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Thread: Off-Season Realistic Expectations / Predictions / probably devolve dream acquisitions

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    Raptors Republic Starter Raptor Jesus's Avatar
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    Default Off-Season Realistic Expectations / Predictions / probably devolve dream acquisitions

    The talk of history repeating itself, a great thread and reminder for old head Raptors fans got me thinking.

    Much like Grange elucidates in this piece the Raptors are in somewhat familiar territory. On the crust of a surprise spicy pizza, delivered prepaid and pre-tipped.

    We face an off-season much like those(00'01 & 06'07) where Messiah Ujiri's contemporaries have over paid minor talents. Riding crests of fan adulation with teams that never managed to sustain, let alone, build on those results.

    In that vein, I ask what is your realistic expectations of this off-season?

    And offer Mine:
    Lowry under 12 million for 3years and 10 million for 4years
    Vasquez under 3.5 mill for 3yrs
    Patterson under 5 mill for 4yrs

    Canary in the Fields mineshaft:
    Thabo Sefolosha at/under MLE or if somehow possible S&T to OKC (I'll offer the expiring Fields contract, their 2nd rounder and our 2nd rounder.)
    Bringing in Thabo would signal that the training staff doesn't think Fields can comeback from his litany of medical issues to the level he was, and thus should be considered cap relief and no more.

    Otherwise I look to 14'15 Off-season for a veteran presence and/or impact player.

    Finally, for whomever falls to our First Pick to make waves in Summer League and push the players in front of them on the depth chart in camp.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    If i save this spot in the thread, can we have someone who knows caps post a little summary of our cap situation for this year here (have a mod move it here).

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    2014-15:

    DeMar DeRozan $9,500,000
    John Salmons $7,000,000 (1 M guar until June 30th)
    Amir Johnson $7,000,000 (5 M guar)
    Landry Fields $6,250,000
    Chuck Hayes $5,958,750
    Steve Novak $3,445,947
    Jonas Valanciunas $3,678,360
    Tyler Hansbrough $3,326,235 (1 M guaranteed until June 29th)
    Terrence Ross $2,793,960
    Julyan Stone $948,163 (unguaranteed until 7th July)
    Dwight Buycks $816,482 (unguaranteed until 22nd July)
    Marcus Camby $646,609 (buyout)

    Kyle Lowry $9,315,000 (cap hold)
    Patrick Patterson $7,763,253 (cap hold; $4,319,474 QO)
    Greivis Vasquez $5,375,470 (cap hold; $3,203,780 QO)
    Nando de Colo $1,901,900 (cap hold; $1,828,750 QO)

    20th pick $1,215,300 (cap hold)

    Above roster, with all free agents released and TH, Stone, Salmons and Buycks waived: $44,518,270

    With all cap holds, no waived players well over cap (76M range).

    Estimated:
    Cap: 63.2 M (as high as 62.9 by recent estimates)
    Tax: 77.0 M
    Apron/Hard Cap: 81.0 M

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Jclaw's Avatar
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    Just heard butch carter on tim&sid. He mentioned (and he's not the first) that the raps need a "shot blocker". This seems to be a common idea. But then what is our 7ft (ish) Lithuanian for? I understand he didn't excel at it this year but isn't that part of his development? Are people imaging more of a 4 that can block shots? Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

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    I noticed that Thabo didnt play much in the series vs memphis, although he has got more time this series
    Do you think the staff might not be as happy with him anymore? Think he would actually consider signing somewhere else?

    I know money talks, but so does playing with Durant....

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Quote Jclaw wrote: View Post
    Just heard butch carter on tim&sid. He mentioned (and he's not the first) that the raps need a "shot blocker". This seems to be a common idea. But then what is our 7ft (ish) Lithuanian for? I understand he didn't excel at it this year but isn't that part of his development? Are people imaging more of a 4 that can block shots? Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
    Meh. There have been enough great teams without a dominant shot-blocker that we know it isn't a necessity.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Ideal off-season for me:

    Resign Kyle Lowry, 4 years, 44 million - 1.7M higher than his cap hold
    Resign Greivis Vasquez, 3 years, 12 million - 1.4M lower than his cap hold
    Resign Patrick Patterson, 4 years, 20 million - 2.7M lower than his cap hold

    Draft a big SF with emphasis on defense (Jerami Grant? someone like him? since apparently he'll never learn to shoot)
    Draft a PF/C with our early 2nd rounder to replace TH/sub for JV sometimes.

    Release Buycks, Stone, Salmons and TH.

    This all leaves us with 64.5M on the books (I think right? 20M of new salary in resigning FAs).

    So we don't really have any room to work with there.

    Ideally somehow we wiggle out of some money, sign Carter to 2 years, 6M.

    Then trade Novak? De Colo? or both or some combination of crappiness to get a Bismark Biyombo type.

    Opening day roster:

    Starters:
    Kyle Lowry
    Demar Derozan
    Terrence Ross
    Amir Johnson
    Jonas Valanciunas

    Bench:
    Greivis Vasquez
    Vince Carter
    rookie SF
    Patrick Patterson
    Bismark Biyombo/early 2nd rounder
    Landry Fields
    Steve Novak
    Chuck Hayes

    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    Meh. There have been enough great teams without a dominant shot-blocker that we know it isn't a necessity.
    Not an elite guy, off the bench behind JV. He can play in TH/CH minutes.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote Jclaw wrote: View Post
    Just heard butch carter on tim&sid. He mentioned (and he's not the first) that the raps need a "shot blocker". This seems to be a common idea. But then what is our 7ft (ish) Lithuanian for? I understand he didn't excel at it this year but isn't that part of his development? Are people imaging more of a 4 that can block shots? Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
    We'll see what happens with Jonas. He clearly regressed in this area this season. I wonder if the conditioning issues played a part. His per36 bpg went from 1.9 to 1.1....that's almost cut in half.

    We'll see if he can get some pop back, and also should expect this to improve regardless even just a bit from improved D we hope to see as he develops.

    It would be nice to add a backup with size/length though who have an impact protecting the rim.

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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    Ideally somehow we wiggle out of some money, sign Carter to 2 years, 6M.
    Since we didn't use cap space (all free agent signings through Bird rights), we would retain the MLE and could use part of that to sign Vince if you want to.

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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    We'll see what happens with Jonas. He clearly regressed in this area this season. I wonder if the conditioning issues played a part. His per36 bpg went from 1.9 to 1.1....that's almost cut in half.

    We'll see if he can get some pop back, and also should expect this to improve regardless even just a bit from improved D we hope to see as he develops.

    It would be nice to add a backup with size/length though who have an impact protecting the rim.
    The coaching staff emphasized to Jonas that blocking shots was not a priority - challenging shots and not fouling was. Rule of verticality and all that. I think it was a directive, rather than a regression.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    The coaching staff emphasized to Jonas that blocking shots was not a priority - challenging shots and not fouling was. Rule of verticality and all that. I think it was a directive, rather than a regression.
    That's part of it. But I thought it also became clear he just wasn't getting to spots/getting up fast enough to get blocks he was getting last year. I mean, I loved what he brought as a blocker last year. He showed the ability to block with both hands, and he showed good awareness in keeping blocks inbounds often helping to initiate a break. Would love to get some of that back.

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  13. #12
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    Ideal off-season for me:

    Resign Kyle Lowry, 4 years, 44 million - 1.7M higher than his cap hold
    Resign Greivis Vasquez, 3 years, 12 million - 1.4M lower than his cap hold
    Resign Patrick Patterson, 4 years, 20 million - 2.7M lower than his cap hold

    Draft a big SF with emphasis on defense (Jerami Grant? someone like him? since apparently he'll never learn to shoot)
    Draft a PF/C with our early 2nd rounder to replace TH/sub for JV sometimes.

    Release Buycks, Stone, Salmons and TH.

    This all leaves us with 64.5M on the books (I think right? 20M of new salary in resigning FAs).

    So we don't really have any room to work with there.

    Ideally somehow we wiggle out of some money, sign Carter to 2 years, 6M.

    Then trade Novak? De Colo? or both or some combination of crappiness to get a Bismark Biyombo type.

    Opening day roster:

    Starters:
    Kyle Lowry
    Demar Derozan
    Terrence Ross
    Amir Johnson
    Jonas Valanciunas

    Bench:
    Greivis Vasquez
    Vince Carter
    rookie SF
    Patrick Patterson
    Bismark Biyombo/early 2nd rounder
    Landry Fields
    Steve Novak
    Chuck Hayes



    Not an elite guy, off the bench behind JV. He can play in TH/CH minutes.
    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Since we didn't use cap space (all free agent signings through Bird rights), we would retain the MLE and could use part of that to sign Vince if you want to.
    So if we do that we're on the books for 67.5M this year. And assuming no backloading or funky contract management, next year we have coming off the books:

    Landry Fields - 6.2M
    Chuck Hayes - 6M
    Camby - 0.65M
    Amir - 7M
    Salmons/TH buyouts - 2M

    For a total of 21.85M. Assuming the cap increases by a little again (to 64M, 63.5M?), we're left with 45.6M on the books, and about 18M in capspace. Is that enough to sign a max player? Is that enough to sign a max player and fill out some holes?

    If we clear off Novak somehow, I think that really opens up some options for the summer of 2015.
    Last edited by stooley; Thu May 8th, 2014 at 02:28 PM.

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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    So if we do that we're on the books for 67.5M this year. And assuming no backloading or funky contract management, next year we have coming off the books:

    Landry Fields - 6.2M
    Chuck Hayes - 6M
    Camby - 0.65M
    Amir - 7M
    Salmons/TH buyouts - 2M

    For a total of 21.85M. Assuming the cap increases by a little again (to 64M, 63.5M?), we're left with 45.6M on the books, and about 18M in capspace. Is that enough to sign a max player? Is that enough to sign a max player and fill out some holes?

    If we clear off Novak somehow, I think that really opens up some options.
    Well, a bunch of other players get raises from this coming year to the next one, so no, we're not looking at nearly that much cap space. If we don't sign VC (or we sign him to a 1 year deal), we are looking at closer to 19M in cap space (if Amir doesn't get re-signed). With a MLE deal still on there, you are looking at more like 13.5M in cap room.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Well, a bunch of other players get raises from this coming year to the next one, so no, we're not looking at nearly that much cap space. If we don't sign VC (or we sign him to a 1 year deal), we are looking at closer to 19M in cap space (if Amir doesn't get re-signed). With a MLE deal still on there, you are looking at more like 13.5M in cap room.
    I don't get that part. If Vince is on contract for 2 years, each at 3 mill, we should be looking at 16M then right?

    And if we trade Novak for an expiring, we'd have 19.5M right?

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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Good starting point for Toronto's team salary position, currently and into the future. Note that you can hover over each player to see details about his contract (ie: the dates by which decisions need to be made about Salmons & Hanbrough).

    http://data.shamsports.com/content/p...es/raptors.jsp

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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    I don't get that part. If Vince is on contract for 2 years, each at 3 mill, we should be looking at 16M then right?

    And if we trade Novak for an expiring, we'd have 19.5M right?
    Sorry, yes. Although I doubt we could get him for that.

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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Good starting point for Toronto's team salary position, currently and into the future. Note that you can hover over each player to see details about his contract (ie: the dates by which decisions need to be made about Salmons & Hanbrough).

    http://data.shamsports.com/content/p...es/raptors.jsp
    Sham's the man. That's where I get all my info.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Sham's the man. That's where I get all my info.
    Makes you wonder why the NBA doesn't provide that sort of info, in an official capacity.


    Another good site for people looking for information on the status of future draft picks, including the conditions placed on them:

    http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/dra...rafts/detailed

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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Makes you wonder why the NBA doesn't provide that sort of info, in an official capacity.


    Another good site for people looking for information on the status of future draft picks, including the conditions placed on them:

    http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/dra...rafts/detailed
    should we add useful resources to Q&A thread?

    shot charts/lineup stats: http://vorped.com/bball/

    quarter splits: http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.html?PlayerID=202685

    player-season finder (advanced search, b-ref): http://www.basketball-reference.com/...psl_finder.cgi

    upcoming free agents: http://hoopshype.com/free_agency.htm

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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    should we add useful resources to Q&A thread?

    shot charts/lineup stats: http://vorped.com/bball/

    quarter splits: http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.html?PlayerID=202685

    player-season finder (advanced search, b-ref): http://www.basketball-reference.com/...psl_finder.cgi

    upcoming free agents: http://hoopshype.com/free_agency.htm
    There's actually already a stickied thread designed to do just that!

    http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...Fan-Essentials

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