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Draft Production Expectations based on Draft Slot - Historical Review

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  • #16
    mike, prague wrote: View Post
    Great job Axel. Lengthy read, but definitely worth it. Cool that 9th picks are 2nd in FG%! Must be Demar keeping up the standard ...
    Ah...might want to read more closely. Demar is actually below average FG% for #9 picks but 4th best in scoring.
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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    • #17
      Here is the complete Top 10:

      Draft Slot PPG RPG APG FG%
      1 16.99 8.04 6.75 0.489
      2 12.68 6.23 6.82 0.468
      3 14.25 6.12 4.24 0.460
      4 12.99 5.69 5.22 0.453
      5 11.93 5.55 5.28 0.454
      6 9.93 4.25 4.03 0.458
      7 11.69 5.23 5.11 0.450
      8 10.19 4.43 4.16 0.448
      9 11.02 5.38 4.87 0.472
      10 10.45 4.83 3.82 0.453

      I finally figured out to use a table!!
      Last edited by Axel; Wed Feb 19, 2014, 11:35 AM.
      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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      • #18
        Can you tell us who the most productive non-lottery 1st rounders were from a few recent drafts?
        "Bruno?
        Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
        He's terrible."

        -Superjudge, 7/23

        Hope you're wrong.

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        • #19
          stooley wrote: View Post
          Can you tell us who the most productive non-lottery 1st rounders were from a few recent drafts?
          haha, depends on how you define productive...PPG? RPG? FG%? 3P%? WS? WS48?
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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          • #20
            Axel wrote: View Post
            haha, depends on how you define productive...PPG? RPG? FG%? 3P%? WS? WS48?
            PPG for starters?
            "Bruno?
            Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
            He's terrible."

            -Superjudge, 7/23

            Hope you're wrong.

            Comment


            • #21
              stooley wrote: View Post
              Can you tell us who the most productive non-lottery 1st rounders were from a few recent drafts?
              Not based on any stats, but Tim Hardaway Jr., Tyler Zeller, Kawhi Leonard, Kenneth Faried, Reggie Jackson, Chandler Parsons, Isiah Thomas, Eric Bledsoe, and Lance Stephenson come to mind.

              EDIT: Nevermind, some of these guys are 2nd rounders....

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              • #22
                or just like, top 15 players drafted later than pick 15 ranked by ppg?

                basically I want an idea on what the best player from the second half of the first round often looks like - so if the raptors make the perfect pick, what is the ceiling that can reasonably be anticipated
                "Bruno?
                Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                He's terrible."

                -Superjudge, 7/23

                Hope you're wrong.

                Comment


                • #23
                  stooley wrote: View Post
                  PPG for starters?
                  Working from #30 slot, the top scorers from drafts since 2003 are:
                  David Lee
                  Josh Howard
                  #28 the last good one is Tony Parker in 2001
                  Jordan Crawford/Aaron Afflalo
                  Kevin Martin/Aaron Brooks
                  Nik Batum
                  Lowry/Ibaka
                  Wilson Chandler
                  Jarrett Jack/Faried
                  Ryan Anderson
                  Jameer Nelson - pick 20
                  Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                  If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                  • #24
                    stooley wrote: View Post
                    or just like, top 15 players drafted later than pick 15 ranked by ppg?

                    basically I want an idea on what the best player from the second half of the first round often looks like - so if the raptors make the perfect pick, what is the ceiling that can reasonably be anticipated
                    That is a simple search on BBREF.

                    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...r_by=pts_per_g

                    Kevin Martin, Danny Granger, Al Jefferson, David West and Josh Smith are the top 5 for players drafted from 2003 in slots 15-30
                    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                    • #25
                      Interesting trend I'm looking to follow as well

                      10th pick - average career of 557 games : 6.8 seasons

                      13th pick - average career of 534 games : 6.5 seasons

                      17th pick - average career of 385 games : 4.6 seasons

                      20th pick - average career of 364 games : 4.4 seasons

                      Haven't fully compiled all the averages for all the categories yet, but length of career, SPG, BPG, 3P%, WS and WS48 are the additional categories I've added to the sheet.
                      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Axel wrote: View Post
                        Here is the complete Top 10:

                        Draft Slot PPG RPG APG FG%
                        1 16.99 8.04 6.75 0.489
                        2 12.68 6.23 6.82 0.468
                        3 14.25 6.12 4.24 0.460
                        4 12.99 5.69 5.22 0.453
                        5 11.93 5.55 5.28 0.454
                        6 9.93 4.25 4.03 0.458
                        7 11.69 5.23 5.11 0.450
                        8 10.19 4.43 4.16 0.448
                        9 11.02 5.38 4.87 0.472
                        10 10.45 4.83 3.82 0.453

                        I finally figured out to use a table!!
                        Interesting that, within the top 10, the worst performing draft positions are 2 and 6. I always had a suspicion about 2 though.
                        "My biggest concern as a coach is to not confuse winning with progress." - Steve Kerr
                        "If it's unacceptable in defeat, it's unacceptable in victory." - Jeff Van Gundy

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                        • #27
                          Great stuff, and congrats on the table making, I've given up.

                          I agree with the poster above (should have done some multi-qouting but I'm lazy), that on actual draft day the variance is high enough that it isn't really useful. However, does provide a benchmark for performance and helps to determine the value of draft picks.

                          A couple of things that would be interesting to me.

                          1) I often prefer medians to averages, so it would be interesting what is the median production at each draft spot.

                          2) Are teams getting better at drafting? You could do this by looking at variance to the mean. If the variance decreases over time, that would suggest to me that teams in general are getting better over time at valuing draft picks. A got halfway point would be comparing the variance of the high school drafts verus after the age limit was upped. Theoretically there should be MORE variance before the age limit was upped. Does the data reflect this?


                          Anyway, those are my two thoughts. Not that anyone has to answer those questions (I know how long these things can take).
                          "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

                          "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

                          "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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                          • #28
                            ezz_bee wrote: View Post
                            Great stuff, and congrats on the table making, I've given up.

                            I agree with the poster above (should have done some multi-qouting but I'm lazy), that on actual draft day the variance is high enough that it isn't really useful. However, does provide a benchmark for performance and helps to determine the value of draft picks.

                            A couple of things that would be interesting to me.

                            1) I often prefer medians to averages, so it would be interesting what is the median production at each draft spot.

                            2) Are teams getting better at drafting? You could do this by looking at variance to the mean. If the variance decreases over time, that would suggest to me that teams in general are getting better over time at valuing draft picks. A got halfway point would be comparing the variance of the high school drafts verus after the age limit was upped. Theoretically there should be MORE variance before the age limit was upped. Does the data reflect this?


                            Anyway, those are my two thoughts. Not that anyone has to answer those questions (I know how long these things can take).
                            Good points. I just finished the full spreadsheet, so running additional stats functions shouldn't be too hard.

                            I tried to plot draft variances, but I have no way of posting them on here. Unless I can figure out a way to take an Excel generated chart, post it online somewhere and then share as an image, then I can only use text (which isn't nearly as exciting).

                            Since I have the data since 1980, studies involving the age limit changes is certainly possible. I can add it to the list of things worth looking into.

                            It's been a while since I've done a lot of statistical measures like this, so any ideas and suggestions are welcome. I can even share the sheet if someone PM's me.
                            Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                            If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Draft Ppg rpg apg fg%
                              1 16.99 8.04 6.75 0.489
                              2 12.68 6.23 6.82 0.468
                              3 14.25 6.12 4.24 0.460
                              4 12.99 5.69 5.22 0.453
                              5 11.93 5.55 5.28 0.454
                              6 9.93 4.25 4.03 0.458
                              7 11.69 5.23 5.11 0.450
                              8 10.19 4.43 4.16 0.448
                              9 11.02 5.38 4.87 0.472
                              10 10.45 4.83 3.82 0.453
                              11 9.22 4.24 4.01 0.461
                              12 7.60 3.69 4.91 0.448
                              13 9.35 4.46 3.99 0.456 < - points here include Kobe
                              14 8.72 3.91 3.87 0.441
                              15 7.21 3.37 3.98 0.450
                              16 7.19 3.37 3.79 0.428
                              17 7.49 3.65 4.23 0.441
                              18 7.93 3.43 4.49 0.448
                              19 7.38 3.35 3.71 0.436
                              20 7.20 3.24 3.40 0.446
                              21 6.90 3.51 3.77 0.409
                              22 6.14 3.17 2.70 0.441
                              23 6.38 3.41 3.40 0.435
                              24 7.89 3.83 3.50 0.438
                              25 6.14 3.19 2.93 0.433
                              26 5.76 2.90 2.80 0.438
                              27 5.55 3.36 2.84 0.444
                              28 5.83 2.73 3.53 0.429
                              29 5.62 2.91 2.22 0.447
                              30 5.28 2.96 3.50 0.421
                              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                              • #30
                                It goes without saying, but I'm going to say it anyway: excellent post.

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