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Thread: ESPN top10 PG's ( Lowry 6th )

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    Raptors Republic Veteran MACK11's Avatar
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    Default ESPN top10 PG's ( Lowry 6th )

    Here's the top 10 PGs as well.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...s-warp-2014-15

    Projecting top 10 PGs for 2014-15
    Chris Paul headlines WARP-based projection rankings for coming season
    Updated: August 18, 2014, 12:50 PM ET
    By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider

    Do you know the last NBA champion that had its point guard lead the team in wins above replacement player (WARP)? It was the 1990 Detroit Pistons, led by Isiah Thomas. Perhaps it's no coincidence that teams like Phil Jackson's Bulls and Lakers, which decentralize the playmaking role, have dominated the annual title chase. Nevertheless, 20 of next season's top 50 players by projected WARP are point guards. Championship trends aside, it's a point guard's league.

    Starting Monday with point guards, over the next week we'll rank players by position according to forecast WARP, which is perfect for this kind of exercise because it accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context. This also means that injury and age played a part in the rankings, so notable veteran point guards who suffered injuries last season, like Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Tony Parker, are absent from the top 10. (A complete explanation can be found at the bottom of this page; last year's point guard rankings can be found here.)

    Here are the projected top 10 point guards for the 2014-15 NBA season, followed by the next five and an overview of why some notable PGs fell outside the top 10.

    PG | SG | SF | PF | C

    Paul
    1. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 17.8 | Win%: 73 percent

    Paul topped these rankings last season and, really, why would things have changed? His 14.2 WARP was held down by the 20 games he missed, but still ranked eighth in the league. Over the last three years, his 48.2 WARP ranks in the 99th percentile. Paul still hasn't enjoyed the magical kind of playoff run that would be the icing on the cake of a historically great career. He'll be 30 by the end of the coming season, but given Paul's floor-based skill set, there is no real need to start talking shrinking windows of opportunity. Paul does it all, he does it consistently and he does it on both ends of the floor.



    Westbrook
    2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 15.1 | Win%: 69 percent

    Westbrook was also second last summer at point guard, but this time around he crawled a couple of WARP closer to Paul. Westbrook missed 36 games last season and as a result finished 30th in WARP, down from third the season before. On the other hand, Westbrook's winning percentage was a career best, and if he goes back to playing 82 games a year, he'll rank as one of the top six or seven players in the league. Westbrook's primary improvement was in shot selection; he increased his frequency of 3-point attempts. If he ever becomes consistent on those deep shots, look out.


    Curry
    3. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.2 | Win%: 67 percent

    Curry's plus-6.1 offensive real plus-minus was a career best. Part of that was Curry's getting his own offense, as his usage rate and true shooting percentage were both career highs. So too was his assist rate, and Curry now runs the point not like just another shoot-first guard, but like a pure playmaker who also happens to be an amazing scorer. Curry has finished fourth in WARP in each of the last two seasons, and a future MVP trophy is well within the realm of possibility.


    Wall
    4. John Wall, Washington Wizards
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 13.8 | Win%: 65 percent

    Wall's 2013-14 season wasn't much different in terms of value from the season before; he was just healthier, playing in all 82 games and logging nearly 3,000 minutes. His winning percentage actually fell from .597 to .594, but all that extra time on the court was worth a five-WARP leap to 11.1, good for 17th in the NBA. Wall will be just 24 at the end of this season, and the projection you see referenced above means this system sees him taking a leap forward. If that happens, the improvement will come from three areas: a better jump shot, a decrease in turnovers and a more focused effort on the defensive end.


    Irving
    5. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 12.1 | Win%: 63 percent

    Irving was third in last year's rankings and figured to be on the verge of a breakout campaign. It didn't happen. Irving's winning percentage was a career low. This season, Irving's game will change one way or another with new teammates LeBron James and (probably) Kevin Love around. He'll have to be a more efficient scorer. Irving's true shooting percentage was just 53 percent a season ago, and he shot just 46 percent on 2-pointers. More importantly, Irving will need to quit putting up defensive metrics that seriously undercut his bottom-line value.


    Lowry
    6. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 11.8 | Win%: 62 percent

    Last season could hardly have gone better for Lowry, who ranked eighth in last year's projections. After three seasons right around 8.0 WARP, Lowry exploded for 14.3 last season, ranking seventh in the league, 27 spots better than his previous best. He led the Raptors to a franchise-record 48 wins, then signed a four-year, $48 million deal to remain in Toronto. Lowry's indirect impact has been very consistent over his career, but last season he became more efficient with his own offense, posting career bests in both usage rate and true shooting percentage.


    Lillard
    7. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 11.24 | Win%: 60 percent

    Any concerns that Lillard might have entered the NBA near his perceived ceiling were assuaged by his terrific second season. He remained a workhorse by again playing all 82 games and getting nearly 3,000 minutes. His improvement outside the 3-point arc offset a bit of a decline inside it, and he also got to the line more often. Lillard's assist rate fell a bit, but that didn't affect his indirect impact, and his offensive RPM climbed from plus-2.1 to plus-5.3. His defensive indicators are poor, and that should be an area of focus going forward.


    Conley
    8. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 11.21 | Win%: 62 percent

    Conley missed a few more games in 2013-14 than he did the previous season, but otherwise last season was a dead ringer from the previous campaign, with one exception: Conley used more offense, which came primarily in the form of 2-point shots. More important was Conley's ball protection. He turned the ball over between 14.2 and 15.7 percent of his possessions in each of his first six seasons; last season, that number was slashed to 11.5. Unlike some other top point guards, Conley doesn't kneecap his value on defense, with a defensive RPM of break-even-or-better four years running.


    Rubio
    9. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.9 | Win%: 63 percent

    Rubio rates as one of the league's best defensive point guards. This season, he'll have to up the ante on the offensive end with Kevin Love likely on his way to Cleveland. Despite an ugly turnover rate, Rubio's playmaking clearly elevates the level of his teammates. But his usage rate fell almost 5 percent in 2013-14, to an unacceptable 16.5 percent. And while he made nominal improvements with his shooting accuracy, he has a long way to go. Simply put, with Love gone, Rubio has to figure out a way to put the ball in the hoop.


    Lawson
    10. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.1 | Win%: 60 percent

    In his first post-George Karl season, Lawson did a little more of everything, but he did it more inefficiently than ever before. That's been the trend throughout his career, with a usage rate that has gone up every season and a true shooting percentage that has fallen accordingly. Last season, Lawson's assist rate climbed over 10 percent for the first time, but his turnover rate spiked. His defensive metrics have always been poor, so on a healthier roster, Denver needs Lawson to recover some efficiency.

    The next five: Goran Dragic, Deron Williams, Kemba Walker, Michael Carter-Williams, Trey Burke

    Dragic's career season puts him on the verge of the elite, while Williams' worst season drops him from the top five.

    Also notable: Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Beverley, Jrue Holiday, Isaiah Thomas, as well the aforementioned Rondo, Rose and Parker. As we mentioned in the introduction, Injury woes and age undermine the projections for some of these big-name players.
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    you mind posting the full write up for shoot guards, and i think sf is out too, is demar there?

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    Projecting top 10 SGs for 2014-15
    James Harden headlines WARP-based ranking of NBA's top shooting guards
    Updated: August 19, 2014, 12:39 PM ET
    By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider

    Assigning positions to players is a nebulous exercise at best, and maybe that as much as anything accounts for the paucity of top-flight shooting guards in today's NBA.

    The best players at the position tend to spend plenty of time at adjacent spots, whether it's a combo guard like Monta Ellis who can run the point, or a longer player like Jimmy Butler who swings between the wing positions. Whatever the reason, just four of the top 50 in projected wins above replacement players (WARP) are coded as 2-guards in our forecast. There are 24 point guards who would have cracked the top 10 at shooting guard. Where have you gone, Reggie Miller?

    Over the next week, we'll rank players by position according to forecast WARP, which is perfect for this kind of exercise because it accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context. (A complete explanation can be found at the bottom of this page; last year's shooting guard rankings can be found here.)

    Here are the projected top 10 shooting guards for the 2014-15 NBA season, followed by the next five and an overview of why some notable SGs fell outside the top 10.

    PG | SG | SF | PF | C

    Harden
    1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 16.2 | Win%: 67 percent

    Last season, Harden was just nudged out of the top spot by Dwyane Wade, but this time around, he laps a weak field of 2-guards. One issue that holds back traditional shooting guards is they don't have the ball in their hands that often, which tends to suppress their value in new metrics such as WARP. That's not a problem for Harden. According to SportVu data from NBA.com, Harden averaged 5.3 minutes per game in time of possession, ranking 15th in the league. Among the top 18, only LeBron James joined Harden as non-point guards.

    Harden justifies all that possession time with a true shooting percentage annually above the .600 mark, buoyed by his league-average 3-point shooting and astronomical foul-drawing rate. Harden's on-ball defensive metrics aren't as bad as his reputation suggests, but his team defensive markers are so bad that, statistically, the perception about Harden's indifference on that end seems well-deserved. Still, as long as he keeps churning out 14 to 15 WARP per season, he'll remain a top-10 player.



    Wade
    2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.1 | Win%: 62 percent

    Speaking of time of possession, Wade will be getting a lot more of it this season with James back in Cleveland. One of the more intriguing subplots of "The Return" is that now we'll see just how much game Wade and Chris Bosh have left. Last season, at age 32, Wade put up his lowest WARP and winning percentage since his rookie season. Also near career-lows were Wade's usage rate and assist rate. Now, as he returns to the role of Miami's offensive creator, can Wade stay somewhat efficient if he soars back to a usage rate above 30 percent and an assist rate more than 9 percent? If he can, can his body hold up to the challenge?


    Ellis
    3. Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.4 | Win%: 56 percent

    Here's the genius of Rick Carlisle. Last season, Carlisle installed Ellis as a primary component in a veteran-laden, high-powered offensive attack. He allowed Ellis to use just as many possessions as he did in Milwaukee, but Dallas' scheme kept Ellis on the attack. His shoddy 3-point shooting was minimized, and his foul-drawing escalated. It wasn't Ellis at his most efficient, but it was close. More important, Ellis did all of this in service of the team. His previous career-best in offensive RPM was plus-1.2. Last season, he was at plus-3.2. It was a different story on the defensive end, but Carlisle focuses on the strengths of his players, so we'll do the same.


    Butler
    4. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.3 | Win%: 56 percent

    Butler will probably never be a dynamic offensive player, but he does so many things well that he's become one of the best two-way performers at his position in the league. Last season, Butler extended his game out to the 3-point line more often, although his accuracy there didn't justify the volume of attempts. Still, it was a smart adjustment, one that could especially pay dividends this season if Derrick Rose can stay healthy and contract the defense. Butler stayed aggressive putting the ball on the floor, and is Chicago's best foul-drawing threat. He's also the best perimeter defender on one of the league's top defenses, with the versatility to check any of the perimeter positions. Entering his fourth season, our system sees a breakout campaign coming for Butler.


    Waiters
    5. Dion Waiters, Cleveland Cavaliers
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.9 | Win%: 55 percent

    Waiters is a combined minus-0.4 WARP during his two NBA seasons, so the system might be a little optimistic with this forecast. What the metrics might be missing is the intrinsic value of Waiters' ability to create offense. Despite a well-below-average true shooting percentage, Waiters' offensive RPM has been positive in both his seasons and reached plus-1.8 last year. If the optimism of his forecast proves to be warranted, it's a scary proposition for the rest of the NBA. Cleveland point guard Kyrie Irving clocked in at No. 5 in our rankings yesterday. It's probably not spoiling anything to tell you that James and Kevin Love will rate very high at their respective positions as well. If Waiters really develops into a top-five shooting guard, that will be something to see.


    Evans
    6. Tyreke Evans, New Orleans Pelicans
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.3 | Win%: 54 percent

    Evans' winning percentage last season (.529) was just one point better that the season before, but he went about it in a very different manner. His assist rate jumped by more than 3 percent. As a scorer, his volume surged even as his shooting percentages tumbled. Yet -- and this is why RPM is so valuable -- we can see that this shifting profile served the Pelicans well, as his offensive RPM jumped to plus-1.3. His defense was horrific, however, and Evans' inability to translate his raw physical material into positive impactful defense remains the most disappointing aspect of his career.


    Oladipo
    7. Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.3 | Win%: 53 percent

    The most exciting development of another lost season for Orlando was that Oladipo was on the court for nearly 2,500 minutes. His offensive production wavered in terms of consistency, but he flashed a full range of skills. He created offense (24.6 percent usage), set up teammates (6 percent assist rate) and established himself as a potential lockdown defender. The growing pains were there in Oladipo's .514 true shooting percentage and high turnover rate, but it was a great starting point.


    Thompson
    8. Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.2 | Win%: 52 percent

    There is a giant disconnect between Thompson's perceived value and his measurable value as judged by advanced metrics. Last season was his best, yet his 3.5 WARP ranked just 108th in the NBA. However, hidden behind those numbers was a leap forward in offensive RPM, from minus-0.2 to plus-3.0. That suggests that last season more than ever, Thompson improved his ability to leverage his threat as a shooter in a way to offset his lack of measurable production. Of course, last season, his measurables were better than ever, too, as he posted career highs in true shooting percentage and usage rate, all while posting solid on-ball defensive metrics. It'll be interesting to see what Steve Kerr can do with him.


    Ginobili
    9. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.0 | Win%: 60 percent

    Even at 36, the only thing holding back Ginobili is Gregg Popovich's masterwork at keeping his stars' playing time down during the regular season. Note that Ginobili's forecasted winning percentage is the third-best mark on the list. His performance has never faltered.


    Stephenson
    10. Lance Stephenson, Charlotte Hornets
    Projected 2014-15 WARP: 5.6 | Win%: 51 percent

    Leaving aside Stephenson's goofy on-court antics, 2013-14 was a breakout season for a player who didn't merit so much as a mention in the rankings of his position a year ago. Stephenson's usage rate jumped by more than 4 percent, yet his efficiency soared: His true shooting percentage increased from .529 to .564. His increased assist rate and elite rebound percentages made him a consistent triple-double threat. However, there are rough edges in his game even beyond the enigmatic behavior, but if Steve Clifford can harness what Stephenson does best, Charlotte's summer investment in him should pay off.

    Next five: Kobe Bryant, Bradley Beal, Danny Green, Wesley Matthews, J.R. Smith

    Beal's winning percentage fell from his rookie season, and he's been negative in RPM on both ends of the floor in both of his NBA seasons. Yet his late-season performance, including the playoffs, suggest he'll move well up this leaderboard by next summer. As for Bryant, his playing-time forecast is predictably suppressed, but even if it weren't, his projected winning percentage would just barely get him into the top 10.

    Also notable: DeMar DeRozan, Joe Johnson

    DeRozan is probably underrated at this point, but it's no mystery as to why: He had a fine 2013-14 season with 5.4 WARP, but he had been well under replacement level in each of his four campaigns. One more solid season, and DeRozan will be a top-10 fixture.
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    DD 16th or 17th?

    Bullllllllshiiiiitttttttt.
    The name's Bond, James Bond.

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    Quote 007 wrote: View Post
    DD 16th or 17th?

    Bullllllllshiiiiitttttttt.
    Exactly. If this is the result your metric comes up with, then your metric is flawed.

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    Quote 007 wrote: View Post
    DD 16th or 17th?

    Bullllllllshiiiiitttttttt.
    It seems so at first (I thought so too) but its explained outright why (his previous season performances). It's pointed out that he'll most likely be top 10 by next year with another solid performance (system wise). They outright say he's underrated through the system due to previous years having him really bad so I wouldn't put so much stock into his.

    Ginobili being up there is the surprise, given the system specifically takes age into account.

    Quote S.R. wrote: View Post
    Exactly. If this is the result your metric comes up with, then your metric is flawed.
    It's not really flawed. It can only takes into account that data that is has at its access. Its outright explained why.

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    Quote Just Is wrote: View Post
    It's not really flawed. It can only takes into account that data that is has at its access. Its outright explained why.
    Exactly. Semantics, maybe, but there are always situations that illustrate the shortcomings of any given metric. This is one of them - it's called a flaw.

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    Quote S.R. wrote: View Post
    Exactly. Semantics, maybe, but there are always situations that illustrate the shortcomings of any given metric. This is one of them - it's called a flaw.
    It pretty clearly says that the metric undervalues him because he has had one great season, with many more sub par seasons. This would seem like a good way to eliminate any outliers. Just because you disagree with there methods, doesn't mean the metric is flawed.

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    Jimmy Butler 4th?! give me a break.

    After Harden and Wade the rankings are quite murky.

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    Quote DogeLover123 wrote: View Post
    It pretty clearly says that the metric undervalues him because he has had one great season, with many more sub par seasons. This would seem like a good way to eliminate any outliers. Just because you disagree with there methods, doesn't mean the metric is flawed.
    Yet Waiters and Olapido don't even have a single good season to bank on and it's projecting their values quite high.

    Seems to me that if the author is saying he's undervalued by the metric then there's a good probability that the metric isn't very good. A simple eye test combined with various statistical projections would have made much better rankings.

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    Now I remember why I stopped paying for ESPN Insider. Just a bunch of made up stats so their "writers" don't have to watch any actual basketball and do any actual analysis

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    "DeRozan is probably underrated at this point, but it's no mystery as to why: He had a fine 2013-14 season with 5.4 WARP, but he had been well under replacement level in each of his four campaigns. One more solid season, and DeRozan will be a top-10 fixture."

    What the writer should've wrote was

    DeRozan is definitely underrated at this point, but it's no mystery as to why: He plays for the Toronto Raptors in Canada.

    Here's what doesn't make any sense. Last year was Oladipo's first year in the league and he put him at 7th...so he's using 1 year for Oladipo but can't use 2013-2014 for Demar??

    At what point does common sense matter? Aren't they projecting the top SGs for 2014-2015 based on 2013-2014??

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    Quote special1 wrote: View Post
    "DeRozan is probably underrated at this point, but it's no mystery as to why: He had a fine 2013-14 season with 5.4 WARP, but he had been well under replacement level in each of his four campaigns. One more solid season, and DeRozan will be a top-10 fixture."

    What the writer should've wrote was

    DeRozan is definitely underrated at this point, but it's no mystery as to why: He plays for the Toronto Raptors in Canada.

    Here's what doesn't make any sense. Last year was Oladipo's first year in the league and he put him at 7th...so he's using 1 year for Oladipo but can't use 2013-2014 for Demar??

    At what point does common sense matter? Aren't they projecting the top SGs for 2014-2015 based on 2013-2014??
    They're projecting the players based on Wins Above Replacement Player which is a stat that only works in baseball analytics except for the fact that it doesn't work in baseball analytics. Sportswriters these days will do anything to not watch sports. Take Doug Smith for example. Reading his blog would lead you to believe that he hates his job and sports in general.

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    Terrible analytics and reasoning. The SG and SF lists are just jokes.

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    Quote special1 wrote: View Post
    "DeRozan is probably underrated at this point, but it's no mystery as to why: He had a fine 2013-14 season with 5.4 WARP, but he had been well under replacement level in each of his four campaigns. One more solid season, and DeRozan will be a top-10 fixture."

    What the writer should've wrote was

    DeRozan is definitely underrated at this point, but it's no mystery as to why: He plays for the Toronto Raptors in Canada.

    Here's what doesn't make any sense. Last year was Oladipo's first year in the league and he put him at 7th...so he's using 1 year for Oladipo but can't use 2013-2014 for Demar??

    At what point does common sense matter? Aren't they projecting the top SGs for 2014-2015 based on 2013-2014??
    dont see the problem with that assessment. aside from this past season, derozan has not been that good. is that a big surprise to anyone???

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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    dont see the problem with that assessment. aside from this past season, derozan has not been that good. is that a big surprise to anyone???
    But why is someone like Oladipo ahead of him?

    They only have one year of data on Oladipo, and that year (last year) DD played better. Why is Oladipo so far ahead of him?
    The name's Bond, James Bond.

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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    dont see the problem with that assessment. aside from this past season, derozan has not been that good. is that a big surprise to anyone???
    Not surprised some feel that way about 2-5 seasons ago, but it's a dumb way to evaluate where a player is now, and going into the new season. What was Olapido doing 5 years ago? Waiters 5 years ago? What has Tyreke done except decline since his rookie year? As a SG. Last year he played more SF I think. It's not supposed to be about history, but projecting the coming season, and nothing says that more than a guy who is playing VERY well NOW, and continuing to work his ass off to improve. What he did/didn't 3 years means sfa.

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    Quote 007 wrote: View Post
    But why is someone like Oladipo ahead of him?

    They only have one year of data on Oladipo, and that year (last year) DD played better. Why is Oladipo so far ahead of him?
    depends on what sort of stats you're looking at i suppose? 1 good year out of 5 average/bad years hurts your outlook.

    olapidos FIRST YEAR is *almost* as good as derozans FIFTH year. olapido is a better defender and already has a better 3 point shot than derozans career high (also from last year).

    rudy gay had a phenomenal season with the kings. does that make him a top SF all of a sudden?

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    It's not really flawed. It can only takes into account that data that is has at its access. Its outright explained why.[/QUOTE]

    yeah that's true, so when i tell you that increased ice cream sales are directly related to increased home robbers rates, it probable means we should stop selling ice cream so that people stop robbing other peoples homes. or perhaps thats not the case at all and there is something else skewing the data such as maybe hot weather and people leaving their homes for their camp/cottage. no nm its probable the ice cream lets keep using this formula.

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    if waiter's a top 5 shooting g why would minny not have included in the trade instead of the unproven wiggins

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