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Thread: We already have the perfect SF

  1. #81
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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    Player ranking by Pure RAPM
    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2014.html


    63. Landry Fields
    64. Kobe Bryant
    73. Al Horford
    74. Eric Bledsoe
    76. Joakim Noah
    101. Jimmy Butler
    107. Serge Ibaka
    112. Luol Deng
    152. Al Jefferson
    167. Kawhi Leonard (Finals MVP)

    This is what RAPM tells you.

    I mean, seriously, does the stats community truly believe that Landry Fields has a greater impact on his team when he's on the floor than those other guys ranked behind him? This is supposedly after normalization, adjustments and all that other good stuff. Look at where Kawhi Leonard is? I mean, do YOU truly take this stat seriously?

    No wonder coaches like Lionel Hollins snicker at this stuff.
    Leonard plays in a perfect system where every player is effective - as such, his personal impact on the team will be damped, obviously. Note that a lot of the players who seem ranked low are also in amazing systems - lots of CHI players like that as well.

    Context, dude. No one is saying to take these stats as the be all, end all. They are just pieces of the puzzle. You asked for some evidence that Fields is not a huge negative contributor on offense, and I gave several pieces of evidence. Then you complained about small sample size, which is inevitable when the coach refuses to play the player, so I'm confused about you asking for evidence in the first place - small sample size isn't exactly a shock here. Then I referenced RAPM, the most universally accepted impact stat, which deals with that small sample and gives reasonable results, and you change the discussion by trying to frame it as a catch-all stat, which it has never been (no matter what the ESPN bloggers tell you). But it doesn't need to be in order for it to be a piece of evidence that Fields is not a huge negative impact player.

    I could use ANY stat, and build a list like yours. Note how you cherry picked 9 players across a range of 100+ rankings? I could do that for PER, WS, ASPM, points, rebounds, etc and debunk each and every one of those stats by saying "but these guys are ranked worse lol."

  2. #82
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Leonard plays in a perfect system where every player is effective - as such, his personal impact on the team will be damped, obviously. Note that a lot of the players who seem ranked low are also in amazing systems - lots of CHI players like that as well.

    Context, dude. No one is saying to take these stats as the be all, end all. They are just pieces of the puzzle. You asked for some evidence that Fields is not a huge negative contributor on offense, and I gave several pieces of evidence. Then you complained about small sample size, which is inevitable when the coach refuses to play the player, so I'm confused about you asking for evidence in the first place - small sample size isn't exactly a shock here. Then I referenced RAPM, the most universally accepted impact stat, which deals with that small sample and gives reasonable results, and you change the discussion by trying to frame it as a catch-all stat, which it has never been (no matter what the ESPN bloggers tell you). But it doesn't need to be in order for it to be a piece of evidence that Fields is not a huge negative impact player.

    I could use ANY stat, and build a list like yours. Note how you cherry picked 9 players across a range of 100+ rankings? I could do that for PER, WS, ASPM, points, rebounds, etc and debunk each and every one of those stats by saying "but these guys are ranked worse lol."
    It wasn't cherry picking 9 players whatsoever. Just go through the list yourself and you can easily choose at least another 30+ guys that are universally considered more valuable than Fields. Brook/Robin Lopez, Klay Thompson, David West, Isiah Thomas, Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, Zach Randolph, Reggie Jackson, Chandler Parsons, Ryan Anderson, DeMarcus Cousins, Nick Vucevic, Lance Stephenson, DD, Jeff Teague, Jared Sullinger, Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, Thad Young,.... I'm getting tired typing....

    I totally agree that all stats are flawed in some way. And this whole excercise with Fields is flawed because of sample size. But RAPM seems so far removed from what we see, that I don't understand how it can be used to justify anything. I never said that RAPM was the catch-all stat, either. That makes no sense. Why would I? You are the one who said that "everyone in the stats community recognizes RAPM..."
    Last edited by golden; Tue Jun 17th, 2014 at 04:50 PM.

  3. #83
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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    It wasn't cherry picking 9 players whatsoever. Just go through the list yourself and you can easily choose at least another 30+ guys that are universally considered more valuable than Fields. Brook/Robin Lopez, Klay Thompson, David West, Isiah Thomas, Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, Zach Randolph, Reggie Jackson, Chandler Parsons, Ryan Anderson, DeMarcus Cousins, Nick Vucevic, Lance Stephenson, DD, Jeff Teague, Jared Sullinger, Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, Thad Young,.... I'm getting tired typing....

    I totally agree that all stats are flawed in some way. And this whole excercise with Fields is flawed because of sample size. But RAPM seems so far removed from what we see, that I don't understand how it can be used to justify anything. I never said that RAPM was the catch-all stat, either. That makes no sense. Why would I? You are the one who said that "everyone in the stats community recognizes RAPM..."
    Well, I'd argue that perhaps RAPM does not measure what you think it does, or perhaps that Fields is more valuable than you think. I certainly believe Fields has a better overall impact than a bunch of players on that list, who are undeniably more talented but many of them simply do not play smart and can be negative or limited impact players.

    In any case, you asked for:

    LOL. I knew you'd come through with some data - but we're still sort of mis-communicating here. I want an example not just where we are swapping Fields in and out of the lineup, but where he is being swapped out for higher efficiency / higher usage player. As I mentioned, in many cases, he's the alternative to Salmons, who is pretty much identical and equally horrific on offense (12.6 USG / 100 ORTG). So, you wouldn't expect to see much difference there, as both guys hurt the offense just as bad - which doesn't mean Fields is a positive, as you are arguing.
    When you asked for this, I provided exactly that. And then, once it didn't give you the results you wanted, you complained about small sample size (whereupon I did the same thing for the year prior where there was a much larger sample size and came to the same conclusion). RAPM was just one step further to help with that small sample concern. If you want to disregard it due to your issues with RAPM (I'm astonished you have these issues with RAPM and not ASPM, which is even more volatile and nonsensical in it's rankings from year to year), then fine. But RAPM is one piece of several I have provided, the most important of which you basically hand picked and I provided for you.

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    all right enough of the stats bullshit. I watch the games, I say Landry Fields is net plus on the floor. His ball movement, rebounding, and defense along with cuts, compensate for the broken shot. He passes my eye test. I can't believe this is even a debate. He doesn't hurt the Raptors.

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