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Thread: Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

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    Default Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

    I've been posting tidbits in threads here and there, but thought it might be good to post a summary for easy reference, and to paint the full picture of the cap situation.

    Before I start, let me say, for details of salaries and other such stuff, visit Shamsports.com - easily the best and most accurate on the web, even if it takes a little time to update. CBAFAQ.com, run by Larry Coon, is a great resource for those who aren't likely to read through the CBA itself, and want to know about salary exceptions or trade rules.

    I am going to make a few assumptions, and we'll see how I line up with reality when Sham starts updating salaries. Mainly I am assuming all the deals are backloaded (UPDATE: except Lowry, who Sham tweeted got a flat 12M right as I was posting this), since that would result in the Raptors having exactly enough room for the full MLE and a vet minimum deal under the tax after their RFA signings. And since they waited until the exact tax numbers came in to sign Vasquez, I think that's why they were waiting, so I'm going with it.

    2014-15:

    Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
    DeMar DeRozan $9,500,000
    Amir Johnson $7,000,000 (5 M guaranteed)
    Greivis Vasquez $6,265,060
    Landry Fields $6,250,000
    Chuck Hayes $5,958,750
    Patrick Patterson $5,581,395
    Lou Williams $5,450,000
    Jonas Valanciunas $3,678,360
    Tyler Hansbrough $3,326,235
    Terrence Ross $2,793,960
    James Johnson $2,444,988
    Bruno Caboclo $1,458,360
    Diante Garrett $915,243 (unguaranteed)
    Dwight Buycks $816,482 (unguaranteed until 22nd July)
    Marcus Camby $646,609 (buyout)

    Nando de Colo $1,901,900 (cap hold; $1,828,750 QO)
    Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,468,900 (cap hold; will be $1,762,680 when signed)

    Above roster, with Buycks and Garrett waived, de Colo overseas and BeBe signed to 120%: $74,116,398

    Cap: 63.035 M
    Tax: 76.829 M
    Apron/Hard Cap: 80.829 M

    We've used about 2.4M of the 5.3M MLE on James Johnson, leaving 2.9M. Below the tax we have room for 2.7M worth of deals. That's enough for most of our extra 2.9M of MLE or 1 veteran's minimum deal to be used either now or later in the year (we have only one roster slot to fill assuming Buycks and Garrett get waived).

    For future years, I'm going to assume any additional signing with the MLE or minimum will be either 1 year in length or unguaranteed beyond this year.

    2015-16:

    Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
    DeMar DeRozan $9,500,000
    Greivis Vasquez $6,734,940
    Patrick Patterson $6,000,000
    Jonas Valanciunas $4,660,482
    Terrence Ross $3,553,917
    James Johnson $2,555,012
    Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,842,000
    Bruno Caboclo $1,524,000
    2015 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,257,800 (cap hold)

    Nando de Colo $1,901,900 (cap hold; $1,828,750 QO) -> assume we waive his rights to free up cap room

    Projected cap: 66.5M

    Above team salary is $49,628,151. That leaves 16.3M ish to sign a major free agent (or 16.9M to sign two), assuming we let all our expirings walk (that includes Amir, Fields, Hayes, Hansbrough, Williams). Then the room MLE of 2.814M, re-signing de Colo (unlikely), and minimum deals. But they only have room for 5 additions anyway, and only need to add 3 guys, so maybe it is just max-ish level guy, room MLE, and one minimum salary.

    -------------------------

    Then, 2016-17:

    At this point I am spitballing what the front office might look to do.

    My strategy would be to sign someone (say, Paul Millsap) to a mid-sized contract in 2015 for about 10M, use the rest of the space on a 2-year deal on a role player (6.9M), and use the room MLE and one vet min for two years each (second year unguaranteed for both). We are operating above the cap now, so I won't list cap holds except for the key re-signings, and will list picks at their signing value. DeRozan probably opts out of his 9.5M and becomes a free agent.

    Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
    Paul Millsap (eg) $10,450,000 (second year of a 10M contract)
    Role player from 2015: $6,871,849 (expiring)
    Patrick Patterson $6,418,605 (expiring)
    Room MLE from 2015: $2,940,630 (unguaranteed)
    Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,921,320
    Bruno Caboclo $1,589,640
    2015 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,577,280
    2016 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,562,280 (cap hold is lower)
    2016 1st rounder (NYK/DEN assumed 10th): $2,568,600 (cap hold is lower)
    Vet min from 2015 $980,431 (unguaranteed)

    Cap holds:
    DeMar DeRozan $14,250,000
    Jonas Valanciunas $11,651,205
    Greivis Vasquez $10,102,410
    Terrence Ross $8,884,793
    James Johnson $4,854,524

    Total committed salary including cap holds: 97.0M

    Projected Cap: 70.1M (based on this year's cap and next year's projection)
    Projected Tax: 85.4M
    Projected Apron: 89.4M

    Now, maybe JV gets a little more, maybe Ross gets a little less, but let's just say they extend for roughly their cap hold amounts. DD re-signs at a starting salary of his cap hold as well. We'll leave GV and JJ aside for now, moving that committed salary to 83.0M.

    So. We then look to sign and trade for the disgruntled Durant after Westbrook let him down again in the playoffs and OKC lost Reggie Jackson in RFA because they are cheap. This means that we are hard capped at 89.4M (since sign and trades are only for teams under the apron).

    Note that obviously this assumes Leiweke does his job and convinces Durant to sign with us, and that Presti cooperates so Durant doesn't just sign somewhere else and he gets assets back.

    Durant's max contract will be 21.2M starting salary. A sign and trade of expiring contracts (Patterson, 2015 Role Player, 2015 Room MLE signing, 2015 vet minimum signing, and our 2015 draft pick sophomore) would be enough to fit cap-wise. They would obviously want picks included, so we'd send both our recent 2016 unsigned rookies as well. They would waive Room MLE guy and vet minimum guy, and have a young and decent piece in Patterson and our 2015 role player on expiring deals, as well as three recent draft picks, one possibly a top 10 pick. We could include future picks as well, but they would be worth little, as we'd expect to be a powerhouse.

    At this point, our commitments would look like this for 2016-17:

    Kevin Durant - $21,166,553
    DeMar DeRozan $14,250,000
    Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
    Jonas Valanciunas $11,651,205
    Paul Millsap (eg) $10,450,000
    Terrence Ross $8,884,793
    Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,921,320
    Bruno Caboclo $1,589,640

    Total committed salary: 82.3M

    Add in five minimum salary guys at 980k each (for tax purposes) and we are sitting at 86.8M (which we need to do, as we are participating in a sign and trade and are hard capped at 89M). So instead of one of those minimum salary guys, we can bring back Vasquez or James Johnson on a 3.6M dollar deal.

    Then the next year we can start adding players via rookie contracts, tax-payer's MLE, and trades. In the meantime, our depth chart looks like this:

    PG: Lowry, GV?, min
    SG: DeRozan, Ross, min
    SF: Durant, Caboclo
    PF: Millsap, min
    C: JV, BeBe, min

    Fun times.

    ------

    So hopefully the first half of this was helpful, and the second half entertaining in a "hope and a prayer" sort of way.

    Let me know if you see any corrections need making or have any questions.
    Last edited by DanH; Thu Jul 10th, 2014 at 12:32 PM. Reason: Updated for Lowry's 12M flat deal

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    Great analysis Dan. I will not be able to have children if our team looks like that in 2016/17

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    Thanks for the review. Do we think Masai can pull another "Bruno" and ensure that KD doesn't work out for other teams and remains a secret known only to us?

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    The other thing is it should be pretty easy to free up max cap room in 2015 also, should a guy like Love be available. Would just need to deal Vasquez's expiring or maybe the 2 years left on 2Pat's deal.

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    Back to drawing board, DanH! Or at least the update board.


    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

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    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    because I have made this sticky please make sure all comments pertain directly to the OP. I will be heavily moderating the thread for off topic stuff (not a problem yet just so everyone knows going forward)

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    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    Back to drawing board, DanH! Or at least the update board.


    Interesting. How reliable is Deeks?

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    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    Interesting. How reliable is Deeks?
    www.shamsports.com is his website.. so I think he's pretty reliable.

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    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    Interesting. How reliable is Deeks?
    When it comes to contract information I put him in Coon regarding CBA company.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    www.shamsports.com is his website.. so I think he's pretty reliable.
    Didn't know that lol

    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    When it comes to contract information I put him in Coon regarding CBA company.
    Ok seems very reliable

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Scraptor's Avatar
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    The numbers sort of make my head spin, but is there a way to preserve capspace such that we sign KD outright in 2016 without the sign and trade? Isn't that the reason MU is lining up these guys (Vasquez, JJ) on two year deals?

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    Yeah, Sham tweeted that JUST as I hit post. So I've updated it now.

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    Quote Scraptor wrote: View Post
    The numbers sort of make my head spin, but is there a way to preserve capspace such that we sign KD outright in 2016 without the sign and trade? Isn't that the reason MU is lining up these guys (Vasquez, JJ) on two year deals?
    With Lowry signed, and DD opting out and getting a big deal, and JV and Ross due for raises, no, not really. Let's see, quick look and the absolute best we can do for cap room with our current deals in 2016 is about 7M, assuming 14M to re-sign DD. So if we let DD and GV and JJ and Amir walk and sign nothing longer than a 1 year deal next summer, we could have the 21M. But not much in way of a team to attract him here.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    With Lowry signed, and DD opting out and getting a big deal, and JV and Ross due for raises, no, not really. Let's see, quick look and the absolute best we can do for cap room with our current deals in 2016 is about 7M, assuming 14M to re-sign DD. So if we let DD and GV and JJ and Amir walk and sign nothing longer than a 1 year deal next summer, we could have the 21M. But not much in way of a team to attract him here.
    Will we not have bird rights on DD, JV, Ross and the like? Meaning we could go over the cap to resign them.

    Could we not swing a deal where we sign durant first and then sign all those guys?

    Or do their cap holds impede that? (And as I'm typing this I'm thinking they most likely do).
    A key that opens many locks is a master key, but a lock that gets open by many keys is just a shitty lock

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    Quote e_wheazhy_ wrote: View Post
    Will we not have bird rights on DD, JV, Ross and the like? Meaning we could go over the cap to resign them.

    Could we not swing a deal where we sign durant first and then sign all those guys?

    Or do their cap holds impede that? (And as I'm typing this I'm thinking they most likely do).
    Yes cap holds impede that. Otherwise LBJ, Wade, Bosh would just sit back while Pat Riley signs Melo, Lowry, Gortat to whatever and then re-sign, giving them the most godly team ever.

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    Quote e_wheazhy_ wrote: View Post
    Will we not have bird rights on DD, JV, Ross and the like? Meaning we could go over the cap to resign them.

    Could we not swing a deal where we sign durant first and then sign all those guys?

    Or do their cap holds impede that? (And as I'm typing this I'm thinking they most likely do).
    Its the situation right now with Parsons, Bosh and Houston.

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    Default Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

    Quote raptors999 wrote: View Post
    Its the situation right now with Parsons, Bosh and Houston.
    That sign and trade is looking like a lot of asses were giving up. And even though I don't know them, I don't wanna give up our 3 future first rounders! They could be all stars! (/sarcasm)
    A key that opens many locks is a master key, but a lock that gets open by many keys is just a shitty lock

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    With Lowry signed, and DD opting out and getting a big deal, and JV and Ross due for raises, no, not really. Let's see, quick look and the absolute best we can do for cap room with our current deals in 2016 is about 7M, assuming 14M to re-sign DD. So if we let DD and GV and JJ and Amir walk and sign nothing longer than a 1 year deal next summer, we could have the 21M. But not much in way of a team to attract him here.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only guaranteed money we've got committed for 2016-17 is:
    Kyle Lowry $12mm
    Patrick Patterson $6mm
    Bebe Nogueira $1.9mm
    Bruno Caboclo $1.6mm

    If we were to re-sign Demar at $14mm
    renounce all cap holds except for
    Jonas Valanciunas $11.7mm

    We'd have over $20mm to offer Durant, assuming we trade away our picks and small pieces away into space. I'm not saying it's a great or even good option, just wondering if it's possible. Like if Lowry/Demar/Val were all playing at an all-star level, with strong support from the Brazilians, could we add KD and then fill out the roster with minor pieces?

    I'm just wondering what the risk level is of not having cap space and missing out on Durant versus losing the supporting players like Ross and Vasquez and being more certain of getting Durant.

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    Quote Scraptor wrote: View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only guaranteed money we've got committed for 2016-17 is:
    Kyle Lowry $12mm
    Patrick Patterson $6mm
    Bebe Nogueira $1.9mm
    Bruno Caboclo $1.6mm

    If we were to re-sign Demar at $14mm
    renounce all cap holds except for
    Jonas Valanciunas $11.7mm

    We'd have over $20mm to offer Durant, assuming we trade away our picks and small pieces away into space. I'm not saying it's a great or even good option, just wondering if it's possible. Like if Lowry/Demar/Val were all playing at an all-star level, with strong support from the Brazilians, could we add KD and then fill out the roster with minor pieces?

    I'm just wondering what the risk level is of not having cap space and missing out on Durant versus losing the supporting players like Ross and Vasquez and being more certain of getting Durant.
    If it comes down to it, ideally you want to keep the supporting cast AND get Durant.

    But also, if we convinced Durant to sign here and OKC wasn't playing ball, we could always play the game HOU is and dump our salaries to a tanking team. Would probably end up the same 2015 and 2016 draft assets we send out to make it happen. Then we sign him outright. But I doubt it comes to that - if Durant is leaving, I'm certain Presti would play ball to get assets back.

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    Thanks for the info, I posted a thread earlier asking about our current payroll situation. So I'm still a little confused, how much payroll exactly (including the exceptions) do we have left to use this year before hitting the luxury tax?

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