"Sell High"

[stooley]

Ok, you guys have convinced me. Poor logic and bad thinking on my part.

I think I know where you're coming from though.

I just think your issue with the way it's used is rather how the value of our own players, versus those on other teams, is calculated.

[imanshumpert]

I think I know where you're coming from though.

I just think your issue with the way it's used is rather how the value of our own players, versus those on other teams, is calculated.

Yeah I guess it's a good idea in theory, but doesn't work unless applied correctly.

Like for example, using the concept of "sell high" Lowry should be traded and not retained next season imo. He has ridiculously high value league-wide right now, but is probably only going to be useful to us for 2-3 more seasons (which isn't a championship window imo).

[mcHAPPY]

Yeah I guess it's a good idea in theory, but doesn't work unless applied correctly.

Like for example, using the concept of "sell high" Lowry should be traded and not retained next season imo. He has ridiculously high value league-wide right now, but is probably only going to be useful to us for 2-3 more seasons (which isn't a championship window imo).

Lowry's value takes a hit because of his contract status.

As an unrestricted free agent he can go where he chooses - assuming the team has cap space.

A big part of the extraordinary return on Holiday (besides hindsight with his injury) was his contract ran 4 more seasons.

The Raptors don't really have much leverage with Lowry right now in terms of a trade and trading him before the deadline would have put the new team in the same situation Cleveland finds themselves with Deng and Hawes.... granted neither player 'cost' the Cavs much.

[imanshumpert]

Lowry's value takes a hit because of his contract status.

As an unrestricted free agent he can go where he chooses - assuming the team has cap space.

A big part of the extraordinary return on Holiday (besides hindsight with his injury) was his contract ran 4 more seasons.

The Raptors don't really have much leverage with Lowry right now in terms of a trade and trading him before the deadline would have put the new team in the same situation Cleveland finds themselves with Deng and Hawes.... granted neither player 'cost' the Cavs much.

Ok

[stooley]

Yeah I guess it's a good idea in theory, but doesn't work unless applied correctly.

Like for example, using the concept of "sell high" Lowry should be traded and not retained next season imo. He has ridiculously high value league-wide right now, but is probably only going to be useful to us for 2-3 more seasons (which isn't a championship window imo).

Right, Lowry is actually an interesting case, but since he's a UFA, I think his trade value in a sign and trade is significantly decreased since that team could find other ways to acquire him, otherwise it might not actually be a terrible move.

I most often see the term used in reference to DD to be honest, and I think what that's overlooking is that Derozan has a lot of intangibles which affect not only his future value on the market, but also certain intangibles which could only affect our team.

If DD really is such an incredibly hard worker, and MU sees lots of potential left in his game, that value probably wouldn't be factored into his return on the market. Other teams may be projecting DD's career arc based on statistics which apply to average players, or comparing him to other players who made incremental improvements in their careers. On the other hand, Ujiri would have access to first hand knowledge from observing him during practice and speaking with the multiple coaches who train him. That knowledge is equivalent to "insider" information on the stock market, and in DD's case, I suspect would be used to buy more of his stock, not sell it off.

Not to mention Toronto's situation with FAs etc, and that DD loves the city (value which would see zero return on the market) as well as a possibility that since he's a home grown talent, he might give the Raptors some degree of a hometown discount come negotiation time on his next contract (also a slight amount of expected value which only applies to the Raptors).

I think we'd have a really tough time getting more value in return than DD already provides us (current+future discounted vs. current+future discounted return).

edit: woops, Mchappy beat me to the Lowry punch

[Puffer]

Great thread guys. Thanks imanshumpert for coming up with it. some of the best discussion I have seen in weeks.

I agree with you that the whole "sell high" concept is tricky with young and developing players. As posters above have said, it really is up to the teams staff to utilize their insider knowledge as to where they believe that player will end up. They should be in a better position to do that than any judge from outside the organization.

Sometimes though, you see a lot of value in a player, and outsiders see a lot of value in a player, and an offer comes up that fills a glaring hole in your organization, without leaving one when the player is traded away. Right now, I think trading away Ross or DD for a good back-up center plus picks would be a mistake because the Raps would be trading away scoring (in DD's case) or defense (in Ross' case) that wouldn't be made up for by a back up center (that I think they sorely need).

A delicate dance indeed. Thanks again for the great read guys.

[mcHAPPY]

Right, Lowry is actually an interesting case, but since he's a UFA, I think his trade value in a sign and trade is significantly decreased since that team could find other ways to acquire him, otherwise it might not actually be a terrible move.

I most often see the term used in reference to DD to be honest, and I think what that's overlooking is that Derozan has a lot of intangibles which affect not only his future value on the market, but also certain intangibles which could only affect our team.

If DD really is such an incredibly hard worker, and MU sees lots of potential left in his game, that value probably wouldn't be factored into his return on the market. Other teams may be projecting DD's career arc based on statistics which apply to average players, or comparing him to other players who made incremental improvements in their careers. On the other hand, Ujiri would have access to first hand knowledge from observing him during practice and speaking with the multiple coaches who train him. That knowledge is equivalent to "insider" information on the stock market, and in DD's case, I suspect would be used to buy more of his stock, not sell it off.

Not to mention Toronto's situation with FAs etc, and that DD loves the city (value which would see zero return on the market) as well as a possibility that since he's a home grown talent, he might give the Raptors some degree of a hometown discount come negotiation time on his next contract (also a slight amount of expected value which only applies to the Raptors).

I think we'd have a really tough time getting more value in return than DD already provides us (current+future discounted vs. current+future discounted return).

edit: woops, Mchappy beat me to the Lowry punch

But I slammed the punch back hoping it was spiked. You took the time to savour the drink and enjoy the company and discussion gathered around the bowl..... lol - i.e. a little more thought in your response than my own!

[imanshumpert]

But I slammed the punch back hoping it was spiked. You took the time to savour the drink and enjoy the company and discussion gathered around the bowl..... lol - i.e. a little more thought in your response than my own!

Lololol wtf

[imanshumpert]

Good point on Lowry, didn't consider the decrease in trade value due to UFA status.

My point probably would've applied during the season, not now.

[DanH]

Good point on Lowry, didn't consider the decrease in trade value due to UFA status.

My point probably would've applied during the season, not now.

Well, with Lowry during the season it wasn't a sell-high argument, so much as a sell-before-he-walks argument - i.e. get something rather than nothing. The team's success changed that (increasing the chances he'd re-sign).

The thing about Lowry is that he is as good as he's going to get, give or take increments, so selling high probably doesn't apply to him, even say next deadline after we re-sign him. His value is pretty set, so you can't leverage insider knowledge of his game versus league wide perception, as you need to in a sell high scenario.

[ezz_bee]

To me the term "sell high" naturally implies that the perceived value of the player is not going to increase or even maintain itself at it's current rate--that it is going to reduce, and possibly dramatically.

In terms of the Raptors, the only players I could consider the "sell high" logic applied to would be Derozan, and Lowry AFTER he's resigned. Keep in mind that Ujiri flipped Nene the following season after he re-signed him in Denver. IF Lowy is resigned (which I'm guessing he will be) but the Raptors don't live up to the post-Gay performance of last season Ujiri would could very well trade either/both Lowry/Derozan in December.

I'm actually a big fan of the philosophy. It requires you to look objectively at your players, and decide how good you think they can be, but equally of equal importance how good your team is going to be based on expected performance.

Now I'm not arguing that Masai SHOULD, or WILL trade Demar, but I do think is the perfect candidate for the "sell high" logic.

SELL HIGH? A Case Study on Demar Derozan

Two important questions that need to be determined:

1)What level of success is your team aiming to achieve? Getting into the second round, is way different than playing the Conference or NBA Finals.

2) How likely is it that you achieve that goal with Demar as your starting two guard?

IF the goal in the next 1-5 years is multiple playoff appearances with probable multiple second round appearances, and maybe and Conference Finals appearance, then there is WAY less incentive to sell high on Demar, because there's a decent probability that you'll be able to complete that goal with him on the roster, in his current role/position.

If on the other hand the goal in the next 1-5 years is AT LEAST ONE conference finals, but hopefully multiple conference/NBA Finals, then there is more incentive to sell high on Demar IF you think the odds of that goal being met are relatively low.

Now, what your, mine, or MLSE's goal for the Raptors is arbitrary, and how likely that goal is to be met is subjective, BUT the work of the front office (and us here at Raptor's Republic's "arm chair office") is to make educated guesses about those things and make the decisions based on those educated guesses.


When trying to decide if a player is right for your team there is usually two fits at work

PERSONALITY FIT: Derozan is a 1st time all-star on a pretty decent contract (my defense of his contract is on record in other threads) has been a great ambassador of Toronto, works hard, and has been a part of the culture change in Toronto. I think in terms of personality he's a PERFECT FIT or NEAR PERFECT FIT.

SKILL SET FIT: Gets to the line at a GREAT rate. Not a two way player, not an average-to-elite 3pt shooter, not great passer (especially out of double teams). Derozan & Ross are a small wing pairing, which would probably be exposed by opposing teams in a 7 game series especially in later rounds. Skill set fit isn't great, especially

sub-par defense and under-developed 3pt shooting are on Derozan, but it's not Demar's fault the Raps haven't been able to pair him with the right SF (Gay looks like a good fit physique wise, but too much duplication of skills?/ Fields if he had a jumper???), nevertheless, the FIT is not ideal. Having difficultly guarding your own position and poor team defense instincts are a huge issue to overcome in a seven game series ESPECIALLY in the later rounds.

Although I personally think it's easier to overcome offensive issues, than defensive ones, one sided players are problematic (think Thabo sefalosha and to a lesser extent Danny Green, when neither is hitting 3s), it can happen to with defense only guys as well.


WHY DEROZAN? WHY NOW?
Every player on the roster is going to have different levels of fit, but that doesn't mean everyone is a "sell high" candidate. Contract plays a huge role in the value of a player. Derozan has two seasons at 9.5 million. That's a VERY palatable amount and length. Even of you are a small market team, you give two season to convince Dermar to stay.

Next season, if Demar is playing at the same level or even if he plays better, it is unlikely that he would return MORE in a trade than he would if traded now and the trade deadline. If he is shopped during the 2015 off season Demar is only one season away from not picking up his player option. Teams take those kinds of things into account. In fact if Demar has an amazing year next year teams may be worried about what his free agency market rate might be in 2016. I think Demar's contract is good, and that ultimately it wouldn't be difficult to trade him during the 2015-2016 season, BUT I do think that even if he plays better, you are most likely are going to get LESS for him in the 2015 offseason, than the 2015 trade deadline or before.

The question of how much Demar is going to be worth on the open market is something the raps front office should be thinking about now. If Demar plays well he is not likely to pick up the last year (player option). Can the Raps afford him at his market price? If they sign him at that market rate, can they ALSO afford to pay Jonas and Ross?

IF, you don't think the Raps are likely to reach their goals with Derozan in his current role (whatever that arbitrary goal is), and you are worried about spending on Val, Ross, and Demar in 2016, especially if you have concerns about the Derozan/Ross pairing on the wing. OR you think the market is going to over price Demar in free agency, than trading Demar is probably something the front office should entertain, IF they can swap him for younger players/draft picks that have a good-great personality fit, but better skill set fit.

I've tried to keep my preference/bias dialed down, because if you are happy with 50-50 wins (new franchise record!) and/or a conference finals appearance, and there's nothing wrong with those goals, because we've never been there before, than trading Derozan is not a great idea. If you also have an idea of how that team makes the LEAP and has a team capable of getting to the finals, then you can also keep Derozan.


But the more I think about it, the more I think you need to explore trade options with Demar. As much as I do want to see the Raps in the second round, and even the Conference Finals, I don't see how you take that team and get them to Indy status (which would be the MINIMUM level they'd have to reach in order to be legit finals contenders).

There seems to be a binary in thinking. If we resign Lowry, than we roll with the core of this team, because a first round exit isn't their ceiling. If we don't resign Lowry, than we aren't capable of duplicating our effort so a rebuild is probably the most likely scenario.

Here's my take: Resign Lowry, I can swallow four @ 48, but I'd prefer lower salary numbers and give lots bonuses, 10 mill for four years but a 2mill bump on remaining years if he makes two all-star appearances and the raps win 2 playoff series? Then I shop derozan for a high draft pick or a young player and take back some dead salary to sweeten the deal. Something LIKE Derozan for Nash and the number 9 pick. In that scenario Nash is a back-up/3rd string/victory lap/extra coach/marketing money maker and the PICK is the real trade. I do think, that we could/should get something better, but just an idea of my line of thought. The idea is although you've taken a small step back in overall production and talent, you are still a second round candidate assuming Ross and JV make improvements and Amir is relatively healthy and/or Patterson is brought back.

The goal is to create higher levels of FUTURE talent/production while still being more than competitive. Again, you don't have to trade Demar, and if your perceived market value of Demar is not how he is perceived by the market, then you shouldn't trade him.

BUT giving the palatable contract, the number of years left, and that the ceiling of this team is a second round exit at best next season, it may be worth it to try to flip Demar.

[JimiCliff]

The idea to 'sell high' is an obvious one. Why would you ever 'sell' at anything less than 'high'?

I think the real problem some posters have is a disagreement about what warrants a 'high' return for the asset being sold. That's an entirely different discussion that is completely subjective and often takes time to fully digest (when prospects and/or draft picks are involved).

Don't confuse the definition of a 'high' return with the concept of 'selling high'.

Sometimes, your hand is forced: poor team play, clashing player egos, coach-player dischord, off-court issues, economic pressures, etc etc etc.

[imanshumpert]

Why is it that everyone is so sure we can't win a title with DeRozan on the team?

Why is our ceiling 2nd round fodder just because he's here?

[Fully]

Why is it that everyone is so sure we can't win a title with DeRozan on the team?

Why is our ceiling 2nd round fodder just because he's here?

I can't speak for everyone but I don't think that DD's presence on the team will hold the Raptors or whatever. I do think it will be incredibly difficult to reach the NBA finals with DD as the team's best or 2nd best player, but that has more to do with the historical need of having a top 10 player league wide to reach that point than it is a knock on Derozan.

[imanshumpert]

I can't speak for everyone but I don't think that DD's presence on the team will hold the Raptors or whatever. I do think it will be incredibly difficult to reach the NBA finals with DD as the team's best or 2nd best player, but that has more to do with the historical need of having a top 10 player league wide to reach that point than it is a knock on Derozan.

I'm not even saying that derozan has to be the best player.

I just don't understand the mantra on here that you can't win a title with derozan starting at shooting guard