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Demar for draft pick poll - don't freak out, read first

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  • #76
    DanH wrote: View Post
    I hope everyone is aware that to lure Durant, we will need to let DeMar walk when he opts out that year. DeMar is not a piece to attract Durant with - if DeMar stays, we don't have the cap space for Durant. If he goes, we do. If he stays (say, via extension) and we try to sign and trade for Durant, the conversation will start and end with DeMar going the other way.
    If we trade DeMar for a draft pick and that player is not a star within a season we have a 0% chance of getting Durant.

    2016 Offseason (As things currently stand):

    DeRozan: 14.25M Cap Hold
    Lowry: 11M
    Jonas: 11.65M Cap Hold
    Ross: 8.88M Cap Hold
    2014, 2015, 2016 1st Round Picks (2 in 2016): 5M
    4 Empty Spots Roster Charge: 2.17M
    TOTAL: $52.95M

    I think I included everything. The salary cap in 2016-17 is projected to be around 70M if it continues to increase at the same rate as it will from 14/15 to 15/16 (http://newsok.com/kevin-durant-imagi...rticle/4815024). If anyone has a better estimate link me to it I've been searching for a while.

    With that said, a Durant max deal would start at 21M, so we'd be 4M shy of being able to offer him a max. This could be mediated by signing Val and/or Ross to extensions in the 2015 offseason for less than the value of their 2016 cap holds (which is quite likely, say 6M a year for Ross and 10M for Jonas).

    So yes in theory we could keep Lowry, Ross, Val, DeRozan and our 4 1st round picks over the next 3 drafts and still sign Durant. It would just mean giving guys like Vasquez, Amir and 2Pat 2 year deals or 2 year + team option deals to avoid having that excess salary on the books.

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    • #77
      imanshumpert wrote: View Post
      I would actually argue that DeRozan has higher value than Jrue did. Both were first-time all-stars, but DeRozan was an all-star for a playoff team and a top 3 seed in the conference. Additionally, DeRozan is an all-star at a position that is significantly more difficult to replace with a comparable talent. There are like 3 better shooting guards in the NBA (Wade, Kobe, Harden) and one guy who looks like he's going to be better pretty soon (Beal), whereas virtually every team in the NBA has a solid PG and there are a LOT that are better than Holiday (Lowry, Rose when healthy, Wall, Kyrie, Rondo, Parker, Westbrook, Paul, Lillard, Curry, Conley, Dragic, Lawson).
      DeRozan's value is higher than Jrue's is, but it's worth remembering that Jrue's price ended up being a first-rounder that potentially wasn't going to be lottery (remember, New Orleans intended to compete this year, and they had a bad season injury-wise) and a lottery pick in what everybody more or less admitted in advance was the single weakest draft in a decade. I think a single top-ten pick in this year's draft, which is loaded with potential superstars, stars and impact players, is probably higher value than that or at least equivalent.

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      • #78
        magoon wrote: View Post
        DeRozan's value is higher than Jrue's is, but it's worth remembering that Jrue's price ended up being a first-rounder that potentially wasn't going to be lottery (remember, New Orleans intended to compete this year, and they had a bad season injury-wise) and a lottery pick in what everybody more or less admitted in advance was the single weakest draft in a decade. I think a single top-ten pick in this year's draft, which is loaded with potential superstars, stars and impact players, is probably higher value than that or at least equivalent.
        Now, for sure.

        But at the time of the trade at last year's draft? Holiday was an all-star PG with tremendous physical tools and just 23. He was also locked up for 4 years compared to just 2 guaranteed for DD.

        I don't agree but I certainly hope you are correct!

        Comment


        • #79
          imanshumpert wrote: View Post
          If we trade DeMar for a draft pick and that player is not a star within a season we have a 0% chance of getting Durant.

          2016 Offseason (As things currently stand):

          DeRozan: 14.25M Cap Hold
          Lowry: 11M
          Jonas: 11.65M Cap Hold
          Ross: 8.88M Cap Hold
          2014, 2015, 2016 1st Round Picks (2 in 2016): 5M
          4 Empty Spots Roster Charge: 2.17M
          TOTAL: $52.95M

          I think I included everything. The salary cap in 2016-17 is projected to be around 70M if it continues to increase at the same rate as it will from 14/15 to 15/16 (http://newsok.com/kevin-durant-imagi...rticle/4815024). If anyone has a better estimate link me to it I've been searching for a while.

          With that said, a Durant max deal would start at 21M, so we'd be 4M shy of being able to offer him a max. This could be mediated by signing Val and/or Ross to extensions in the 2015 offseason for less than the value of their 2016 cap holds (which is quite likely, say 6M a year for Ross and 10M for Jonas).

          So yes in theory we could keep Lowry, Ross, Val, DeRozan and our 4 1st round picks over the next 3 drafts and still sign Durant. It would just mean giving guys like Vasquez, Amir and 2Pat 2 year deals or 2 year + team option deals to avoid having that excess salary on the books.
          Sure, but then you are attracting Durant to a team with no PF and no backups at any position outside of those draft picks (who would add up to probably closer to 6 or 7M depending on where those picks end up), and considering the most optimistic projection of the cap that year is 69M, your math still doesn't add up, especially considering it will be very hard to sign JV to a 10M contract extension. So absolute best case scenario is looking like 54M committed leaving maybe 15 M in cap room. Durant won't sign for that.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

          Comment


          • #80
            DanH wrote: View Post
            Sure, but then you are attracting Durant to a team with no PF and no backups at any position outside of those draft picks (who would add up to probably closer to 6 or 7M depending on where those picks end up), and considering the most optimistic projection of the cap that year is 69M, your math still doesn't add up, especially considering it will be very hard to sign JV to a 10M contract extension. So absolute best case scenario is looking like 54M committed leaving maybe 15 M in cap room. Durant won't sign for that.
            What? How would the team have no backups with 8 players on the roster pre-Durant. Ideally Ross moves to the bench, and three of our rookies would also be bench players (maybe a backup PG and backup C, idk), maybe one of those 4 picks pans out and becomes a starting caliber PF. The idea here is Ujiri and his staff are supposed to be good at drafting so we should be able to get contributors even if we are in the mid-late teens or even early twenties (see the Spurs, this is how they're able to supplement their team with great role players despite having TD, Parker and Manu on the books for big money a few years ago).

            Actually a cap projection of 69.8M is pretty realistic because it just assumes that the cap is going to increase by the same amount in 2016/17 as in 2015/16.

            The cap situation could also be resolved by simply just letting Ross walk as well... The fact is it's not impossible to get Durant if DeMar is still on this team. That insinuation is false and you're only saying it because you want DeMar gone.

            Comment


            • #81
              imanshumpert wrote: View Post
              What? How would the team have no backups with 8 players on the roster pre-Durant. Ideally Ross moves to the bench, and three of our rookies would also be bench players (maybe a backup PG and backup C, idk), maybe one of those 4 picks pans out and becomes a starting caliber PF. The idea here is Ujiri and his staff are supposed to be good at drafting so we should be able to get contributors even if we are in the mid-late teens or even early twenties (see the Spurs, this is how they're able to supplement their team with great role players despite having TD, Parker and Manu on the books for big money a few years ago).

              Actually a cap projection of 69.8M is pretty realistic because it just assumes that the cap is going to increase by the same amount in 2016/17 as in 2015/16.

              The cap situation could also be resolved by simply just letting Ross walk as well... The fact is it's not impossible to get Durant if DeMar is still on this team. That insinuation is false and you're only saying it because you want DeMar gone.
              Ah, I see, so you want Ross to walk as well, and attract Durant here with just JV, Lowry and DD, and the hope that our 20th pick in one of those years is a starting calibre PF. Delightful.

              Impossibilities don't really exist, but if you want to be pragmatic, you'll see that DD is a big financial impairment to attracting Durant, and is the a) easiest b) most likely and c) least controllable asset to remove from the cap to make room for Durant. I'd personally rather have Ross, GV and Patterson than just DD (and keep in mind, we wouldn't have DD - we'd have a chance at re-signing him in the summer).
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

              Comment


              • #82
                DanH wrote: View Post
                Ah, I see, so you want Ross to walk as well, and attract Durant here with just JV, Lowry and DD, and the hope that our 20th pick in one of those years is a starting calibre PF. Delightful.

                Impossibilities don't really exist, but if you want to be pragmatic, you'll see that DD is a big financial impairment to attracting Durant, and is the a) easiest b) most likely and c) least controllable asset to remove from the cap to make room for Durant. I'd personally rather have Ross, GV and Patterson than just DD (and keep in mind, we wouldn't have DD - we'd have a chance at re-signing him in the summer).
                Looks like DD needs to go then... and right now for a pick. That way we'll be sure of having a shot at KD in 2016.

                Comment


                • #83
                  imanshumpert wrote: View Post
                  Looks like DD needs to go then... and right now for a pick. That way we'll be sure of having a shot at KD in 2016.
                  I don't think there's that many people actually advocating for this trade.

                  It was a hypothetical situation to take place in a vacuum.
                  "Bruno?
                  Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                  He's terrible."

                  -Superjudge, 7/23

                  Hope you're wrong.

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                  • #84
                    CRF and DanH ... I'm curious, at #10, who do you feel we could get that will improve this team over its current state?

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                    • #85
                      depends how far exum would fall
                      @sweatpantsjer

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                      • #86
                        DanH wrote: View Post
                        Ah, I see, so you want Ross to walk as well, and attract Durant here with just JV, Lowry and DD, and the hope that our 20th pick in one of those years is a starting calibre PF. Delightful.

                        Impossibilities don't really exist, but if you want to be pragmatic, you'll see that DD is a big financial impairment to attracting Durant, and is the a) easiest b) most likely and c) least controllable asset to remove from the cap to make room for Durant. I'd personally rather have Ross, GV and Patterson than just DD (and keep in mind, we wouldn't have DD - we'd have a chance at re-signing him in the summer).
                        Also if dd opts out and leaves as UFA, raps have nothing to show.

                        If he opts out then he had a $14m cap hold along with nearly $20m for jv and Ross.

                        If he opts in, makes things interesting.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Joey wrote: View Post
                          CRF and DanH ... I'm curious, at #10, who do you feel we could get that will improve this team over its current state?
                          Long term and at the cost of only DeRozan? Vonleh could be there, Saric, one of Smart or Exum could slip, even Tyler Ennis has a shot to be good long term.

                          But it's not just about the draft. Adding a young piece like that also removes DD's cap hit for 2015 - where we would suddenly have max cap room to drastically improve the team. That's why in my comment I said that if we don't also get the cap relief, I'd want a top 6 pick - wherein we are guaranteed one of Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Exum, Randle, or Vonleh, all of whom I would have higher expectations for than DD long term.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            DanH wrote: View Post
                            Long term and at the cost of only DeRozan? Vonleh could be there, Saric, one of Smart or Exum could slip, even Tyler Ennis has a shot to be good long term.

                            But it's not just about the draft. Adding a young piece like that also removes DD's cap hit for 2015 - where we would suddenly have max cap room to drastically improve the team. That's why in my comment I said that if we don't also get the cap relief, I'd want a top 6 pick - wherein we are guaranteed one of Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Exum, Randle, or Vonleh, all of whom I would have higher expectations for than DD long term.
                            Which max free agent is going to sign here if Lowry and DeRozan are gone?

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              DanH wrote: View Post
                              Ah, I see, so you want Ross to walk as well, and attract Durant here with just JV, Lowry and DD, and the hope that our 20th pick in one of those years is a starting calibre PF. Delightful.

                              Impossibilities don't really exist, but if you want to be pragmatic, you'll see that DD is a big financial impairment to attracting Durant, and is the a) easiest b) most likely and c) least controllable asset to remove from the cap to make room for Durant. I'd personally rather have Ross, GV and Patterson than just DD (and keep in mind, we wouldn't have DD - we'd have a chance at re-signing him in the summer).
                              Do you honestly think Durant would want to play with the players you're listing (Ross and Patterson over DD??)....LOL

                              You need to keep in mind that nowadays stars/superstars want to play with other stars/superstars. Lebron left Cleveland to play with Wade and Bosh. Durant is NOT coming to Toronto if we can't even find a way to keep our only all-star. You're dreaming if you think he would come to play with Ross, JV, Lowry and Patterson.....
                              Last edited by special1; Wed May 14, 2014, 03:07 PM.

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                              • #90
                                imanshumpert wrote: View Post
                                Which max free agent is going to sign here if Lowry and DeRozan are gone?
                                I know i know *puts his hand up*....

                                No max free agent is going to sign here if Lowry and Derozan are gone. Anyone who thinks max players will sign here to play with JV and T Ross are delusional. Without Lowry and Demar we are on the same level as the Bucks and the Sixers IMO.

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