mike, prague wrote:
View Post
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Draft Production Expectations based on Draft Slot - Historical Review
Collapse
X
-
Here is the complete Top 10:
Draft Slot PPG RPG APG FG% 1 16.99 8.04 6.75 0.489 2 12.68 6.23 6.82 0.468 3 14.25 6.12 4.24 0.460 4 12.99 5.69 5.22 0.453 5 11.93 5.55 5.28 0.454 6 9.93 4.25 4.03 0.458 7 11.69 5.23 5.11 0.450 8 10.19 4.43 4.16 0.448 9 11.02 5.38 4.87 0.472 10 10.45 4.83 3.82 0.453
I finally figured out to use a table!!Last edited by Axel; Wed Feb 19, 2014, 11:35 AM.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
Comment
-
Can you tell us who the most productive non-lottery 1st rounders were from a few recent drafts?"Bruno?
Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
He's terrible."
-Superjudge, 7/23
Hope you're wrong.
Comment
-
stooley wrote: View PostCan you tell us who the most productive non-lottery 1st rounders were from a few recent drafts?Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
Comment
-
-
stooley wrote: View PostCan you tell us who the most productive non-lottery 1st rounders were from a few recent drafts?
EDIT: Nevermind, some of these guys are 2nd rounders....
Comment
-
or just like, top 15 players drafted later than pick 15 ranked by ppg?
basically I want an idea on what the best player from the second half of the first round often looks like - so if the raptors make the perfect pick, what is the ceiling that can reasonably be anticipated"Bruno?
Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
He's terrible."
-Superjudge, 7/23
Hope you're wrong.
Comment
-
stooley wrote: View PostPPG for starters?
David Lee
Josh Howard
#28 the last good one is Tony Parker in 2001
Jordan Crawford/Aaron Afflalo
Kevin Martin/Aaron Brooks
Nik Batum
Lowry/Ibaka
Wilson Chandler
Jarrett Jack/Faried
Ryan Anderson
Jameer Nelson - pick 20Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
Comment
-
stooley wrote: View Postor just like, top 15 players drafted later than pick 15 ranked by ppg?
basically I want an idea on what the best player from the second half of the first round often looks like - so if the raptors make the perfect pick, what is the ceiling that can reasonably be anticipated
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...r_by=pts_per_g
Kevin Martin, Danny Granger, Al Jefferson, David West and Josh Smith are the top 5 for players drafted from 2003 in slots 15-30Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
Comment
-
Interesting trend I'm looking to follow as well
10th pick - average career of 557 games : 6.8 seasons
13th pick - average career of 534 games : 6.5 seasons
17th pick - average career of 385 games : 4.6 seasons
20th pick - average career of 364 games : 4.4 seasons
Haven't fully compiled all the averages for all the categories yet, but length of career, SPG, BPG, 3P%, WS and WS48 are the additional categories I've added to the sheet.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
Comment
-
Axel wrote: View PostHere is the complete Top 10:
Draft Slot PPG RPG APG FG% 1 16.99 8.04 6.75 0.489 2 12.68 6.23 6.82 0.468 3 14.25 6.12 4.24 0.460 4 12.99 5.69 5.22 0.453 5 11.93 5.55 5.28 0.454 6 9.93 4.25 4.03 0.458 7 11.69 5.23 5.11 0.450 8 10.19 4.43 4.16 0.448 9 11.02 5.38 4.87 0.472 10 10.45 4.83 3.82 0.453
I finally figured out to use a table!!"My biggest concern as a coach is to not confuse winning with progress." - Steve Kerr
"If it's unacceptable in defeat, it's unacceptable in victory." - Jeff Van Gundy
Comment
-
Great stuff, and congrats on the table making, I've given up.
I agree with the poster above (should have done some multi-qouting but I'm lazy), that on actual draft day the variance is high enough that it isn't really useful. However, does provide a benchmark for performance and helps to determine the value of draft picks.
A couple of things that would be interesting to me.
1) I often prefer medians to averages, so it would be interesting what is the median production at each draft spot.
2) Are teams getting better at drafting? You could do this by looking at variance to the mean. If the variance decreases over time, that would suggest to me that teams in general are getting better over time at valuing draft picks. A got halfway point would be comparing the variance of the high school drafts verus after the age limit was upped. Theoretically there should be MORE variance before the age limit was upped. Does the data reflect this?
Anyway, those are my two thoughts. Not that anyone has to answer those questions (I know how long these things can take)."They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014
"I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015
"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon
Comment
-
ezz_bee wrote: View PostGreat stuff, and congrats on the table making, I've given up.
I agree with the poster above (should have done some multi-qouting but I'm lazy), that on actual draft day the variance is high enough that it isn't really useful. However, does provide a benchmark for performance and helps to determine the value of draft picks.
A couple of things that would be interesting to me.
1) I often prefer medians to averages, so it would be interesting what is the median production at each draft spot.
2) Are teams getting better at drafting? You could do this by looking at variance to the mean. If the variance decreases over time, that would suggest to me that teams in general are getting better over time at valuing draft picks. A got halfway point would be comparing the variance of the high school drafts verus after the age limit was upped. Theoretically there should be MORE variance before the age limit was upped. Does the data reflect this?
Anyway, those are my two thoughts. Not that anyone has to answer those questions (I know how long these things can take).
I tried to plot draft variances, but I have no way of posting them on here. Unless I can figure out a way to take an Excel generated chart, post it online somewhere and then share as an image, then I can only use text (which isn't nearly as exciting).
Since I have the data since 1980, studies involving the age limit changes is certainly possible. I can add it to the list of things worth looking into.
It's been a while since I've done a lot of statistical measures like this, so any ideas and suggestions are welcome. I can even share the sheet if someone PM's me.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
Comment
-
Draft Ppg rpg apg fg%
1 16.99 8.04 6.75 0.489
2 12.68 6.23 6.82 0.468
3 14.25 6.12 4.24 0.460
4 12.99 5.69 5.22 0.453
5 11.93 5.55 5.28 0.454
6 9.93 4.25 4.03 0.458
7 11.69 5.23 5.11 0.450
8 10.19 4.43 4.16 0.448
9 11.02 5.38 4.87 0.472
10 10.45 4.83 3.82 0.453
11 9.22 4.24 4.01 0.461
12 7.60 3.69 4.91 0.448
13 9.35 4.46 3.99 0.456 < - points here include Kobe
14 8.72 3.91 3.87 0.441
15 7.21 3.37 3.98 0.450
16 7.19 3.37 3.79 0.428
17 7.49 3.65 4.23 0.441
18 7.93 3.43 4.49 0.448
19 7.38 3.35 3.71 0.436
20 7.20 3.24 3.40 0.446
21 6.90 3.51 3.77 0.409
22 6.14 3.17 2.70 0.441
23 6.38 3.41 3.40 0.435
24 7.89 3.83 3.50 0.438
25 6.14 3.19 2.93 0.433
26 5.76 2.90 2.80 0.438
27 5.55 3.36 2.84 0.444
28 5.83 2.73 3.53 0.429
29 5.62 2.91 2.22 0.447
30 5.28 2.96 3.50 0.421Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
Comment
Comment