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Thread: 3 point shooting in nba

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    Raptors Republic Veteran MACK11's Avatar
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    Default 3 point shooting in nba

    Look at this...

    2014 there were 21.25 threes taken per game
    2004 there were 14.92 threes taken per game
    1994 there were 9.8 threes taken per game
    1984 there were 2.37 threes taken per game


    It is pretty amazing if you compare decade averages


    Anyone have any idea why there is such a substantial increase in 3 point shooting in the NBA?
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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Because it gets you more points lol
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    Raptors Republic All-Star tucas's Avatar
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    If you're a good enough 3 point shooter it can be even more efficient than shooting in the paint. A 40% 3 point shooter is getting as many points as a 60% 2 point shooter

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    well common sense tells you that the 3 point shot was introduced to the nba in the 80s so obviously not that many would be attempted at the beginning. then people got better followed by analytics pushing it even more now.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    Spacing. And the analytics prefer it over long 2's. Defence has gotten tighter over the years and the three pointer is critical for allowing room to maneuver in the paint.
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Rumour is that the NBA is considering a 4 point shot in the future too. Further stretch the defence out, add strategic wrinkles, and better space players that are larger than previous eras while playing on the same sized court.

    Just like when the 3 was introduced, there wouldn't likely be a barrage of 4's attempted, but over the years, the game would evolve.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Rumour is that the NBA is considering a 4 point shot in the future too. Further stretch the defence out, add strategic wrinkles, and better space players that are larger than previous eras while playing on the same sized court.

    Just like when the 3 was introduced, there wouldn't likely be a barrage of 4's attempted, but over the years, the game would evolve.
    I really don't like that idea to be honest. While I think the 3 point line is necessary, I don't love how it distorts the value of certain positions on the court. Ideally, you would increase the value in further distances, without lowering the value of the mid range game.

    I think more rules takes away from the simple beauty of the game.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Rumour is that the NBA is considering a 4 point shot in the future too. Further stretch the defence out, add strategic wrinkles, and better space players that are larger than previous eras while playing on the same sized court.

    Just like when the 3 was introduced, there wouldn't likely be a barrage of 4's attempted, but over the years, the game would evolve.
    that 'rumour' was just some random shit posted by ESPN, which then got spread around. tim frank already said there have been no real discussions about it.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    that 'rumour' was just some random shit posted by ESPN, which then got spread around. tim frank already said there have been no real discussions about it.
    Not exactly.

    "NBA president of basketball operations Rod Thorn and vice president Kiki Vandeweghe acknowledged in a recent interview with ESPN.com that the league office, at least in an exploratory fashion, has weighed expanding the dimensions of the court and the introduction of a 4-point shot."

    NBA people talked about it "in an exploratory fashion", it just wasn't a serious discussion at this point.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    I really don't like that idea to be honest. While I think the 3 point line is necessary, I don't love how it distorts the value of certain positions on the court. Ideally, you would increase the value in further distances, without lowering the value of the mid range game.

    I think more rules takes away from the simple beauty of the game.
    I would rather they just expand the size of the court, but at this point, they should look at all options.

    I think the bold is kinda funny since basketball is either #1 or #2 in terms of the pure quantity of rules (football is right up there).

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    I would rather they just expand the size of the court, but at this point, they should look at all options.

    I think the bold is kinda funny since basketball is either #1 or #2 in terms of the pure quantity of rules (football is right up there).
    Yeah, I know. Basketball sits ahead of baseball and football, but has more rules than hockey and soccer.

    I love the consistent pressure situations that basketball creates through individual possessions. I'm a racket sports guy, and basketball kinda reproduces that point by point pressure.

    I think if anything needs to be changed it's the amalgamation of some rules. Either more refs are needed, or rules need to be clearer to call.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Yeah, the numbers are explained by the rise in analytical coaching/scouting methods. The 3 point shot has become less of an initial fad, and much more of a tactical weapon.
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    Raptors Republic All-Star BigCamB's Avatar
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    I would rather they just made the three point line further out/ expanded the court a bit as mentioned above, instead of making a four point line. I love the three point shot, but I also love every other scoring skill as well. The post up ( described as highly inefficient by the anayltics crowd), mid range game Etc etc. Hopefully it doesn't keep going up and up, but I think it probably will.

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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Yeah, the numbers are explained by the rise in analytical coaching/scouting methods. The 3 point shot has become less of an initial fad, and much more of a tactical weapon.
    I like any post that can use "tactical weapon" in a sentence properly.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote BigCamB wrote: View Post
    I would rather they just made the three point line further out/ expanded the court a bit as mentioned above, instead of making a four point line. I love the three point shot, but I also love every other scoring skill as well. The post up ( described as highly inefficient by the anayltics crowd), mid range game Etc etc. Hopefully it doesn't keep going up and up, but I think it probably will.
    Really? I've never heard this before.

    You'd think the analytics crowd would conclude that the closer you are to the basket, the higher your FG% would be. Are teams better at sending double teams? Are players just poor post players these days?
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Really? I've never heard this before.

    You'd think the analytics crowd would conclude that the closer you are to the basket, the higher your FG% would be. Are teams better at sending double teams? Are players just poor post players these days?
    Actually that is a stat I've seen thrown around a fair bit. Apparently the post up is actually quite inefficient when used to shoot, with significantly fewer PPS than drives and 3 pointers. But a strong post up game can still draw double teams and create open perimeter shots, which is where the true value comes.

    So it's hard to determine efficiency when the shots are used to create efficient opportunities in future possessions.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star BigCamB's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Really? I've never heard this before.

    You'd think the analytics crowd would conclude that the closer you are to the basket, the higher your FG% would be. Are teams better at sending double teams? Are players just poor post players these days?
    I've read numerous times that they consider the best thing that can come out of a post up is to get a double team to kick out to an open shooter. Scoring from an ISO post up in itself, is inefficient. I think Boston's Brad Stevens was the one I can clearly remember hearing it from, but I've read it many times.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote BigCamB wrote: View Post
    I would rather they just made the three point line further out/ expanded the court a bit as mentioned above, instead of making a four point line. I love the three point shot, but I also love every other scoring skill as well. The post up ( described as highly inefficient by the anayltics crowd), mid range game Etc etc. Hopefully it doesn't keep going up and up, but I think it probably will.
    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Really? I've never heard this before.

    You'd think the analytics crowd would conclude that the closer you are to the basket, the higher your FG% would be. Are teams better at sending double teams? Are players just poor post players these days?
    I think analytics do like the post-up, but only as a part of the bigger picture. Look at Dwight Howard. In LA, he wasn't very successful. But in Orlando and now with Houston, he is being used in the analytic context with a bevy of 3 point shooters surrounding him. Put a strong post scorer on the block and surround him with 4 perimeter shooters and you have the analytics dream team. Shooters space the floor, making the post move more likely to be successful (thus increasing overall efficiency). Post ups also often draw fouls, which increases the Point per shot (and 1) while increasing pressure on the opponent via foul trouble.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Yeah, I guess that's where my surprise comes from. By "inefficient" are we simply talking about shooting percentages? Are possessions that draw fouls accounted for? We've noted the importance of drawing double-teams and finding open shooters.

    I find a general decline in quality post play, compared to 10-15 years ago, and I'm sad to see it. I think good offensive balance requires strong perimeter play as well as strong post play.

    Either way, it's an interesting topic.
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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Yeah, I guess that's where my surprise comes from. By "inefficient" are we simply talking about shooting percentages? Are possessions that draw fouls accounted for? We've noted the importance of drawing double-teams and finding open shooters.

    I find a general decline in quality post play, compared to 10-15 years ago, and I'm sad to see it. I think good offensive balance requires strong perimeter play as well as strong post play.

    Either way, it's an interesting topic.
    This is the type of data that sportVU tracking is supposed to make easy to get.

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