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A Slightly Premature Conversation About Resigning Lou Williams

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  • #16
    I'd do a one-year overpay deal. If we are keeping him and Amir, we aren't playing in the free agency sandbox. So you give them both huge overpays for 1 year - frees up cap room in 2016 if we decide to dive in then, and you keep their Bird Rights, so if the team continues its success, and we strike out in 2016, we can re-sign them both.

    Meantime, for them, they get a no-trade clause. So ideally it would be something like 1 year 10M for Lou, 1 year 14M for Amir. Then they both hit free agency in the cap boom - but are both one year older, making re-signing them a little easier if we choose to do so (ie if Durant spurns us).
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #17
      DanH wrote: View Post
      I'd do a one-year overpay deal. If we are keeping him and Amir, we aren't playing in the free agency sandbox. So you give them both huge overpays for 1 year - frees up cap room in 2016 if we decide to dive in then, and you keep their Bird Rights, so if the team continues its success, and we strike out in 2016, we can re-sign them both.

      Meantime, for them, they get a no-trade clause. So ideally it would be something like 1 year 10M for Lou, 1 year 14M for Amir. Then they both hit free agency in the cap boom - but are both one year older, making re-signing them a little easier if we choose to do so (ie if Durant spurns us).
      RE: Bolding
      We had our ideas how to come off my last 3 year / $15.68 million deal, the one big year to line me up for the post TV deal deals was talked about. Then Leon mentioned what if you weren't vying for just 6th man money (Jarrett Jack. 6.5mill/yr, O.J Mayo 8mill/yr, or even Gerald Wallace 10.1mill/yr).

      That's when I started thinking about the last time I was in on the 6th Man of the Year Voting. If I could, in my contract year before the TV Deal, finish top 5 or win it. What kind of contract could I get as a 29yr old 10 year vet. That can create my own shot and heat up quick of the bench.

      How many teams would pay for that? What would they pay for that, given they're a wash in cash from a record TV deal? Leon immediately called his Yatche guy, he was thinking about putting a Helipad ontop...
      Last edited by Raptor Jesus; Mon Nov 24, 2014, 03:24 PM.

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      • #18
        I was thinking about the cap and wanted to see what people were saying. I stumbled onto this recent conversation. We have some interesting decisions coming up.
        Here are our expiring contracts:

        Amir Johnson - 7 mil (would like to resign)
        Landry - 6.25 mil (wont resign)
        Chuck - 5.95 mil (wont resign)
        Lou - 5.45 (would like to resign)
        Val - 3.67 (will resign)
        Tyler - 3.3 (wont resign)
        Stiemsma - .9 (wont resign)

        I have a couple questions.
        1. What will Valenciunas be demanding?
        2. What would a fair price for Amir be?
        3. What would a fair price for Lou be?

        I ask because I'm wondering whether or not the Raptors should try to parlay Lou's hot start into a manageable asset.

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        • #19
          Garbo wrote: View Post
          I was thinking about the cap and wanted to see what people were saying. I stumbled onto this recent conversation. We have some interesting decisions coming up.
          Here are our expiring contracts:

          Amir Johnson - 7 mil (would like to resign)
          Landry - 6.25 mil (wont resign)
          Chuck - 5.95 mil (wont resign)
          Lou - 5.45 (would like to resign)
          Val - 3.67 (will resign)
          Tyler - 3.3 (wont resign)
          Stiemsma - .9 (wont resign)

          I have a couple questions.
          1. What will Valenciunas be demanding?
          2. What would a fair price for Amir be?
          3. What would a fair price for Lou be?

          I ask because I'm wondering whether or not the Raptors should try to parlay Lou's hot start into a manageable asset.
          1. Val will be entering 4th season next year. No need to resign this summer. His cap hold will be $11m and change. He will demand a lot more than that. I would guess he is going to get max or pretty darn close.

          2. Might be time to cut the chord with Amir. I wouldn't want to give more than $8m. He is broken. This is sad for me. But he also is best served as a reserve moving forward.

          3. Lou's ceiling is mid level.

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          • #20
            You missed Ross, but he and Val do not need to be extended until 2016. I could see Masai offering a contract extension early like BC did with DeMar. If that was the case I could see Val asking for the max, but I could also see him getting a Vucevic type of contract too. Somewhere around $50M/4 years. Ross will probably get about $30M/4 years. Will be a big test for MU to figure out their contract values and to negotiate good deals with their agents.

            Amir will probably come back.. despite how he's playing I think he should come back. His next contract will be difficult to figure out. I'm hoping it's a McBob type of contract ($23M/4yrs), but that's a low ball deal for Amir.. Another option would be a Jordan Hill type of contract.. $18M/2yrs (second year a team option). That way the Raptors can still be in the running for a high profile free agent in 2016.

            For Lou, to me it depends on how he performs in the playoffs. If he helps us get to the second round, then I'd love to have him back. I could see teams lining up to sign him.. so his value could be too high. Ideally I'd want him back for the Mid-Level but depending on how he does in the playoffs his value could be in the $7-8M range too.

            I'd love to bring both Chuck and Landry back.. but at the minimum.

            I wish Pscho-T and Steamer the best but wouldn't want either back.

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            • #21
              planetmars wrote: View Post
              You missed Ross, but he and Val do not need to be extended until 2016. I could see Masai offering a contract extension early like BC did with DeMar. If that was the case I could see Val asking for the max, but I could also see him getting a Vucevic type of contract too. Somewhere around $50M/4 years. Ross will probably get about $30M/4 years. Will be a big test for MU to figure out their contract values and to negotiate good deals with their agents.

              Amir will probably come back.. despite how he's playing I think he should come back. His next contract will be difficult to figure out. I'm hoping it's a McBob type of contract ($23M/4yrs), but that's a low ball deal for Amir.. Another option would be a Jordan Hill type of contract.. $18M/2yrs (second year a team option). That way the Raptors can still be in the running for a high profile free agent in 2016.

              For Lou, to me it depends on how he performs in the playoffs. If he helps us get to the second round, then I'd love to have him back. I could see teams lining up to sign him.. so his value could be too high. Ideally I'd want him back for the Mid-Level but depending on how he does in the playoffs his value could be in the $7-8M range too.

              I'd love to bring both Chuck and Landry back.. but at the minimum.

              I wish Pscho-T and Steamer the best but wouldn't want either back.
              How funny would it be if Hayes and Fields ends up leaving for better offers.

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              • #22
                raptors999 wrote: View Post
                How funny would it be if Hayes and Fields ends up leaving for better offers.
                Hayes could go ring chasing. I could see a team in the WC wanting his help to match up against M. Gasol or Dwight. Say a team like the Clippers (especially if they lose Jordan).

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                • #23
                  planetmars wrote: View Post
                  Hayes could go ring chasing. I could see a team in the WC wanting his help to match up against M. Gasol or Dwight. Say a team like the Clippers (especially if they lose Jordan).
                  Plan A - Resign DeAndre
                  Plan B - Chuck Hayes

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                  • #24
                    planetmars wrote: View Post
                    You missed Ross, but he and Val do not need to be extended until 2016. I could see Masai offering a contract extension early like BC did with DeMar. If that was the case I could see Val asking for the max, but I could also see him getting a Vucevic type of contract too. Somewhere around $50M/4 years. Ross will probably get about $30M/4 years. Will be a big test for MU to figure out their contract values and to negotiate good deals with their agents.

                    Amir will probably come back.. despite how he's playing I think he should come back. His next contract will be difficult to figure out. I'm hoping it's a McBob type of contract ($23M/4yrs), but that's a low ball deal for Amir.. Another option would be a Jordan Hill type of contract.. $18M/2yrs (second year a team option). That way the Raptors can still be in the running for a high profile free agent in 2016.

                    For Lou, to me it depends on how he performs in the playoffs. If he helps us get to the second round, then I'd love to have him back. I could see teams lining up to sign him.. so his value could be too high. Ideally I'd want him back for the Mid-Level but depending on how he does in the playoffs his value could be in the $7-8M range too.

                    I'd love to bring both Chuck and Landry back.. but at the minimum.

                    I wish Pscho-T and Steamer the best but wouldn't want either back.
                    JV is going to be due for an extension under new TV deal.

                    I agree with the premise but believe, under these circumstances, his new deal would be equivalent of close to 90% of new max - like Vucevic's currently is. (I believe Vucevic's is 4 years and $54M - $13.5M per season).

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                    • #25
                      Obviously too early for this but next year we have DD, KL, TR, JV, GV, JJ, PP, Bruno, Bebe and our 1st.

                      That's 10 players. Obvious holes at starting PF, backup SG and C. I think we should resign Amir and Lou to fill the PF and SG spots. Resign Hayes at the minimum for security, bring Deandre Daniels over and sign a legit backup C (Jordan Hill type guy). Hoping our first rounder is a PG, this puts us at
                      KL/GV/1st
                      DD/Lou
                      TR/JJ/Bruno/DaD
                      Amir/PP
                      JV/free agent/Hayes/Bebe

                      Wouldn't mind us trying to mold Bebe into a 4. Let continuity and internal growth do its part then go at a big FA in the summer or through trade (2 1sts the following summer, 2 sophomores and two rookies on the team. We'll have trade bait)

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                      • #26
                        I'm surprised so few people see it's time to move on from Amir this offseason. He can't stay healthy, and he's got so much mileage on him it's not going to get better, just worse, and likely dramatically so. Starting PF is our weakest spot, and we have backup PF locked up in a younger, healthier, stretchy-the-floorier Patrick Patterson. If we're going to offer someone a 1 year $14M offer I'd rather it be Millsap or Monroe.

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                        • #27
                          i like the crawford deal, before i opened the thread i was thinking crawford. i don't think he will get 4 years. so far masai has only signed 3 year deals with the free agents or 2 years. i think 3/15-18 is a good deal, something like what patterson got.

                          only thing is, i hate signing people who do great in the final year of a contract. i understand he was injured, but risky. so maybe 2 /14-15 makes him one year of hopefully sustained play and then either another resign or a nice contract off the books.

                          some team will throw money at him, start him and then be upset that for his skill set, he is in the perfect situation to succeed right now.

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                          • #28
                            Primer wrote: View Post
                            I'm surprised so few people see it's time to move on from Amir this offseason. He can't stay healthy, and he's got so much mileage on him it's not going to get better, just worse, and likely dramatically so. Starting PF is our weakest spot, and we have backup PF locked up in a younger, healthier, stretchy-the-floorier Patrick Patterson. If we're going to offer someone a 1 year $14M offer I'd rather it be Millsap or Monroe.
                            I agree with this.

                            I love Amir, but he is what he is. A hustle guy who's already reached his ceiling. We need a silky smooth low post scorer to balance the roster. I think Monroe could work (despite his defensive limitations).

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                            • #29
                              Nilanka wrote: View Post
                              I agree with this.

                              I love Amir, but he is what he is. A hustle guy who's already reached his ceiling. We need a silky smooth low post scorer to balance the roster. I think Monroe could work (despite his defensive limitations).
                              I would love Amir back but in a backup bench role which I think he could excel in.
                              "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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                              • #30
                                Nilanka wrote: View Post
                                I agree with this.

                                I love Amir, but he is what he is. A hustle guy who's already reached his ceiling. We need a silky smooth low post scorer to balance the roster. I think Monroe could work (despite his defensive limitations).
                                Especially with large 1 year deals being all the rage before the cap jump, makes way more sense to spend the money on an improvement, not overpay Amir by $7-8M. Amir has been healthy for basically zero games this year. After a full offseason of rest. I cringe to think what his health will be like next year.

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