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Thread: At what point does a prospect generated from a pick lose his lustre?

  1. #21
    Raptors Republic Starter TSF's Avatar
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    Whenever an opposing general manager isn't willing to give you extra assets for a player based on their potential.
    @Boymusic66

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    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    It is draft time again.

    Lots of hope and optimism about players and all us arm chair GMs spouting who is the best the draft has to offer at "X" position. What I was wondering is: when does a pick or prospect lose his lustre?
    When you can't trade him for his equivalent or better draft position in an upcoming draft of similar talent depth.

  3. #23
    Raptors Republic Rookie gametime's Avatar
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    When his compete level declines. Popovich often talks about this in combination with "gut" feelings and "heart". You can hit all the "open" shots and have the best "vertical" in the world in empty gyms and uncontested practices. Show me how hard you want to drill those same shots when I'm in your face making your life hell every practice imitating real games scenarios. The more fight you show, the higher the odds you're going to start climbing that depth chart.

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  5. #24
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote TSF wrote: View Post
    Whenever an opposing general manager isn't willing to give you extra assets for a player based on their potential.
    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    When you can't trade him for his equivalent or better draft position in an upcoming draft of similar talent depth.
    Agree with the above, but they are market indicators. For me I use a combination of

    10,000 minutes
    4 years in the NBA
    24+ years old

    When a player reaches 1 of those thresholds the "potential" clock starts running down. When a player passes all three of those thresholds, hopefully the potential has been reached, or at least appears to be on track. Although each player is different and there are obviously exceptions, but the odds of a "leap" or a realization of potential after those three thresholds has been met seems unlikely.

    Bargnani reached those thresholds 3 seasons ago, Derozan reached it this season. By the end of next season, both Derrick Williams and Tristan Thompson will have passed one of the three thresholds.


    All that said, potential is also tied up in expectations. If you were expecting Thompson to be an all-start PF I think that is more a case of mistaken expectations than not realizing potential. I don't think he's ever going to be more that an average starting PF, and it wouldn't be a surprise me if he was maxed out as a back up PF.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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  7. #25
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    Royce White is beginning to lose his lustre for me. I hope he put some money in the bank as he has two young kids.

  8. #26
    Raptors Republic All-Star brothersteve's Avatar
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    I had a nice chat with Colangelo about when a draft picks value starts to drop a few years back & I think he nailed it.

    Draft picks are worth the most before they are used because that player could be anyone the other team could imagine drafting with it and what that hypothetical player could become.

    Once you draft a player, some GMs will like him, some won't. He would fill a need a some teams but not others. He becomes someone you can criticize, has limitations, can't do some stuff, has to be developed and the market for the drafted player is smaller than the draft pick itself as the player becomes real rather someone you can imagine being drafted at that spot.

    In almost every case, a draft pick loses lustre the moment an actual player becomes attached to it - with obvious exceptions like LBJ
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  9. #27
    Raptors Republic Veteran Bendit's Avatar
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    Quote Joey wrote: View Post
    I'd say, for anyone who realizes that AB was facing some pretty extenuating circumstances, he still holds some lustre.

    Also have to keep in mind that Cleveland were the only ones who saw him as a #1 pick. If you are realistic about him, you'd see he can still have a solid career.
    Lol. You know....ironically/coincidentally we have had a painful experience with our very own AB for too long a time...a fellow named Andrea. I wonder if there are any takers for him these days (I am sure the Knickers want to unload him).

    Disclosure: I was hot on for Thomas Robinson, now in Portland and picked 5th by the Kings.Beware of 6'8" PFs who dominate in the paint in college...is all I can offer! It's a crapshoot out there when pro pickers cannot make a decent choice in the top 5 of any draft.

  10. #28
    Raptors Republic Starter TSF's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Agree with the above, but they are market indicators. For me I use a combination of

    10,000 minutes
    4 years in the NBA
    24+ years old

    When a player reaches 1 of those thresholds the "potential" clock starts running down. When a player passes all three of those thresholds, hopefully the potential has been reached, or at least appears to be on track. Although each player is different and there are obviously exceptions, but the odds of a "leap" or a realization of potential after those three thresholds has been met seems unlikely.

    Bargnani reached those thresholds 3 seasons ago, Derozan reached it this season. By the end of next season, both Derrick Williams and Tristan Thompson will have passed one of the three thresholds.


    All that said, potential is also tied up in expectations. If you were expecting Thompson to be an all-start PF I think that is more a case of mistaken expectations than not realizing potential. I don't think he's ever going to be more that an average starting PF, and it wouldn't be a surprise me if he was maxed out as a back up PF.
    And yet we got a 1st rounder out of the knicks based on what Bargs could potentially be. As long as there's one dreaming GM...
    @Boymusic66

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