Page 2 of 7 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 140

Thread: Why "selling high" on DeMar doesn't make sense

  1. #21
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    1,310
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Joey wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure anyone wants to "get rid of him" ... nor do I believe anyone to be delusional; those who have floated the idea of trading Demar, usually preface it by saying "he's our most valuable trade asset", "bring back elite talent", "top tier prospect" etc. ... not exactly a slight. Demar has value, and therefore it's only natural to explore what that value might be. I think people in the US are starting the see that in these playoffs.

    To the OP, I completely agree that what we have in Demar is already better than what most could/would have hoped for, and should not be given up for just any package. The thing I'm surprised wasn't raised in all of this, is that people have been saying to "sell high" on him for years... and he keeps getting "higher". A player who continues to raise his 'ceiling' obviously has tremendous value.
    Could've mentioned this as well, you're 100% right. Haven't been at RR that long, but on other forums I've seen people wanting to trade the guy for expirings as recently as last season, or package him with Andrea to get rid of Bargs' (and his) contract.

  2. #22
    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Toronto
    Posts
    2,950
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    What on earth are you talking about? I don't think you've even read my post correctly.

    I specifically mentioned that if someone like Wiggins were to drop past 5 then sure maybe trade DeRozan for him.

    But I've seen suggestions here of trading DeRozan for Cleveland's pick or Sacramento's pick (not specific players). Why the hell would you trade a proven all-star for a 16% chance of getting the same thing 3-4 years down the road?

    If we can get a top 5 pick for DeMar then sure pull the trigger. The top 5 of this draft seem to be likely all-stars, with the top 3 having superstar potential it appears.
    You kind of just disproved your own point. so if wiggins drops past five, wouldn't he statistically have a supremely low chance of ever becoming an all star then? Why does your chart all of a sudden not apply? Oh right, because looking at specific cases makes more sense rather than a super broad and undetailed chart telling us the obvious (top picks are generally better than late picks! No way!)

    Demar was drafted 9th. If we listen to this chart, we should have traded him right away because statistically he should have turned out to be nothing but a role player.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  3. Like OldSkoolCool, mcHAPPY, Letter N, 007 liked this post
  4. #23
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    1,116
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote YoungGunRaptor wrote: View Post
    We are all aware of the astounding shallow depth at the 2 guard position in the league today; it is like nothing before.
    Mostly because the difference between "shooting guard" and "small forward" is at this point negligible, much in the way that power forwards and centers have become much more alike. Paul George began as a shooting guard, was perfectly good at it, and got moved to small forward because Danny Granger was injured and Lance Stephenson slightly faster.

    The appropriate comparison for DeMar is not "shooting guards" - it is "wings." Because that's what he is. He's certainly an well-above-average wing, but this playoff series is exposing him because even though he's playing decent defense he simply can't guard Joe Johnson - he doesn't have the lateral quickness to be an elite wing on defense. Plus there's the issue of his handles, which are not great.

  5. Like FoxMachine liked this post
  6. #24
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,325
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    Well aware of this, but the importance of it is negligible. If you're trading DeRozan for a top prospect, that's a long-term move. Unless you get a LeBron or Durant, that player usually won't establish himself as a superstar until his 3rd season or so, at which point you have to extend their contract anyway... likely for more than what DeMar is currently making.
    You missed my point. Even if the trade was simply DeRozan for a top-5 pick, the net effect would actually be DeRozan for a top-5 pick and whatever player(s) was signed/traded for with the $9.5M cap space previously used to pay DeRozan.

  7. #25
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    65
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    DD is good value for his contract. If he makes strides on his D and handles, he's a long-term keeper. Don't see MU making any DD moves to secure a higher draft pick. It takes time and money to develop talent. I watch a lot of college bball and while Wiggins has a lot of upside, there were many times where he played like a freshmen and not the dominant presence that the media, TSN was hyping.
    Last edited by ps77; Wed Apr 30th, 2014 at 01:50 AM.

  8. #26
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    1,310
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    You missed my point. Even if the trade was simply DeRozan for a top-5 pick, the net effect would actually be DeRozan for a top-5 pick and whatever player(s) was signed/traded for with the $9.5M cap space previously used to pay DeRozan.
    Didn't miss your point at all, it just doesn't matter.

  9. #27
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    1,310
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    You kind of just disproved your own point. so if wiggins drops past five, wouldn't he statistically have a supremely low chance of ever becoming an all star then? Why does your chart all of a sudden not apply? Oh right, because looking at specific cases makes more sense rather than a super broad and undetailed chart telling us the obvious (top picks are generally better than late picks! No way!)

    Demar was drafted 9th. If we listen to this chart, we should have traded him right away because statistically he should have turned out to be nothing but a role player.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Wiggins isn't going to drop past 5 so it doesn't really matter.

    I haven't disproved anything, you've just misunderstood. The point is that trading DeRozan for any pick that isn't in the top 5 does not making any logical or statistical sense.

  10. #28
    Raptors Republic Rookie dzoni71's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    103
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    The trade DD question cannot be answered without knowing the following:
    1. Are we re-signing Kyle, 2-Pat, and Vasquez?
    2. Who do we draft?
    3. What is our cap flexibility?
    4. How realistically can we compete for NBA championship in the next 3 years with the roster we assemble this off-season?

    If there is enough evidence we can take the next step after this season, then you can easily answer NO, we are not trading DD. If MU (and that's his job, that's why he is being paid 7 figures) thinks we cannot compete, then he can entertain offers for DD, but only those that he feels can put us in competition in the future.

    Any way you look at it, there is no clear-cut answer to the question of trading a player or not in the situation the Raptors are now. They are clearly not in rebuild mode, but also not good enough to compete for the ring. I personally think it is not likely we get an offer that would be worth our while, but there are only 2 players in this league that are untradeable and they are LBJ and KD.

  11. #29
    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    1,315
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    We should also know: is Casey coming back?

    For me, that's the most important question regarding roster moves. This is especially true when you consider the fact that MU likes to tailor the roster to fit the coach. How would Demar fit with a new coach and style if that is to happen?

    And as others have mentioned, and I'll echo again, if Demar were to be moved would we actually be selling high? IMO, we wouldn't as I believe he still has much room to grow and I also believe that he will realize that potential as long as he plays on a winning team.

  12. Like OldSkoolCool liked this post
  13. #30
    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    1,887
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    Wiggins isn't going to drop past 5 so it doesn't really matter.

    I haven't disproved anything, you've just misunderstood. The point is that trading DeRozan for any pick that isn't in the top 5 does not making any logical or statistical sense.
    Is there anyone here who'd like to see Demar traded for a pick lower than 5? If so, which player would you be targeting?

    Personally, I think this trade would be foolish because I think Demar's stock has risen to the point where you could get a top 5 for him. Possibly even a top 3, depending on which team you were negotiating with.

  14. #31
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    3,429
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    The math in the OP makes sense to me as well... but I think it comes down to scouting. Some drafts are weak. So even a top 3 pick from 2013 wouldn't have been worth it (although I like Oladipo and I could see him one day being better than DD). If this draft coming up is expected to be strong than it's also possible that there could be guys after the top 5 that would end up as all-stars as well.

    The key is I believe in MU and Weltman and their scouting abilities. If they believe that a guy drafted after #5 has better value than DD than I wouldn't question that trade/decision.

    I do think a Holiday type offer is what MU would want anyway.. basically a high pick in one draft and another lottery pick in another draft. May not get two all-stars from those picks but could get two really good players who's sum is greater than what DD can bring to the table.

  15. #32
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,980
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    The math in the OP makes sense to me as well... but I think it comes down to scouting. Some drafts are weak. So even a top 3 pick from 2013 wouldn't have been worth it (although I like Oladipo and I could see him one day being better than DD). If this draft coming up is expected to be strong than it's also possible that there could be guys after the top 5 that would end up as all-stars as well.

    The key is I believe in MU and Weltman and their scouting abilities. If they believe that a guy drafted after #5 has better value than DD than I wouldn't question that trade/decision.

    I do think a Holiday type offer is what MU would want anyway.. basically a high pick in one draft and another lottery pick in another draft. May not get two all-stars from those picks but could get two really good players who's sum is greater than what DD can bring to the table.
    good post

    just to point out though - part of the value of the Holiday trade was in allowing Philly to tank on a super hyped draft. they probably preferred that Noel be out this year.

  16. #33
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,325
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    Didn't miss your point at all, it just doesn't matter.
    Absolutely it does. You're evaluating a potential trade in a vacuum, in the moment, when any trade involving draft picks is likely to be a 'better now' VS 'better later' type deal. If the $9.5M (minus the salary of the draft pick) is then used to sign a good free agent or helps facilitate a trade to acquire another good asset, then those subsequent moves would definitely have to be factored into the evaluation of the DeRozan trade. Even if the trade itself might make the team worse in the short-term, the subsequent moves could very well address the short-term gap, resulting in the trade becoming that much better when both short and long-term are considered.

  17. #34
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,980
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Absolutely it does. You're evaluating a potential trade in a vacuum, in the moment, when any trade involving draft picks is likely to be a 'better now' VS 'better later' type deal. If the $9.5M (minus the salary of the draft pick) is then used to sign a good free agent or helps facilitate a trade to acquire another good asset, then those subsequent moves would definitely have to be factored into the evaluation of the DeRozan trade. Even if the trade itself might make the team worse in the short-term, the subsequent moves could very well address the short-term gap, resulting in the trade becoming that much better when both short and long-term are considered.
    Most people on these boards have come around to thinking that DD's contract is actually pretty good though. If that is the case, then shedding said contract isn't really a positive. It's possible we homerun that 9.5 mill, but then shouldn't we have found that money somewhere else?

    On another note: isn't DD's attitude worth something beyond his on-court numbers? Having a hard-working humble leader helps spread those values through the locker room, and I think that's really, really important. For a long time (like years and years) my biggest gripe with the Raptors was that we weren't a franchise conducive to helping guys reach their potential. I'm so happy that we can get young players and actually think, "hey, we've got a decent shot at helping these guys get better".

  18. Like golden liked this post
  19. #35
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,325
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    Most people on these boards have come around to thinking that DD's contract is actually pretty good though. If that is the case, then shedding said contract isn't really a positive. It's possible we homerun that 9.5 mill, but then shouldn't we have found that money somewhere else?

    On another note: isn't DD's attitude worth something beyond his on-court numbers? Having a hard-working humble leader helps spread those values through the locker room, and I think that's really, really important. For a long time (like years and years) my biggest gripe with the Raptors was that we weren't a franchise conducive to helping guys reach their potential. I'm so happy that we can get young players and actually think, "hey, we've got a decent shot at helping these guys get better".
    The motivation behind such a trade isn't dumping his contract. The original message was that even if DeRozan were traded straight-up for a top-5 pick, it would likely take time for the prospect to acclimate, resulting in the Raptors being a worse team in the short-term. My point was that such a trade shouldn't be evaluated solely on the deal itself, but also by any subsequent signings/trades that occur as a direct result of the DeRozan trade (ie: using the cap space created to sign another player).

  20. Like stooley liked this post
  21. #36
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,980
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    The motivation behind such a trade isn't dumping his contract. The original message was that even if DeRozan were traded straight-up for a top-5 pick, it would likely take time for the prospect to acclimate, resulting in the Raptors being a worse team in the short-term. My point was that such a trade shouldn't be evaluated solely on the deal itself, but also by any subsequent signings/trades that occur as a direct result of the DeRozan trade (ie: using the cap space created to sign another player).
    Ah, I see. That makes sense.

  22. #37
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Ottawa
    Posts
    21
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Here's the thing: If you don't trade Demar you have a 100% chance of getting an all-star. HE IS AN ALLSTAR. Jebuz!

  23. Like JawsGT, Joey liked this post
  24. #38
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    19,625
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote RYE wrote: View Post
    Here's the thing: If you don't trade Demar you have a 100% chance of getting an all-star. HE IS AN ALLSTAR. Jebuz!
    Will he be a perennial all-star?

    Or is he a one trick wonder like Magloire?

    Would he have been an all star had Derrick Rose or Brook Lopez or Al Horford or Rajon Rondo been healthy?


    This is hits at the heart of the thread, regardless of which side you fall on: selling high
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  25. #39
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Toronto
    Posts
    7,779
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    Will he be a perennial all-star?

    Or is he a one trick wonder like Magloire?

    Would he have been an all star had Derrick Rose or Brook Lopez or Al Horford or Rajon Rondo been healthy?

    This is hits at the heart of the thread, regardless of which side you fall on: selling high
    Suppose one could call Antonio Davis a one trick wonder as well then...
    Regardless, Demar is an All-Star now. Not sure why anyone would try and take that away from him, or apply an "asterisk" to his participating.

    And the fact that Demar is able to stay healthy is just another valuable trait he possesses.
    And to be honest, I don't see Rose, Lopez or Horford earning another All-Star bid again.

    I fully expect Demar to be an All-Star again next year.
    In Masai we Trust.

  26. Like RYE liked this post
  27. #40
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    1,310
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    That graph in my post is for ONE all star appearance mchappy so your point is sort of irrelevant. If we trade DeMar for a non top 5 lotto pick we have a 16% chance of getting a player that will EVER play in the all star game

  28. Like RYE liked this post
Page 2 of 7 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 ... LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •