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Thread: Draft Burn-Out - Is Boeheim right about 1st rounders?

  1. #21
    Raptors Republic All-Star Letter N's Avatar
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    Jay Williams got in a motorcycle accident, that's not exactly the same thing as being a bust.

  2. #22
    Raptors Republic Superstar TRex's Avatar
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    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    Jay Williams got in a motorcycle accident, that's not exactly the same thing as being a bust.
    Yep. Jay Williams was a hell of a player before the accident.
    Follow me on Twitter - @11_RRyan

  3. #23
    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    Jay Williams got in a motorcycle accident, that's not exactly the same thing as being a bust.
    Which is why I noted injury next to his name on the main list. But regardless, it is a complete list. Circumstance happens.

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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    I agree with this.

    But I think in Ennis' case, it's not a real issue. He's far more advanced than his age from the perspective of skills you want in a PG. He does need to get stronger....but training is likely to be far better with NBA level facilities and trainers. He does need to work on his scoring a bit, but the spacing and type of game is different enough that I think for a smart player like him, the sooner you get him exposed to the NBA, the better it will be for his development as a scorer. He doesn't need another year of cram-the-paint zone defenses and poorly spaced basketball to help with his scoring/shooting (his stroke is actually pretty good too).
    Have just seen highlights of Ennis but the player I had in mind when I wrote that was our very own DD. I am not trying to start another DD-hater string of posts here but only to mention that so much of his skills (some basic) development occurred in the NBA. The point being that if it were not the Raps and BC providing heavy & starter minutes while he was able to hone his game he could very well have been one of those busts. To his credit, with all the help he got from the team mgt., he also worked hard...but how many years did it take? Another year or two in college would have been really positive for him. But the reality is that many need the money too so this change has to occur at the league/union level.

  5. #25
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote Bendit wrote: View Post
    Have just seen highlights of Ennis but the player I had in mind when I wrote that was our very own DD. I am not trying to start another DD-hater string of posts here but only to mention that so much of his skills (some basic) development occurred in the NBA. The point being that if it were not the Raps and BC providing heavy & starter minutes while he was able to hone his game he could very well have been one of those busts. To his credit, with all the help he got from the team mgt., he also worked hard...but how many years did it take? Another year or two in college would have been really positive for him. But the reality is that many need the money too so this change has to occur at the league/union level.
    Oh for sure. And like I said, I agree with you, at least in a general sense. Many players could benefit from 2-3 years of college. DD is definitely one of them, and I think if his mom wasn't sick and he didn't desperately need security of an NBA contract, he very well could have stayed.

    But I also think there are guys whose maturity on the court is beyond their years. This doesn't mean their game is perfect, but that their growth curve at the college level is pretty limited. Ennis is a guy I see like that. The best examples at the top this year are Randle and Parker. Both guys have mature games that don't really need more reps against college level competition. Could it help them? Sure, maybe. But could jumping to the NBA to benefit from higher quality training and competition help more? Yeah, I think it's entirely possible.

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  7. #26
    Raptors Republic Superstar isaacthompson's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Great thread.

    No one really talks about how huge of a bust Johnny Flynn was. In my opinion it was one of the worst draft mistakes this decade. I think at the time the Wolves were known for drafting PGs when they didnt need them.
    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    The Flynn pick was awful but doubly so because they had drafted Rubio in the same draft!!!
    Made me think of this article from the summer league. Sad.

    He told a reporter after the game about his summer goal. “Once in the NBA you get marked as damaged goods, it’s like a big X is on your forehead and nobody wants to deal with you,” Flynn said from a corner of the Cox Pavilion shortly before the national anthem signaled the beginning of another game. “Just to get up and down the court and show people that I can still play the game and that I’m healthy and that I’ve been healthy for years.”
    http://grantland.com/features/the-st...k-jonny-flynn/
    Twitter - @thekid_it

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  9. #27
    Raptors Republic Starter torch19's Avatar
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    It's tough to say whether staying another year is the 'right' thing to do. I guess it depends on the college program (how much do they emphasize skill development vs team principles). The draft is usually a product of all the hype coming from scouts everywhere & it's hard to sell the idea of passing up guaranteed money for another year of college experience.

    Each player is at a different point in their learning curves at any given point. The good thing about college is the fact that games are spread out & it leaves a lot more time for weight-building & skill development; which is tougher to accomplish in the NBA given all the travel & lack of practice time.

    The downside in college is the lack of NBA talent to go up against. At the end of the day, a college program has the responsibility to win for their university first. We see a lot of teams using a 6'7" player at the 4 spot -- because it makes sense to use them there where majority of the competition feature players of the same size @ that position. At the end of the day, is skill development useful when those skills are not usable at the next level?

    I'm curious to see how the NBA will expand the D-League because I see it as a viable tool for player development -- more NBA calibre competition, easier transition from D-League to NBA in terms of length/athleticism, less rigorous travel schedule = more practice time. A player can focus more on skill development that he will use in actual competition in the 'Majors' under the same system the team operates under.

    At the end of the day, the draft will have a few All-Stars & a few busts (out of the league within x years). Majority will be role players. The numbers may fluctuate from year to year but this normal distribution is what it is; normal.

    In terms of whether Ennis decides to stay, that's a decision that he has to make based on his situation. His head coach has the responsibility to make sure Syracuse remains competitive so there is obviously some bias there.
    “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

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  10. #28
    Raptors Republic Starter 3inthekeon's Avatar
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    Using Axel list of 22 lottery busts, here's a breakdown, which doesn't really make a case for potential lottery picks staying in school .

    High School: 1
    International: 2
    Seniors: 6
    Juniors: 6
    Sophomores: 5
    Freshman:2

    One of the 2 freshman busts was Dujaun Wagner who suffered through ulcerative colitis, which had as much to do as anything for his career being derailed. I also remember the Bargs draft. If Joakim Noah hadn't gone back to Florida, he may well have ended up as the 1st pick, and definitely nowhere near the #9 pick where he ended up the following year. Boeheim is saying what's best for Boeheim.

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  12. #29
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    The 2014 draft thread had a posting (by a brilliant member) showing SI's Interview with Jim Boeheim touched on whether Ennis will turn pro. Here is the quick Q&A I want to focus on.

    SI.com: Do you think he'll turn pro after the season is over?

    Boeheim: I don't think so. I think he knows and his father knows that he's a really good college player. He has to become a better shooter and get stronger to go to the next level. He'd go in the first round, but look at the number of first-round picks who are already out of the league in the last two years. It's a huge number."

    Well, now I have to look for myself.

    NBA CBA rules, first round picks are guaranteed 2 year contracts with a team option for 2 more years. I thought it was worth while exploring, how many 1st round picks completely flame out within the first 5 years? I am not including International players that didn't come over, as that is different.

    Here is the list of players since the 2000 draft:

    2000 - Jerome Moiso (11th), Courtney Alexander (13th), Jason Collier (15th), Donnell Harvery (22nd), Mamadou N'Diaye (26th), Erick Barkley (28th)
    2001 - Rodney White (9th), Kedreick Brown (11th). Kirk Haston (16th), Michael Bradley (17th), Joseph Forte (21st), Jeryl Sasser (22nd)
    2002 - Jay Williams (2nd) - Injury, Dajuan Wagner (6th). Jiri Welsch (16th), Curtis Borchardt (18th), Ryan Humphrey (19th), Qyntel Woods (21), Casey Jacobsen (22nd), Frank Williams (25th), Chris Jefferies (27th), Dan Dickau (28th)
    2003 - Mike Sweetney (9th), Reece Gaines (15th), Troy Bell (16th)
    2004 - Rafael Araujo (8th), Luke Jackson (10th), Robert Swift (12th), Kirk Snyder (16th), David Harrison (29th)
    2005 - Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th), Julius Hodge (20th), Wayne Simien (29th)
    2006 - Adam Morrison (3rd), Patrick O'Bryant (9th), Mouhamed Sene (10th), Cedric Simmons (15th), Oleksiy Pecherov (18th), Quincy Douby (19th), Marcus Williams (22nd), Josh Boone (23rd), Sergio Rodriguez (27th), Maurice Ager (28th), Mardy Collins (29th)
    2007 - Yi Jianlian (6th), Acie Law (11th), Julian Wright (13), Al Thornton (14th), Sean Williams (17th), Javaris Crittenton (19th), Rudy Fernandez* (24th), Morris Almond (25th), Alando Tucker (29th)
    2008 - Joe Alexander (8th), JR Giddens (30th)
    2009 - Jonny Flynn (6th, Syracuse), Terrence Williams (11th), Christian Eyenga (30th)
    2010 - Craig Brackins (21), Dominique Jones (25th)
    2011 - JaJuan Johnson (27th)
    2012 - Royce White (16th) - unusual case. Staying in College would have unlikely affected his career.

    *Rudy Fernandez is talented enough and was largely due to unhappiness with playing time/contract.

    ~~

    So in 12 years, we have a total of 63 players who were out of the league within 5 years of being drafted in the first round. That is 17.5% of all first round draftees or about 5 per year.

    So for Boeheim's example, it's actually below norm as a total of 4 players from the last 3 drafts (not 2 as he referenced) are out. Some years are obviously higher than others. 30 of 63 players were drafted in the years 2002, 2006 or 2007. So almost 50% of all draft flame-outs in the past 12 years, can be attributed to a quarter (3) of the drafts. These numbers will move a bit as the last few drafts still have time to add some names.

    Of these players, I thought I'd break it down to show lottery picks that flamed out. Here's the list:

    2000 - Jerome Moiso (11th), Courtney Alexander (13th)
    2001 - Rodney White (9th), Kedreick Brown (11th)
    2002 - Jay Williams (2nd), Dajuan Wagner (6th)
    2003 - Mike Sweetney (9th)
    2004 - Rafael Araujo (8th), Luke Jackson (10th), Robert Swift (12th)
    2005 - Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th)
    2006 - Adam Morrison (3rd), Patrick O'Bryant (9th), Mouhamed Sene (10th)
    2007 - Yi Jianlian (6th), Acie Law (11th), Julian Wright (13), Al Thornton (14th)
    2008 - Joe Alexander (8th)
    2009 - Jonny Flynn (6th, Syracuse), Terrence Williams (11th)
    2010 -
    2011 -
    2012 -

    Down to 22 players; or 13% of all lottery picks; which equates to 1.8 players per draft.


    So, statistically speaking, 5 players this year will be out of the league within 5 years. 1 or 2 of those players will be a lottery pick. Who will they be?

    The Raps had only 2 picks make the list, Michael Bradley and Hafa. But, if you look through the full lists, you'll see several more names of players that made it through Toronto on their way out the door.

    Link for data:
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...der_by=year_id
    Good work!

  13. #30
    Raptors Republic Starter peanutwoozle's Avatar
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    Does Gerald Green count? He was out of the league for a while.

    One more that was forgotten was Alexis Ajinca (20th pick) in 2008
    Last edited by peanutwoozle; Tue Feb 11th, 2014 at 01:15 PM.

  14. #31
    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote peanutwoozle wrote: View Post
    Does Gerald Green count? He was out of the league for a while.

    One more that was forgotten was Alexis Ajinca (20th pick) in 2008
    Ajinca is back and with the Pelicans. Played in 27 games this year with 15 starts, so he had an hiatus but is back. Same as Green, so neither player fit the "burn-out" qualification used.

  15. #32
    Raptors Republic Starter 3inthekeon's Avatar
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    The other aspect in this discussion deals with projected lottery picks going back to school and increasing their draft stock the following year. It seems to usually go the other way. I mentioned Noah dropping by staying in school. Sullinger dropped a lot after his injury and Smart has hurt his stock this year by going back to OSU. Anyone with a better memory know of other probable lottery picks who climbed or dropped by going back to school?

  16. #33
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    Quote 3inthekeon wrote: View Post
    The other aspect in this discussion deals with projected lottery picks going back to school and increasing their draft stock the following year. It seems to usually go the other way. I mentioned Noah dropping by staying in school. Sullinger dropped a lot after his injury and Smart has hurt his stock this year by going back to OSU. Anyone with a better memory know of other probable lottery picks who climbed or dropped by going back to school?
    I remember back in the 90's Derek Anderson was supposed to be a top-5 pick, went back for senior year, tore his ACL, dropped to 13 in next draft and was never that great of a pro.

    Also I'm old.

  17. #34
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Here's an idea:

    Could the nba use the ncaa as a true farm league?

    Players could be drafted but continue to play in the ncaa up until their fourth year at the franchise's discretion.
    Players would only be paid half of their contract, it would count against the cap.
    Team's would be allowed to maintain the rights over their players a little longer. For every extra year in college, an extra year onto the rookie contract, or something of the sort?

    This will probably never happen, but it's an interesting idea.

    EDIT: they might have to earn their full pay, to decrease the incentive to always leave players in the NCAA for a full four years. I think some kind of balance could be struck here that creates interesting decisions.
    Last edited by stooley; Tue Feb 11th, 2014 at 03:48 PM.

  18. #35
    Raptors Republic All-Star OldSkoolCool's Avatar
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    ^I like this. College ball would get some stability and benefit from it. NBA would prosper from it more as well.

    Could introduce a third round in the draft.

  19. #36
    Raptors Republic Starter 3inthekeon's Avatar
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    Doesn't the NHL draft college players? Players can continue to play in the NCAA until they agree to sign with the team that drafted them. Can't see the NCAA allowing players that are being paid by pro teams to keep their eligibility, at least any time soon.

  20. #37
    Raptors Republic All-Star OldSkoolCool's Avatar
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    Well the NCAA is not the greatest example of management skills...

    But I think if players had the option to stay in college it would benefit their program even more

  21. #38
    Raptors Republic All-Star Letter N's Avatar
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    Quote 3inthekeon wrote: View Post
    Doesn't the NHL draft college players? Players can continue to play in the NCAA until they agree to sign with the team that drafted them. Can't see the NCAA allowing players that are being paid by pro teams to keep their eligibility, at least any time soon.
    NHL does but their contract, and their money, doesn't kick in until they leave school (graduation or by choice).

  22. #39
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    NHL does but their contract, and their money, doesn't kick in until they leave school (graduation or by choice).
    Not saying you're suggesting this as an alternative, but this would end up being the exact same as it is right now. Players would still leave early to get their payday.

  23. #40
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote 3inthekeon wrote: View Post
    Can't see the NCAA allowing players that are being paid by pro teams to keep their eligibility, at least any time soon.
    This is why it probably won't ever happen. It would work though. Maybe have the players get paid into a trust fund or something that they're allowed to access when they leave school? Is that a loop hole? Or one that the NCAA might allow?

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