A tale of two point guards

[TeamEd]

The Wizards' John Wall and the Raptors' Kyle Lowry are both driving PGs who rack up assists and get to the line.

They're both advanced stats darlings with > 20 PERs, > 4.5 Win Shares, stellar NetRtgs, top 20 Real +/- and top 10 WAR.

Wall passes more. Lowry scores more. But otherwise, by the old and the new numbers they look like similar players.

And of course, Lowry and Wall are both Eastern Conference All-Star starters. #NBABallot

But this is all misleading. You wouldn't notice by the numbers, but Lowry and Wall are very different point guards.

How? It's about mentality: When Wall and Lowry are trying to lead their teams to a comeback, they take their offence in opposite directions.

With the Raptors trailing, Lowry shoots more often than he normally does--a healthy 7 per cent more than his overall rate. *

Wall meanwhile actually shoots less. He decreases his shooting rate by 8 per cent when behind. *

In fact, if you rank the 50 players who've shot the most by how their shooting mentality changes in comebacks, Lowry is #1 and Wall is #50--by a fair margin:



They pass differently in comebacks too.

Wall increases his assist rate 9 per cent when the Wizards are trailing and Lowry decreases his by 7 per cent when the Raps are behind. *

Of the 30 NBA players with the most total assists, Wall has the 5th most aggressive passing mentality when trailing.

Lowry meanwhile decreases his assist rate in comebacks more than anyone on the list (except Lebron):



So, even though their games are similar overall, Lowry and Wall are polar opposites when their teams' need them.

In comebacks, Wall becomes a consummate team player while Lowry says "I got this," and goes to the rim.

Funny thing: both approaches work. With Lowry on the court, the Raps are +5.9 in +/-per48 overall and +16.1 when trailing.

Meanwhile, with Wall playing the Wiz are +7.0 in +/-per48 overall and +22 when trailing.

Methodology

UPDATE: These numbers are adjusted against the league average tendency to shoot more and record more assists when trailing. Why exactly there a league average tendency to shoot more when trailing? Who knows, but if I don't adjust then the graph get's shifted much more towards the positive end and it looks all wonky.

The average NBA player is 5.4% more likely to take a true shooting attempt when trailing. He's also 3.9% more likely to record an assist.

So, by the raw unadjusted numbers, Lowry increases his True Shot Attempt rate by 12.3% when trailing while Wall decreases his by only 2.6%.

Wall meanwhile increases his unadjusted assist rate by 13.2 while trailing. Lowry decreases his by just 3.0. Got it?

[raptors999]

The Wizards' John Wall and the Raptors' Kyle Lowry are both driving PGs who rack up assists and get to the line.

They're both advanced stats darlings with > 20 PERs, > 4.5 Win Shares, stellar NetRtgs, top 20 Real +/- and top 10 WAR.

Wall passes more. Lowry scores more. But otherwise, by the old and the new numbers they look like similar players.

And of course, Lowry and Wall are both Eastern Conference All-Star starters. #NBABallot

But this is all misleading. You wouldn't notice by the numbers, but Lowry and Wall are very different point guards.

How? It's about mentality: When Wall and Lowry are trying to lead their teams to a comeback, they take their offence in opposite directions.

With the Raptors trailing, Lowry shoots more often than he normally does--a healthy 7 per cent more than his overall rate.

Wall meanwhile actually shoots less. He decreases his shooting rate by 8 per cent when behind.

In fact, if you rank the 50 players who've shot the most by how their shooting mentality changes in comebacks, Lowry is #1 and Wall is #50--by a fair margin:



They pass differently in comebacks too.

Wall increases his assist rate 9 per cent when the Wizards are trailing and Lowry decreases his by 7 per cent when the Raps are behind.

Of the 30 NBA players with the most total assists, Wall has the 5th most aggressive passing mentality when trailing.

Lowry meanwhile decreases his assist rate in comebacks more than anyone on the list (except Lebron):



So, even though their games are similar overall, Lowry and Wall are polar opposites when their teams' need them.

In comebacks, Wall becomes a consummate team player while Lowry says "I got this," and goes to the rim.

Funny thing: both approaches work. With Lowry on the court, the Raps are +5.9 in +/-per48 overall and +16.1 when trailing.

Meanwhile, with Wall playing the Wiz are +7.0 in +/-per48 overall and +22 when trailing.

Methodology

How much is it the player and how much is it the coach. Wiz have Beal and Pierce to shoot but Casey doesn't trust any players in the 4Q unless its isolation plays. Gay, Demar, Lowry even Lou. Its a pattern.

[bryan colangelo]

Last I checked it's not like Randy Wittman is a coaching mastermind, either. John Wall is simply a more athletic, taller and gifted passer than Lowry. It's just easier for him to create open shots and take over a game with passing.

Video for lulz.

Casey's lack of play calling doesn't help, and Lowry definitely needs to trust his teammates more to hit open shots and make the second pass. But Lowry will never be as gifted or disruptive a creator as Wall. Of course, that doesn't mean Casey and Lowry shouldn't have to work harder to maximize his skill set and balance the offense in the 4th.

[yabadabayolo]

How much is it the player and how much is it the coach. Wiz have Beal and Pierce to shoot but Casey doesn't trust any players in the 4Q unless its isolation plays. Gay, Demar, Lowry even Lou. Its a pattern.

It's not Casey's fault lowry has tunnel vision late in games...

For example just last game took a 3 on 1 three when greivjs was wide open to his right and then jonas was open under the basket. He's lucky he made the basket tho

[planetmars]

It's not Casey's fault lowry has tunnel vision late in games...

For example just last game took a 3 on 1 three when greivjs was wide open to his right and then jonas was open under the basket. He's lucky he made the basket tho

I think it's more Casey's fault. Casey could pull Lowry aside and let him know that what he did was unacceptable. Lowry is a professional and should know better, but Casey can dictate how he wants his team to play. If the guys don't listen then we have an even bigger issue.

A lot of guys under Casey have gone tunnel vision. On this team alone I've seen Lou, GV and DeMar do it. In prior seasons Rudy and Andrea did it as well.

[yabadabayolo]

I think it's more Casey's fault. Casey could pull Lowry aside and let him know that what he did was unacceptable. Lowry is a professional and should know better, but Casey can dictate how he wants his team to play. If the guys don't listen then we have an even bigger issue.

A lot of guys under Casey have gone tunnel vision. On this team alone I've seen Lou, GV and DeMar do it. In prior seasons Rudy and Andrea did it as well.

However by that logic, coaches like Thibs, joerger, blast are the same. I'm not saying Casey is the best coach ever, but he certainly isn't as bad as you guys make him out to be. He's in the second tier of coaching with guys like Joerger Whitman and Vogel

[planetmars]

However by that logic, coaches like Thibs, joerger, blast are the same. I'm not saying Casey is the best coach ever, but he certainly isn't as bad as you guys make him out to be. He's in the second tier of coaching with guys like Joerger Whitman and Vogel

Conley and the Grizz do pass the ball around, so I'm not sure why the reference to Joerger. But yeah Thibs can't coach offense. I agree with that one. I think getting a team with Lebron was the worst possible scenario for Blatt. He has to let the inmates do what they please.

[SamMitchells]

It's not Casey's fault lowry has tunnel vision late in games...

For example just last game took a 3 on 1 three when greivjs was wide open to his right and then jonas was open under the basket. He's lucky he made the basket tho

Hey man good morning.

Just curious, do you think Casey has the right to as PlanetMars said pull a player aside and instruct him on what to do?
Do you think the players respect him enough to obey him in his game plan?

These players make millions of dollars and if im not mistaken, they are forced to listen to the coach, it's compulsive orders.
Perhaps they don't go about it like that because they want chemistry and what not , but it's not like the discussion is going like

Casey : "I want you to run the play I drew up"
Lowry : "No, im taking matters in my own hands"
Casey : "All right, what ever"

it's probably more like

Casey : "Kyle we're going to need you to make those *open shots* "
Lowry : "All right"

[yabadabayolo]

Conley and the Grizz do pass the ball around, so I'm not sure why the reference to Joerger. But yeah Thibs can't coach offense. I agree with that one. I think getting a team with Lebron was the worst possible scenario for Blatt. He has to let the inmates do what they please.

I just added joerger in there cuz Conley and gasol a re both 2 and 3 respectively in the shooters mentality chart. That means they shoot a lot late and don't pass as much

[yabadabayolo]

Hey man good morning.

Just curious, do you think Casey has the right to as PlanetMars said pull a player aside and instruct him on what to do?
Do you think the players respect him enough to obey him in his game plan?

These players make millions of dollars and if im not mistaken, they are forced to listen to the coach, it's compulsive orders.
Perhaps they don't go about it like that because they want chemistry and what not , but it's not like the discussion is going like

Casey : "I want you to run the play I drew up"
Lowry : "No, im taking matters in my own hands"
Casey : "All right, what ever"

it's probably more like

Casey : "Kyle we're going to need you to make those *open shots* "
Lowry : "All right"

Casey doesn't have the balls to go up to a all star starter and tell em, stop hogging the ball. I don't think anyone has the balls to that tbh.

I think the convos go like, "jonas screen lowry then lowry, access the situation from there"

Casey sure as he'll doesn't say, " when jonas sets the screen, shoot that three with 3 blue shirts on ya. Don't pass to gv cuz he's wide open to the right of ya. Go get em fam"

[raptors999]

However by that logic, coaches like Thibs, joerger, blast are the same. I'm not saying Casey is the best coach ever, but he certainly isn't as bad as you guys make him out to be. He's in the second tier of coaching with guys like Joerger Whitman and Vogel

Joerger won 50 games in his first season and is now second in the Western Conf and has won as a head coach in minor leagues.Vogel has never been under .500 and reached the ECF.

Casey's best year is still less than each of their worst years. Whittman won a playoff round.

Monty Williams is better than Casey just looking at record over a career but barely.

[yabadabayolo]

Joerger won 50 games in his first season and is now second in the Western Conf and has won as a head coach in minor leagues.Vogel has never been under .500 and reached the ECF.

Casey's best year is still less than each of their worst years. Whittman won a playoff round.

Monty Williams is better than Casey just looking at record over a career but barely.

K so joerger coached an already stacked Memphis team that won 56 games and reached the west finals the year before in his first year...

Vogel had a pretty good Indiana squad with pg becoming a star for him. And btw he's under 500 this year. He's a good defensive coach but his offensive sets are just as shitty as Casey's...

Casey's is on pace to win minimum 50 this year. Whitman won a playoff series but Casey almost did too by one fucking point. #fuckbrooklyn

And if you truly believe Monty Williams, the doode with anthony 'MVP' Davis as his main player is better than Casey ' the guy who had to coach bargs and the super shitty raps for 3 years'.' This convo is over

[planetmars]

I just added joerger in there cuz Conley and gasol a re both 2 and 3 respectively in the shooters mentality chart. That means they shoot a lot late and don't pass as much

Ahh okay, sorry didn't follow you.. Interestingly Conley is also 4th in the "Passing Mentality" list.

[raptors999]

Ahh okay, sorry didn't follow you.. Interestingly Conley is also 4th in the "Passing Mentality" list.

Its a classic strategy high percentage shot in the post late in games. A six point lead with a >50% scorer requires more than 6 3 pointers at greater than 50%. Figure in the time to get a decent three pointer and that lead is tough. A penetrating guard helps too.

[TeamEd]

I just added joerger in there cuz Conley and gasol a re both 2 and 3 respectively in the shooters mentality chart. That means they shoot a lot late and don't pass as much

Not to be all semantic about it, but the number is looking at attempts with behind in score at anytime, not just late.

If I were to guess, I'd say that coaching has a fair amount to do with it. It's like, when the team trails it will naturally go to the offensive sets it trusts the most to try and get back into the game. For the Raps, that means Kyle with the ball, probably shooting. For the Wiz, it means Wall with the ball, probably passing. For the Grizzlies, it probably means two man play with Gasol and Conley.