JV comparable big man production in the modern NBA

[charlesnba23]

I see so much talent and potential when I watch this guy play. Given more minutes and touches, I'm pretty sure he could average way more than 15 points a game.

[Axel]

I see so much talent and potential when I watch this guy play. Given more minutes and touches, I'm pretty sure he could average way more than 15 points a game.

There will certainly be a point when giving him the ball will decrease his efficiency, but we have no idea how many shot attempts and what usage% that is.

I think with his defensive and rebounding responsibilities, 18 & 12 will be his prime years. But with his great FT shooting, could certainly be higher.

[raptors999]

You're not a superjudge, therefore you cannot criticize one's judgement on others. Does his name mean nothing to you people?

Anybody with an asshole has a justifiable opinion or something like that

[Mindlessness]

No, unless you're taking a single sentence out of context and running wild with it, but I know none of you guys would do that! Let's think about this rationally - Casey won an NBA title with Chandler as the key cog in his defensive system. Of course he thinks Chandler would fit in his system. He's talking about a specific time, in a specific game, where he didn't think a "traditional" centre was the best option, and it doesn't matter if it was JV, Chandler, or Wilt Chamberlain, they wouldn't have played.

The way I've seen the quote referenced and analyzed in the past few days, you make it seem like he called a special press conference to announce it or he penned a 1,000 word opinion piece in the Sun called "Tyson Chandler would not fit in my defensive scheme!". It was a throw away quote, that was actually meant to appease JV and his supporters, in one of the hundred or so interviews that Casey has done this year.

You can debate the overall idea of the go-small strategy on defence all day, and I'd be on the same side as you with a lot of your complaints (not with the notion that defending the 3 point line suddenly becomes not so important against teams that don't shoot it great however; especially when you're protecting a small lead in a game, but I digress)… but the quote about Chandler means absolutely nothing.

BOLD 1: I have this - I think deluded - belief that there have been a lot of "specific games" and "specific times" where JV does not go in. Y'know, like every 9 out of 10 4th quarters.

BOLD 2: I'll agree on the paragraph in general, but he still basically admits because of the style of play, he would not play a former DPOY center. I kinda sorta see a problem there.

[Axel]

BOLD 1: I have this - I think deluded - belief that there have been a lot of "specific games" and "specific times" where JV does not go in. Y'know, like every 9 out of 10 4th quarters.

BOLD 2: I'll agree on the paragraph in general, but he still basically admits because of the style of play, he would not play a former DPOY center. I kinda sorta see a problem there.

Agreed.

[Axel]

UPDATE AFTER JVs 3rd Year

In the OP, I outlined how the modern NBA big man’s expected production to be deemed “elite” should be roughly around the 16 PPG and 10 RPG threshold. This threshold was only achieved by 7 centers over the previous 14 seasons. That sounds elite to me.

At the time of the OP, the thought was that JV could, within 2-3 seasons, achieve the 16/10 season. We are 1 season into that time frame, and while JV’s per game stats this year were “only” 12 PPG and 8.7 RPG, his 26.2 MPG makes it hard to compare when most bigs in his production range are getting over 30 MPG easy.

Taking a look at his per36 figures, his scoring rose from 14.5 to 16.5 and his rebounding went from 11.3 to 11.9. That supports the OP theory that given opportunity (minutes and touches), JV could produce at the “elite” level out-lined. But like most people, always be a little skeptical of per36 figures, so a historical perspective is needed to really gauge the impact. So I looked at 3rd year players ALL-TIME in the NBA who produced per36 of 16+10. I put a minimum of 15 mpg as a filter to minimize too small sample sizes.

The results....104 third-year players in NBA history have put up Per36 of 16+ Points, and 10+ Rebounds, while playing at least 15 MPG. Jonas put up 16.5 and 11.9. Of these 104 players, there are 29 current Hall of Famers such as Barkley, Kareem, Robinson, Bird, Hakeem, Wilt and Sabonis. There are 21 active players (could be 20 depending on whether Tim Duncan returns next season).

Of the 104 total all-time players, Jonas ranked 4th in TS% at .623 (Sir Charles Barkley was #1 at .660). He is one of 18 players in the 104 that performed this while younger than 23. He is 30th in FTRate, 18th in BLK%, 23rd in WS48 to name a few (if you dislike the ones I chose, feel free to suggest a stat and I’ll pull it – I didn’t cherry pick, I posted all I checked).

If you look at just last season (remove the 3rd year requirement, but keep the rest), 21 players hit the 16-10 per36 threshold. Jonas was 17th (of 21) in MPG, 17th in PPG, 15th in RPG. His per36 figures from last year would rank 17th in scoring and 8th in rebounding. Of these 21 players, only Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond are younger than JV.

In the OP, the players best likened JV’s production rate to were Andrew Bogut and Al Horford.

Bogut – took until his 5th season to reach the per36 threshold but hasn’t repeated that production since.

Al Horford still hasn’t (gets either points or rebounds, hasn’t been able to make both in a single season).

So while both are still valuable comparables at this point, JV appears to have surpassed both of them at this stage in terms of rate of scoring and rebounding.

Looking at JV’s per36 this season compared to history, Dwight Howard, and Al Jefferson stick out as new comparables to look at further.

Dwight Howard – his 3rd season was his first of eight consecutive all-star selections. That season, he put up 17.6 PPG and 12.3 RPG while playing 36.9 MPG. The per36 numbers come out as 17.2 and 12 (Reminder, JV’s was 16.5 and 11.9). Certainly comparable production when adjusting for the minutes difference. Dwight was already a defensive terror then. His 1.9 Blocks per game ranked T-11th that season (JV had 1.2 BPG) but would have been 7th this season. Dwight’s TS% was .619 (2nd best of his career), he grabbed 20.5% of Rebounds (JV was 19.1). Now Dwight went on to be a star, but with comparable production already, maybe we are all actually under-valuing JV. JV has a huge advantage over D12, free throw shooting. Dwight is a career 57.3% FT shooter (largely responsible for his poor ORtg, career best of 113 – JV was 121 last year) while JV went 78.6% last year.

Al Jefferson – his 3rd season (last in Boston) saw per game totals of 16 PPG and 11 RPG in 33.6 MPG. Translated per 36, 17.2 Points and 11.7 Rebounds. Again, very comparable to JV’s 16.5 + 11.9. Al Jeff had 1.5 blocks per game that year (JV 1.2), but his TS% was .547 (JV .623) and, like Dwight, struggles at the FT line have held back his efficiency (shot 68.1% in his 3rd year and is a career 71%). With a Usage% of 22.4 (comparable to Dwight) and Rebounding % of 19.5 (JV 19.1), Al Jefferson is a very accurate comparable for 3rd year production rate. The next season he was 21+11 per game in 35.6 MPG.


Enes Kanter is one to watch – drafted 2 spots ahead of JV in the 2011 draft. This season (thanks in large part to a trade to OKC), Enes put up per game numbers of 15.5 and 8.9 (his OKC numbers for 26 games was 18.7 and 11). His TS% for the year was .564, his Rebound% was 17.6 and BLK% was 1.1. (FWIW – he played 42% of his time in OKC at the PF slot.) Per 100 possessions, OKC was +1.1 better with him on the court (he was -3.4 in Utah). Kanter is likely the player that JV should be compared to moving forward, as they have similar production and age.

All of this isn’t to say that JV will be as good as Howard or better than Horford, we simply cannot know. All I am trying to do, is demonstrate how JV’s current production fits into the historical context so we can try and forecast a reasonable expectation moving forward. If you were to plot all the players here, showing their production over the course of their careers, JV would fall somewhere in that range. With the dwindling impact of Centers in the NBA, JV could really be elite for the Raps.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...rder_by=ts_pct

[007]

We have to keep JV. Good with potential to be great centers can be hard to find.

[planetmars]

I wanted to see how JV did when he played at least 30mpg. This season he only got that opportunity 23 times.

His average in those 23 games: 15.9ppg and 10.9rpg.

[Primer]

I wanted to see how JV did when he played at least 30mpg. This season he only got that opportunity 23 times.

His average in those 23 games: 15.9ppg and 10.9rpg.

Hopefully Casey can adjust his defensive scheme so that he's willing to play JV over 30 mpg.

[jacobdr4]

I wanted to see how JV did when he played at least 30mpg. This season he only got that opportunity 23 times.

His average in those 23 games: 15.9ppg and 10.9rpg.

Could also be that in those games that he's playing well Casey actually plays him more minutes. Not to take anything away from JV

[jacobdr4]

If anyone wants another reason to hate Bleacher Report according to their Power Rankings of centers, Gorgui Dieng, Omer Asik, Nerlens Noel and Mozgov are all better centers than JV right now.

[McRealistic]

If anyone wants another reason to hate Bleacher Report according to their Power Rankings of centers, Gorgui Dieng, Omer Asik, Nerlens Noel and Mozgov are all better centers than JV right now.

Hopefully, J.V. reads this and use it as motivation to come in next year and destroy these guys.

[S.R.]

Centres like Howard, Bogut, Horford, and Jefferson have such different games, even if there are comparable pts/reb numbers. With JV's more limited defensive mobility but strong post efficiency, is he more likely to have a Jefferson or Z-Bo type of career? Can he be better than them defensively? Hibbert always gives me hope - he's not a mobile guy, but with a smart system (and a great defensive team) that maximized his strengths and hid his weaknesses, he was an elite defensive anchor who was at the top of the league for FG% defense at the rim (back when things were still going right for the pacers).

My hope for JV would be to have that Jefferson/Z-Bo quality of post game, while moving a little more in Hibbert's direction defensively. I don't think he can be as good as Hibbert was, but he could develop in that direction in the right system.

With Casey back, this is gonna be such a weird season. Who knows what'll happen.

[Axel]

Centres like Howard, Bogut, Horford, and Jefferson have such different games, even if there are comparable pts/reb numbers. With JV's more limited defensive mobility but strong post efficiency, is he more likely to have a Jefferson or Z-Bo type of career? Can he be better than them defensively? Hibbert always gives me hope - he's not a mobile guy, but with a smart system (and a great defensive team) that maximized his strengths and hid his weaknesses, he was an elite defensive anchor who was at the top of the league for FG% defense at the rim (back when things were still going right for the pacers).

My hope for JV would be to have that Jefferson/Z-Bo quality of post game, while moving a little more in Hibbert's direction defensively. I don't think he can be as good as Hibbert was, but he could develop in that direction in the right system.

With Casey back, this is gonna be such a weird season. Who knows what'll happen.

It is completely impossible to find players that match size, style, age, and production with each other. Best we can do is extrapolate production to find the "range" of impact that a young player could have; then hope for strong development and good health.

I think JV will be a lot better defensively than Al Jeff or Z-Bo.

[Mindlessness]

It is completely impossible to find players that match size, style, age, and production with each other. Best we can do is extrapolate production to find the "range" of impact that a young player could have; then hope for strong development and good health.

I think JV will be a lot better defensively than Al Jeff or Z-Bo.

So do I. I think he needs to trim down on the upper body strength, it slows him down anyways, and work on his core and lower body strength instead. He also needs to work on stamina over the summer.

I'd rather he be a bit more mobile and athletic than he is right now, hopefully we can develop his footwork, decision-making, and passing. I do believe he has good vision when he looks to move the ball.