Confessions of a TANKER

[white men can't jump]

Regarding bold, and also gave Toronto the opportunity to keep 2 role players at their choosing. Vasquez is not a bad backup NBA point guard. Patterson is a great option off the bench. If they can be signed to reasonable contracts, awesome. If the Raptors match a reasonable contract, awesome. If they are looking for ridiculous contract, luckily they can agree to the QO and it gives them 1 more year. If they are looking for a ridiculous contract and another team offers it, Toronto can let them go.

Flexibility with a little bit of leverage is a great thing.

Yep. Leverage is generally critical when building team, *especially* anywhere that's not NY or LA. The Raptors are in a very powerful position as an organization compared to last spring. Seriously...Props to MU for dumping Bargs and Gay and in no way whatsoever compromising any future assets/flexibility. I'm a natural skeptic, so he'll have to keep impressing me, but so far, just an amazing job.

[white men can't jump]

apologies got my shitty GMs mixed up

No worries.

The problem in Milwaukee isn't the GM, it's the owner. He's both good and bad. It's great that he always wants a winning team, that he hates the idea of tanking. It's not ok that in striving for the playoffs he puts pressure on his management to try and make it at all costs, resulting in wasting money trying to put/keep inadequate pieces together.

[magoon]

A thought:

I would not be surprised in the slightest to see Ujiri trade either upwards in the first round or for an additional first-round pick, and use Terrence Ross to do it. This is not to say that I don't like Ross - I do - but I think a playoff round will push his stock even further than it currently is (and it's pretty good right now as it is), and there's an argument to trade him, which is: the Raptors will need to extend him and JV in the same year (summer 2015) and the cap space to do that will be at a premium given that 15 and 16 will be the years the Raps maybe want to make a splash in free agency - besides which, two players at the same time will be difficult to extend all on their own.

Basically: we don't have as dramatic a problem as Golden State having to choose between Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes, but it's still a problem for us going forward, and in a year where you have good draft stock (including multiple good Canadian players), I can definitely see Ujiri doing what he can to grab Ennis and/or Stauskas (who would both be very good fits here) to get those precious long-term rookie deals, fill out the bench with rooks and cheap vets, and go forward that way.

[thead]

For those interested

2000 4/60 = 6%
2001 11/60 = 18%
2002 12/60 = 20%
2003 21/60 = 35%
2004 20/60 = 33%
2005 23/60 = 38%
2006 17/60 = 28%
2007 19/60 = 32%
2008 31/60 = 52%
2009 33/60 = 55%
2010 25/60 = 42%
2011 35/60 = 58%
2012 42/60 = 70%
2013 45/60 = 75%

the official still in the league tracker...

[JimiCliff]

David Kahn was with the TWolves....

The Bucks frequently rely on trying to do it with several mid-range talents (*along with what they hope will be contributing youngsters). And "doing it" becomes being a perennial treadmill team. It's 8th seed or bust mentality. You need top level talent, which likely means having to pay a premium for at least a player or two.

I'm sure many here know about this, but there's also a greater underlying issue/hindrance that comes along with signing mid-range talents, which is: mid-range players are "correctly" valued, in that that the NBA contract market has, to a certain extent, determined their figure. Max contracts are often undervalued - sometimes vastly - because their upper limit is determined by the CBA, not the market. And this can let you to get around the salary cap.

When talking about what Lebron would get paid if there were no cap, people throw around crazy numbers, like $50 million a year. If this was allowed, there's no way the Heat could have signed their big 3. They could have signed 1. In this salary world, it's conceivable that a team of only mid-range players could compete with anyone. Until then, it probably isn't possible.

[Bandit]

I'm sure many here know about this, but there's also a greater underlying issue/hindrance that comes along with signing mid-range talents, which is: mid-range players are "correctly" valued, in that that the NBA contract market has, to a certain extent, determined their figure. Max contracts are often undervalued - sometimes vastly - because their upper limit is determined by the CBA, not the market. And this can let you to get around the salary cap.

When talking about what Lebron would get paid if there were no cap, people throw around crazy numbers, like $50 million a year. If this was allowed, there's no way the Heat could have signed their big 3. They could have signed 1. In this salary world, it's conceivable that a team of only mid-range players could compete with anyone. Until then, it probably isn't possible.

That's an excellent way to put it, I was thinking about that concept the other day. It's why any good contract helps to make an excellent asset. It's not so much about spending the cap, but rather how efficient every dollar spent is

[white men can't jump]

A thought:

I would not be surprised in the slightest to see Ujiri trade either upwards in the first round or for an additional first-round pick, and use Terrence Ross to do it. This is not to say that I don't like Ross - I do - but I think a playoff round will push his stock even further than it currently is (and it's pretty good right now as it is), and there's an argument to trade him, which is: the Raptors will need to extend him and JV in the same year (summer 2015) and the cap space to do that will be at a premium given that 15 and 16 will be the years the Raps maybe want to make a splash in free agency - besides which, two players at the same time will be difficult to extend all on their own.

Basically: we don't have as dramatic a problem as Golden State having to choose between Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes, but it's still a problem for us going forward, and in a year where you have good draft stock (including multiple good Canadian players), I can definitely see Ujiri doing what he can to grab Ennis and/or Stauskas (who would both be very good fits here) to get those precious long-term rookie deals, fill out the bench with rooks and cheap vets, and go forward that way.

I would not trade Ross for Stauskas. Stauskas is going to have serious problems defensively at the NBA level, to say the least. Ross is already a very good shooter in the NBA, and showing flashes of being a lockdown perimeter defender. As good as Stauskas is in college, he'll have a lot of trouble being more than a shooter in the NBA. He'll have to really bust his ass to be something more. And when I say bust his ass, I mean like put DeMar's work ethic to shame. I see his absolute best-case as JJ Redick-ish...and I'd take what I hope Ross will be in his prime over Redick 10 times out of 10.

I don't particularly want to trade Ross away at all, but I agree he's their best chip if they want to move up. He still has room to grow as a player, is super athletic, and already effective in a certain role on both ends.

Ennis would definitely be a conversation starter though. Love his game. And I'd also have to seriously consider it if they can get in the 5-10 range of the draft with Ross. Maybe for Vonleh or Smart?

Also, both JV and Ross are signed through 2016, so while they can discuss extensions in summer 2015, nothing needs to happen at that time.

In the end, I hope that if Masai wants to trade up, he doesn't end up having to give up Ross, JV or DeMar. Amir could be a good chip. Might be able to sneak into the mid-late lottery with him and a pick-swap. I like Amir a lot, but he'll be on the last year of his deal, and is an excellent fit-in-anywhere high efficiency player. Could have solid value. Same might be true for Patterson if he comes back healthy and finishes the year strong (in a S&T obviously).

[Superjudge]

Good Post Matt.

I don't really have a confession, mostly because I am usually pretty up front about what I think.

I'm a tanker.

Still am..... think it was the right call.

Things is, Toronto DID tank.

Punting Gay was supposed to help it along. The tank was already fried up and rolling, Masai terminated Gay for pine riders and got blindsided by chemistry and unlikely player epiphanies.

I remember thinking he left that too long to be honest....was thrilled when it happened, then bang, they roll off wins like its nobodies business and I'm thinking, ok you need to lose Lowry, now!!! Because lets be honest.... Lowry is likely gone in 60 seconds at years end..... and nothing in return.

So really what you see is this. A failed tank, that produced a few great stories and some positives, but in the end will amount to little if and when the MVP bolts for a southern market. A decent team, yes, but when I compare this team, the absolute shit show of awesome hype getting Wiggans might have created..... AND YES, I am happy with just a chance with the lottery balls. Then yes, no comparison.

Toronto, might well make this work. You never see some things coming, you just dont. I think, UM got VERY lucky through all this and will come out looking like a genius, all the while wiping his brow with he handkerchief thinking "god damn...wtf just happened".

Success in failure.

Thats what has happened. So now, if Masai is anywhere as good as people say he is, what he does with the luck he has stumbled upon will be how he is judged.... it starts with finding a way to convince Lowry he needs to be in Canada.

Good luck.

[psrs1]

I don't think this season could have worked out any better for the Toronto Raptors (outside of the #1 draft pick which is only a 25% possibility even with the WORST record in the league and all the consequences that can go along with that).

I was 100% full on the tank wagon. The lure of the promise and potential of the "greatest NBA draft since LeBron, Wade, Carmelo, and Bosh" was too much "hope" for this jaded Raptor fan.

The reality (reality in this case being my opinion, haha) is for those who are/were tankers, you were dead right. The 2012-13 run to end last season was an #AprilFoolsGoldRun at its finest. Had the Raptors stayed with Gay, this season would have been an utter poop show and waste. With the epic tanks put in by a number of teams, the Raptors likely would have been sitting in current Detroit/Cleveland territory - not awful enough to get a top 5 record, not good enough to even sniff at the playoffs: awful ball, Ross buried on the bench, JV ignored more than he already is after 1st Q, no stat sheets, DeRozan an inefficient side kick, a passive Lowry, no depth/bench (which is scary considering current lack of depth and bench)..... oh what dreadful prospects indeed.


So thinking the last few games it has dawned on me: the Raptors are in the best position possible.

1) Gay is gone along with the contract and chucking.... oh and stat sheets are back I believe.

2) Ross and JV are legit starters on a playoff team and are just 23 and 21 respectively. There is little guessing as to what the Raptors actually have in those two players now; the only guessing is how good will they become.

3) DeRozan is an All-Star and his trade stock no longer comes with the "potential" attachment. Ujiri has a real trade chip to offer teams if he chooses - in terms of talent and contract.

4) Financial flexibility moving forward. The Raptors are in a position to take on contracts for assets via trade this coming off season with cap space and the friendly contracts of Salmons and Hansbrough. Next year they will have, even hypothetically signing Lowry at $10M per, $30M in cap space as of now. That will change but it is safe to say they should have enough for a max deal to offer.

5) There is a skeleton shell or core of a young team is in place (top 7 players are 27 or younger: Lowry (27), Vasquez (27), Amir (26), DeRozan (24), Patterson (24), Ross (23), JV (21)) and, at least this season, is shown to be a playoff team. Lots of teams have youth but not all teams have youth who are known to belong in the NBA - potential is great, reality is better. Add to this a first round draft pick in the 20 range and the history Ujiri and Weltman have drafting in mid first round and later and the Raptors might have another young piece to add to the core soon.

6) To every action there is a reaction. Bill Simmons look at the perfection Philadelphia achieved in tanking had some scary thoughts for a tanking team:






7) Players coming off winning teams are looked at differently - #truth. Should Ujiri look to trade players, DeRozan, Amir, Lowry, Ross, JV are all going to be looked at in a different light due to their team's success. Look at the contracts Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry were given last summer after solid a season with Golden State. Winning is the Clearasil of the NBA.




The only real worry/concern I have is Lowry: does he walk for nothing or is this a contract year mirage? My concern is not so much about is he back or not. The bigger issue, for me, is: do the Raptors lose an asset for nothing or next to nothing?



Maybe I'm a dreamer here. Maybe I'm grasping at straws to be optimistic. But I see a lot of good and a lot of possibilities with this current roster (whether the roster stays the same or changes significantly).

What do you think?

Good post. As long as Lowry re-signs we will be 3 years ahead of where we would have been finishing 9-10th if Gay had not been traded.

[Jclaw]

I have gone through the same avatar transformation as well. I wasn't passionate for tanking but if we happened to suck , we might as well suck in the right year (the "if it's good enough for the Lakers and Celtics" theory). But that's a fallback plan. Try and hit the lottery if there is nothing else we can do. I almost laughed when I read the other day that Sacramento has not had a pick outside of the top ten since 2008. The reality is that we have as much chance of getting a "franchise altering talent" (I like that term too) through a trade or free agency. Keep in mind that the upward development of the Raptors has a chance to mirror the development of Canadian basketball stars who may not mind taking money to play in the snow. Faith in MU. I had the faith that he would tank if needed. Now I have the faith for him to build.

[Raptor Jesus]

I confess to having about as little faith in all things Toronto sports as Creationist in the fossil record.

That said, transforming our troubled Raptors was going to take a Herculean effort.
For every franchise building model that a team employs successfully; there are upteen copy cat franchises fucking up large. For every plug and play system like Boston, Miami and LA scooping up talent and making big 2/3/4s there's the Knicks.
For every Draft Develop Draw in talent system like OKC current Clippers, there's the Clippers every other iteration than this one.

I saw two amazing things happen since the latest saviour rode into town, Il Mago disappear and then Gay express overnighted in exchange for serviceable widgets turned legit B squad.

Then I watched a great and deserved thing in DD and KLOE rise to an occasion, bringing their team-mates along with them. MU either through force of gravity emanating from his junk or sheer luck from Dolans' myopic bargaining skills stuck it out. Giving him the chance to fully evaluate his cards before playing them. The season has been eye opening our prospect as bright as ever been since 02 and as has been noted flexibility and leverage abound.

Turning KLOE into Ennis if we fail to sign him pushes our 'contention' window but fits well with our pipe dream of seducing KD! So that's something.

[ezz_bee]

A lot of good points. But I believe the main goal of tanking was to land that "franchise-altering" talent. The type of player what every team with championship aspirations requires.

I'm enjoying this current streak the Raptors have been on. But turning them into a legit contender seems like a daunting task without a realistic plan to obtain that elusive elite player.

The most realistic plan is to draft such a player.

I'm sure MU/TL have plenty of "plans", but since they operate in the dark, I'm not prepared to assume everything will work out for the best without knowing any details.

Although I was a card carrying member of the tank brigade, for me it's about asset management and value acquisition.

Although I'll be happy if we win at least 2 games in the SECOND ROUND of the playoffs, my worry is that when we look back a few years from now this season will seem like a "lost year" an example of circumstantial success that was not able to be built upon.

I think their are three options with Lowry,

Resigns with Toronto over-paid
Signs with someone else over-paid
Resigns with Toronto not overpaid

2 out of 3 of those scenarios are bad.

If lowry walks Masai is forced to either rebuild/tank on the heels of playoff success, which will be a tough sell to the fan base, NOT resigning Lowry means we have a ceiling of the 3-4 seed, but probably end up in the 6-10 range aka "the treadmill".

I have faith in Masai, but I'm skeptical, why the heck did it take him two months to trade Gay?

Anyway Masai gets a pass until next season's trade deadline... but the road from here to the finals is murky at best...

[Fully]

Good opening post, and lots of good replies since then that cover varying sides and angles.

I banged the rebuild drum all summer long and up to the Rudy Gay trade. I thought the team was going nowhere with the DD/Gay/Lowry core, and the uncertainty of Gay's contract for next year (to say nothing about him making $20 million dollars in 2014-15) made it really difficult to formulate a plan moving forward. I assumed that whatever pieces moved out in order to shake up the roster would return more future value than present day value - draft picks, young project players, expiring deals, etc. I never wanted a Philadelphia-esque blowout sale where anyone who would help them win games had to be shipped out for pennies on the dollar. I just wanted a new direction, more options moving forward and for guys like Ross and JV to be able to develop. While this was happening, I thought a top draft pick in 2014 would be an awesome bi-product of it all.

What Masai's exact intentions were when he swung the deal with Sacramento will probably always be a mystery, but I think you have to be a little naive to believe that the team would take off like this. It's not like he scanned players around the league and said to himself "I bet PP, Hayes, Vasquez and Salmons are who we need to turn it around in Toronto!" By all accounts the Kings were the only team who was willing to trade for Gay and even that was a huge surprise to most. Most of those players were struggling mightily in Sacramento too. At the time, it looked like we were getting one decent piece in Vasquez and the rest were throw ins to match Gay's enormous salary.

Throw in all the Lowry rumours in the following week and the widespread reporting in both Toronto and abroad that the rebuild was on and I'd still maintain that Ujiri didn't see this coming.

All of that is a moot point now however. The team has taken off and if the playoffs began today they would be holding home court in a playoff series. The books are cleared up considerably, and Ujiri hasn't had to sacrifice any young players or future draft picks to get them in a playoff position. Somehow - he's even managed to gain a few extra picks along the way. He has done what I deemed impossible about six months ago - improved the team in the short term while expanding on his options moving forward. Did he get lucky along the way by catching lightning in a bottle with this group? Absolutely - but he deserves credit for being flexible in his approach and for sticking to his word of letting his players dictate their own direction.

Is there still a chance that we look back at this season in a few years and call it a throw away? It's tough to think about with all the positivity swirling around the team right now but it's a possibility. It depends on what happens with Lowry this summer (and in subsequent seasons), what their 2014 draft picks ends up being, what they do with their 2015 cap space, etc. I'd spend a lot more time worrying about those things if we were trudging through another 35 win season - with quality basketball being played and playoffs on the horizon, it's a lot easier to just enjoy the present and cross those bridges when they approach. Masai has earned the benefit of the doubt.

[JawsGT]

I don't think there was ever going to be a tank. Most are convinced that the Gay trade was a sign of that, I am not. I believe Masai got what he wanted in that trade, financial flexibility and very serviceable players. I doubt he predicted how well it would turn out, but I also doubt he thought that the team would plummet. I think he knew Casey would find ways to get good minutes out of Vasquez and Patterson and Salmons. We had holes on our bench and he filled them. As for Lowry, even if he had been traded after Gay, which many are convinced Ujiri was trying to do but I am not (hey, did any of you hear rumblings of the Bargs or Gay trades?), I doubt the team would have sucked enough to tank properly. It would have required more trades afterward, specifically Derozan. Now maybe if the team started to lose after a hypothetical Lowry trade, then Masai would have pulled the trigger on more trades to facilitate the tank. But the players gelled and the chemistry was evident and Masai rolled with it.

There will be no tank, with or without Lowry, next season. If he walks, we still have a decent team with upside that will make the playoffs in the East, unless Masai makes other moves to strip the roster of talent. Not happening IMO. This roster will be tweaked until it's clear it's a contender or not, and that's going to take another season or two or three to determine. Ross and JV and the keys. If they continue to improve and get better, this team can get better as well. I don't know about you guys, but over the past 5 or so games, I just get the feeling that in a year or two, JV and Ross will be able to carry this team themselves. Add in the possibility of adding another all-star level talent and well, you have a recipe for success. If you think the direction of this team going forward is predicated on Lowry's decision this offseason, then I would have to disagree. Like Matt said, the future is bright!!

[mcHAPPY]

A thought:

I would not be surprised in the slightest to see Ujiri trade either upwards in the first round or for an additional first-round pick, and use Terrence Ross to do it. This is not to say that I don't like Ross - I do - but I think a playoff round will push his stock even further than it currently is (and it's pretty good right now as it is), and there's an argument to trade him, which is: the Raptors will need to extend him and JV in the same year (summer 2015) and the cap space to do that will be at a premium given that 15 and 16 will be the years the Raps maybe want to make a splash in free agency - besides which, two players at the same time will be difficult to extend all on their own.

Basically: we don't have as dramatic a problem as Golden State having to choose between Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes, but it's still a problem for us going forward, and in a year where you have good draft stock (including multiple good Canadian players), I can definitely see Ujiri doing what he can to grab Ennis and/or Stauskas (who would both be very good fits here) to get those precious long-term rookie deals, fill out the bench with rooks and cheap vets, and go forward that way.

I don't think Ross goes anywhere. If a SG is to be traded I believe it will be DeRozan. This is part of my thinking: the key Raptors have all raised their trade value through team success - which was achieved by individual success.

Why?
Analytics - Ujiri pays attention to them.
Financial flexibility - Not so much this season but 2014-15 and 2015-16.
Stability - In the summer of '16 DD can opt out of his final year; Raps can control Ross for another 6 seasons.
Higher trade value in DeRozan - due to AS status and $9.5M contract (i.e. what you can get back at $9.5M versus $3.3M).
Ujiri's wing acquisition history - Chandler, Gallo, Fernandez, Corey Brewer, Hamilton, Fournier, Quincy Miller (all guys who can hit the 3 and/or are good defenders).

We'll see though. This is just my opinion. Not trying to say, "I am right! You are wrong!" by any means.



Also, Ross and JV don't need to be resigned until the summer of 2016 when they'll be restricted free agents with a collective cap hold of ~ $20M. Signing them any earlier for more than their cap hold would be risky if they have 2016 free agent aspirations.