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Thread: Fixing the Raptors

  1. #1
    Raptors Republic Rookie Liston's Avatar
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    Default Fixing the Raptors

    Source: http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=501

    When the core (Bargnani, Bosh and Hedo) is in, the Raptors play much better with Calderon at the point (9 points better than average) than with Jack (4 points worse than average).
    When Chris Bosh is out and Amir Johnson is out the Raptors get killed (16 points worse than average). But when Amir replaces Bosh the Raptors are only 1 point worse than average. Breaking it down further we find that with Johnson, Bargnani and Jack in and the other two players chosen from Wright, DeRozan, Calderon , Bellinelli and Weems the Raptors are 19 points better than average in 143 minutes!
    Bargnani, Bosh and Belinelli in is great (218 minutes, Raptors play 15 points better than average). With Wright also in the Raptors are awesome (60 min, 33 points better than average per 48 minutes!).
    It addressed my point: when you have a weak rebounder and defender in Bargnani, you need a strong rebounder and defender in Johnson - and Johnson's weaknesses on offense are offset by Bargnani strong offensive game.

    Adjusted +/- is not the "be all end all", but there are a few key combinations that make sense. Especially given how weak our defense is with certain combinations.

    A "new" system, dubbed "Regularized Adjusted +/-" shows some telling stats:
    On D, Andrea Bargnani is ranked 529 out of 537 players. Yes, you read that correctly.
    Bargs' lovers - I'm just relaying information.
    Amir Johnson is ranked 11 out of 537. Yes, you read that correctly.
    Amir haters - I'm just relaying information.

    Argue with the author of the data, not me.

  2. #2
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    Default some optimism in raptorland....

    Something i found while perusing the interwebs...


    http://oftwominds.yardbarker.com/blog/oftwominds

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Liston wrote: View Post
    Source: http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=501



    It addressed my point: when you have a weak rebounder and defender in Bargnani, you need a strong rebounder and defender in Johnson - and Johnson's weaknesses on offense are offset by Bargnani strong offensive game.

    Adjusted +/- is not the "be all end all", but there are a few key combinations that make sense. Especially given how weak our defense is with certain combinations.

    A "new" system, dubbed "Regularized Adjusted +/-" shows some telling stats:
    On D, Andrea Bargnani is ranked 529 out of 537 players. Yes, you read that correctly.
    Bargs' lovers - I'm just relaying information.
    Amir Johnson is ranked 11 out of 537. Yes, you read that correctly.
    Amir haters - I'm just relaying information.

    Argue with the author of the data, not me.
    Johnson's so called weakness on offense is vastly overstated.

    The Raptors only score about 2 fewer points per 100 possessions when Johnson is on the court vs when he is off.

    http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR9.HTM

    As far as effective five man units go it appears that none of the five man units with Bosh on them that have played significant minutes are really effective

    Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh unit has 32% win percentage.
    Calderon-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh unit has 48% win percentage.
    Calderon-Jack-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh unit has a 38% win percentage.

    http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR13.HTM

    The Raptors best 5 man win% unit appears to be

    Jack-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bargnani which has a 71% win percentage albeit in limited minutes.

    http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR9.HTM

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    Raptors Republic Rookie SimpleJack's Avatar
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    I saw a clip when Mitchell was coaching back in the day and talking to the boys in the dressing room and Triano was sitting on the floor playing with his laces like a little kid...I wanted to give this guy a chance but I'm getting to the point where I can't take it anymore...As a coaching group, they are accepting mediocrity and the power of the highly paid professional basketball player has once again risen to the top...Turk, you're terrible, I've got Barney in my pool but terribly inconsistent, Bosh, it was nice knowin' ya, can Calderon spell lateral quickness?, JJ, tough competitor but again, inconsistent...What happened, I know we had an easy sked for a bit but how can we tank this late in the season..I feel like I need a shrink

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    Trashing Triano is too easy. This team is bad because the players are unproductive. All of the talk about schemes and strategies isn't going to change that. Bring in some top 50 players or forget paying a big-name coach $7 million a year.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie Liston's Avatar
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    Johnson's so called weakness on offense is vastly overstated.

    The Raptors only score about 2 fewer points per 100 possessions when Johnson is on the court vs when he is off.
    You're right - but I didn't want to appear overly biased. The weakness in his ability to shoot is offset by his ability to get second chance points.

  7. #7
    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Liston wrote: View Post
    You're right - but I didn't want to appear overly biased. The weakness in his ability to shoot is offset by his ability to get second chance points.
    Right now his ability to shoot successfully is limited to about 5 feet. He has shown that he can make hook shots with both hands pretty regularly up to five feet away.

    He needs to develop a post up jump shot with a range of up to 10 feet and add more low post moves.

    His offense is far better than it was at the beginning of the year. There is no reason to think that with more coaching from English that Johnson can't become a solid low post scoring threat in the next couple of years assuming he stays with the Raptors.

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    Amir Johnson doesn't need to develop his offensive game to play more minutes.

    Amir's offensive game is already good enough to play 30-35 minutes a night.

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