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Thread: Is a lockout looming in 2011?

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default Is a lockout looming in 2011?

    Which brings us to the Lockout That Hasn't Happened Yet. Unless the players' association agrees to major concessions by the summer of 2011 -- highly doubtful because that would involve applying common sense -- the owners will happily lock out players as soon as the current CBA expires, then play the same devious waiting game from the summer of 1998. David Stern will grow another scruffy beard. The owners will plant their feet in the sand, grab the tug-of-war rope and dig in. Only this time, they KNOW they will win. See, we learned a dirty little secret in the last lockout: An inordinate number of NBA players live paycheck to paycheck. Yes, even the guys making eight figures a year. You can play high-stakes poker with them … and you will win.
    "I don't need to worry about money, I'm making $10 mil a year!" I know it sounds farfetched, but I've heard the Inexplicable Tale Of Financial Woe with NBA stars too many times to count
    Remember the lessons of the '99 lockout -- the players HAD to come back. And it wasn't because they missed playing.
    Team Stern and the owners know this better than anyone. They will pick the next fight, and again, they will win. When the players' union waves a white flag and the lockout finally ends (2012? 2013?), I predict a raise of the individual salary max (to $24-25 million), a softer salary cap, a restriction on long-term contracts (can't be more than three years unless you're re-signing your own star), the elimination of opt-out clauses and the midlevel exemption, and the rookie age limit rising to 20. That's seven predictions in all … and I bet I'll end up nailing six. Will the league survive a yearlong disappearance? What about two years? We're less than 29 months from starting to find out.
    (And by the way, nobody loves basketball more than me. I mean, NOBODY. But when an NBA player with two years remaining on his contract for a total of $44 million shows up for the season out of shape, complains most of the year, lets down his teammates and fans again and again, lands in some trade rumors and decides, "Instead of getting traded to a team I don't like, I'm going to announce that I'm getting microfracture surgery four days before the trade deadline and kill any potential trade, and even better, I'll be healed by next spring, just in time to showcase myself for another contract," and successfully pulls this off -- with no repercussions from anybody -- then yes, the system is broken and needs to be fixed. Because that was disgusting. Tracy McGrady, you are officially indefensible for the rest of eternity. Even your cousin Vince wouldn't have done that. And that's saying something.)
    "The Sports Guy: Bill Simmons" - EPSN.com

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    Raptors Republic Starter Gurk's Avatar
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    I hope not. I can't bear not watching basketball for over the summer just imagine this
    Last name ever, first name greatest

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    Nah, the economic downturn + several team's financial struggles + past experience of a lockout will make the player's union far more accepting of change. The players will be reasonable.

    Chances of a lockout are minimal.

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    I fully agree Dave... and its not just the players that will be more accommodating, the owners/Stern are not going to take that risk either, it hasn't exactly been roses for the NBA out there. Recent history has shown that lockouts can affect your profits for a decade.


    Prices have been going up on these tickets, and the corporate sector is still far from healthy. I can't see the NBA standing pat while the corporate sector finds other entertainment options.


    ...but that said, money can always be a monkey wrench.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote trizzo wrote: View Post
    I fully agree Dave... and its not just the players that will be more accommodating, the owners/Stern are not going to take that risk either, it hasn't exactly been roses for the NBA out there. Recent history has shown that lockouts can affect your profits for a decade.
    Trizzo, when half the league would be losing less money by closing the gates there is little to risk involved in carving out a CBA that makes sense in a new, much poorer, America; little risk in waiting for the players to sign on to it.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie Creebrave's Avatar
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    Default CBA Negotiations


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    Raptors Republic Rookie pinkoglu's Avatar
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    ..what is happening..???do you want nba go on shame...???.....

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    I hope David Stern's salary gets slashed as well..

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Stern's salary isn't determined by the CBA. He has his own contract with the league.

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    Looks like a lockout looms for 2010-11 season.

    Owners want a severe drop in salaries.

    http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ar...p_of_salaries/

    The more compelling question is what to do about contracts to be negotiated in 2010 ala Bosh and others going forward.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Those can't be touched by a renegotiation. This is why Wade, James and Bosh strategically placed their free agency where they did. The players in FA 2011 are going to take big time pay cuts given the hard times in the American economy.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Default NBA owners propose hard cap, paycut for players

    NBA owners propose hard cap, paycut for players
    Posted on: February 5, 2010 2:10 pm
    Edited on: February 5, 2010 4:17 pm


    NEW YORK-- Launching a grim opening salvo in what is expected to be a contentious labor negotiation, NBA owners have sent their initial proposal to the NBA Players Association and are pushing for some elements of a "hard" salary cap as well as a drastic reduction in player salaries, CBSSports.com has learned.

    The proposal, sent to the union earlier this week, seeks a reduction in the players' share of basketball-related income from 57 percent to well below 50 percent, according to a person familiar with the document. Owners also are seeking some elements of a hard cap -- a departure from the current luxury-tax system -- and a reduction in the length and amount of max contracts.
    cont on link

    http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.co...38893/19929589

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    Raptors Republic Starter bryan colangelo's Avatar
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    Yes, this is both good and bad for the team.

    It increases the likelihood of us resigning Bosh. Already, there are rumours that both Lebron and Chris would be open to negotiating extensions under the current CBA. They know closer they wait until free agency, the more frugal owners and GMs are likely to be as negotiations evolve.

    However, signing any player to a max contract now may have brutal ramifications for teams in two to three years, with a smaller hard cap. Can you imagine what the Raptors would look like built around a player that takes up 30 to 40 % of our cap space? It's not like Bosh is Lebron or Primetime Shaq.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Raptor Jesus's Avatar
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    Default Disastrous

    This sounds like the aggregate majority of failing teams looking to shank successful teams for essentially better approaching the business end of the game.

    If the Cavs, Raps, Knicks, Heat, Hawks, Rockets etc. basically anyone ready for the 2010 free agent pool sign big contracts, this Reduction in Salaries and Hard Cap would tie these franchises hands and significantly hinder their ability to compete.
    Last edited by Raptor Jesus; Sat Feb 6th, 2010 at 11:29 AM. Reason: Editted for Spelling and grammar

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    Administrator Arsenalist's Avatar
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    Good. I have no idea why they didn't do that last time. A hard cap should at least provide conditions in which parity is possible. Somebody mentioned this a while back on the blog raps, but an idea of a "franchise player" like in the NFL would also be good.

    Raptor Jesus - If a hard cap is put in place, I doubt it'll come into effect immediately. It'll have to be a staggered thing for the reasons you mentioned.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie jamesk's Avatar
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    Agreed, it would have to grand-fathered in, otherwise the owners are shanking themselves.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie jamesk's Avatar
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    Re; Parity, is it a good thing? In the NFL, outside of the colts, who knows which team will make the playoffs any given year, in the NHL, who knows who will win in the playoffs any given year. Exciting for the fanbase, sure you always have a chance, and it's always fun to see an upset, but when the 8 or 6 seed winning isn't an upset, and when the semi-finals include teams of dubious quality, it's due to parity. I much prefer the climb to the top of the mountain element of sport, and posit that a 1vs.2 matchup in any sport is the most compelling, especially one in which those two teams have earned their place, shaped their rosters and honed their craft in the process of pursuing a championship. Perhaps the best mixture of both elements is the final four tournament, and is there a better round than regional finals? Usually two teams that have what it takes to go all the way, teams that draw elite players and build a high calibre brand of basketball, after the cinderellas have told their stories and gone home. Every franchise should be given that chance, to have run for a few years, therefore, I hope some elements of the tax remain, the exceptions perhaps and a limit on tax spending to a small percentage of the cap. Of course, limits on lenght of deals I imagine will be included and a big issue for owners, as it should be. i can't imagine what nhl owners are thinking with 12 year deals ! But it would be even better if it included proviso's such as the franchise tag, or team options on top of ,say, max 4 year deals. Building a team is hard because it involves predicting the future, and i hope they are able to give themselves the tools and flexibility to do so for the long term well as well as the ability to rectify in the shor term. Remember, hard caps will make trades even more difficult, and more about numbers than anything else.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie DoubleR_T's Avatar
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    I don't think this is really a bad situation for the Raptors at all, while we are a well-financed team who given the opportunity would spend above the cap to win, if Bosh leaves next year it will illustrate how it isn't as easy as you would think to spend that money. The Raps are regularly around the cap right now, a hard cap would eventually level the playing field a bit, and at this point I'll take anything that gives the Raps if not a better chance, just a totally different situation and marketplace for contracts. In a hard cap league maybe players would have less ability and/or willingness to shun Toronto.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    I called this a long time ago. We're seeing a depression in the states and all indications, regardless of what Obama says, points to things getting worse. Revenues are shrinking and half the league is in the red. Things need to change and the NBA owners seem like their ready to bust some skulls just like the NHL did. I read something last year where one person in the league front office suggested that there are teams who would lose less money in a lockout than they were currently losing by paying the bills the come with being in operation(ie: player salaries, travel expenses, etc.). Half the league needed a loan to pay the bills last season. The owners will lock the players out for as long as needed, just like the NHL did. Just like the NHLPA did, the players in the NBA will cave. A lot of these guys live really expensive lifestyles and they're going to feel the squeeze very quickly in a lock out.

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    "It's going to be a nuclear winter for them," Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban predicted.

    "I think most of the teams, there'll be some sort of an effect," New Jersey Nets president Rod Thorn said.

    "I can't speak for 30 owners and management teams," said Gregg Popovich, the San Antonio Spurs' coach and president. "But I'm sure that tightening of the belt is something that goes through every organization's head, for obvious reasons. We're all part of the economy, too."
    Scripps News

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