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Thread: Why "selling high" on DeMar doesn't make sense

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    Default Why "selling high" on DeMar doesn't make sense

    Many of the anti-DeMar posters on this board (sorry that's an aggressive term, but I can't think of a better one unfortunately) are willing to deal him if it means a lottery pick coming back our way.

    The following graph illustrates why it does not make sense to trade DeRozan unless you are getting a top 3-5 pick back.


    http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/20...ry-draft-picks

    That graph shows the percentage of lottery picks at each slot (#1-#14) that make the all-star team at least ONCE in their careers. As you can see, if DeMar is traded for a pick outside the top 5, we're trading him for on average a 16% chance of getting a player who will eventually see an all-star game.

    Does this make any logical sense? No it doesn't. It's a huge gamble, with an 84% chance of biting us in the ass. That's why I always say no to these trades that I see where we trade DeMar for the 7th pick (10% chance of all-star, see McHappy's thread), or the Cavs pick (9th) or whatever.



    I guess some of you are saying now, "B-b-b-but that player could be better than DeMar!!!" Sure... they could, but the above graph shows us that a player drafted 6-10 has a like a 2% chance of being a HOFer (which imo, if you go a tier above DeMar, you get players that will be in the Hall when they retire). So that's pretty much a dud.

    Trading DeMar for anything that's not a top 5 pick is borderline foolish... wait no it ACTUALLY IS foolish and I really hope Masai doesn't do it unless some dream scenario happens where Wiggins slips out of the top 5 and even then I'd be hesitant. I'm not a fanboy and neither are other DeMar supporters who share this view. It doesn't make any statistical or logical sense.

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    Love the stats. Honestly, I just don't want DeMar to go because I know he has so much more to offer to this franchise.

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    Generally a terrible idea to trade away a young and improving all-star who wants to play for your team. Especially when you historically have trouble luring top talent.
    You can find me on Twitter.

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    First, many of the most pro-trade DeRozan posters have always maintained that a trade should only happen if there is an extremely high likelihood of a top-tier talent coming back, be it prospects, picks, or a combination thereof. I could potentially support trading DeRozan, but only for a king's ransom, as the OP outlined.

    Second, the OP is only including half the story of a potential DeRozan trade. There will likely be salary coming back in a trade, meaning the player(s) acquired would have to factor into the overall equation. Even if a trade is made with a team able to add DeRozan without sending out any salary, there's still the opportunity cost to consider; ie: what player(s) will be acquired with the cap space previously spent on DeRozan? Free agent(s) could be signed and/or subsequent trade(s) could be made, using the $9.5M cap space. Again, the net transactions and resulting roster moves would have be factored in, when comparing DeRozan to "x".

    Regardless what side of the DeRozan debate, or DeRozan love-spectrum you fall on, the fact that DeRozan has great value around the league has never been questioned. I trust MU and trust that should he entertain the possibility of trading DeRozan, he will absolutely maximize the return, even if it takes time to fully evaluate the net return.

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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    First, many of the most pro-trade DeRozan posters have always maintained that a trade should only happen if there is an extremely high likelihood of a top-tier talent coming back, be it prospects, picks, or a combination thereof. I could potentially support trading DeRozan, but only for a king's ransom, as the OP outlined.

    Second, the OP is only including half the story of a potential DeRozan trade. There will likely be salary coming back in a trade, meaning the player(s) acquired would have to factor into the overall equation. Even if a trade is made with a team able to add DeRozan without sending out any salary, there's still the opportunity cost to consider; ie: what player(s) will be acquired with the cap space previously spent on DeRozan? Free agent(s) could be signed and/or subsequent trade(s) could be made, using the $9.5M cap space. Again, the net transactions and resulting roster moves would have be factored in, when comparing DeRozan to "x".

    Regardless what side of the DeRozan debate, or DeRozan love-spectrum you fall on, the fact that DeRozan has great value around the league has never been questioned. I trust MU and trust that should he entertain the possibility of trading DeRozan, he will absolutely maximize the return, even if it takes time to fully evaluate the net return.
    Well aware of this, but the importance of it is negligible. If you're trading DeRozan for a top prospect, that's a long-term move. Unless you get a LeBron or Durant, that player usually won't establish himself as a superstar until his 3rd season or so, at which point you have to extend their contract anyway... likely for more than what DeMar is currently making.

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    Keep Demar.

    After this taste of play offs I really really really really do not want to go back to rebuilding again.

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    Who in the world wants to get rid of Demar? He loves Toronto, he's already the Raps best player by far, just made the all star team and is improving, and on a very reasonable contract.
    Unless the other delusional posters are right and some fool wants to trade us Paul George for him.

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    This DeMar trading argument really does just move from topic to topic.

    If there's a godfather offer out there for him (Durant in a perfect world) take it. Otherwise keep him.

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    Quote Wiggins wrote: View Post
    Who in the world wants to get rid of Demar? He loves Toronto, he's already the Raps best player by far, just made the all star team and is improving, and on a very reasonable contract.
    Unless the other delusional posters are right and some fool wants to trade us Paul George for him.
    I'm not sure anyone wants to "get rid of him" ... nor do I believe anyone to be delusional; those who have floated the idea of trading Demar, usually preface it by saying "he's our most valuable trade asset", "bring back elite talent", "top tier prospect" etc. ... not exactly a slight. Demar has value, and therefore it's only natural to explore what that value might be. I think people in the US are starting the see that in these playoffs.

    To the OP, I completely agree that what we have in Demar is already better than what most could/would have hoped for, and should not be given up for just any package. The thing I'm surprised wasn't raised in all of this, is that people have been saying to "sell high" on him for years... and he keeps getting "higher". A player who continues to raise his 'ceiling' obviously has tremendous value.
    Last edited by Joey; Tue Apr 29th, 2014 at 06:55 PM.
    In Masai we Trust.

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    Looking at averages and stats doesn't work for specific cases.

    Look at DeRozan, look at our current team, look at the possible return (ex. Wiggins, Smart, Exum, etc.) then decide if that ONE scenario works.

    Statistics work to explain all scenarios, not every scenario.

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    I don't understand why ud trade DD now. Why not keep the team as competitive as possible and go after one of these 'top tier' players when u actually know thy are top tier. What's the point in rushing to develop a guy when we have enough guys were developing as it is.

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    Quote Joey wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure anyone wants to "get rid of him" ... nor do I believe anyone to be delusional
    Anyone that thinks we can get Paul George for Demar Derozan to me is delusional (having false or unrealistic beliefs or opinions).

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    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    Looking at averages and stats doesn't work for specific cases.

    Look at DeRozan, look at our current team, look at the possible return (ex. Wiggins, Smart, Exum, etc.) then decide if that ONE scenario works.

    Statistics work to explain all scenarios, not every scenario.
    Looking at averages and stats tells you that drafting outside the top 5 in the lottery (6-14) you have an 84% chance of getting a player that is not worth an all-star.

    Now knowing that information, we can APPLY that to our specific case. Is it worth it to trade DeRozan for a top 5 pick? Is it worth it to trade DeRozan for instant cap relief and a 16% chance of getting a player as good and even smaller chance of getting a better one? To me the answer is a clear no.

    You get me a top 5 pick, where the guy has a 50% or so chance of becoming an all-star and my ears open a bit. Otherwise, no thanks, not taking that unnecessary risk.

    We're not OKC where we need to start selling away players to save money.

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    9M a year for Demar seems like a reasonable value to me. That's my primary reason for not trading him. Whatever the offer is would have to be pretty damn good.

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    Quote Wiggins wrote: View Post
    Who in the world wants to get rid of Demar? He loves Toronto, he's already the Raps best player by far, just made the all star team and is improving, and on a very reasonable contract.
    Unless the other delusional posters are right and some fool wants to trade us Paul George for him.
    You spoke something that wasn't venomous hatred about kyle lowry? Well ill be.

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    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    Looking at averages and stats tells you that drafting outside the top 5 in the lottery (6-14) you have an 84% chance of getting a player that is not worth an all-star.

    Now knowing that information, we can APPLY that to our specific case. Is it worth it to trade DeRozan for a top 5 pick? Is it worth it to trade DeRozan for instant cap relief and a 16% chance of getting a player as good and even smaller chance of getting a better one? To me the answer is a clear no.

    You get me a top 5 pick, where the guy has a 50% or so chance of becoming an all-star and my ears open a bit. Otherwise, no thanks, not taking that unnecessary risk.

    We're not OKC where we need to start selling away players to save money.
    No, cause we're not trading A Allstar for A Top 5 Pick. We're trading DeRozan for (for example) Wiggins.

    Now you look at DeRozan, and you look at Wiggins and you decide if that is worth the switch.

    What if the top 5 pick is Lebron, or Wade, or Chris Paul? Does that not affect your assessment of simply mindlessly following statistics?
    What if the All-Star is Jamal Magloire or Mo Williams? You're still going to stand by your overview look at the history of the NBA Draft?

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    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    No, cause we're not trading A Allstar for A Top 5 Pick. We're trading DeRozan for (for example) Wiggins.

    Now you look at DeRozan, and you look at Wiggins and you decide if that is worth the switch.

    What if the top 5 pick is Lebron, or Wade, or Chris Paul? Does that not affect your assessment of simply mindlessly following statistics?
    What if the All-Star is Jamal Magloire or Mo Williams? You're still going to stand by your overview look at the history of the NBA Draft?
    What on earth are you talking about? I don't think you've even read my post correctly.

    I specifically mentioned that if someone like Wiggins were to drop past 5 then sure maybe trade DeRozan for him.

    But I've seen suggestions here of trading DeRozan for Cleveland's pick or Sacramento's pick (not specific players). Why the hell would you trade a proven all-star for a 16% chance of getting the same thing 3-4 years down the road?

    If we can get a top 5 pick for DeMar then sure pull the trigger. The top 5 of this draft seem to be likely all-stars, with the top 3 having superstar potential it appears.

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    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    What on earth are you talking about? I don't think you've even read my post correctly.

    I specifically mentioned that if someone like Wiggins were to drop past 5 then sure maybe trade DeRozan for him.

    But I've seen suggestions here of trading DeRozan for Cleveland's pick or Sacramento's pick (not specific players). Why the hell would you trade a proven all-star for a 16% chance of getting the same thing 3-4 years down the road?

    If we can get a top 5 pick for DeMar then sure pull the trigger. The top 5 of this draft seem to be likely all-stars, with the top 3 having superstar potential it appears.
    Well were not gonna get a Top5 pick for Demar IMO
    So the best thing to do is keep him and see how he develops further
    Than later on if we do get an offer that would be reasonable we do it.
    He's 2 years away from being 2 years away, but his wingspan is already here .

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    Quote MACK11 wrote: View Post
    Well were not gonna get a Top5 pick for Demar IMO
    So the best thing to do is keep him and see how he develops further
    Than later on if we do get an offer that would be reasonable we do it.
    We probably could get one in most years. Probably not this one though.

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    Derozan has established himself as an elite level shooting guard in the NBA. As of this season, he was ranked third, behind Wade(2) and James Harden(1). (Link
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...2013-14-season

    We are all aware of the astounding shallow depth at the 2 guard position in the league today; it is like nothing before. Go back 10 years, and there were dozens of high-impact guards in the league (VC, AI, T Mac, Reggie Miller, Ray Allen, Allen Houston,the list goes on).

    I am trusting MU, because he has proven to me that he can make trades that benefit this team both in the short and long term. (AB trade was more long term, RG22 trade was more short term).

    Derozan is a special case. He has grown here. He is the product of his environment. He is the product of a lacklustre franchise with a reputation of mediocracy and softness. Through all this, he has emerged as an all star and as a leader for this team, which many have already proclaimed to be one of the greatest Raptor teams in the franchise's 19 year tenure.

    Now, unless we can bring in someone who has any potential to have the same meaning, value, and impact to this city and to this team, then by all means such situations should be considered. MU has the opportunity to rake in a lot of assets/ a star player with Derozan, but it should not come at anything less than that. We do not need to have another Damon Stoudamire/ Tracy McGrady/ Vince Carter/ Chris Bosh situation, in which one of the best players of a young team is either traded or walks away, leaving us with nothing. In other words, Sell very high.

    Otherwise, forget about it. We have the 3rd best SG in the league on a viable contract. I am still a very strong proponent for building this team up even more with Derozan as a key component of the buildup. Derozan and Kevin Love, or Derozan and Kevin Durant are both great combinations.
    “You can sink and drown, or you can float, and we out here like Michael Phelps."


    Demar Derozan

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