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Thread: Draft Burn-Out - Is Boeheim right about 1st rounders?

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Default Draft Burn-Out - Is Boeheim right about 1st rounders?

    The 2014 draft thread had a posting (by a brilliant member) showing SI's Interview with Jim Boeheim touched on whether Ennis will turn pro. Here is the quick Q&A I want to focus on.

    SI.com: Do you think he'll turn pro after the season is over?

    Boeheim: I don't think so. I think he knows and his father knows that he's a really good college player. He has to become a better shooter and get stronger to go to the next level. He'd go in the first round, but look at the number of first-round picks who are already out of the league in the last two years. It's a huge number."

    Well, now I have to look for myself.

    NBA CBA rules, first round picks are guaranteed 2 year contracts with a team option for 2 more years. I thought it was worth while exploring, how many 1st round picks completely flame out within the first 5 years? I am not including International players that didn't come over, as that is different.

    Here is the list of players since the 2000 draft:

    2000 - Jerome Moiso (11th), Courtney Alexander (13th), Jason Collier (15th), Donnell Harvery (22nd), Mamadou N'Diaye (26th), Erick Barkley (28th)
    2001 - Rodney White (9th), Kedreick Brown (11th). Kirk Haston (16th), Michael Bradley (17th), Joseph Forte (21st), Jeryl Sasser (22nd)
    2002 - Jay Williams (2nd) - Injury, Dajuan Wagner (6th). Jiri Welsch (16th), Curtis Borchardt (18th), Ryan Humphrey (19th), Qyntel Woods (21), Casey Jacobsen (22nd), Frank Williams (25th), Chris Jefferies (27th), Dan Dickau (28th)
    2003 - Mike Sweetney (9th), Reece Gaines (15th), Troy Bell (16th)
    2004 - Rafael Araujo (8th), Luke Jackson (10th), Robert Swift (12th), Kirk Snyder (16th), David Harrison (29th)
    2005 - Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th), Julius Hodge (20th), Wayne Simien (29th)
    2006 - Adam Morrison (3rd), Patrick O'Bryant (9th), Mouhamed Sene (10th), Cedric Simmons (15th), Oleksiy Pecherov (18th), Quincy Douby (19th), Marcus Williams (22nd), Josh Boone (23rd), Sergio Rodriguez (27th), Maurice Ager (28th), Mardy Collins (29th)
    2007 - Yi Jianlian (6th), Acie Law (11th), Julian Wright (13), Al Thornton (14th), Sean Williams (17th), Javaris Crittenton (19th), Rudy Fernandez* (24th), Morris Almond (25th), Alando Tucker (29th)
    2008 - Joe Alexander (8th), JR Giddens (30th)
    2009 - Jonny Flynn (6th, Syracuse), Terrence Williams (11th), Christian Eyenga (30th)
    2010 - Craig Brackins (21), Dominique Jones (25th)
    2011 - JaJuan Johnson (27th)
    2012 - Royce White (16th) - unusual case. Staying in College would have unlikely affected his career.

    *Rudy Fernandez is talented enough and was largely due to unhappiness with playing time/contract.

    ~~

    So in 12 years, we have a total of 63 players who were out of the league within 5 years of being drafted in the first round. That is 17.5% of all first round draftees or about 5 per year.

    So for Boeheim's example, it's actually below norm as a total of 4 players from the last 3 drafts (not 2 as he referenced) are out. Some years are obviously higher than others. 30 of 63 players were drafted in the years 2002, 2006 or 2007. So almost 50% of all draft flame-outs in the past 12 years, can be attributed to a quarter (3) of the drafts. These numbers will move a bit as the last few drafts still have time to add some names.

    Of these players, I thought I'd break it down to show lottery picks that flamed out. Here's the list:

    2000 - Jerome Moiso (11th), Courtney Alexander (13th)
    2001 - Rodney White (9th), Kedreick Brown (11th)
    2002 - Jay Williams (2nd), Dajuan Wagner (6th)
    2003 - Mike Sweetney (9th)
    2004 - Rafael Araujo (8th), Luke Jackson (10th), Robert Swift (12th)
    2005 - Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th)
    2006 - Adam Morrison (3rd), Patrick O'Bryant (9th), Mouhamed Sene (10th)
    2007 - Yi Jianlian (6th), Acie Law (11th), Julian Wright (13), Al Thornton (14th)
    2008 - Joe Alexander (8th)
    2009 - Jonny Flynn (6th, Syracuse), Terrence Williams (11th)
    2010 -
    2011 -
    2012 -

    Down to 22 players; or 13% of all lottery picks; which equates to 1.8 players per draft.


    So, statistically speaking, 5 players this year will be out of the league within 5 years. 1 or 2 of those players will be a lottery pick. Who will they be?

    The Raps had only 2 picks make the list, Michael Bradley and Hafa. But, if you look through the full lists, you'll see several more names of players that made it through Toronto on their way out the door.

    Link for data:
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...der_by=year_id

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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Top-10 picks: 12 (9.2%)

    Top-5 picks: 2 (3.1%)


    Really comes as no surprise that the 'guarantee' of drafting a player who will contribute long-term increases the closer you get to the top of the lottery.

    ---

    PS: you actually studied 13 seasons, not 12 (2000-2012 inclusive), so I'm not sure if that impacts your math at all...

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Top-10 picks: 12 (9.2%)

    Top-5 picks: 2 (3.1%)


    Really comes as no surprise that the 'guarantee' of drafting a player who will contribute long-term increases the closer you get to the top of the lottery.

    ---

    PS: you actually studied 13 seasons, not 12 (2000-2012 inclusive), so I'm not sure if that impacts your math at all...
    Touche, but we can probably drop 2012 for now anyway. Overall difference would likely be 1% for total flame-outs.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Re-did the math after CRF's post. Total changes to 16% and lotto picks to 12%.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
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    Nice bit of work. I wonder how many picks in the bottom half of the draft are still in the league 5 years later?

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Puffer wrote: View Post
    Nice bit of work. I wonder how many picks in the bottom half of the draft are still in the league 5 years later?
    Haha feel free to use the link and find out. You can easily switch the search field from 1st to 2nd rounders.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Meh...Jim Boeheim says some random shit.

    Didn't he basically slag all the top prospects in this draft at the beginning of the year?

    I don't read much into anything he says. I also saw a quote somewhere on the net this week from an "NBA executive" that he would take Tyler Ennis as a starting PG over Kyrie Irving today.

    Boeheim's public statements often seem very "agenda" oriented to me. Saying all the top lotto prospects are overrated and none will be NBA franchise players (pretty sure that was the gist of what he said) is a way for him to basically excuse himself from failing to land any of them. And saying Ennis should stay is his way of saying his program (not Ennis' career necessarily) will be better served if Ennis stays, instead of him declaring (and Grant, and Fair) leading to a down year next year for the Orange....especially if he again doesn't manage to recruit any of the top lotto prospects next year.

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    Boeheim has the top team in NCAA -- recruiting will not be a problem. Also, what he said about this years freshmen turned out to be pretty accurate. The only thing I don't like is him exposing Ennis' weakness to the press. Wiggins' coach did the same thing. What's up with that?

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote blackjitsu wrote: View Post
    The only thing I don't like is him exposing Ennis' weakness to the press. Wiggins' coach did the same thing. What's up with that?
    I don't really have a problem with that. The whole concept of prospects refusing workouts to hide their weaknesses annoys me. I like transparency.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Great thread.

    No one really talks about how huge of a bust Johnny Flynn was. In my opinion it was one of the worst draft mistakes this decade. I think at the time the Wolves were known for drafting PGs when they didnt need them.
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Interesting stuff!
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Here's a Grantland article that pertains to Boeheim's quote. It's more focused on Smart, but also touches on player's decisions to stay an extra year. Eh, I thought it was a good read.

    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/le...marts-mistake/

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Isn't the average lifespan of an NBA player ~ 5 years? It obviously changes depending on the criteria but I think that is generally the case. Here's one link I found:

    http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.c...ayers-details/

    So, I guess I don't really understand the point here....

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    Boeheim said some things to try to prevent his star player from bolting to the NBA. Ennis ain't going to check up on stats like that. He's probably already thinking "Oh gosh, I better stay one more year."

    Mission accomplished, Boeheim. Mission accomplished. Orangemen for the win.
    your pal,
    ebrian

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Isn't the average lifespan of an NBA player ~ 5 years? It obviously changes depending on the criteria but I think that is generally the case. Here's one link I found:

    http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.c...ayers-details/

    So, I guess I don't really understand the point here....
    Well these averages include 2nd rounders and undrafted players who get signed to a 10 day contract right?

    So those would really skew the averages.

    EDIT: Ah, minimum 41 games, but still.

    Plus, I think the median number of years played would be more helpful than average number for this context.
    Last edited by stooley; Mon Feb 10th, 2014 at 03:49 PM.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Great thread.

    No one really talks about how huge of a bust Johnny Flynn was. In my opinion it was one of the worst draft mistakes this decade. I think at the time the Wolves were known for drafting PGs when they didnt need them.
    The Flynn pick was awful but doubly so because they had drafted Rubio in the same draft!!!

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote blackjitsu wrote: View Post
    Boeheim has the top team in NCAA -- recruiting will not be a problem. Also, what he said about this years freshmen turned out to be pretty accurate. The only thing I don't like is him exposing Ennis' weakness to the press. Wiggins' coach did the same thing. What's up with that?
    Recruiting has little to do with being the "top team".

    And we don't know if what he said about any of the freshmen is accurate. He did say none of them would be a Tim Duncan or LeBron James....But those are lofty goals. He could be right about that. LeBron James may be the best, or at least most complete, basketball player of all time. Tim Duncan may be the best big man of all time. Plenty of other franchise-altering players who are currently or have previously been in the league and won championships are worse than those guys. They could easily be argued as top 5 all-time players.

    Boeheim has also said he didn't expect Ennis to take the starting job this year and lead them the way he has. So if he can misevaluate his own talent, surely he can do the same for players he sees much more rarely.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    Well these averages include 2nd rounders and undrafted players who get signed to a 10 day contract right?

    So those would really skew the averages.

    EDIT: Ah, minimum 41 games, but still.

    Plus, I think the median number of years played would be more helpful than average number for this context.
    41 games is nothing for a rookie with a 2 year guaranteed deal. Hafa played almost 100 games more than that and he was terrible.

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    Quote blackjitsu wrote: View Post
    Boeheim has the top team in NCAA -- recruiting will not be a problem. Also, what he said about this years freshmen turned out to be pretty accurate. The only thing I don't like is him exposing Ennis' weakness to the press. Wiggins' coach did the same thing. What's up with that?
    It's not like the good scouts/talent evaluators dont already know the flaws in players games. I will agree though that some coaches like to flap their gums a bit much. And do GMs really care what a Boeheim has to say especially if it wasnt in confidence to one of them? Personally, too many players come out too early rather than learn the game and some skills in college.

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    Quote Bendit wrote: View Post
    It's not like the good scouts/talent evaluators dont already know the flaws in players games. I will agree though that some coaches like to flap their gums a bit much. And do GMs really care what a Boeheim has to say especially if it wasnt in confidence to one of them? Personally, too many players come out too early rather than learn the game and some skills in college.
    I agree with this.

    But I think in Ennis' case, it's not a real issue. He's far more advanced than his age from the perspective of skills you want in a PG. He does need to get stronger....but training is likely to be far better with NBA level facilities and trainers. He does need to work on his scoring a bit, but the spacing and type of game is different enough that I think for a smart player like him, the sooner you get him exposed to the NBA, the better it will be for his development as a scorer. He doesn't need another year of cram-the-paint zone defenses and poorly spaced basketball to help with his scoring/shooting (his stroke is actually pretty good too).

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