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Thread: Draft Production Expectations based on Draft Slot - Historical Review

  1. #21
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    Can you tell us who the most productive non-lottery 1st rounders were from a few recent drafts?
    Not based on any stats, but Tim Hardaway Jr., Tyler Zeller, Kawhi Leonard, Kenneth Faried, Reggie Jackson, Chandler Parsons, Isiah Thomas, Eric Bledsoe, and Lance Stephenson come to mind.

    EDIT: Nevermind, some of these guys are 2nd rounders....
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  3. #22
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    or just like, top 15 players drafted later than pick 15 ranked by ppg?

    basically I want an idea on what the best player from the second half of the first round often looks like - so if the raptors make the perfect pick, what is the ceiling that can reasonably be anticipated

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Axel's Avatar
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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    PPG for starters?
    Working from #30 slot, the top scorers from drafts since 2003 are:
    David Lee
    Josh Howard
    #28 the last good one is Tony Parker in 2001
    Jordan Crawford/Aaron Afflalo
    Kevin Martin/Aaron Brooks
    Nik Batum
    Lowry/Ibaka
    Wilson Chandler
    Jarrett Jack/Faried
    Ryan Anderson
    Jameer Nelson - pick 20
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  5. #24
    Raptors Republic All-Star Axel's Avatar
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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    or just like, top 15 players drafted later than pick 15 ranked by ppg?

    basically I want an idea on what the best player from the second half of the first round often looks like - so if the raptors make the perfect pick, what is the ceiling that can reasonably be anticipated
    That is a simple search on BBREF.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...r_by=pts_per_g

    Kevin Martin, Danny Granger, Al Jefferson, David West and Josh Smith are the top 5 for players drafted from 2003 in slots 15-30
    Whatever you do, do it the best you can

  6. #25
    Raptors Republic All-Star Axel's Avatar
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    Interesting trend I'm looking to follow as well

    10th pick - average career of 557 games : 6.8 seasons

    13th pick - average career of 534 games : 6.5 seasons

    17th pick - average career of 385 games : 4.6 seasons

    20th pick - average career of 364 games : 4.4 seasons

    Haven't fully compiled all the averages for all the categories yet, but length of career, SPG, BPG, 3P%, WS and WS48 are the additional categories I've added to the sheet.
    Whatever you do, do it the best you can

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  8. #26
    Raptors Republic Rookie Just Is's Avatar
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Here is the complete Top 10:

    Draft Slot PPG RPG APG FG%
    1 16.99 8.04 6.75 0.489
    2 12.68 6.23 6.82 0.468
    3 14.25 6.12 4.24 0.460
    4 12.99 5.69 5.22 0.453
    5 11.93 5.55 5.28 0.454
    6 9.93 4.25 4.03 0.458
    7 11.69 5.23 5.11 0.450
    8 10.19 4.43 4.16 0.448
    9 11.02 5.38 4.87 0.472
    10 10.45 4.83 3.82 0.453


    I finally figured out to use a table!!
    Interesting that, within the top 10, the worst performing draft positions are 2 and 6. I always had a suspicion about 2 though.

  9. #27
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Great stuff, and congrats on the table making, I've given up.

    I agree with the poster above (should have done some multi-qouting but I'm lazy), that on actual draft day the variance is high enough that it isn't really useful. However, does provide a benchmark for performance and helps to determine the value of draft picks.

    A couple of things that would be interesting to me.

    1) I often prefer medians to averages, so it would be interesting what is the median production at each draft spot.

    2) Are teams getting better at drafting? You could do this by looking at variance to the mean. If the variance decreases over time, that would suggest to me that teams in general are getting better over time at valuing draft picks. A got halfway point would be comparing the variance of the high school drafts verus after the age limit was upped. Theoretically there should be MORE variance before the age limit was upped. Does the data reflect this?


    Anyway, those are my two thoughts. Not that anyone has to answer those questions (I know how long these things can take).
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  10. #28
    Raptors Republic All-Star Axel's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Great stuff, and congrats on the table making, I've given up.

    I agree with the poster above (should have done some multi-qouting but I'm lazy), that on actual draft day the variance is high enough that it isn't really useful. However, does provide a benchmark for performance and helps to determine the value of draft picks.

    A couple of things that would be interesting to me.

    1) I often prefer medians to averages, so it would be interesting what is the median production at each draft spot.

    2) Are teams getting better at drafting? You could do this by looking at variance to the mean. If the variance decreases over time, that would suggest to me that teams in general are getting better over time at valuing draft picks. A got halfway point would be comparing the variance of the high school drafts verus after the age limit was upped. Theoretically there should be MORE variance before the age limit was upped. Does the data reflect this?


    Anyway, those are my two thoughts. Not that anyone has to answer those questions (I know how long these things can take).
    Good points. I just finished the full spreadsheet, so running additional stats functions shouldn't be too hard.

    I tried to plot draft variances, but I have no way of posting them on here. Unless I can figure out a way to take an Excel generated chart, post it online somewhere and then share as an image, then I can only use text (which isn't nearly as exciting).

    Since I have the data since 1980, studies involving the age limit changes is certainly possible. I can add it to the list of things worth looking into.

    It's been a while since I've done a lot of statistical measures like this, so any ideas and suggestions are welcome. I can even share the sheet if someone PM's me.
    Whatever you do, do it the best you can

  11. #29
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    Draft Ppg rpg apg fg%
    1 16.99 8.04 6.75 0.489
    2 12.68 6.23 6.82 0.468
    3 14.25 6.12 4.24 0.460
    4 12.99 5.69 5.22 0.453
    5 11.93 5.55 5.28 0.454
    6 9.93 4.25 4.03 0.458
    7 11.69 5.23 5.11 0.450
    8 10.19 4.43 4.16 0.448
    9 11.02 5.38 4.87 0.472
    10 10.45 4.83 3.82 0.453
    11 9.22 4.24 4.01 0.461
    12 7.60 3.69 4.91 0.448
    13 9.35 4.46 3.99 0.456 < - points here include Kobe
    14 8.72 3.91 3.87 0.441
    15 7.21 3.37 3.98 0.450
    16 7.19 3.37 3.79 0.428
    17 7.49 3.65 4.23 0.441
    18 7.93 3.43 4.49 0.448
    19 7.38 3.35 3.71 0.436
    20 7.20 3.24 3.40 0.446
    21 6.90 3.51 3.77 0.409
    22 6.14 3.17 2.70 0.441
    23 6.38 3.41 3.40 0.435
    24 7.89 3.83 3.50 0.438
    25 6.14 3.19 2.93 0.433
    26 5.76 2.90 2.80 0.438
    27 5.55 3.36 2.84 0.444
    28 5.83 2.73 3.53 0.429
    29 5.62 2.91 2.22 0.447
    30 5.28 2.96 3.50 0.421
    Whatever you do, do it the best you can

  12. #30
    Raptors Republic Rookie rseal's Avatar
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    It goes without saying, but I'm going to say it anyway: excellent post.

  13. #31
    Raptors Republic All-Star Axel's Avatar
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    A really good read from SI's Point Forward on 2nd round picks. Very related to the existing train of thought from this thread.

    http://nba.si.com/2014/02/26/all-gol...-paul-millsap/
    Whatever you do, do it the best you can

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