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Thread: Kyle Lowry's season vs the All-Time Raps PGs

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Default Kyle Lowry's season vs the All-Time Raps PGs

    I started thinking about this when the RR writer asked for topic ideas; how does Lowry's season stand up against former Raptors PG seasons?

    So I took all the Raptors PG in history, and selected what I tought was reflective of the 6 best individual seasons (statistically speaking). This isn't an all-time debate (way too early), but merely assessing where this season ranks in Raptors PG lore.

    The 6 players/seasons in comparison are:
    Jose Calderon 07-08*
    TJ Ford 07-08
    Mike James 05-06
    Damon Stoudemire 96-97
    Alvin Williams 02-03
    Kyle Lowry current

    *Jose's best season according to his PER was 2007-2008, so I selected it over other great seasons he had. His name litters the top of the listing.

    To try and look at this relatively objectively, I decided to rank each player (1-6) in categories for both offensive, defensive categories, and included Team Record that season as well (just win baby!). The player who had the highest stat, received 6 points, and the lowest 1 point. Ties were used in several categories. Afterwards, each player was given a total score from their 14 categorical scores. I chose to not factor in things like Minutes played per game, games played etc because in the end, this is a comparison of what was/is.

    Offensive Categories

    Scoring PPG

    James 20.3
    Damon 20.2
    Lowry 16.6
    Alvin 13.2
    Ford 12.1
    Jose 11.2

    Assists per game
    Damon 8.8
    Jose 8.3
    Lowry 7.5
    Ford 6.1
    James 5.8
    Alvin 5.3

    Assist %
    Ford 44.4
    Jose 42.3
    Damon 38.2
    Lowry 34.7
    James 28.2
    Alvin 27.7

    3P%
    James 44.2
    Jose 42.9
    Lowry 39.4
    Damon 35.5
    Alvin 32.9
    Ford 29.4

    TS%
    Jose 60.7
    James 58.3
    Lowry 57.9
    Ford 53.3
    Damon 51.6
    Alvin 50.8

    RPG
    Lowry 4.3
    Damon 4.1
    James 3.3
    Alvin 3.1
    Jose 2.9
    Ford 2

    TO%
    Alvin 11.2
    James 13
    Lowry 13.5
    Jose 14.2
    Ford 15
    Damon 15.4

    Usage%
    Ford 26.8
    Damon 25.3
    James 25
    Lowry 20.7
    Alvin 19.7
    Jose 16.8

    Ortg
    Jose 127
    Lowry 120
    James 115
    Damon 109
    Ford 109
    Alvin 108

    Defensive Categories

    DRtg

    Lowry 104
    Alvin 108
    Ford 108
    Jose 109
    Damon 111
    James 115

    SPG
    Lowry 1.6
    Damon 1.5
    Alvin 1.4
    Ford 1.1
    Jose 1.1
    James 0.9

    DWS
    Lowry 2.2
    Jose 2.2
    Damon 1.8
    Alvin 1.2
    Ford 1.1
    James -0.1

    PER
    Jose 20.5
    Ford 20.3
    Lowry 20
    James 19.8
    Damon 18.1
    Alvin 16.7

    Team Success
    Lowry on pace for 43 wins
    Jose 41-41 - 2nd in Atlantic
    Ford 41-41 - 2nd in Atlantic
    Damon 30-52 - 8th in Central Divison
    Mike James 27-55 - 4th in Atlantic
    Alvin 24-58 - 7th in Central


    ~~~~

    In the end, the results are:

    Lowry 65
    Jose 57
    Damon 50
    Ford 46
    James 43
    Alvin 34

    You can certainly argue which categories should or shouldn't be included but in the end I think the results are fairly realistic to the eye-test. Damon should perhaps receive bonus points for leading a 2nd year expansion team, while Jose and Ford split duties that season. I think the case could be made to swap Jose and Damon based on those factors, but overall I think the results are good.

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    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Lowry has had the best year for a PG ever in the hisotry of the franchise.

    I'd give extra bonus points to Lowry for leading a competitive/good team.

    MVP of the Raps - hands down.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    So does this mean we should resign the guy?

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote JawsGT wrote: View Post
    So does this mean we should resign the guy?
    Different conversation. Lowry's current season vs long-term sustainability is not the same thing.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    But we have to talk about something, and the numbers are clear in what they suggest, that he is the best PG we've had using a small sample size.

    Well, I'll say this, it was a nice analysis, I like how you layed it out. And I am also surprised by where Williams ended up. And, one other thing, the Raps have never really had a long-term PG that performed at a high level. Jose is the closest, obviously, but he was always sharing duties with another guard or competing for/with the back-up/starter. It would be nice to take advantage of this situation and lock up Lowry for a few seasons. Some stability at the position would be nice even with the uncertainty surrounding Lowry's play.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote JawsGT wrote: View Post
    But we have to talk about something, and the numbers are clear in what they suggest, that he is the best PG we've had using a small sample size.

    Well, I'll say this, it was a nice analysis, I like how you layed it out. And I am also surprised by where Williams ended up. And, one other thing, the Raps have never really had a long-term PG that performed at a high level. Jose is the closest, obviously, but he was always sharing duties with another guard or competing for/with the back-up/starter. It would be nice to take advantage of this situation and lock up Lowry for a few seasons. Some stability at the position would be nice even with the uncertainty surrounding Lowry's play.
    Inevitably, this thread would turn to Lowry's contract

    I say resign him. He's played at near all-star levels before. He's only 27. I'm not sure if he's truly matured or not, but as long as we don't have a PG controversy (like we always do), then Lowry hasn't had any other problems before.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote JawsGT wrote: View Post
    So does this mean we should resign the guy?
    I say absolutely. Unless - like everyone else - Ujiri is able to grab a good return.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie 92TillInfinity's Avatar
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    Quote ReubenJRD wrote: View Post
    I say absolutely. Unless - like everyone else - Ujiri is able to grab a good return.
    Exactly this. Either lock him up or get some value. Can't let a commodity like Lowry just walk away from the team in the offseason. At the same time, don't make a trade like your pants are on fire (Re: Babcock/Vince/The Williams'). I realize I'm speaking in generalities, but it's not rocket science. How Masai handles the situation? I've got confidence he'll do the right thing.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    There's more to re-signing Lowry this summer than just the Raptors choosing to do so. Once KL hits free agency, he'll also have to choose the Raptors to a certain extent. I don't expect the market to be nutty for him but he'll have his suitors - especially if he puts together a nice back half of the season and a solid playoff round or two. Complete speculation on my part but I think the reason we still see his name coming up in the rumour mill is because Masai is still open to turning a non-surety into a really good asset or two if he can swing it. Seems like a real Masai-y thing to do.

    Good post though. I can't remember any other point guards imposing their will on a game like Lowry has the last six weeks. It makes sense that he would score highly.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Looks like Masai did the right thing.

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    Raptors Republic Starter OptimalOptimist's Avatar
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    Time to quote myself :

    Damn, just read this and we might have one heck of a bargain with that deal.

    He scored more than Deron Williams. He shot as accurately as Damian Lillard. He averaged more assists and fewer turnovers than Kyrie Irving. His 3.02 assist-to-turnover ratio was even better than the likes of noted assist gurus Rajon Rondo (2.97), Steve Nash (2.77), and Ty Lawson (2.72). He grabbed more boards than every NBA point guard not named Michael Carter-Williams. He stole the ball just as many times per game as Mike Conley, the previous year’s leader in total steals and All-Defensive honoree (second team).

    On the more advanced metric side, he was 8th in the entire league in offensive win shares (8.4), 8th in total win shares (11.7), and 10th in win shares per 48 minutes (.197). He was 10th on our NBA Player Rankings with a nERD score of 10.7.

    What kind of company does one keep up in that range of win share and nERD supremacy? Well, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Chris Paul, James Harden, and Stephen Curry are the only players in the whole NBA that ranked ahead of Lowry in each of those all-encompassing categories. That’s it. Five guys. Not a single one of which that finished lower than 2nd Team All-NBA.
    https://www.numberfire.com/nba/news/...oronto-raptors
    Myself (March 2014):
    The raptors are a tremendous young team and will win a championship in the following five years.

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