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Now that the playoffs are near, I thought it was worth taking a look at the specific team stats for the Raps and their possible play-off match-ups, and since I couldn't really find an appropriate thread, I started a new one.
For a while, a lot of the conversations about who we should play have been using the team stats, and team stats since the Gay trade, but neither of these are very relevant. Our team stats both before and after the Gay trade include games against the 76ers, Celtics, and Western conference teams, none of which are relevant at this stage.
So I took the top 8 opponent teams in the East and looked at the Raps stats and their opponent stats in those games. The stats we taken using the team stats for the games between these teams only (so filtering out all the games against other teams).
The teams, Nets, Bobcats, Bulls, Pacers, Heats, Knicks, Wiz and Hawks.
The NETS
2-2 Season Series
Point Differential: +2.8 vs the Nets
TRB Differential: +4.8
TO Differential -0.7
FG%
Raps 44.92% Nets 46.79%
3P%
Raps 38.75 Nets 40.87%
The Raps hold a slight PPG advantage of 2.8, which means we are looking at games coming down to a single possession. Keys to victory should lie in the # of extra possessions a team can get via offensive boards and turnovers. The Raps do hold a rebounding advantage, but barely lose the TO battle. That 0.7 extra turnover for the Nets each game, could potential make the difference in a series this tight. The biggest concern I see here is the shooting %; the Nets shoot better than the Raps in both FG and 3P. The FG% is just a bit higher than the NETS regular season average (45.6%) and the 3P% is higher than normal (37.2%). Big time players make big shots, and the Nets have lots of players who have hit those shots in their career. With a wealth of options for a game winner (Pierce, Deron, KG), the Raps are a bit disadvantaged.
The Wizards
3-1 season series
Point Differential +6.5
TRB Differential -5.
TO Differential -0.8
FG%
Raps 49.52% Wiz 44.57%
3P%
Raps 40.93% Wiz 29.09%
The Wiz are the best probable match-up for the Raps based on record, and point differential. The only loss being a triple-OT game means the Raps would have the most confidence entering this match-up. We have been able to keep the Wiz's shooting %'s a bit below their season avg (FG% 45.5%) and have done a really good job defending their 3P shots (38.7% season avg). Taking away some explosive scoring runs would make a big difference. The biggest concern here has to be the rebounding differential of -5. That is a fairly large margin to consistently lose by.
The Bobcats
0-3
Point Differential -3
TRB Differential +7.3
TO Differential -0.7
FG%
Raps 42.56% Bobcats 47.95%
3P%
Raps 32.49% Bobcats 43.79%
A lot of red flags in this match-up. We've lost all 3 games. Our shooting %s are quite poor (44% and 36% are our avg) while the Bobcats are above season average (44% and 34%) especially from 3P. While we have done well on the glass (+7.3), those %s are a lot to make up. We will need to find a way to improve our defence in what would become a very Al Jeff-Kemba centric offence for Charlotte.
The Bulls
2-2
Point Differential +2.5
TRB Differential -2.2
TO Differential -2.3
FG%
Raps 41.99% Bulls 41.63%
3P%
Raps 25.6% Bulls 39.86%
Without Rose, the Bulls are still a good team. Holding the Raps to 25% from deep is a huge blow to our chances of beating the Bulls in a series. Both teams shoot low FG%, but the Bulls managed to raise their 3P% from 34% to 39.86%. That is crazy. The 2.5 point differential again shows a one possession game series, but since we lose the rebounding and turnover battles, I wouldn't want to draw this series.
Hawks
2-2
Point +4.7
TRB +6
TO -0.3
FG%
Raps 44.29% Hawks 42.80%
3P%
Raps 31.92% Hawks 30.86%
Very unlikely that this would be one of our match-ups, but just in case, here are the numbers. We edge them in almost every category and feel fairly confident we could pull this one out, despite the 2-2 record.
NYK
2-0
Point Differential +13.5
TRB Differential +8
TO Differential 0
FG%
Raps 43.79% NYK 43.4%
3P%
Raps 41.67% NYK 42.5%
The Knicks are surging and could make a run for a higher seed. If so, the Raps have had success against the Knicks, but the season momentum would be a concern. Even with our 2 big wins, the Knicks are shooting 42.5% from 3 against us.
2nd Round Considerations
Pacers
Record 1-2
Point Differential -0.3
TRB Differential -3.3
TO Differential -3.6
FG%
Raps 40% Pacers 43.99%
3P%
Raps 32.09% Pacers 26.14%
Better option than the Heat. Point differential is tight. In a close game, our better 3P% could help us steal the game if we can hang around late. Their defence holds us to 40%, the lowest of all the comparisons.
Heat
0-4
Point Differential -7.8
TRB Differential -1.2
TO Differential +1
FG%
Raps 45.64% Heat 48.76%
3P%
Raps 29.44% Heat 35.96%
The Heat have and will continue to manhandle the Raps.
For a while, a lot of the conversations about who we should play have been using the team stats, and team stats since the Gay trade, but neither of these are very relevant. Our team stats both before and after the Gay trade include games against the 76ers, Celtics, and Western conference teams, none of which are relevant at this stage.
So I took the top 8 opponent teams in the East and looked at the Raps stats and their opponent stats in those games. The stats we taken using the team stats for the games between these teams only (so filtering out all the games against other teams).
The teams, Nets, Bobcats, Bulls, Pacers, Heats, Knicks, Wiz and Hawks.
The NETS
2-2 Season Series
Point Differential: +2.8 vs the Nets
TRB Differential: +4.8
TO Differential -0.7
FG%
Raps 44.92% Nets 46.79%
3P%
Raps 38.75 Nets 40.87%
The Raps hold a slight PPG advantage of 2.8, which means we are looking at games coming down to a single possession. Keys to victory should lie in the # of extra possessions a team can get via offensive boards and turnovers. The Raps do hold a rebounding advantage, but barely lose the TO battle. That 0.7 extra turnover for the Nets each game, could potential make the difference in a series this tight. The biggest concern I see here is the shooting %; the Nets shoot better than the Raps in both FG and 3P. The FG% is just a bit higher than the NETS regular season average (45.6%) and the 3P% is higher than normal (37.2%). Big time players make big shots, and the Nets have lots of players who have hit those shots in their career. With a wealth of options for a game winner (Pierce, Deron, KG), the Raps are a bit disadvantaged.
The Wizards
3-1 season series
Point Differential +6.5
TRB Differential -5.
TO Differential -0.8
FG%
Raps 49.52% Wiz 44.57%
3P%
Raps 40.93% Wiz 29.09%
The Wiz are the best probable match-up for the Raps based on record, and point differential. The only loss being a triple-OT game means the Raps would have the most confidence entering this match-up. We have been able to keep the Wiz's shooting %'s a bit below their season avg (FG% 45.5%) and have done a really good job defending their 3P shots (38.7% season avg). Taking away some explosive scoring runs would make a big difference. The biggest concern here has to be the rebounding differential of -5. That is a fairly large margin to consistently lose by.
The Bobcats
0-3
Point Differential -3
TRB Differential +7.3
TO Differential -0.7
FG%
Raps 42.56% Bobcats 47.95%
3P%
Raps 32.49% Bobcats 43.79%
A lot of red flags in this match-up. We've lost all 3 games. Our shooting %s are quite poor (44% and 36% are our avg) while the Bobcats are above season average (44% and 34%) especially from 3P. While we have done well on the glass (+7.3), those %s are a lot to make up. We will need to find a way to improve our defence in what would become a very Al Jeff-Kemba centric offence for Charlotte.
The Bulls
2-2
Point Differential +2.5
TRB Differential -2.2
TO Differential -2.3
FG%
Raps 41.99% Bulls 41.63%
3P%
Raps 25.6% Bulls 39.86%
Without Rose, the Bulls are still a good team. Holding the Raps to 25% from deep is a huge blow to our chances of beating the Bulls in a series. Both teams shoot low FG%, but the Bulls managed to raise their 3P% from 34% to 39.86%. That is crazy. The 2.5 point differential again shows a one possession game series, but since we lose the rebounding and turnover battles, I wouldn't want to draw this series.
Hawks
2-2
Point +4.7
TRB +6
TO -0.3
FG%
Raps 44.29% Hawks 42.80%
3P%
Raps 31.92% Hawks 30.86%
Very unlikely that this would be one of our match-ups, but just in case, here are the numbers. We edge them in almost every category and feel fairly confident we could pull this one out, despite the 2-2 record.
NYK
2-0
Point Differential +13.5
TRB Differential +8
TO Differential 0
FG%
Raps 43.79% NYK 43.4%
3P%
Raps 41.67% NYK 42.5%
The Knicks are surging and could make a run for a higher seed. If so, the Raps have had success against the Knicks, but the season momentum would be a concern. Even with our 2 big wins, the Knicks are shooting 42.5% from 3 against us.
2nd Round Considerations
Pacers
Record 1-2
Point Differential -0.3
TRB Differential -3.3
TO Differential -3.6
FG%
Raps 40% Pacers 43.99%
3P%
Raps 32.09% Pacers 26.14%
Better option than the Heat. Point differential is tight. In a close game, our better 3P% could help us steal the game if we can hang around late. Their defence holds us to 40%, the lowest of all the comparisons.
Heat
0-4
Point Differential -7.8
TRB Differential -1.2
TO Differential +1
FG%
Raps 45.64% Heat 48.76%
3P%
Raps 29.44% Heat 35.96%
The Heat have and will continue to manhandle the Raps.
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