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ESPN top10 PG's ( Lowry 6th )

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  • #16
    iblastoff wrote: View Post
    dont see the problem with that assessment. aside from this past season, derozan has not been that good. is that a big surprise to anyone???
    But why is someone like Oladipo ahead of him?

    They only have one year of data on Oladipo, and that year (last year) DD played better. Why is Oladipo so far ahead of him?
    The name's Bond, James Bond.

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    • #17
      iblastoff wrote: View Post
      dont see the problem with that assessment. aside from this past season, derozan has not been that good. is that a big surprise to anyone???
      Not surprised some feel that way about 2-5 seasons ago, but it's a dumb way to evaluate where a player is now, and going into the new season. What was Olapido doing 5 years ago? Waiters 5 years ago? What has Tyreke done except decline since his rookie year? As a SG. Last year he played more SF I think. It's not supposed to be about history, but projecting the coming season, and nothing says that more than a guy who is playing VERY well NOW, and continuing to work his ass off to improve. What he did/didn't 3 years means sfa.

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      • #18
        007 wrote: View Post
        But why is someone like Oladipo ahead of him?

        They only have one year of data on Oladipo, and that year (last year) DD played better. Why is Oladipo so far ahead of him?
        depends on what sort of stats you're looking at i suppose? 1 good year out of 5 average/bad years hurts your outlook.

        olapidos FIRST YEAR is *almost* as good as derozans FIFTH year. olapido is a better defender and already has a better 3 point shot than derozans career high (also from last year).

        rudy gay had a phenomenal season with the kings. does that make him a top SF all of a sudden?

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        • #19
          It's not really flawed. It can only takes into account that data that is has at its access. Its outright explained why.[/QUOTE]

          yeah that's true, so when i tell you that increased ice cream sales are directly related to increased home robbers rates, it probable means we should stop selling ice cream so that people stop robbing other peoples homes. or perhaps thats not the case at all and there is something else skewing the data such as maybe hot weather and people leaving their homes for their camp/cottage. no nm its probable the ice cream lets keep using this formula.

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          • #20
            if waiter's a top 5 shooting g why would minny not have included in the trade instead of the unproven wiggins

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            • #21
              iblastoff wrote: View Post
              depends on what sort of stats you're looking at i suppose? 1 good year out of 5 average/bad years hurts your outlook.

              olapidos FIRST YEAR is *almost* as good as derozans FIFTH year. olapido is a better defender and already has a better 3 point shot than derozans career high (also from last year).

              rudy gay had a phenomenal season with the kings. does that make him a top SF all of a sudden?
              Are you drunk? DeRozan had 10x the season Oladipo had.

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              • #22
                Raptorsnz wrote: View Post
                Are you drunk? DeRozan had 10x the season Oladipo had.
                I am and even I think that comment is whack.
                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                • #23
                  Axel wrote: View Post
                  I am and even I think that comment is whack.
                  double whack

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                  • #24
                    WARP isn't really the problem - the problem is the way they are projecting forward. They are clearly giving rookies and sophomores huge jumps in their production, while more established players are given an average of the last few years. Hence DeMar's low rating, and Waiters' high one. Flawed approach. But what can you do? Any projection system is going to be flawed. I certainly would bend to a more conservative (recent result-dependent) approach.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • #25
                      DanH wrote: View Post
                      WARP isn't really the problem - the problem is the way they are projecting forward. They are clearly giving rookies and sophomores huge jumps in their production, while more established players are given an average of the last few years. Hence DeMar's low rating, and Waiters' high one. Flawed approach. But what can you do? Any projection system is going to be flawed. I certainly would bend to a more conservative (recent result-dependent) approach.
                      I noticed that, too. They projected Lowry's WARP to drop from 14.3 to 11.8 with no rationale given. Assuming contract year overproduction last season? Regression to the norm? Certainly ignores the nuances we're aware of re: Lowry's personal and professional growth, and the fact that he's in a great situation. Combine those things and I'd look at last season as a step in his evolution as a player, not an excessively productive outlier year.

                      Anyway, you're absolutely right. The WARP projections for next season are a strangely (and extremely) subjective twist to the use of an advanced metric.
                      "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                      • #26
                        Of all the advanced stats stuff that gets thrown around (I usually am fully on board with most of it). The articles on ESPN by Doolittle and Kevin Pelton are usually so blah and what I would consider to be way off the mark, the WARP data seems to be the common denominator, although I could be wrong as mentioned above by DanH. I don't even bother reading them anymore.

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                        • #27
                          Any word on whether jv made the list of C's

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                          • #28
                            Jclaw wrote: View Post
                            Any word on whether jv made the list of C's
                            Didn`t even make the top 18.

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                            • #29
                              Raptorsnz wrote: View Post
                              Are you drunk? DeRozan had 10x the season Oladipo had.
                              10x? get real. we're talking a kids ROOKIE year vs derozan basically entering his prime years. still dont get why everyone is so up in arms about this list. derozans shoddy career UP until this past breakout season was mediocre at best. when you PROJECT for the future you have to take into consideration their history. obviously they have limited data on oladipo but his rookie season was pretty damn good so you have to assume he'll get better.

                              derozan right now is defying the odds and maybe he'll make another leap, but his past performance doesn't help him with these projections. dont know how that is so hard to understand.

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                              • #30
                                just curious kyle is rated very high. is he a deal at 12m per

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