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Thread: Jonas Valanciunas' development - offense or defense?

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    Default Jonas Valanciunas' development - offense or defense?

    With the unexpected success of the Raptors this year much of the conversation has turned to the development of our two sophomores as we attempt to predict how these guys will turn out and the contribution they may make to this club going forward.

    As far as JV is concerned, comparisons have been made to players like Hibbert and Chandler, as well as guys like Gortat. I do not expect JV to be a dominant defensive C like Hibbert or Chandler, but I do expect him to be more dominant than Gortat on both ends of the floor.

    Personally, I am more impressed by JV's offensive capability than his defense. I think he is more likely to become dominant scoring the ball than preventing baskets. I would really like the Raps to feed JV more often, and more consistently throughout games. We have seen what TRoss can do if given the touches and the opportunity, but I do not think that JV has been put into the position this season to excel offensively. Can he get you 20 or 30+ points if given the chance?

    So, what do you guys think? Will JV become a more dominant offensive or defensive big man, or will he develop a balanced game, and why do you think that?

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    hes gotten 2 more shots per 36 this year but his fg% has actually gone down quite significantly (5%). hes also been getting to the line less and is worse at shooting FTs. Hopefully it doesn't continue.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    hes gotten 2 more shots per 36 this year but his fg% has actually gone down quite significantly (5%). hes also been getting to the line less and is worse at shooting FTs. Hopefully it doesn't continue.
    Classic sophomore slumping.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    hes gotten 2 more shots per 36 this year but his fg% has actually gone down quite significantly (5%). hes also been getting to the line less and is worse at shooting FTs. Hopefully it doesn't continue.
    When you're looking for development, don't look at the boxscore. Look for flashes of certain skills or the man playing out of his comfort zone.

    The stats will come once the skills are where we want them to be.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star BigCamB's Avatar
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    As has been said in numerous threads, it can take years for big players to become very good defensive players, so I wont bother adding anymore to that as it's been said often enough . I don't know about you but I do see signs that he can be a good rim protector. He's already begun to master the Hibbert style "verticality" jump thingy and used it to good effect. He just needs to improve his stamina so he can make repeat efforts and get to more contests, as well as gain more experience.

    Offensively I have questions over his post play due to poor footwork and stuff. I'd be happy if he became a Marc Gasol type scorer. Have a good mid range jumper, score some off the pick and roll and the occasional post up.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    When you're looking for development, don't look at the boxscore. Look for flashes of certain skills or the man playing out of his comfort zone.

    The stats will come once the skills are where we want them to be.
    i dunno if hes developed anything new since last year. sort of a post game i suppose??

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    i dunno if hes developed anything new since last year. sort of a post game i suppose??
    haven't seen too many flashes yet. but you have to get worse before you get better. he's working on the post a lot, which was not at all his style before.

    he's also battling for rebounds and playing very aggressive which i like to see.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    haven't seen too many flashes yet. but you have to get worse before you get better. he's working on the post a lot, which was not at all his style before.

    he's also battling for rebounds and playing very aggressive which i like to see.
    i really dont like that his jumper has pretty much all but disappeared. pretty sure hes shooting below 30% from midrange this season which is just sad.

    his aggressiveness hasn't lead to more points or free throw attempts. but yes rebounds have slightly gone up.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    i really dont like that his jumper has pretty much all but disappeared. pretty sure hes shooting below 30% from midrange this season which is just sad.

    his aggressiveness hasn't lead to more points or free throw attempts. but yes rebounds have slightly gone up.
    As per Basketball Reference, Jonas is shooting:

    46.2% from 3-10 feet

    36.0% from 10-16 feet

    30.0% from 16-3pt line
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic Veteran MACK11's Avatar
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    My bold prediction for next year on JV is:

    He's gonna average 14.5ppg 10rpg 78% from the line, 52% from the field

    He's 2 years away from being 2 years away, but his wingspan is already here .

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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    i really like what JV's done this season, to be honest. yeah he's got stuff he needs to work on but i feel like for a sophmore he's right on track. i think pairing him in the front court with a really strong rim protector, rebounder would help his development.
    @jerboat

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    i really dont like that his jumper has pretty much all but disappeared. pretty sure hes shooting below 30% from midrange this season which is just sad.

    his aggressiveness hasn't lead to more points or free throw attempts. but yes rebounds have slightly gone up.
    That's my point though. Those types of things aren't reflected in the box-score right away. He has to learn them first.

    I'd bet the Raptors haven't had more than 30-40 practices since the season started, and I'd bet most of those are practicing schemes and sets, so JV has to literally use gametime as practice time.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TRex's Avatar
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    JV needs to work out with Hakeem this summer. Needs to work on FOOTWORK and LOW POST MOVES. And for a million time, the running hook NEEDS TO GO.
    Follow me on Twitter - @11_RRyan

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    Raptors Republic Superstar isaacthompson's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    i dunno if hes developed anything new since last year. sort of a post game i suppose??
    The pump fake has developed. It's a double fake this year as opposed to a single fake last year.
    Twitter - @thekid_it

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote isaacthompson wrote: View Post
    The pump fake has developed. It's a double fake this year as opposed to a single fake last year.
    can't wait till hes a veteran. 12 pumpfakes in a row before missing the jumper.

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    He went left when he faced up in the post against Vucevic last game - I remember sitting up thinking "hey, haven't seen him go left before". He then got stripped, but still, it was something new.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran MACK11's Avatar
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    JV is getting game planned for and should get double teamed by the Cavs today looooooooooool that means either JV is some undercover beast or the people over at Cleveland should not be running a team
    He's 2 years away from being 2 years away, but his wingspan is already here .

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    Classic sophomore slumping.
    It happened to Hibbert, too.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star OldSkoolCool's Avatar
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    He is lacking a rip through. Too mechanical on his face ups projecting going left or right

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    Raptors Republic Starter torch19's Avatar
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    JV missed a lot of games last year as a rookie (right around 30 missed games). It could be the fact that his body is not in tip top shape yet & his struggles in some games can be attributed to fatigue. The NBA season is a grind with all the travel involved & I'm sure fatigue is a factor (mental & physical). I'm happy to see that he's matched his total games played last season with a lot of games left to be played -- the Alex McKechnie factor.

    In terms of actual progression, these are his on-off splits (rookie year v sophomore year)

    From basketball-reference.com

    Rookie Year - Team Offense

    Split eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% Ortg
    On Court 0.492 24.7 73.3 49.3 57.9 7.2 8.6 17.1 104.0
    Off Court .486 25.9 73.6 49.0 60.0 8.4 7.4 13.7 107.6

    Rookie Year - Opponent

    Split eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% Ortg
    On Court .498 26.7 75.3 50.7 62.6 9.3 7.3 15.1 107.7
    Off Court .501 26.4 74.1 51.0 59.1 6.8 8.0 15.8 107.9

    Sophomore Year - Team Offense

    Split eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% Ortg
    On Court 0.503 27.7 74.4 51.2 57.8 7.0 7.4 16.4 109.1
    Off Court .473 27.6 75.5 50.6 56.8 8.5 6.4 14.0 108.7

    Sophomore Year - Opponent

    Split eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% Ortg
    On Court 0.502 25.6 72.3 48.8 60.8 8.6 7.4 15.9 108.5
    Off Court .470 24.5 72.4 49.4 56.4 7.1 7.9 18.0 102.7

    Observations

    In Jonas' rookie year, the Raptors offense is better with Jonas not playing at a rate of 3.6 points per 100 possessions while the team's defense (see: opponent table) is relatively the same -- although Jonas being on the court was better for the team at a rate of 0.2 points per 100 possessions.

    In Jonas' sophomore year, the Raptors offense is better with Jonas playing (opposite of his 1st year) at a rate of 0.4 points per 100 possessions while the team's defense is a lot better with Jonas not playing at a rate of 5.8 points per 100 possessions.

    Based on these statistics, Jonas' impact on offense has been greater than his impact on defense. Keep in mind though, we are still a net positive with Jonas playing (so it's not as if he's a liability). We just play tremendous defense with him off the court & that's a testament to how well our 2nd unit is playing. Check out Patterson's on-off splits & you will be impressed.

    We are also a better rebounding team with Jonas playing (see: TRB%) this year. His net impact in terms of TRB% is a +0.6%. It's still a plus but overall, our team is rebounding better this year than last year. If you look at ORB%, we are a much better offensive rebounding team this year compared to last & we are much better at grabbing offensive rebounds with Jonas playing than when he's not.

    Overall, I'm okay with Jonas' development. Clearly, he has a lot of work to do especially on the defensive side. But all in all, his impact when he's on the court is positive (marginally) this year as opposed to his rookie year when opponents scored at a rate of +3.7 points per 100 possessions when Jonas was on the court.

    These statistics only measure a player's impact on the team's performance but I believe there's value there because basketball is after all, a team game. What is shows is Jonas is developing his game within the framework of winning & that's pretty much what you want to see from a prospect.
    “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

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