

    Speaking of cherry picking stats why are you focusing only on Brooklyn in 2014? Why not mention Raptors are only team to lose to boston this year besides Washington in OT? Cs are 2-11. Or how about only team lakers have beat in 2014 are Toronto and Boston?

    You can remind me all you like on where Raps were 2 months ago, I do recall though. However need I remind you where raptors were a year ago at start of gay trade, subsequent uptick, down tick, and end to last year? A lot of people proclaiming they were .500 team and with offseason and full training camp..... Yeah that didn't work out too well.

    I'm not quite sure why so many are upset though. It is obvious tanking is out for this year. My tank is rusting on a beach in the sun. I'm all in on letting this year play out and I hope they do well in playoffs too. However to say there are no dangers lurking or this team is only going to get better beyond this season is rose coloured glasses at best and delusion at worst. The engine driving this team could very much walk away if he chooses. Considering no one here knows, I think 50/50 odds are reasonable. Which takes us back to original point of thread: ujiri has never given a time frame on his proclamation of not being stuck in no mans land.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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  25. #100
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Think of it this way:

    Some people enjoy living their lives paycheque to paycheque without a worry about what the future holds. "Yay! We're having fun! Live in the moment! Who cares about tomorrow!"

    Others prefer a more methodical approach and ask the question, "How much money do I have to save in order to retire?" Perhaps "worrying" was a poor choice of words. It's more like "preparing".

    It's a loose comparison to the topic at hand, I know. But I'm just pointing out the frame of mind of the fans who are thinking long-term. The decisions that Ujiri makes today, affects tomorrow.
    I think slaw already posted a great response to this, but if I could add something in direct response to your analogy:

    IMO, the wisest approach is to balance between preparing for the future, while also doing some living today. One doesn't know what will happen tomorrow, so throwing all your eggs in an imagined future can leave you nothing while you have a chance to live.

    And what's not to enjoy about today? We have a young up and coming core that are just beginning to learn to play together, yet are already producing some great basketball. Lowry 27, DD 24, JV 21, Ross 22, 2Pat 24, Amir 26. Whether they'll be a contender with that core, nobody knows, but Masai certainly has the pieces to work with if he has the opportunity to improve, to say nothing of having all future 1st rounders. In the meantime, there's a great deal to cheer about today. Today is fun, while we also have multiple youthful assets for the future. Seems like a heck of a balance to celebrate, imo.

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