Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 116

Thread: Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

  1. #21
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    1,630
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote raptors999 wrote: View Post
    2.04m
    Yeah, if everyone is a flat contract. In the best case scenario, where they backload JJ, GV and PP, we have 2.7M.

  2. #22
    Raptors Republic All-Star tucas's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Hamilton
    Posts
    1,348
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Yeah, if everyone is a flat contract. In the best case scenario, where they backload JJ, GV and PP, we have 2.7M.
    I have a question. I was looking at the Shamsports site and saw raptors still have cap holds for Pietrus and Telfair. Why not renounce those wouldn't it give us more room under the tax?

  3. #23
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    1,630
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote tucas wrote: View Post
    I have a question. I was looking at the Shamsports site and saw raptors still have cap holds for Pietrus and Telfair. Why not renounce those wouldn't it give us more room under the tax?
    Cap holds only count against the cap, not the tax.

  4. #24
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    961
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Keep in mind too, tax isn't calculated until end of season (last regular season game, I believe). If we end up slightly over during the offseason, all it would take is sending out one contract for a slightly lower return to get back under. Given that any mid-season trades will change our cap hit, it's not like the goal is to get as high without going over right now. There isn't a big difference in being slightly over or slightly under until we start to get close to the trade deadline.
    Last edited by octothorp; Thu Jul 10th, 2014 at 03:48 PM.
    tank-agnostic

  5. #25
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    19,658
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    At the end of the July Moratorium each year, the league sends out a memo containing all of the findings from the audit it conducted during it. That audit is what the moratorium period is for - the moratorium is one long end-of-season book-keep in which it crunches all the numbers related to revenue, BRI, escrow, tax and the like, and makes determinations on both the past and the future. That memo generally filters through to the mainstream media - it has to, because it contains all the things that will make the league work next year, such as the salary cap numbers and exact size of the luxury tax threshold. It also contains things such as the latest projection of the season after next ($66.3 million salary cap, $80.7 million luxury tax threshold) and the sizes of next year's exceptions.

    This year, however, the league sent out a second memo. Entitled "Consideration in Trades and Trade Structure", it is a reminder and/or clarifier to teams about some of the specifics of what they can and cannot do in trades. Seemingly, they felt this was necessary

    Considering the presence of this memo suggests that some teams do not entirely understand the rules (or, perhaps, have been intent on pushing them back a bit), it is self-evidently the case that those of us outside of the league will not fully know them either. So, here goes.

    http://www.shamsports.com/2014/07/co...and-trade.html
    The NBA is not happy with some of the transactions taking place it appears.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  6. #26
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    1,630
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    The NBA is not happy with some of the transactions taking place it appears.
    Looks like the common practice of structuring deals differently from different teams' point of view might be getting put out to pasture. Look for a significant decrease in TPE's if that's the case. Tough to say though - they don't specify any particular rule change - just a "cut it out, guys" and mention of a case by case process.

  7. #27
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    19,658
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Looks like the common practice of structuring deals differently from different teams' point of view might be getting put out to pasture. Look for a significant decrease in TPE's if that's the case. Tough to say though - they don't specify any particular rule change - just a "cut it out, guys" and mention of a case by case process.
    I don't see the purpose here.

    Different teams have different needs and are at different stages of development on different paths to get to where they want to be.

    In other words, what is good for the goose might not be good for the gander.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  8. #28
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    1,630
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    I don't see the purpose here.

    Different teams have different needs and are at different stages of development on different paths to get to where they want to be.

    In other words, what is good for the goose might not be good for the gander.
    I'm not sure. It could be as simple as pride - they designed the CBA to work a certain way, and don't like it when teams find loopholes. Even when there really is no harm done.

  9. #29
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    1,838
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    Great analysis Dan. I will not be able to have children if our team looks like that in 2016/17
    Great post. Could you explain the cap hold concept please?

  10. #30
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    1,630
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote psrs1 wrote: View Post
    Great post. Could you explain the cap hold concept please?
    Bird Rights allow a team to go over the cap to keep their own free agents. But a trick a team could pull is to use all their cap space to sign other free agents, then re-sign their own free agents to go way over the cap. That's not the intent of the Bird Rights rule. So to stop teams from doing that, when they have the rights for a free agent, a cap hold for that free agent sits on the cap. It us essentially cap room set aside for your own free agents that can't be used for other teams' free agents.

    So, for example, this year when Lowry, Vasquez and Patterson were free agents, the Raptors could have had over 10M in cap room. But they could not use that cap room, since the three free agents had cap holds of 10M, 7M and 5M, putting the team way over the cap. Note that you can actually sign your free agents for more than their cap hold. The cap hold is just an estimate of what a player might sign for based on their previous year's salary. Teams can find loopholes because of that. HOU's plan this summer was to use their cap room to sign a max free agent, then re-sign Parsons. This would only work because Parsons' cap hold was only 3M. For most free agents, their cap hold is fairly close to what they will sign for.

  11. #31
    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Toronto
    Posts
    3,019
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    DANH over here over here pick me!

    okay here it goes

    1.) Is there a good guestimate as to how much the cap will rise given players such as Lebron are giving up long term security in order to exploit the new TV deal?

    2.) With the cap expected to rise substantially in July 2016 does that mean flat contracts like Lowry's more or less have the same effect as being frontloaded?
    Last edited by thead; Mon Jul 14th, 2014 at 01:58 PM. Reason: meant frontloaded

  12. #32
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    1,630
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote thead wrote: View Post
    1.) Is there a good guestimate as to how much the cap will rise given players such as Lebron are giving up long term security in order to exploit the new TV deal?
    Tough one. Last time they extended their TV deal (in 2008), the terms went from an average of $767M per year to $930M per year. Projections are based on a) set TV income and b) a 4.5% increase in other revenues. So this season, which uses the 930M in TV revenue, had a total revenue of $4.522B. Projected revenue was $4.481B. So the projections are coming up short. How short? Well, take that 930M off (it's fixed income) and the rest of the BRI was about 1.1% short. So the next couple year's projections, with an additional 1.1% added, are $4.701B (this year) and $4.913B (2015-16). So, by 2016-17, the non-TV revenue portion looks to be $4.215B by itself. With the same $930M TV deal that would mean a cap of $69.4M.

    So. What amount does the TV deal go up? Last time, 6 years after the previous extension, it went up 21%. This time it has been 8 years. So maybe you assume a 28% increase. That would mean $1.19B in TV income. Meaning a total revenue of $5.405B, which translates to a $72.9M cap.

    Or maybe you look at total revenue and assume it is linear with that. In 02-03, when they started the first TV deal I referenced (767M), the total BRI was $2.662B - so non-TV revenue was $1.895B, and the TV deal was at about 40% of other BRI totals. In 08-09, when the newest deal started, the total revenue was $3.608B. So non-TV revenue was $2.678B, and TV revenue was about 35% of non-TV BRI. So based on that, we can assume that the ratio will keep going down - it dropped from 40% to 35% in 6 years, so in 8 years you'd expect it to drop to 29.2%. As noted above, the projected non-TV revenue is $4.215B - meaning $1.23B in TV deal revenue. This seems more reasonable, considering the increase in viewership and revenue in general over the past decade for the NBA. So given that, you'd see a total revenue of $5.445B and a cap of $73.5M.

    Current projections show a cap of $68.7M that year (assuming the same TV deal they are on now), and a cap of 66.5M the year before, so it is a significant difference. Up to an extra 5M, and a total of $7M over the prior year. Bigger jump than this past year, which was a big one.

    2.) With the cap expected to rise substantially in July 2016 does that mean flat contracts like Lowry's more or less have the same effect as being frontloaded?
    Sure. Well, even without big jumps like what might (MIGHT being the operative word) happen in 2016, the cap still rises over time (NBA inflation is much faster than regular inflation). Of course, being frontloaded would make the effect even more extreme.

  13. #33
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    309
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    What happens if we don't sign Kevin Durant , but have Milsap and look for 18- 20 point Sf, what is your financial crystal Ball say

  14. #34
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    1,630
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Heatdreamer wrote: View Post
    What happens if we don't sign Kevin Durant , but have Milsap and look for 18- 20 point Sf, what is your financial crystal Ball say
    Well, by 2016 we are stuck with trades and SnT's to acquire big money talent. So sub in any SF you like in that trade I outlined - just with less assets outgoing if the player is not as good as Durant.

    Otherwise we are stuck with the mid level to make improvements at that point.

  15. #35
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    19,658
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    The impacts of the new TV deal:











    So no wonder LeBron only signs for 2 years. By doing this he can add up to $5.25M per year on a max contract.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  16. #36
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    1,310
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Good lord, that means the cap could be bordering on $80M in 2016...

    Yeah, DeRozan is not signing an extension with a potential max salary starting at like what, 20M?

  17. #37
    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    1,315
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Heatdreamer wrote: View Post
    What happens if we don't sign Kevin Durant , but have Milsap and look for 18- 20 point Sf, what is your financial crystal Ball say

    If we have JV, Millsap, Demar and Lowry, the last thing we need is a SF who provides 18-20 ppg. If we happen to land Durant, then I would imagine Demar is expendable. I see no reason to keep Demar in this scenario, as Durant basically does what Demar does, only better. Also, I imagine Millsap would also be expendable (given JV develops in the post). Lowry, Durant and JV should be plenty to initiate an offense and keep it humming for a starting lineup. Ross would probably fit better next to Durant than Demar, unless Demar turns into a well above average defender. And a solid defensive PF that sets screens and does alot of the little things (like Amir) may be better than a Millsap. Or even Patterson on a cheaper deal than Millsap might be sufficient. Of course, if JV does not develop into a reliable post player, than a guy like Millsap might be great.

    But a lineup of JV, Millsap, Durant, Demar and Lowry looks fantastic on paper, but I just don't see how it can work. There just doesn't seem to be the right balance of skills. The bulk of the defensive responsibility would fall on JV and Lowry so I'm not sure how that would work out.

    And if you add a guy like Durant, you're not doing it to score more points. We already have a top10 offense, it's not like we have trouble scoring...we ain't the Bulls. You simply add Durant to make the offence more efficient and to give you that caliber of player that you can lean on when things aren't going right and to take the tough shots down the stretch.

    From a financial standpoint, with JV, Millsap, Demar and Lowry all making over $10M, it may be best not to even add a Durant to that lineup. What would that starting lineup be worth, ~$70M? Move Millsap and Demar, and then you have options to fill out the roster nicely. Leave Durant out altogether, and you would have options to fill out the roster nicely.

    It would be nice to upgrade the PF position and still have a chance to add Durant to the lineup. I just don't think it makes much sense from a basketball or financial standpoint. People are wondering how LBJ will mesh with Irving and Waiters because there may not be enough ball to go around. How do you find enough ball for JV, Millsap, Durant, Demar and Lowry? Maybe it could work, but then you are basically overpaying some of those guys given the roles they would fill. If Millsap only operates as a stretch 4, then we are squandering his skills and overpaying him for that job, as cheaper options would be available (eg. Patterson). Demar playing off the ball to Durant for $14-15M per would be a huge waste of his skills and money too. How about JV? We gonna pay him $11-12M+ just to rebound and set screens?

    These are things I consider when talking about adding players to our lineup, especially someone like Durant. I like to get the most out of our players, fitting them in a way that maximizes their capabilities, or near about to it. Otherwise, you are overpaying and limiting the teams ability to fill out the roster, with so much money tied up in starting lineup.

    I'm probably the only guy that thinks like this. I'd be ecstatic if we could get Durant, although I think it's extremely unlikely. But I have no interest in doing what MIA did, i.e. pay Bosh the max to be stretch 4. I don't think $18M per year is a wise purchase for a guy to stretch the floor and shoot mid range jumpers and provide good PnR defense. I'd rather pay Patterson $6M and use the other $12M to fill out the roster. Bosh may be worth $18M or more per year, but not in the role he filled in MIA. The same was true for Wade.

  18. #38
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    1,630
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    The impacts of the new TV deal:

    So no wonder LeBron only signs for 2 years. By doing this he can add up to $5.25M per year on a max contract.
    Yeah, although Coon does oversimplify due to twitter constraints. Say it does actually double (a Wall Street Journal article published yesterday claims that is the NBA's intent) and adds Coon's 900M to the current 930M. Then the 900M gets muliplied by .5 to get the new players' total (450M). Then take off benefits (usually about 8%) to get to 414M in salaries. Then divide by 30 to get a per team salary increase (13.8M). Then multiply by .88 to get the cap increase, since teams spend over the cap, leaving the new cap total at 12.1M additional dollars. Translate that to a max salary (use .42 instead of .44, leaving a cap for max salary purposes of 11.4M) by taking 35% and you see an increase of about 4M for max salaries.

  19. #39
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    1,630
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    Good lord, that means the cap could be bordering on $80M in 2016...

    Yeah, DeRozan is not signing an extension with a potential max salary starting at like what, 20M?
    Assuming a 900M increase in TV revenue to 1.83B per year, it works out like this:

    Non-TV revenue (projected): $4.215B
    TV revenue: $1.83B
    Total revenue: $6.045B
    Players' share: $3.023B
    Salary total: $2.781B
    Share per team: $92.7M
    Cap: $82.948M

    DD would have 7 years of experience at that point. Meaning he would be eligible for 30% of the cap. That's 23.4M. Whoa boy.

  20. #40
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    1,310
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Lol we might need James Johnson to take out derozan at the knees to keep that money down

Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 ... LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •