Game by Game Team Performance

[Uncle_Si]

Is there a way to account for back to backs and 4 games in 5 nights? Etc. basically fatigue I guess...

Otherwise, wicked good post hombre

[Puffer]

This is why the forums are better than the main page. Labour of love.

Care to venture a guess as to how many of the authors and content creators on the front page actually get paid?

[DanH]

Is there a way to account for back to backs and 4 games in 5 nights? Etc. basically fatigue I guess...

Otherwise, wicked good post hombre

It's tricky. In my first draft I hadn't accounted for home/away either, and those two things were problems I wanted to address. Home/away was easy.

Back to backs are tough - I can easily figure when the Raptors are on back to backs. But that would skew the data towards them - if you don't account for the opposition's rest status as well, you could end up labelling games advantages or disadvantages when they are not - for example that game in CLE both teams were on back to backs. You also don't get the expected advantage from a game where the opposition is the only one on a back to back. And things like 3 games in 4 nights would be very difficult to utilize.

The reality is that the source of the data is very useable from a single team perspective - but it would be a huge job to parse 30 teams worth of data to get the back to backs correct.

So I decided to just leave it out, rather than use only half the story. I may look into what it would look like with that half story in there eventually.

[DanH]

Being the RR's Hollinger

Your not ditching us for Memphis too are you?

Never!

Wow great read. I'm taking a stats course at ryerson right now so its cool to see some of the concepts applied to something I'm interested in. Tried to a find holes in it too but came up empty, again great job DanH!

Thanks! Glad it passed the smell test.

DanH, would you just start submitting it the RR Main Page already?! C'mon, we appreciate you including us, but we're just holding you back. Hahaha This is too good man. You spoil us with your analysis.

And for the record, I say your name not like Dan.H., but like Stewey pronounces the H in Cool Whip.

Thanks Joey. For the record, I pronounce your name like Joey.

I usually post stuff like this on the forums because a) I like the feedback loop and ability to update and edit, and b) I also like to be able to share stuff like this on multiple sites to get different types of feedback. Submitting it as a proper article, I'd feel guilty if I also shared it elsewhere.

I actually contribute as a semi-regular at RaptorsHQ - but with stuff like this I don't post it there as an article; if I do I post it as a fan-post, so that I am free to post it here as well. Not that I think anyone else would really care, but it sits better with me this way.

I must admit Dan, that when I am rushed and just want to catch up on the latest and most notable posts to the forum, I quickly scan down the list of new posts to see who started them, and the most recent replies, to see who wrote them. Seeing your name automatically means I stop and read. You are right at the top of a very short list of RR members who get this treatment. Joey is right...you need to appear on the front page.

Thanks for an awesome bit of work.

Well, thanks! Glad you enjoyed it. You must so often be disappointed to open new posts and just see "BRUNOOOOOOO!!!"

whoah this is great! once i re-read this a few more times to fully understand whats going on, i'm sure it'll be even greater!

Glad you liked it! Feel free to shoot any questions my way.

[jacobdr4]

This is incredible, really well written.

[planetmars]

Dan.. this is pretty awesome. Can you extrapolate that projected win-loss to even more teams? Say teams like Cleveland, San Antonio, LAC, Houston, Dallas and Portland? I'd like to see where Toronto ranks in this projection compared to some of the elite teams in the league (and Cleveland who was predicted to end up in first or second in the East).