Many of the anti-DeMar posters on this board (sorry that's an aggressive term, but I can't think of a better one unfortunately) are willing to deal him if it means a lottery pick coming back our way.
The following graph illustrates why it does not make sense to trade DeRozan unless you are getting a top 3-5 pick back.
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/20...ry-draft-picks
That graph shows the percentage of lottery picks at each slot (#1-#14) that make the all-star team at least ONCE in their careers. As you can see, if DeMar is traded for a pick outside the top 5, we're trading him for on average a 16% chance of getting a player who will eventually see an all-star game.
Does this make any logical sense? No it doesn't. It's a huge gamble, with an 84% chance of biting us in the ass. That's why I always say no to these trades that I see where we trade DeMar for the 7th pick (10% chance of all-star, see McHappy's thread), or the Cavs pick (9th) or whatever.
I guess some of you are saying now, "B-b-b-but that player could be better than DeMar!!!" Sure... they could, but the above graph shows us that a player drafted 6-10 has a like a 2% chance of being a HOFer (which imo, if you go a tier above DeMar, you get players that will be in the Hall when they retire). So that's pretty much a dud.
Trading DeMar for anything that's not a top 5 pick is borderline foolish... wait no it ACTUALLY IS foolish and I really hope Masai doesn't do it unless some dream scenario happens where Wiggins slips out of the top 5 and even then I'd be hesitant. I'm not a fanboy and neither are other DeMar supporters who share this view. It doesn't make any statistical or logical sense.
The following graph illustrates why it does not make sense to trade DeRozan unless you are getting a top 3-5 pick back.
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/20...ry-draft-picks
That graph shows the percentage of lottery picks at each slot (#1-#14) that make the all-star team at least ONCE in their careers. As you can see, if DeMar is traded for a pick outside the top 5, we're trading him for on average a 16% chance of getting a player who will eventually see an all-star game.
Does this make any logical sense? No it doesn't. It's a huge gamble, with an 84% chance of biting us in the ass. That's why I always say no to these trades that I see where we trade DeMar for the 7th pick (10% chance of all-star, see McHappy's thread), or the Cavs pick (9th) or whatever.
I guess some of you are saying now, "B-b-b-but that player could be better than DeMar!!!" Sure... they could, but the above graph shows us that a player drafted 6-10 has a like a 2% chance of being a HOFer (which imo, if you go a tier above DeMar, you get players that will be in the Hall when they retire). So that's pretty much a dud.
Trading DeMar for anything that's not a top 5 pick is borderline foolish... wait no it ACTUALLY IS foolish and I really hope Masai doesn't do it unless some dream scenario happens where Wiggins slips out of the top 5 and even then I'd be hesitant. I'm not a fanboy and neither are other DeMar supporters who share this view. It doesn't make any statistical or logical sense.
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