BoxScoreGeeks predicts 51 wins for Raptors

[Kuh]

They predict 51 wins for us, with a worst case of 44 wins and a best case of 58 wins.

And they even figure we're a 24% chance to finish first in the east! Are these stats heads more optimistic about the Raptors than most of us are?

Here's their full prediction, with a breakdown of contribution by player:
http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/article...aptors-preview

(And before you nitpick about Chuck Hayes's minutes, note that they have done previews like this for every team in the league and/or maybe they know Casey's love of veterans better than we do.)

[iblastoff]

all the more for the raptors to live up to the hype this season.

then again it also has the lakers 'realistically' winning 40.6 games? seriously?

i don't see landry fields playing twice as many minutes as he did last year either.

they also seem to be pretty down on derozan.

"DeRozan will score a lot of points and get too much credit for the team's success"

"DeRozan still isn't worth his extension, but at least he has graduated into a capable starter who doesn't shoot his team completely out of games."

i know some of us can still be critical of his game but that seems overly harsh even to me.

[S.R.]

all the more for the raptors to live up to the hype this season.

then again it also has the lakers 'realistically' winning 40.6 games? seriously?

they also seem to be pretty down on derozan?

"DeRozan will score a lot of points and get too much credit for the team's success"

"DeRozan still isn't worth his extension, but at least he has graduated into a capable starter who doesn't shoot his team completely out of games."

i know some of us can still be critical of his game but that seems overly harsh even to me.

After reading your quotes I refuse to give that article a click. F*ck you, DeRozan haters. That's our job - leave our guy the f*ck alone.

[Superjudge]

Nah, DD thrives on the disrespect, it fuels him in the offseason.

Keep it coming.

[007]

all the more for the raptors to live up to the hype this season.

then again it also has the lakers 'realistically' winning 40.6 games? seriously?

i don't see landry fields playing twice as many minutes as he did last year either.

they also seem to be pretty down on derozan.

"DeRozan will score a lot of points and get too much credit for the team's success"

"DeRozan still isn't worth his extension, but at least he has graduated into a capable starter who doesn't shoot his team completely out of games."

i know some of us can still be critical of his game but that seems overly harsh even to me.

I think most of us are very happy with the amount we're paying him right now.

OF course, we'll have to see what kind of offers he gets in a couple years.


Also, I predicted 51 wins as well.

[Fanchie]

It led me to the Knicks prediction article, and I enjoyed what I read :

It's not just the eye test that makes Bargs look bad. It's actually pretty difficult to find any statistical category in which Bargs is not below average for a big man. One is blocks (he's about average), and the other is personal fouls (but a quick look at how he plays defense might lead you to question whether this is a good thing).

Let's put this in context. Bargs isn't just one of the worst players in the NBA; he is, by some measures, the worst of all time. Usually, terrible players don't get to compete for "worst of all time" honors because it is hard to pile up lots of minutes while playing horrific basketball. In fact, it's hard to keep a roster spot. Ask Adam Morrison, Rashad McCants, or Michael Beasley. Bargnani, though, has somehow managed the trick of playing over 14,000 NBA minutes while producing a spectacular negative 18.9 wins. The list of players with more than 14000 minutes and less than zero wins produced is only 11 players long. Everybody on it but Andrea Bargnani and Al Harrington stem from older eras, when "advanced" analysis meant maybe keeping track of blocks or turnovers. Bargs -18.9 is the lowest WP total on that list, and he is far and away the worst per-minute player (second place isn't even close). Bargs has somehow managed to "produce more losses" than James Edwards' -17.5, despite having played about 10,000 fewer minutes than Edwards. And he's still got at least one more year to go!

[Kuh]

I don't know how to change the thread title. I think the most stunning part of their predictions is:
"Raps have a 24% chance to finish first in the East"

As for Derozan, it comes down to whether you value high-scoring, inefficient shooters:
- some people say 'of course efficiency goes down when you shoot a lot (which is a logical assumption, if you don't look at the stats), but being able to shoot lots is a skill'
- others say 'what a waste, give those shots to someone else' (this is where BoxScoreGeeks falls)

Do you think Derozan is a hero for taking a long two with a hand in his face, or do you think 'damn, I wish he'd pass it into the post to Jonas more for a better quality shot'? If you think he's a hero, that's fine, and ignore the article. If you think he'd do more for the team by passing it around for others to get a better shot, then this article is for you.

Either way, I think we all now agree that DD is a good player. The question is whether he is 'the star' or a solid contributor. And that is sort of academic, because it is a team game, after all ...

[ball4life]

I don't know how to change the thread title. I think the most stunning part of their predictions is:
"Raps have a 24% chance to finish first in the East"

As for Derozan, it comes down to whether you value high-scoring, inefficient shooters:
- some people say 'of course efficiency goes down when you shoot a lot (which is a logical assumption, if you don't look at the stats), but being able to shoot lots is a skill'
- others say 'what a waste, give those shots to someone else' (this is where BoxScoreGeeks falls)

Do you think Derozan is a hero for taking a long two with a hand in his face, or do you think 'damn, I wish he'd pass it into the post to Jonas more for a better quality shot'? If you think he's a hero, that's fine, and ignore the article. If you think he'd do more for the team by passing it around for others to get a better shot, then this article is for you.

Either way, I think we all now agree that DD is a good player. The question is whether he is 'the star' or a solid contributor. And that is sort of academic, because it is a team game, after all ...

you should post here more often. *thumps up*

[007]

Oh my God the Bargs part.

[golden]

I don't know how to change the thread title. I think the most stunning part of their predictions is:
"Raps have a 24% chance to finish first in the East"

As for Derozan, it comes down to whether you value high-scoring, inefficient shooters:
- some people say 'of course efficiency goes down when you shoot a lot (which is a logical assumption, if you don't look at the stats), but being able to shoot lots is a skill'
- others say 'what a waste, give those shots to someone else' (this is where BoxScoreGeeks falls)

Do you think Derozan is a hero for taking a long two with a hand in his face, or do you think 'damn, I wish he'd pass it into the post to Jonas more for a better quality shot'? If you think he's a hero, that's fine, and ignore the article. If you think he'd do more for the team by passing it around for others to get a better shot, then this article is for you.

Either way, I think we all now agree that DD is a good player. The question is whether he is 'the star' or a solid contributor. And that is sort of academic, because it is a team game, after all ...

I value scoring over shooting, and Derozan is a highly efficient scorer at high usage - elite level, in fact.

Scoring > Shooting.

[Scraptor]

I don't know how to change the thread title. I think the most stunning part of their predictions is:
"Raps have a 24% chance to finish first in the East"

As for Derozan, it comes down to whether you value high-scoring, inefficient shooters:
- some people say 'of course efficiency goes down when you shoot a lot (which is a logical assumption, if you don't look at the stats), but being able to shoot lots is a skill'
- others say 'what a waste, give those shots to someone else' (this is where BoxScoreGeeks falls)

Do you think Derozan is a hero for taking a long two with a hand in his face, or do you think 'damn, I wish he'd pass it into the post to Jonas more for a better quality shot'? If you think he's a hero, that's fine, and ignore the article. If you think he'd do more for the team by passing it around for others to get a better shot, then this article is for you.

Either way, I think we all now agree that DD is a good player. The question is whether he is 'the star' or a solid contributor. And that is sort of academic, because it is a team game, after all ...

DeRozan still isn't worth his extension, but at least he has graduated into a capable starter who doesn't shoot his team completely out of games.

This is the only problem I have with boxscoregeeks and WP: it's so black-and-white. It takes efficiency to an almost zealotous level. Derozan isn't worth his extension???

I don't think Derozan is a hero, nor is he a waste. But efficiency does decrease based on usage; that's the central argument of Dean Oliver's skill curves. Each marginal shot attempt a guy like Amir Johnson takes is going to ultimately increase the defensive focus he receives, to the point where his efficiency will suffer. He will start to receive double teams, and he can't put it on the floor and create his own shot. That's why 50% of Derozan's shots are assisted while 72% of Amir's are.

Last year I heard so much talk about how Gordon Hayward is a far superior option to Demar, but when Hayward had to play the number 1 guy, without Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap around to help out, his lauded TS% went from 56.8% over his first three years down to 52.0%, which was below Demar's.

I would prefer Demar get his bigs involved more instead of taking inefficient shots, and I also think he could try to take more efficient shots in general, but I do think he's at least a solid contributor who's easily worth his extension.

Hansbrough and Patterson were great rotation players last year and we're projecting them to be above average next year as well. The craziest rumor I've heard so far is that Tyler Hansbrough has added a three-point shot to his arsenal. I totally want to see this.

Patterson I agree with. And Hansbrough was surprisingly effective. But did he produce wins at double the rate that Demar did last year? (0.196 vs 0.96 per 48). After the Rudy trade, Hansbrough played about 600 minutes the rest of the season. Demar played FOUR TIMES that much. But Hansbrough gets called a great rotation player and Demar isn't worth his contract. "DeRozan will score a lot of points and get too much credit for the team's success." Uhh... sure.

It just takes numbers and views them through the narrowest possible lens. It also ends up feeling like hipster analysis: as if scoring points is so easy that anyone could do it, and anyone who values that has to be a simpleton.

As for the overall prediction.... I'll eat my hat if Chuck Hayes, Landry Fields, and Tyler Hansbrough combine for 2600 minutes. Last year they combined for 1875, and if anything they've all moved down the depth charts. And I doubt every one of the starting 5's minutes is going to drop (22% in total) to make way for Jordan Hamilton and Will Cherry.

Still, even with more realistic minutes predictions and using the same projected WP48, you'd get an even higher win total. 50 wins is probably in the realm of possibility, but a lot will depend on our competition, injuries, and (oof) internal growth.

[psrs1]

Las Vegas has the over/under at 49 wins for the Raptors.

[Kuh]

The Raps have a 24% chance of finishing first in the East ...

Our friends at BoxScoreGeeks feel that the Raptors have a 24% chance of finishing first in the East. It sounds to me like they're more bullish on our chances than even us homers!
http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/article...aptors-preview

Does anyone else feel the same? And does anyone know what the Vegas odds are of our being first in the East? We didn't get a single vote in the recent GMs poll ...

[iblastoff]

already a thread about this.

http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...ns-for-Raptors

[.40 Cal Flakes]

already a thread about this.

http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...ns-for-Raptors

Noted. Threads merged.