Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

How Important is Lou Williams to this team ?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Just to keep things lively, I could share the Wins Produced metric by BoxScoreGeeks:
    http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/tor?season=2014

    They are pretty clear that Williams is the 6th best player on the team, and should be paid as such. Four of the current starters rank ahead of him (i.e., including James Johnson), as does one bench player (Patrick Patterson). So Williams should be paid PPat money.

    I won't start the flame wars by naming the starter who ranks behind Williams.

    Comment


    • #17
      Kuh wrote: View Post
      I won't start the flame wars by naming the starter who ranks behind Williams.
      Hahaha
      The name's Bond, James Bond.

      Comment


      • #18
        Primer wrote: View Post
        Lou is very important but he will be a hot commodity this offseason. He's proven that he's healed from his injury and is back to his 6th man of the year form. Almost any team with cap space will feel like taking a shot at signing him. My hope is Masai wraps it up early in the process before all the teams that strike out on big names come calling with whatever cap space they have left. A team like the Lakers might be willing to overpay just so they get something useful out of free agency.
        Yeah whenever these threads come up, people price aggressively low. So many guys were saying we should cap Lowry at $7-9 million, now it's Amir at $3-5 million, and now ~ $7 million for Lou (which might have been fine three years ago).

        The fact of the matter is that guys like Reggie Jackson, Enes Kanter, and Tristan Thompson all turned down 4year deals between $48mm and $52mm because of the new, bigger cap. Agents are not dumb. Teams will suck it up for one year to secure a guy through the big bump.

        We are probably going to have to pay Lou $10mm/yr or more if we want to keep him. Unfortunately/fortunately he's probably our best isolation scorer (JJ has the best PPP but has a much smaller track record), and that is vital in ways that won't become apparent until/unless he's gone.

        I say we should get a $1mm discount for Drake putting him in a song.

        Comment


        • #19
          Kuh wrote: View Post
          Just to keep things lively, I could share the Wins Produced metric by BoxScoreGeeks:
          http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/tor?season=2014

          They are pretty clear that Williams is the 6th best player on the team, and should be paid as such. Four of the current starters rank ahead of him (i.e., including James Johnson), as does one bench player (Patrick Patterson). So Williams should be paid PPat money.

          I won't start the flame wars by naming the starter who ranks behind Williams.
          It all depends on which advanced stats you want to use. According to 82games, Williams is our best player, and Derozan is 2nd best. Amir is our worst starter but JV is close. I think it shows just how poorly we utilize our big men, and how heavily we utilize our guards. Both sites really like James Johnson and Patrick Patterson.

          http://www.82games.com/1415/1415TOR.HTM

          Comment


          • #20
            Primer wrote: View Post
            It all depends on which advanced stats you want to use. According to 82games, Williams is our best player, and Derozan is 2nd best.
            The pros and cons of each stat type is probably a separate subject.

            I am very cautious of stats like 82games that show no year-on-year consistency for the player. For instance, Williams was the 5-9th best player in Atlanta with 'Simple Ratings' of -0.2, +1.2 and -3.5 respectively. This year he leads Toronto with a +7.9.

            So has Williams magically transformed each year, especially this year going from scrub to allstar? Or does the Simple Rating statistic have flaws?

            (For comparison, Williams WP was .105, .085, .096 and with Toronto it is .156, where .100 is average. That level of consistency makes me feel much more comfortable that the stat is actually describing the player, not other outside factors. It also implies that Williams is having a contract year, and we should expect him to fall off next season.)

            Comment


            • #21
              Kuh wrote: View Post
              Just to keep things lively, I could share the Wins Produced metric by BoxScoreGeeks:
              http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/tor?season=2014

              They are pretty clear that Williams is the 6th best player on the team, and should be paid as such. Four of the current starters rank ahead of him (i.e., including James Johnson), as does one bench player (Patrick Patterson). So Williams should be paid PPat money.

              I won't start the flame wars by naming the starter who ranks behind Williams.
              Alliteration.... and it isn't J

              lol

              Comment


              • #22
                Scraptor wrote: View Post
                The fact of the matter is that guys like Reggie Jackson, Enes Kanter, and Tristan Thompson all turned down 4year deals between $48mm and $52mm because of the new, bigger cap. Agents are not dumb. Teams will suck it up for one year to secure a guy through the big bump.

                We are probably going to have to pay Lou $10mm/yr or more if we want to keep him. Unfortunately/fortunately he's probably our best isolation scorer (JJ has the best PPP but has a much smaller track record), and that is vital in ways that won't become apparent until/unless he's gone.

                I say we should get a $1mm discount for Drake putting him in a song.
                There's one thing going for all those guys you listed and that's age/upside. (Kanter: 22, Tristan: 23, Shmurda: 24)

                No one's giving 10 mil to an undersized, streaky and injury prone guard who's 28. That would be almost twice as much as Jamal Crawford is getting right now. (I'm all for the 1 mil discount though.)

                Comment


                • #23
                  Lou is more important to Toronto due to the style of play Casey has them running.

                  Part of the issue for Williams last year in Atlanta was health but the bigger issue was playing within a system.

                  If Lou has a hot hand I believe he was ordained Raptor Jesus.

                  However if he goes cold, we know what he can do and to the game.

                  He is on a hot streak right now - that is awesome - but lets not lose objectivity. Check his game log. He is just as likely to win you a game as shoot you out of one. For all the heroics the last 2 games he played, he is still shooting just 34% in February.


                  I like Lou and think he is a valuable player to have. His skillset is unique and he will always be able to get a shot off and is always a threat to go off. However the same can be said for Jamal Crawford. Crawford signed a 2 year deal with Portland for BI-Annual exception with player option year two. He opted out then signed a 4 year $21M contract with year 3 and 4 both only guaranteed for $1.5M. Players like Crawford and Lou (and Nate Robinson but he has immaturity issues) don't seem to be valued by GMs.

                  It will indeed be interesting to see what happens with his next contract whether he stays a Raptor or not.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    TRex wrote: View Post
                    Very important. 3rd best player on the team.

                    Re-signing him is a MUST.
                    That is a great point. Lets face it. GV is making something around 6-7 million and he is no where as good as Lou. Lou is our bench and has gotten us many wins. If PP and GV are making 6-7 millions, then I think Lou should be asking for 10.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      tDotted wrote: View Post
                      There's one thing going for all those guys you listed and that's age/upside. (Kanter: 22, Tristan: 23, Shmurda: 24)

                      No one's giving 10 mil to an undersized, streaky and injury prone guard who's 28. That would be almost twice as much as Jamal Crawford is getting right now. (I'm all for the 1 mil discount though.)
                      Crawford was 4 years older than Lou will be when he signed his deal, 32 vs 28. That deal was signed almost three years ago when inflation was not yet a huge problem for these contracts, before news of the new TV deal changed the landscape. It was also considered a team-friendly deal, with bonuses pushing the actual value over $6mm a year. With the cap going up like 50% next year, that is going to look like $10mm pretty quick.

                      Channing Frye got $8mm a year last year. I'm pretty sure that some team with cap space, after striking out on all the RFAs that are going to end up re-signing with their current squads, will end up throwing $10mm a year at Lou.

                      I don't know what our plans are for the rest of our squad, and that should really be the main factor in whether we bring him back. I'd rather upgrade our starting unit before addressing bench scoring.
                      Last edited by Scraptor; Mon Feb 23, 2015, 07:19 PM. Reason: Missed a word

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Kuh wrote: View Post
                        I won't start the flame wars by naming the starter who ranks behind Williams.
                        Oh you mean DeMar DeRozan? Who also happens to be behind Ross?

                        You're talking about that guy right?

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          A 1-for-8 shooting night is supposed to be a rare occurrence (a few times in a career). But Sweet Lou's reached this plateau 4 times in the last 7 games.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Scraptor wrote: View Post
                            Crawford was 4 years older than Lou will be when he signed his deal, 32 vs 28. That deal was signed almost three years ago when inflation was not yet a huge problem for these contracts, before news of the new TV deal changed the landscape. It was also considered a team-friendly deal, with bonuses pushing the actual value over $6mm a year. With the cap going up like 50% next year, that is going to look like $10mm pretty quick.

                            Channing Frye got $8mm a year last year. I'm pretty sure that some team with cap space, after striking out on all the RFAs that are going to end up re-signing with their current squads, will end up throwing $10mm a year at Lou.

                            I don't know what our plans are for the rest of our squad, and that should really be the main factor in whether we bring him back. I'd rather upgrade our starting unit before addressing bench scoring.
                            I'll be shocked if Lou gets offered $10m. Frye as a more unique skill-set as a seven footer who can shoot 3's, and as you said that only got him $8m. There are many more streaky undersized combo guards in the league than 7 footers who can shoot from outside, which is a huge part of the equation. Teams are always looking for quality bigs but there are more guards available than ever. Look at all the pretty good offensive guards who just got shuffled around at the trade deadline.
                            "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              S.R. wrote: View Post
                              I'll be shocked if Lou gets offered $10m. Frye as a more unique skill-set as a seven footer who can shoot 3's, and as you said that only got him $8m. There are many more streaky undersized combo guards in the league than 7 footers who can shoot from outside, which is a huge part of the equation. Teams are always looking for quality bigs but there are more guards available than ever. Look at all the pretty good offensive guards who just got shuffled around at the trade deadline.
                              I'd be shocked too, but I'm pretty sure this offseason will be loaded with shocking contracts. We've just never seen anything like this where the cap is expected to jump $10-$20M. I feel like we can't even make informed predictions until the first few free agents sign deals.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                                ...For all the heroics the last 2 games he played, he is still shooting just 34% in February...
                                Considering probably 2/3 of his shots are 3 pt'ers that probably works out to around 46% FG percentage. Add in his FT's and I would guess he is a net help. His D has been better than TRoss' so I think Lou is worth keeping unless you have to throw a ton of money at him.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X