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Thread: Assessing our team vs possible playoff opponents

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Default Assessing our team vs possible playoff opponents

    Now that the playoffs are near, I thought it was worth taking a look at the specific team stats for the Raps and their possible play-off match-ups, and since I couldn't really find an appropriate thread, I started a new one.

    For a while, a lot of the conversations about who we should play have been using the team stats, and team stats since the Gay trade, but neither of these are very relevant. Our team stats both before and after the Gay trade include games against the 76ers, Celtics, and Western conference teams, none of which are relevant at this stage.

    So I took the top 8 opponent teams in the East and looked at the Raps stats and their opponent stats in those games. The stats we taken using the team stats for the games between these teams only (so filtering out all the games against other teams).

    The teams, Nets, Bobcats, Bulls, Pacers, Heats, Knicks, Wiz and Hawks.

    The NETS
    2-2 Season Series
    Point Differential: +2.8 vs the Nets
    TRB Differential: +4.8
    TO Differential -0.7
    FG%
    Raps 44.92% Nets 46.79%
    3P%
    Raps 38.75 Nets 40.87%

    The Raps hold a slight PPG advantage of 2.8, which means we are looking at games coming down to a single possession. Keys to victory should lie in the # of extra possessions a team can get via offensive boards and turnovers. The Raps do hold a rebounding advantage, but barely lose the TO battle. That 0.7 extra turnover for the Nets each game, could potential make the difference in a series this tight. The biggest concern I see here is the shooting %; the Nets shoot better than the Raps in both FG and 3P. The FG% is just a bit higher than the NETS regular season average (45.6%) and the 3P% is higher than normal (37.2%). Big time players make big shots, and the Nets have lots of players who have hit those shots in their career. With a wealth of options for a game winner (Pierce, Deron, KG), the Raps are a bit disadvantaged.

    The Wizards
    3-1 season series
    Point Differential +6.5
    TRB Differential -5.
    TO Differential -0.8
    FG%
    Raps 49.52% Wiz 44.57%
    3P%
    Raps 40.93% Wiz 29.09%

    The Wiz are the best probable match-up for the Raps based on record, and point differential. The only loss being a triple-OT game means the Raps would have the most confidence entering this match-up. We have been able to keep the Wiz's shooting %'s a bit below their season avg (FG% 45.5%) and have done a really good job defending their 3P shots (38.7% season avg). Taking away some explosive scoring runs would make a big difference. The biggest concern here has to be the rebounding differential of -5. That is a fairly large margin to consistently lose by.

    The Bobcats
    0-3
    Point Differential -3
    TRB Differential +7.3
    TO Differential -0.7
    FG%
    Raps 42.56% Bobcats 47.95%
    3P%
    Raps 32.49% Bobcats 43.79%

    A lot of red flags in this match-up. We've lost all 3 games. Our shooting %s are quite poor (44% and 36% are our avg) while the Bobcats are above season average (44% and 34%) especially from 3P. While we have done well on the glass (+7.3), those %s are a lot to make up. We will need to find a way to improve our defence in what would become a very Al Jeff-Kemba centric offence for Charlotte.

    The Bulls
    2-2
    Point Differential +2.5
    TRB Differential -2.2
    TO Differential -2.3
    FG%
    Raps 41.99% Bulls 41.63%
    3P%
    Raps 25.6% Bulls 39.86%

    Without Rose, the Bulls are still a good team. Holding the Raps to 25% from deep is a huge blow to our chances of beating the Bulls in a series. Both teams shoot low FG%, but the Bulls managed to raise their 3P% from 34% to 39.86%. That is crazy. The 2.5 point differential again shows a one possession game series, but since we lose the rebounding and turnover battles, I wouldn't want to draw this series.

    Hawks
    2-2
    Point +4.7
    TRB +6
    TO -0.3
    FG%
    Raps 44.29% Hawks 42.80%
    3P%
    Raps 31.92% Hawks 30.86%

    Very unlikely that this would be one of our match-ups, but just in case, here are the numbers. We edge them in almost every category and feel fairly confident we could pull this one out, despite the 2-2 record.

    NYK
    2-0
    Point Differential +13.5
    TRB Differential +8
    TO Differential 0
    FG%
    Raps 43.79% NYK 43.4%
    3P%
    Raps 41.67% NYK 42.5%

    The Knicks are surging and could make a run for a higher seed. If so, the Raps have had success against the Knicks, but the season momentum would be a concern. Even with our 2 big wins, the Knicks are shooting 42.5% from 3 against us.

    2nd Round Considerations

    Pacers

    Record 1-2
    Point Differential -0.3
    TRB Differential -3.3
    TO Differential -3.6
    FG%
    Raps 40% Pacers 43.99%
    3P%
    Raps 32.09% Pacers 26.14%

    Better option than the Heat. Point differential is tight. In a close game, our better 3P% could help us steal the game if we can hang around late. Their defence holds us to 40%, the lowest of all the comparisons.

    Heat
    0-4
    Point Differential -7.8
    TRB Differential -1.2
    TO Differential +1
    FG%
    Raps 45.64% Heat 48.76%
    3P%
    Raps 29.44% Heat 35.96%

    The Heat have and will continue to manhandle the Raps.
    Last edited by Axel; Wed Apr 2nd, 2014 at 07:29 AM.

  2. #2
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    Great write up. Obviously there are more than just stats to look at when talking about playoffs (i.e experience, the Lowry factor, etc.) but it is good to see how we have fared against our potential playoff opponents in the regular season for the major statistical categories

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    Raptors Republic All-Star mike, prague's Avatar
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    Nice job Axel. I have to agree with what JRedmond14 said, but I still do appreciate the work.

    Detail: JET is no longer in Brooklyn, he was traded in the trade with Sacramento and is taking the rest of the season off, because he is ... homophobic? And wants to recover from an injury that I'm not sure he has.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote mike, prague wrote: View Post
    Nice job Axel. I have to agree with what JRedmond14 said, but I still do appreciate the work.

    Detail: JET is no longer in Brooklyn, he was traded in the trade with Sacramento and is taking the rest of the season off, because he is ... homophobic? And wants to recover from an injury that I'm not sure he has.
    Whoops, corrected.

    Obviously there is more than the stats, but this is where the conversation should start. Why do the Nets shoot so much better from deep against us than against other teams? How will we fix that? What will the Wiz do to improve their 3P shooting against us? How can we maintain that advantage?

    Those are real questions that will make the difference between winning and losing in the post-season. If we play Charlotte, our 36% 3P% is irrelevant if we can't correct the 32% we've shot against them this year.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Definitely appreciate the effort and very useful determine some things that are worth addressing.

    The fact that we don't have a clear advantage head to head vs. the Nets, Bulls, or Bobcats is pretty discouraging.

    Part of me wants the Nets or Bulls, just because we won't win unless we deserve it.

    If we lose in the first round to the nets, the entire post-gay season will have been a waste.
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Wed Apr 2nd, 2014 at 08:20 AM.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Raptors Republic Starter JordanMariam14's Avatar
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    We can get to 50 wins if we go 8-0 in our next games. Only hard teams are Pacers and Rockets, who we could beat with the beef in Indiana and Howard+Beverly out.

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    Raptors Republic Starter JordanMariam14's Avatar
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    But of course, we may not even beat the 6 easy teams

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    Raptors Republic Rookie RepTdot's Avatar
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    great breakdown Axel, I think the numbers and common basketball sense speak for themselves...right now the best case scenario is Raps finish 3rd, Mia finish 1st. 1st rd- we match up against Was & 2nd rd- a struggling Pacers in a funk.

    We have two tough match ups against contenders in Hou & Ind which will a real test for us against true contenders...after that the schedule is a joke except I would not just overlook the Knicks right now cause we have 2 games left against em and they are desperate & hungry right now for that 8 seed with ATL sinking...we're looking realistically at going 5-3 or 6-2 the rest of the way

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    I think we go 5-3. I don't know where we land up with that record but I don't think it will be 3rd.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TRex's Avatar
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    I said it before adn i'll say it again. The Wizards might be the easier opponent. But i want the Nets in the first round. Watching the Raptors play the Nets 4 times this season, there's no question in my mind that the Raptors can beat them.
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    Raptors Republic All-Star jacobdr4's Avatar
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    Quote TRex wrote: View Post
    I said it before adn i'll say it again. The Wizards might be the easier opponent. But i want the Nets in the first round. Watching the Raptors play the Nets 4 times this season, there's no question in my mind that the Raptors can beat them.
    This exactly. I dont want to play the easier team and sail through the first round. I want them to fight and gain some recognition by the beating the nets who the American media are deeming the team that could challenge miami.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote GLF wrote: View Post
    I think we go 5-3. I don't know where we land up with that record but I don't think it will be 3rd.
    Well, if they go 5-3 it's hard to see them finishing worse than 4th. The Bulls would have to go 6-2 and the Nets would have to go 8-1 (Raps will almost assuredly own the tiebreak). Wizards couldn't catch them even if they went 8-0.

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    Quote TRex wrote: View Post
    I said it before adn i'll say it again. The Wizards might be the easier opponent. But i want the Nets in the first round. Watching the Raptors play the Nets 4 times this season, there's no question in my mind that the Raptors can beat them.
    And what are your reasonings for thinking this? Yes we did split 2-2 with them but one game was on a back to back for them which won't happen in the playoffs and the other game we won was the whole Patterson steal thing that most definitely won't happen again. We also struggle to defend them because they have so many good one on one players and we don't guard the three well as a team. So I would really like to know why you're so confident? Maybe you're points will put me at ease a bit.

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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Well, if they go 5-3 it's hard to see them finishing worse than 4th. The Bulls would have to go 6-2 and the Nets would have to go 8-1 (Raps will almost assuredly own the tiebreak). Wizards couldn't catch them even if they went 8-0.
    Agreed. I was hoping we finish third but that is looking less and less likely, so 4th it is. I really hope we find a way to beat Brooklyn in the first round.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote TRex wrote: View Post
    I said it before adn i'll say it again. The Wizards might be the easier opponent. But i want the Nets in the first round. Watching the Raptors play the Nets 4 times this season, there's no question in my mind that the Raptors can beat them.
    Playoffs aren't the regular season. The Nets are playoff tested, deep and are playing great basketball. Plus, the Nets are going to get every, single call against the Raptors. Derozan and Lowry will be on the bench in the first 5 minutes every game. JV won't play more than 15 minutes.

    This is the same delusional thinking Raps fans had in 2007 about the Nets being too old, etc. The Nets are the last team we want to see.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TRex's Avatar
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Playoffs aren't the regular season. The Nets are playoff tested, deep and are playing great basketball. Plus, the Nets are going to get every, single call against the Raptors. Derozan and Lowry will be on the bench in the first 5 minutes every game. JV won't play more than 15 minutes.

    This is the same delusional thinking Raps fans had in 2007 about the Nets being too old, etc. The Nets are the last team we want to see.
    I had the Nets winning that series in 5 games. I think they won it in 6 games? i can't remember.

    But anyway, that Nets team was just a bad matchup for the Raps. Raps won the division that year but everyone knew the Nets were the superior team. VC, Jefferson and Kidd that year were in and out of the lineup in the regular season because of injuries. If they were healthy all year they would've won the division EASILY.

    This year's version of the Raptors and the Nets are different. Raptors are the better team there's NO QUESTION IN MY MIND. The only advantage the Nets have is they're more experienced. That's it. They're an old team. Slow. They're an average defensive team. Offensively, they like to play halfcourt style of basketball.

    The Raptors on the other hand is one of the best defensive team in the league. I know defensively they've struggled the last couple of weeks. But that's because they played a lot of run and gun teams. That's where their defense struggles at the most. But against an offense like the Nets who likes to play halfcourt basketball? that's where the Raptors defense is at their best.

    Offensively, the Raptors should be able to do what they want.
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    Quote JordanMariam14 wrote: View Post
    We can get to 50 wins if we go 8-0 in our next games. Only hard teams are Pacers and Rockets, who we could beat with the beef in Indiana and Howard+Beverly out.

    Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk
    I would be very surprised to go 8-0. The raps will lose one game they should win and will be lucky to get 1 of 2 vs Houston and Indy. It is looking more and more like a first round exit.

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    Quote TRex wrote: View Post
    I had the Nets winning that series in 5 games. I think they won it in 6 games? i can't remember.

    But anyway, that Nets team was just a bad matchup for the Raps. Raps won the division that year but everyone knew the Nets were the superior team. VC, Jefferson and Kidd that year were in and out of the lineup in the regular season because of injuries. If they were healthy all year they would've won the division EASILY.

    This year's version of the Raptors and the Nets are different. Raptors are the better team there's NO QUESTION IN MY MIND. The only advantage the Nets have is they're more experienced. That's it. They're an old team. Slow. They're an average defensive team. Offensively, they like to play halfcourt style of basketball.

    The Raptors on the other hand is one of the best defensive team in the league. I know defensively they've struggled the last couple of weeks. But that's because they played a lot of run and gun teams. That's where their defense struggles at the most. But against an offense like the Nets who likes to play halfcourt basketball? that's where the Raptors defense is at their best.

    Offensively, the Raptors should be able to do what they want.
    TRex I truly hope you are right re Nets but I just can't get to where you are at.

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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Playoffs aren't the regular season. The Nets are playoff tested, deep and are playing great basketball. Plus, the Nets are going to get every, single call against the Raptors. Derozan and Lowry will be on the bench in the first 5 minutes every game. JV won't play more than 15 minutes.

    This is the same delusional thinking Raps fans had in 2007 about the Nets being too old, etc. The Nets are the last team we want to see.
    That is what I'm most afraid of.
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