The Raptors and the 2015 Draft

[007]

Christian Wood, 6’11” forward, UNLV: “When you’re that skinny and have 15% body fat, it just tells me that you don’t work. His shot’s not broken but I think he takes too many. He’s tall, he’s long. He checks a lot of boxes. He might have as much upside as anyone in this draft. He’s immature, but he’s not a bad kid. He probably sits around and watches cartoons.”

He'd bond well with Ross.

[MixxAOR]

[octothorp]

Realistically and best case scenario are antonyms when it comes to the draft, you can't use them together like they mean the same thing. Best case scenario we get a guy like Butler, it happens in the draft nearly every year in the 20-30 range. Realistically we get a guy who comes off the bench for his NBA career. Remove best case scenario from your sentence and I have no problem with it.

I agree that people wanting something more than a role player at 20 isn't terribly realistic, but it happens often enough that it's not an unreasonable thing to say. It's not that rare to get a long term starter in the 20's, and it's generally more dependent on the depth of the draft class that year than anything else. Just in 2011 starting with pick 19 we got Tobias Harris, Faried, Mirotic, Reggie Jackson and Jimmy Butler to round out the first round. I think this draft has 2011 depth to it.

Yeah, I think a good way to look at it is to start with the numbers from that 538 article (which is based on all drafts from 2000 onward), and then do some math with the actual odds there. For example, for Looney, Woods, and Portis, each has a between 20 and 40% chance of being a bust, roleplayer, or starter. But when you add up the odds, there's a 67% chance that at least one of them will be a starter (and roughly equal odds that at least one of them will be a bust). But only a 3% chance that all three of them will be starters.

Which is why it makes sense for people to debate it so passionately and say who they think is going to rise to the top. Because the group's odds dictate that some of these guys are going to beat their personal odds. You can look at any one of these guys and say he's more probable to be a roleplayer or bust than a starter, but it's also more probable that at least some of them will become starters, than none of them.

[stretch]

Yeah, Dakari at #20! Excellent.

For stats geeks, ESPN projects Dakari as the #6 overall of college players in this draft.

[Mess]

Yeah, Dakari at #20! Excellent.

For stats geeks, ESPN projects Dakari as the #6 overall of college players in this draft.

I think the ESPN one takes into effect the team's success overall which would obviously boost Dakari's rank. I just don't see him at #20. He's big and strong so he should be able to find a role somewhere though.

[Joey]

Whoa ... I just realized the draft is in 2 days. Holy smokes!

[Primer]

A little Canadian flavor for the summer league squad

Phil Scrubb will be playing for the Raptors at Summer League in Las Vegas. And for Grizzlies in Orlando.

— Ryan Wolstat (@WolstatSun) June 23, 2015

[stretch]

I think the ESPN one takes into effect the team's success overall which would obviously boost Dakari's rank. I just don't see him at #20. He's big and strong so he should be able to find a role somewhere though.

That's a total analytics chart by ESPN, nothing there based on UK's record. It's Dakari's rebounding and blocks in just 16 minutes per game that analytically projects well to a NBA future.

I find that chart interesting in that similar ESPN charts, originally formulated by Hollinger have had some success at NBA projections. Having said that I don't put too much faith in analytics, siding more with the old school Charles Barkley view point.

[octothorp]

Yeah, Dakari at #20! Excellent.

For stats geeks, ESPN projects Dakari as the #6 overall of college players in this draft.

I'm a fan of this analysis and have referenced it a few times, but it's important to use the context, rather than just 6th overall. Specifically, he's ranked so high largely because he is least likely to become a bust out of all players. He's somewhere just outside the top ten in likelihood to become a star, at 2.1%, 14th most likely to be a starter, and 2nd most likely to become a role-player. So that's a long way from saying that he's the 6th best player in the draft. So, by those measurements he's better than a lot of players available when the Raptors are picking, but he does fit the mold of high floor, low ceiling somewhat.

[stretch]

I'm a fan of this analysis and have referenced it a few times, but it's important to use the context, rather than just 6th overall. Specifically, he's ranked so high largely because he is least likely to become a bust out of all players. He's somewhere just outside the top ten in likelihood to become a star, at 2.1%, 14th most likely to be a starter, and 2nd most likely to become a role-player. So that's a long way from saying that he's the 6th best player in the draft. So, by those measurements he's better than a lot of players available when the Raptors are picking, but he does fit the mold of high floor, low ceiling somewhat.

The ESPN analysis is up front about comparing and projecting NBA outcomes for NCAA players. It's a great challenge and even a bigger crapshoot trying to figure out how Euro players fit into the mix.

Fwiw, Hollinger had Jimmy Butler at no. 50 in 2011, at least that's what I read on a basketball forum today.

[planetmars]

Whoa ... I just realized the draft is in 2 days. Holy smokes!

I thought it was today and got bummed.. just need two more sleeps

[BobLoblaw]

After looking at Rondae HJ, I like him a lot. I don't think he's a star, but I think at the very least he's a rich man's Mbah a Moute, if he develops no offense. Best case scenario, he's a key role player for a winning team for a decade. Good value at no.20, IMO.

My list would be, only of people that are listed 15 and later by draftexpress:

1. Rondae HJ

2. Portis. I think he's one of the safest picks in the draft, not a star, but another fan favorite role player that helps you for a decade. He won't ever be a top caliber defender I think, nor someone who averages over 10 points. Not athletic enough. But he'll be a good defender who can switch, a smart player who understands both offense and defense. He'll pass, make some mid range jumpers. He'll play hardest on the team and be a great locker room person to have. Kind of Udonis Haslem.

I'm torn between him and Rondae, I think both will be valuable role players, Rondae is athletic, Portis is very smart. I like smart players. I think Portis is safer. But I think Rondae has more upside, maybe even all defense.

3. RJ Hunter. A long guard, shooter, high character, will move the ball. A good backup or maybe even a good replacement for DeMar eventually if there's a trade.

4. Tyus Jones. A nice backup point guard, maybe an ok enough starter when Lowry is hurt. I think his ceiling is Calderon.

5. Justin Anderson. A typical 3D guy who can guard several positions, probably. Probably not elite at either 3 or D, but good at both. All teams want those.

6. Delon Wright, a nice defensive backup point guard, pretty nice fit for Raptors I think.

If all those are gone, I guess I would pick Looney or Oubre, but they'll probably be in D-League for several years.

Grant (point guard) will be a bust I think. I don't like Dekker, I think he's a role player who's not really good at anything in particular.

[Mess]

That's a total analytics chart by ESPN, nothing there based on UK's record. It's Dakari's rebounding and blocks in just 16 minutes per game that analytically projects well to a NBA future.

I find that chart interesting in that similar ESPN charts, originally formulated by Hollinger have had some success at NBA projections. Having said that I don't put too much faith in analytics, siding more with the old school Charles Barkley view point.

Actually it's from 538: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...a-draft-class/

I tracked down what I had read about it from a Kevin Pelton chat on Friday.

Evan (Seattle)

You see 538's draft prospect ranking today? They are real high on Winslow, Dakari Johnson, and the Arizona duo (due to likelihood they won't bust and be solid players).

Kevin Pelton (4:04 PM)

Here's the link: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...a-draft-class/

This model, which was developed by ESPN's Stats & Info Group, tends to mirror Layne Vashro's work more closely than my WARP projections. There's an interesting trend where, for whatever reason, these versions diverge more this year than they did in the past. We'll see which model proves most accurate in that regard.

One thing Neil Paine wasn't able to include in his write-up that is in the introduction we got in-house last week is that there's a team performance factor in the projections. That serves to boost players like Dakari Johnson who are part of good teams, and tends to work against mid-major prospects.

Anyway, still a reach at 20.

[007]

A little Canadian flavor for the summer league squad

Phil Scrubb will be playing for the Raptors at Summer League in Las Vegas. And for Grizzlies in Orlando.

— Ryan Wolstat (@WolstatSun) June 23, 2015

I want him for the D-League just for his name.

[BS10]

SI has us grabbing Trey Lyles @ 20 in their new Mock Draft. Talk about wishful thinking.

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba...mmanuel-mudiay