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Thread: Should Casey pull the reins in on Derozan isolation's down the stretch?

  1. #61
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote Just Is wrote: View Post
    It absolutely wouldn't be hard to have come up with either. High screen, have Lowry drive, D absolutely would be worried about that given the match up (I couldn't remember if DJ or Hinrich was on Lowry on the last play), that would definitely free someone up for Lowry to kick to. Even better if you have an offball screen freeing Demar up as well.
    Yup. You run that off-ball screen with Hansbrough (a great screener), who can immediately go to the rim for a duck-in or offensive board. Better yet, run a double-screen with the other wing too (was it Salmons? Ross?) where maybe his defender also cheats to help cover the gap with DeMar...That wing can curl to the basket around Hansbrough or leak out to the baseline jumper shot area....You can create all sorts of chaos (or at least hope to) with pretty simple plays.

    *You'd give yourself
    -A basic p'n'r with Amir-Lowry where either one might get an opportunity at the rim, especially if off-ball action is making it hard for weakside help to come
    -Off-ball screens action that could free up DeMar for an open mid-range jumper
    -Screen action that could free up Tyler for a duck-in, or help give him inside position for the offensive rebound
    -Screen action giving your wing a baseline jumper, or possibly even a free cut to the basket if the D loses him.
    -They play perfect D and you still probably get a decent 12-15 footer from Lowry on one of his patented spin and fade shots.

    You get multiplie options...
    Last edited by white men can't jump; Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 02:17 PM.

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  3. #62
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    That's a scary thought: That after 4.5 seasons as a pro, DeRozan hasn't worked on his handles before
    Well he probably has but not the the extent that he needs to to drastically improve
    "You clearly don't know who you're talking to, so let me clue you in: I am not in danger, Skyler. I am the danger. A guy opens his door and gets shot, and you think that of me? No! I am the one who knocks!"

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Quote salmon wrote: View Post
    Good lord! Never letting up on the guy. He spills his guts out for this team every game. Without his play for 47 minutes, the game isn't even close, but jump all over him for not making the play he was clearly fouled on, but not called.



    Implying the shot should have gone to 4/13, in the game, Lowry? Coaches don't usually go with the cold hand. But I played around with that page. Last minute, tied or behind:

    DeMar DeRozan... 3/15 = 20%

    Paul George........ 2/12 = 16.7%

    Carmelo Anthony. 1/19 = 5.3%

    Chris Paul........... 1/9 = 11.1%

    KD.................... 4/12 = 33.3%

    James Harden...... 3/9 = 33.3%

    John Wall........... 6/18 = 33.3%


    Seeing any big numbers from these "superstars? Paul George, Melo, CP3 shouldn't have the ball at that point? KD, Harden are iffy?
    I hate isos at the end of games, by anyone. The numbers just don't back the play up.

    Look at this:

    http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamClutc...&sortOrder=DES

    Last minute of the game, game within three points. Both the Spurs and the Heat, teams that run actual plays in clutch time, not just isos, are right around 50% from the field (which is insane!). The next closest contender is GS, at 40%. The majority of contending teams are 35% or worse. OKC, a team known for having the supposed best closer in the game, and a team that runs isos essentially exclusively in crunch, is at 25%.

  5. #64
    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Besides, this is less about DeRozan, and more about Casey being an idiot.
    Yes, exactly.

    I cannot find the article but I did read something about two years which tried to map out the success rate of isolation plays at the end of games and it was about 25% vs. 40-60% for plays involving combinations of passes and screens. This seems obvious.

    I think a lot of this though comes down to a combination of ego and control. A coach wants to ensure his best player takes the last shot (remember the outrage earlier in the year when Amir ended up with the open three?) and if you run a bunch of screens and make a pile of passes, then the chances are the guy shooting won't be your first choice. Coaches dont' want to answer those questions so they just put it on their player.

    There is also an ego thing of "my guy can beat your guy". The combination of these factors is strong.....

  6. #65
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    I hate isos at the end of games, by anyone. The numbers just don't back the play up.

    Look at this:

    http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamClutc...&sortOrder=DES

    Last minute of the game, game within three points. Both the Spurs and the Heat, teams that run actual plays in clutch time, not just isos, are right around 50% from the field (which is insane!). The next closest contender is GS, at 40%. The majority of contending teams are 35% or worse. OKC, a team known for having the supposed best closer in the game, and a team that runs isos essentially exclusively in crunch, is at 25%.
    Wow

    Interesting post
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    Raptors Republic Starter KeonClark's Avatar
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    Absolutely mind boggling, and I predicted it. Looked over at my girlfriend and said, "they'll give the ball to derozan and he'll fuck it up." Ludicrous stuff, you run plays all season to get "the best shot available", then at the end you go "ok, everyone stand around while demar goes 1 on 5". Casey goes mental at the end of every game, it started with bargnani, then gay, now demar is "our guy". It lacks any and all logic that we choose zero play, zero screen, zero movement for the final play down 1. Lol zero. Out of all the ups and downs in the year, this is the hardest thing to swallow yet.

  8. #67
    Raptors Republic Starter Raptor Jesus's Avatar
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    Bosh; gone.
    Bargnani; gone.
    Triano; gone.

    I have returned.

    No doubt that ISO was pathetic. Play call. Execution. Everything about it was amateur. DD's inability to bail out a team, in the final seconds when put in the least likely position to succeed, is well documented. But it brings to mind one of Casey's other puzzling quirks. His seeming inability to call a functional timeout. This ISO call smacks of his not-so run stopping timeouts. Up until Decembers' resurgence his timeouts followed no particular cause effect relationship with the on court action.

    When I finally saw that he could infact call a timeout to quell a spurt or a run, it forced me to consider that he was actively calling worthless timeouts. It's just too far fetched to fathom that his entire coaching career he was incapable and that the jettison of Rudy suddenly spurred that development in his coaching ability.

    Casey now strikes me as a willy old man that is taking his mandate 'to show improvement' to heart. And much to our chagrin is willing to burn close games (after huge comebacks to meaningful opponents ~ Bulls, Blazers) to teach his 'go to guy' the types of defence, and opposition he'll face(should he be able to take that next step) in the future.

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  10. #68
    Raptors Republic Starter jimmie's Avatar
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    Quote Raptor Jesus wrote: View Post
    Casey now strikes me as a willy old man that is taking his mandate 'to show improvement' to heart. And much to our chagrin is willing to burn close games (after huge comebacks to meaningful opponents ~ Bulls, Blazers) to teach his 'go to guy' the types of defence, and opposition he'll face(should he be able to take that next step) in the future.
    100%.

    Putting the ball in DD's hands = 'developing the team", not simply a poor coaching decision. I bet even Casey would concede that Lowry probably should have had the ball down the stretch there -- if the W was the main goal -- but I'm not sure Ws are the main goal, either for Casey or for Ujiri.

    Face it -- right now, there are absolutely no guarantees that Lowry is a Raptor next year. The odds are probably against it, though I personally have come around and hope he stays. But status quo is that DD is Toronto's alpha dog -- for the rest of this year and until/unless someone else comes in to usurp him. That might be Lowry, if he stays. But, given the context of the 2014 Raptors, which is and always has been "patience" and "team development" and "see what we've got" (vs. "let's go balls-out to win this year"; the unexpected success is a side benefit, but I don't think it has markedly changed Ujiri's approach), giving DD the ball in the crunch -- like other teams also do with their alpha dogs -- is the natural coaching decision, both to let him develop and to see what they've really got in him.

    I could be wrong, but I agree 100% with the quote above. I (still) think fans are putting way too much blame on Casey for these kind of 'strategic' decisions. I wouldn't blame either Demar or Casey for the loss; they both did what they needed to do, and came up short. It happens.
    Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

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  12. #69
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    shhhhhhhhhhh, we only want development for JV and Ross, and are very fine with losses if they get time fucking up over and over. DeMar is what he was and will never get better, so Casey is an idiot for putting the all star in a position to learn.

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    *crickets*

    Talk about over-reacting to one play. Just relax guys. We played hard and came up short at the end. It happens.

  14. #71
    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Quote Raptor Jesus wrote: View Post
    Casey now strikes me as a willy old man that is taking his mandate 'to show improvement' to heart. And much to our chagrin is willing to burn close games (after huge comebacks to meaningful opponents ~ Bulls, Blazers) to teach his 'go to guy' the types of defence, and opposition he'll face(should he be able to take that next step) in the future.
    Quote jimmie wrote: View Post
    Putting the ball in DD's hands = 'developing the team", not simply a poor coaching decision. I bet even Casey would concede that Lowry probably should have had the ball down the stretch there -- if the W was the main goal -- but I'm not sure Ws are the main goal, either for Casey or for Ujiri.
    So where does the Handsbrough play call on the second-last possession fit in with this thinking?
    Last edited by JimiCliff; Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 08:14 PM.

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  16. #72
    Raptors Republic Superstar isaacthompson's Avatar
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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    So where does the Handsbrough play call on the second-last position fit in with this thinking?
    The only possible thing I can think of concerning that play is trying to draw a foul. Hansbrough's first on the team in free throws per field goal attempt.
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  17. #73
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote isaacthompson wrote: View Post
    The only possible thing I can think of concerning that play is trying to draw a foul. Hansbrough's first on the team in free throws per field goal attempt.
    You don't draw up a play with the goal being to get a whistle. It was just an iso for Hansbrough. That's it. You can factor in "maybe Tyler draws a foul", but your goal has to be "how can we get a bucket?"

  18. #74
    Raptors Republic Superstar isaacthompson's Avatar
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    You don't draw up a play with the goal being to get a whistle. It was just an iso for Hansbrough. That's it. You can factor in "maybe Tyler draws a foul", but your goal has to be "how can we get a bucket?"
    I know, just thinking of possible rationales... after all, it's Casey we're talking about here.
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  19. #75
    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    My guess is that it was a "They'll never suspect this!" type play call.

  20. #76
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    My guess is that it was a "They'll never suspect this!" type play call.
    Yeah...nor should they....

  21. #77
    Raptors Republic Starter Raptor Jesus's Avatar
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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    So where does the Handsbrough play call on the second-last possession fit in with this thinking?
    I don't know that it has to. It's a take on what I see on the court, hear in interviews and read in print.

    The fact Hansbro had the ball late strikes as a reaction to the defence, the development of the play or it could even be as simple as 'they are loading up on X look inside see if we can catch them napping'.

    To OP's original question, its important to know what you have in a player and what you don't. I doubt the intention was to test ISOs reliability as a close out strategy.

  22. #78
    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Quote Raptor Jesus wrote: View Post
    I don't know that it has to. It's a take on what I see on the court, hear in interviews and read in print.

    The fact Hansbro had the ball late strikes as a reaction to the defence, the development of the play or it could even be as simple as 'they are loading up on X look inside see if we can catch them napping'.

    To OP's original question, its important to know what you have in a player and what you don't. I doubt the intention was to test ISOs reliability as a close out strategy.
    Right, but you were claiming that they're putting future development before winning now. If that's the case, there's no way they give Handsbro that play - in fact, there's no way he'd even be in the game; it'd be Val in there.

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  24. #79
    Raptors Republic Starter Raptor Jesus's Avatar
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    I am of the opinion that Val can get a read on how the defence reacted from the bench and game tape. They can also apply the teaching points from this loss in a future game this season. With the added benefit that should Val be on the court in that context the bulls don't necessarily have a read on him.

    The teaching opportunity here arises through the loss. Nobody is suggesting they employ plays with the intent to fail. The fact it failed allows for growth.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star BigCamB's Avatar
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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    Right, but you were claiming that they're putting future development before winning now. If that's the case, there's no way they give Handsbro that play - in fact, there's no way he'd even be in the game; it'd be Val in there.
    Yeah I find this ridiculous. Casey is the ultimate win now guy from my point of view. Any mistake from JV or Ross and he flips out at them and drags them from the game. If he was about development and letting players learn on the fly, he would let them play through some of the tough scenarios they face in game instead of dragging them at an instant. I genuinely believe he thinks that his end game ISO calls are the BEST option for the raptors to win the game.

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