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What would YOU pay Lowry?

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  • OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
    Ok so I came up with three deals we could offer Lowry and calculated the cost against cap. All of them 5 years front loaded with maximum signing bonuses of 15% of total compensation with 4 years guaranteed with the fifth as a team option. I used the Early Bird Exception in order to have a salary decrease of 7.5%. First = $60,258411.72. Second = $55,954239.45. Third = $51,650067.19

    Deal 1
    Year Base Salary Signing Bonus Against Cap Total Against Cap
    1 11,740,309.56 2,259,690.44 14,000,000
    2 10,690,309.56 2,259,690.44 12,950,000
    3 9,719,059.56 2,259,690.44 11,978,750
    4 8,820,653.31 2,259,690.44 11,080,343.75
    5 - TO 10,249,317.97 - 10,249,317.97
    Total 51,219,649.96 9,038,761.76 60,258,411.72
    Deal 2
    Year Base Salary Signing Bonus Against Cap Total Against Cap
    1 10,901,716.02 2,098,283.98 13,000,000
    2 9,926,716.02 2,098,283.98 12,025,000
    3 9,024,841.02 2,098,283.98 11,123,125
    4 8,190,606.65 2,098,283.98 10,288,890.63
    5 - TO 9,517,223.83 - 9,517,223.83
    Total 47,561,103.54 8,393,135.92 55,954,239.45
    Deal 3
    Year Base Salary Signing Bonus Against Cap Total Against Cap
    1 10,063,122.48 1,936,877.52 12,000,000
    2 9,163,122.48 1,936,877.52 11,100,000
    3 8,330,622.48 1,936,877.52 10,267,500
    4 7,560,559.98 1,936,877.52 9,497,437.50
    5 - TO 8,785,129.69 - 8,785,129.69
    Total 43,902,557.11 7,747,510.08 51,650,067.19
    Personally, Deal #3 is perfect. Lowry gets a 5 year 52 mil deal while in the latter stages of his deal we are only paying out 10.2, 9.5 and a team option of 8.7 mil. Those are excellent numbers against the cap

    Deal number 2 isn't bad as his 4th year is only worth 10.2, and the team option is at 9.5.
    The deals listed here don't work. The final year base salary can only be a 7.5% raise over the 4th year base salary. Similarly, the final year total salary can only be that same 7.5% (of base salary) lower than the 4th year total salary. This is impossible with the 15% signing bonus. You can make it work by using non-guarantees instead of team options, and allocating some guaranteed salary into that final year (20% does the trick in these cases). So the offer for exactly 60M/5 years would be more like:

    11.59M + 2.14M = 13.73M
    10.72M + 2.14M = 12.86M
    9.85M + 2.14M = 12.10M
    8.98M + 2.14M = 11.23M
    9.85M (1.97M guaranteed) + 0.43M = 10.28M (2.40M guaranteed)
    Total 60M, 52.1M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

    Same goes for deal 2. For a 5 year, 56M deal, needs to be:

    10.82M + 2M = 12.92M
    10.01M + 2M = 12.11M
    9.20M + 2M = 11.30M
    8.38M + 2M = 10.48M
    9.20M (1.84M guaranteed) + 0.4M = 9.60M (2.24M guaranteed)
    Total 56M, 48.6M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

    Final deal, same idea. For a total of 52M over 5 years:

    10.05M + 1.86M = 11.90M
    9.29M + 1.86M = 11.15M
    8.54M + 1.86M = 10.40M
    7.79M + 1.86M = 9.64M
    8.54M (1.71M guaranteed) + 0.37M = 8.91M (2.08M guaranteed)
    Total 52M, 45.2M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

    I agree that the 3rd deal is best. Lowry might not go for it though, and even the 1st deal gives a lot of leeway in that final year, even with a couple million in guaranteed salary.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • stooley wrote: View Post
      The only team that even can offer that is the lakers. But theyre gonna be gunning for KLove and Westbrook next year, I don't necessarily see them blowing their load so early.

      But yeah, otherwise you're right. Fingers crossed.
      They could sign Lowry and still sign Love in 2015, as long as they let Pau Gasol go (or he's cheap). Westbrook is under contract till 2017.

      I guess they could try to go after Love+another star in 2015, but if Lowry is willing to sign now, do they really pass because of such a long shot? Other than Love, many of the 2015 stars are either long shots from winning teams (Aldridge, Marc Gasol) or risky (Rondo, and I guess Hibbert falls there as well).

      I suppose this depends on how they see Lowry.

      Comment


      • mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
        A Kahn hiring in Detroit would all but ensure it.
        Does Kahn overpay good players? I think that goes against his philosophy. He only overpays Darko.

        Comment


        • BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
          They could sign Lowry and still sign Love in 2015, as long as they let Pau Gasol go (or he's cheap). Westbrook is under contract till 2017.

          I guess they could try to go after Love+another star in 2015, but if Lowry is willing to sign now, do they really pass because of such a long shot? Other than Love, many of the 2015 stars are either long shots from winning teams (Aldridge, Marc Gasol) or risky (Rondo, and I guess Hibbert falls there as well).

          I suppose this depends on how they see Lowry.
          I'm not sure it's a factor, but if it could hinder their ability to sign two max guys...Love in 2015, and possibly someone else in 2016 (LeBron, Durant and others will be free agents), then I can see them not having enough interest to throw an overpaying offer on the table.

          Comment


          • white men can't jump wrote: View Post
            I'm not sure it's a factor, but if it could hinder their ability to sign two max guys...Love in 2015, and possibly someone else in 2016 (LeBron, Durant and others will be free agents), then I can see them not having enough interest to throw an overpaying offer on the table.
            That depends on Kobe. His extension will expire by that time. As long as they don't give him another 25 mil a year deal.

            Comment


            • BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
              Does Kahn overpay good players? I think that goes against his philosophy. He only overpays Darko.
              Good enough reason to post this gem. Jump to 2:43:

              "Stop eating your sushi."
              "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
              "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
              - Jack Armstrong

              Comment


              • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
                Good enough reason to post this gem. Jump to 2:43:

                Lololol, Chris is just like, "how dare this dude mention me and Darko together". Don't blame him at all.

                Comment


                • DanH wrote: View Post
                  The deals listed here don't work. The final year base salary can only be a 7.5% raise over the 4th year base salary. Similarly, the final year total salary can only be that same 7.5% (of base salary) lower than the 4th year total salary. This is impossible with the 15% signing bonus. You can make it work by using non-guarantees instead of team options, and allocating some guaranteed salary into that final year (20% does the trick in these cases). So the offer for exactly 60M/5 years would be more like:

                  11.59M + 2.14M = 13.73M
                  10.72M + 2.14M = 12.86M
                  9.85M + 2.14M = 12.10M
                  8.98M + 2.14M = 11.23M
                  9.85M (1.97M guaranteed) + 0.43M = 10.28M (2.40M guaranteed)
                  Total 60M, 52.1M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

                  Same goes for deal 2. For a 5 year, 56M deal, needs to be:

                  10.82M + 2M = 12.92M
                  10.01M + 2M = 12.11M
                  9.20M + 2M = 11.30M
                  8.38M + 2M = 10.48M
                  9.20M (1.84M guaranteed) + 0.4M = 9.60M (2.24M guaranteed)
                  Total 56M, 48.6M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

                  Final deal, same idea. For a total of 52M over 5 years:

                  10.05M + 1.86M = 11.90M
                  9.29M + 1.86M = 11.15M
                  8.54M + 1.86M = 10.40M
                  7.79M + 1.86M = 9.64M
                  8.54M (1.71M guaranteed) + 0.37M = 8.91M (2.08M guaranteed)
                  Total 52M, 45.2M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

                  I agree that the 3rd deal is best. Lowry might not go for it though, and even the 1st deal gives a lot of leeway in that final year, even with a couple million in guaranteed salary.
                  Thanks for clearing that up. I was wondering how that would work since the base did not follow the 7.5% after the signing bonus was taken into account.

                  Either way, having a small amount of guaranteed salary in the 5th year in order to make the option work is not a problem, and the front loaded still allows us to have more cap room in future years for Val and Ross etc etc...

                  Comment


                  • Nilanka wrote: View Post
                    Cathal Kelly (now of the G&M) basically implied that MLSE is willing to drop 3yr, $36 million.

                    No idea what his sources are though....





                    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...ticle18034022/
                    He nailed this one.

                    It would appear to get him to agree to 3 years, Raps had to add 4th year player option.

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