Zach Lowe on Lowry, Derozan and the 2014 All-Star Game

[Axel]

Here I thought this thread was going to be a nice read on people's opinions regarding the all-star selections.

But sadly, another Demar contract argument.

On topic, I think it might be a good thing for the Raptors that Lowry got snubbed by the other coaches. One, the obvious motivation factor is good. But more importantly, it might send the message to Lowry that we are the only team that appreciate him, the only team that understand him and that could help in contract negotiations. "Well Kyle, you could sign with (insert team name here) for that, but does that coach really want you? How about you stay here with us for $1.5M less?"

[ebrian]

Ha! Great wishful thinking there Axel

[Axel]

Ha! Great wishful thinking there Axel

Well the $1.5 M part is a bit of an exaggeration, but the overall premise is valid. Lowry has long played with a chip on his shoulder because he has constantly been overlooked in his career (back-up, trade, back-up, trade) and playing on that mental aspect is a strong position for Masai in contract negotiations. Never doubt the power of job appreciation by an employer. The fact that the East's coaches were the one who snubbed him isn't something he will forget.

[ezz_bee]

Here I thought this thread was going to be a nice read on people's opinions regarding the all-star selections.

But sadly, another Demar contract argument.

On topic, I think it might be a good thing for the Raptors that Lowry got snubbed by the other coaches. One, the obvious motivation factor is good. But more importantly, it might send the message to Lowry that we are the only team that appreciate him, the only team that understand him and that could help in contract negotiations. "Well Kyle, you could sign with (insert team name here) for that, but does that coach really want you? How about you stay here with us for $1.5M less?"

Well the $1.5 M part is a bit of an exaggeration, but the overall premise is valid. Lowry has long played with a chip on his shoulder because he has constantly been overlooked in his career (back-up, trade, back-up, trade) and playing on that mental aspect is a strong position for Masai in contract negotiations. Never doubt the power of job appreciation by an employer. The fact that the East's coaches were the one who snubbed him isn't something he will forget.

Money certainly talks in this league, but I like the way you think. Who knows maybe that line of reasoning will mean something to Lowry. Maybe they can stipulate a certain amount of hugs from Masai to Lowry per season in the contract. Who doesn't like hugs!?!?!?

[salmon]

Colangelo made the wrong call. He should have made a low offer. If DD takes it, win for TO. If DD refuses we have his RFA rights and DD plays the market, which after last season, wasn't very good, and we may have gotten him for a better price because his value was lower.

It was the wrong call. Colangelo over bid against himself. That is stupid management.

LOL, and you have 6 friends (likes) that also insist on sticking to the old narrative. Amazing how people can be so determined to hang their expertise on hindsight whenever it suits, but when hindsight doesn't fit the narrative, will stubbornly stick to what they believed in the past, because "we may have" been right, and that makes management stupid. Hindsight is brilliant, until it's not, then it's stupid, lol

FYI, many teams lock up their coveted assets early, rather than let others define the price. In recent history:
Atlanta- Horford
Boston- Rondo
Chicago - Noah
Denver - Lawson
GSW - Curry
Houston - Harden
Indiana - Paul George
Clippers - Griffin
Memphis - Gasol
- Conley
Minny - Love
OKC - Westbrook
- Ibaka
Portland - Aldridge
Washington - Wall

Were those teams, and many more before exercising "stupid management" by not letting the market define the price? Rather simplistic is it not? Obviously, you and others didn't covet DeMar (too bad, your bad), but the Raptors organization did, and faith in him, and the much greater knowledge of him they had, has proven to be a wise one. That's fact, not your suppositions. Of course they could have let him test the same market that Tyreke effing Evans got $1.5M more/yr from, and either wound up paying him more, or maybe landed a haul of Vasquez and 2 2nd rounders!!! Damn, those Sactown guys sure know how to manage well!! But, but, but, MAYBE we could have got him for less, sending him, and others, the message that hard work and loyalty doesn't mean a damn to this organization, and that we'll only pay you what others dictate your worth to us.

All those other GMs that sign guys early are just stupid. The damn league is full of fools! They would be wise to listen to RR members.

[Katman]

Colangelo made the wrong call. He should have made a low offer. If DD takes it, win for TO. If DD refuses we have his RFA rights and DD plays the market, which after last season, wasn't very good, and we may have gotten him for a better price because his value was lower.

It was the wrong call. Colangelo over bid against himself. That is stupid management.

Or he accepts the 1 year qualifying offer and becomes an UFA!

[mcHAPPY]

Or he accepts the 1 year qualifying offer and becomes an UFA!

Always a risk but assuming he signed for a minimum of $6.5m per year in doing that he'd likely leave $20m on the table.

Another issue with contract was not only was he paid on potential at that time he was also given flexibility of player option for year 4. To me if you're paying for potential that 4th year should be a team option.

Anyways all kind of irrelevant at this point. It is what it is.

[stooley]

Always a risk but assuming he signed for a minimum of $6.5m per year in doing that he'd likely leave $20m on the table.

Another issue with contract was not only was he paid on potential at that time he was also given flexibility of player option for year 4. To me if you're paying for potential that 4th year should be a team option.

Anyways all kind of irrelevant at this point. It is what it is.

The bold, I agree with 100% percent. The rest of the deal is understandable to me. The player option on the final year just seems like too much.

[ceez]

Let's all agree to never speak of Demar's contract again until it comes time to resign if he's around

[Superjudge]

Dennis Lindsey, formerly of the Spurs FO, and now doing a very good job with the Jazz, is doing this very thing with Gordon Hayward (letting the market determine his contract as an RFA). If you think that he's being naive and using a fantasy sports mentality, go right ahead. I think small markets have a smaller margin of error than big ones.

Honestly, I can't comment on that dynamic, I really don't follow utah at all. I follow the Raptors however, and I know for fact that the franchise has recognized stability, and trust building with its players as a pretty major mandate. Part of this is treating your top guys with respect. After the Carter years, and the Bosh fiasco, it made sense to send DD, and the entire team a message. He was extended, in good faith, and it was a wise move.

I wouldn't refute your stance about savings, that part is clear.... but nickel and diming your top guy, a guy who has stayed severely loyal, and who had shown improvements and a dedication to self improvement was a no brainer. Sometimes the moves you make with personnel can't be about money, I guess this is why I used fantasy sports line... if it were just about money, than sure you do whatever..... but there is simply more involved.

[OldSkoolCool]

Not so sure. We also could have faced a situation where a team like New Orleans offer him a contract (say similar to Tyreke Evans); about $1.5 M higher on avg than DeMar's per season.

You never know how teams value guys around the league. I can live with DeMar @ $9.5 M per season; all star -- 24 years old -- good character. He is now truly a 'coveted trade asset' & he's in his first year of his contract. Next year, he has very good trade value & a struggling team may want to trade for him since he is a marketable name - sort of like the Pelicans, Pistons, Cavs, Kings situation.

If he makes the All Star game again, that makes his contract look even sweeter -- good chip esp @ deadline or draft night 2015. He's a good asset to have & he's doing an admirable job as the #1 option right now. Can't hate on Colangelo for this one.

But the Fields deal ……… that one stings alot

See, everyone is like "it didn't work out too badly in the end", however it could have went the way of Fields contract just as easily, in which case we would be stuck with a terrible albatross of a contract.

I need to remind you that at the deal needs to be critiqued based on when the contract was given, therefor we need to look at what DD was doing at said time (ie after his THIRD year)

After his third year, DD was an extremely inefficient, high usage, poor defensive player with almost no other talents besides taking a lot of shots on a shitty team. The best way to proceed at this point, would be to offer him his basic rookie extension. A good example/comparison for this would be what Charlotte did with Henderson. Henderson was only slightly worse than DD (but not by much), he took the extension of 6 mil flat. That is step one.

Step 2: Say DD declines. Let him play out the year and evaluate him based on improvements seen in his fourth year (rather than just his first three years). Let him go to RFA. This is only risky when you are dealing with a player who has a high market value (which DD didn't, and don't say he did), or if you are financially too close to the cap to resign him. Neither scenario was the case, we had plenty of cap room and DD didn't have much value.

Step 3: Market evaluation. Well in his fourth year, DD and Henderson put up very similar seasons once again, and seeing as Henderson had already accepted his 3 year 18 million deal, the market was set for DD to be anywhere from that 6-7 range, with teams offering somewhere between 1-2 million over that if they wanted to "steal" him. This puts him at a cost that is LOWER than the deal that Colangelo offered him after HIS THIRD YEAR.

Colangelo was an idiot. Amir Johnson said he would have accepted a much cheaper deal (3 mil I heard), but BC overbid against himself then as well, imagine Amir on a 3 mil contract?? Oh, he did it with Jose as well....and Bargnani. And then there is the whole Turk/Fields

Don't try and justify what Colangelo did, it was wrong for being paid 5 million to run a team. If I can figure it out being paid nothing, I expect him to figure it out with that salary.

FYI, many teams lock up their coveted assets early, rather than let others define the price. In recent history:
Atlanta- Horford
Boston- Rondo
Chicago - Noah
Denver - Lawson
GSW - Curry
Houston - Harden
Indiana - Paul George
Clippers - Griffin
Memphis - Gasol
- Conley
Minny - Love
OKC - Westbrook
- Ibaka
Portland - Aldridge
Washington - Wall

I'm glad you brought this up.

I can explain why those teams gave out the contracts before they hit RFA.

Remember this is at the end of DD's THIRD YEAR (time contract was given). For simplification I will assume everyone has a flat deal (ie average over their careers). Also I will use WS/48 of the year leading up to the contract extension. This will give you an idea of how much they were producing, for their extension size. Is that reasonable??

DD WS/48 = 0.054, 4 year 38 mil. - 9.5 /yr
Horford WS/48 = 0.183, 5 year 60 mil. - 12 /yr
Rondo WS/48 = 0.179, 5 year 55 mil. - 11 /yr
Noah WS/48 = 0.154, 5 year 60 mil. - 12 /yr
Lawson WS/48 = 0.157, 4 year 48mil - 12 /yr
Curry WS/48 = 0.144, 4 year 44 mil - 11 /yr
Harden WS/48 = 0.230, 5 year 80 mil. - 16 /yr
George WS/48 = 0.145, 5 year 90 mil. - 18 /yr <------- outlier, playoffs showed future worth
Griffin WS/48 = 0.185, 5 year 95 mil. - 19 /yr
Gasol WS/48 = 0.146, 4 year 55 mil. - 13.75 /yr
Conley WS/48 = 0.074, 5 year 40 mil. - 8 /yr <------ Closest comparison, Conley more efficient, cheaper
Love WS/48 = 0.223, 4 year 62 mil. - 15.5 /yr
Westbrook WS/48 = 0.163, 5 year 80 mil. - 16 /yr
Ibaka WS/48 = 0.167, 4 year 48 mil. - 12 /yr
Aldridge WS/48 = 0.151, 5 years 65 mil. - 13 /yr
Wall WS/48 = 0.134, 5 year 80 mil. - 16 /yr

The reason why these players were picked up, was because they produced more than THREE TIMES the amount of wins that DD did, and only got deals for, on average, 4 million more.

As you can see from this list, DD was given a contract that far exceeds his worth in terms of wins produced. A lot of these contracts were also given under the OLD CBA where there was more wriggle room. DD was given an extreme overpayment under the old CBA, but now also factor in that Colangelo did not take in to account the new, tighter CBA.

You made a reference to hind sight. In hind sight, DD's contract was TERRIBLE. However, it has worked out due to the knowledge we have today. But at the time of conception, there is nothing good about what Colangelo did.

The market had set the price. It was below 8 mil/year (as seen by Conley, who was BETTER than DD). That is why Colangelo made the wrong move.

You keep saying that we are making the assumption that the market would have gotten us a better deal for DD. This is not an assumption, this is a fact, because we have the market prices of all the players, and it would have ended up between 7-8 million.

TL;DR Colangelo is an idiot, the DD deal was bad. If you want proof, read it. It's all there

[salmon]

"fact", "proof", lol, yeah okay.

[wallz]

See, everyone is like "it didn't work out too badly in the end", however it could have went the way of Fields contract just as easily, in which...

...

Oldschoolfool at it again..


lol just kidding, great post.

[JimiCliff]

LOL, and you have 6 friends (likes) that also insist on sticking to the old narrative. Amazing how people can be so determined to hang their expertise on hindsight whenever it suits, but when hindsight doesn't fit the narrative, will stubbornly stick to what they believed in the past, because "we may have" been right, and that makes management stupid. Hindsight is brilliant, until it's not, then it's stupid, lol

FYI, many teams lock up their coveted assets early, rather than let others define the price. In recent history:
Atlanta- Horford
Boston- Rondo
Chicago - Noah
Denver - Lawson
GSW - Curry
Houston - Harden
Indiana - Paul George
Clippers - Griffin
Memphis - Gasol
- Conley
Minny - Love
OKC - Westbrook
- Ibaka
Portland - Aldridge
Washington - Wall

And, of course, the grandaddy of them all:

Toronto - Bargnani

I bring this up only because it gives us some insight into one of Colangelo's defining traits as a GM: he was a gambler.

With Bargnani, he gambled, and lost. With DeRozan, he gambled, and won.

[JimiCliff]

Oldschoolfool at it again..


lol just kidding, great post.

Wallz, change your avatar plz.