Why has Tross Regressed?

[jerome]

I remember....

Jerome always thought Joey Graham had a very special talent with the body he had. He could have turned into a JJ/Hansbro fusion.

[mjt20mik]

If we plan on keeping Demar.. I would like to see MU go after Khris Middleton. We should be able to get him at a good price and hes a decent 3 and D player. Then we can bring Ross off the bench.

[Scraptor]

I think you were looking at FG%... Terrence Ross has never shot 42% from long range. He's 38.1% this year and 37.7% career.

To be clear, I'm not knocking 38% from 3. But that's only 48th in the league for guys who have taken 50 attempts this year. And for a guy who doesn't have much else on O and gets completely lost on team D as much as Ross does, that's not going to cut it.

Someone will give Ross a look because of the nature of his skillset, but I think he's a prime candidate to be a journeyman like Charlie V unless he gets his shit together.

[DanH]

To be clear, I'm not knocking 38% from 3. But that's only 48th in the league for guys who have taken 50 attempts this year. And for a guy who doesn't have much else on O and gets completely lost on team D as much as Ross does, that's not going to cut it.

Someone will give Ross a look because of the nature of his skillset, but I think he's a prime candidate to be a journeyman like Charlie V unless he gets his shit together.

Yeah, but 50 attempts is very low - less than an attempt per game. That's Amir Johnson territory.

Looking at guys who shoot it about as often as Ross (300 or more attempts - he is at 350) or more, Ross is 13th on a list of close to 30 guys. So he's average among the elite group that takes a huge volume of three pointers. That's a valuable skill.

[Scraptor]

Yeah, but 50 attempts is very low - less than an attempt per game. That's Amir Johnson territory.

Looking at guys who shoot it about as often as Ross (300 or more attempts - he is at 350) or more, Ross is 13th on a list of close to 30 guys. So he's average among the elite group that takes a huge volume of three pointers. That's a valuable skill.

Oh for sure, but he's not at a Korver/Redick level of 43%+ whereby he can rely on 3point shooting alone. Of the 40 guys who've shot 300 threepointers, he's second last in free-throw draw rate, 2nd last in assist %, 29th in steal %, 23rd in rebound%. And his team D has been really sloppy this year.

I'm just saying his career path could be closer to Eddie House or James Jones than to someone who is a serious contributor if he doesn't shape up. And at this point I'm not entirely sure it's even a matter of system or even motivation any more. He might just not be that good.

[raptors999]

Oh for sure, but he's not at a Korver/Redick level of 43%+ whereby he can rely on 3point shooting alone. Of the 40 guys who've shot 300 threepointers, he's second last in free-throw draw rate, 2nd last in assist %, 29th in steal %, 23rd in rebound%. And his team D has been really sloppy this year.

I'm just saying his career path could be closer to Eddie House or James Jones than to someone who is a serious contributor if he doesn't shape up. And at this point I'm not entirely sure it's even a matter of system or even motivation any more. He might just not be that good.

How many guys that shoot 300 threes draw fouls. It's one or the other unless they play like Harden or Lou

[Bandit]

How many guys that shoot 300 threes draw fouls. It's one or the other unless they play like Harden or Lou

Apparently 38 guys do it better than tross

[octothorp]

I get that there's a lot of reason to question Ross's development curve (as I do myself, particularly in his lack of defensive effort and intensity). But criticizing his 3pt shooting is not one of those things, which is exceptional for his age.
In the history of the 3pt shot, how many players, by the age of 22, had a season in which they shot .395 on at least 4 attempts per game? Just 12, and Ross is one of them. That was last year, of course. This year he's having an 'off year'. One in which, compared to players 23 or under with at least 4 3pt shots per game, his percentage is 55th all time. And just about every single guy on the list ahead of him had a pretty respectable NBA career.
And it's not like he's shown any major regression in his shooting. He slumped in December and January (possibly because of the heavier workload with DeRozan out), but this March was the 2nd best month of his career in terms of 3pt percentage, with a high enough volume to not be a fluke.

His likely floor right now is as a solid 3pt specialist. If he reaches that and adds the defense that he should be capable of, then he's a seriously valuable player, and that's why I continue to consider him a potential part of the core of the team going forward. He's still young, and yet has shown some very strong skills for his age.

[Primer]

Apparently 38 guys do it better than tross

How much better though? Sometimes people post these stats like they're meaningful, but the difference between the most FTA per game and least FTA per game is like 0.5 FTA, so it really doesn't mean shit. I'd like to see the list to know better whether Ross is actually deficient or if we're just splitting hairs.

[Scraptor]

How much better though? Sometimes people post these stats like they're meaningful, but the difference between the most FTA per game and least FTA per game is like 0.5 FTA, so it really doesn't mean shit. I'd like to see the list to know better whether Ross is actually deficient or if we're just splitting hairs.

At 39th on the list, TRoss draws fouls at half the rate of the 29th guy on the list. JJ Redick draws about 3 times as many free throws on a per-36 basis. http://bkref.com/tiny/mgob3

But forget just 3point shooters. In the entire league, among players with 1500 minutes, Ross is the second worst in terms of drawing free throws. http://bkref.com/tiny/GOmCz

And I wouldn't care about this in a vacuum, but it just shows how infrequently Ross mixes up his game. DeMar was out for a good chunk and Ross did absolutely nothing different during that time.

I'm not sure how any of the stuff I'm saying is really controversial... we all watch the games, and as much as I root for our guys to succeed, Ross hasn't shown us very much at all outside of some streaky shooting and a spattering of good man-D.

[raptors999]

At 39th on the list, TRoss draws fouls at half the rate of the 29th guy on the list. JJ Redick draws about 3 times as many free throws on a per-36 basis. http://bkref.com/tiny/mgob3

But forget just 3point shooters. In the entire league, among players with 1500 minutes, Ross is the second worst in terms of drawing free throws. http://bkref.com/tiny/GOmCz

And I wouldn't care about this in a vacuum, but it just shows how infrequently Ross mixes up his game. DeMar was out for a good chunk and Ross did absolutely nothing different during that time.

I'm not sure how any of the stuff I'm saying is really controversial... we all watch the games, and as much as I root for our guys to succeed, Ross hasn't shown us very much at all outside of some streaky shooting and a spattering of good man-D.

Ross isn't good at drawing fouls but he also doesn't playing with the ball or play in an offense that features cutters. GV as a PG not drawing fouls is worse.

[OldSkoolCool]

Why do people even evaluate Ross on his ability to get to the free throw line?

That's like Duncan wasn't a good PF because he doesn't shoot threes.

Shit, just realize what he is supposed to do and evaluate him based on that.

[DogeLover1234]

Why do people even evaluate Ross on his ability to get to the free throw line?

That's like Duncan wasn't a good PF because he doesn't shoot threes.

Shit, just realize what he is supposed to do and evaluate him based on that.

Yeah i kinda agree. If you can shoot threes efficiently you don't NEED to get to the free throw line very often. A good perimeter player must be able to do one of these things but not necessarily both. It would be nice for ross to be more versatile, but he is fine as long as he is a lights out shooter.

[Scraptor]

Why do people even evaluate Ross on his ability to get to the free throw line?

That's like Duncan wasn't a good PF because he doesn't shoot threes.

Shit, just realize what he is supposed to do and evaluate him based on that.

That's fine, but if he can't do anything but shoot 3s and play inconsistent D, how can we really call him a core piece?

Either he's a core piece and we expect him to contribute in more than one way, or he's a specialist who's replaceable.

Consider that despite his 3 point shooting, his TS% is now at 52.2%. And take a look at his comparables based on 3point/FT rate: http://bkref.com/tiny/vsVoD
Cook, Novak, Bullard, Jones... that's the type of game he's been showing for 3 years.

I wish we could definitively say it's just Casey's system, but this was the knock on him in college (see the DX scouting report) and we also didn't see anything different when DeMar was out.

I'd love to see if he can turn things around under a different coach but Masai is going to have a tough call to make. Either TRoss is being mismanaged/misused and is better than he has shown to date, and will thus thrive under a different coach, in which case you keep him; or he is exactly what he has shown to date, at 24 with limited upside, and keeping him on under a different coach will only dissolve whatever remaining trade value he has.

I don't want to sound like I dislike the guy or anything, he seems like a good kid. But I also think it's hard to make an objective assessment that's he's been anything more than relatively underwhelming.

[raptors999]

That's fine, but if he can't do anything but shoot 3s and play inconsistent D, how can we really call him a core piece?

Either he's a core piece and we expect him to contribute in more than one way, or he's a specialist who's replaceable.

Consider that despite his 3 point shooting, his TS% is now at 52.2%. And take a look at his comparables based on 3point/FT rate: http://bkref.com/tiny/vsVoD
Cook, Novak, Bullard, Jones... that's the type of game he's been showing for 3 years.

I wish we could definitively say it's just Casey's system, but this was the knock on him in college (see the DX scouting report) and we also didn't see anything different when DeMar was out.

I'd love to see if he can turn things around under a different coach but Masai is going to have a tough call to make. Either TRoss is being mismanaged/misused and is better than he has shown to date, and will thus thrive under a different coach, in which case you keep him; or he is exactly what he has shown to date, at 24 with limited upside, and keeping him on under a different coach will only dissolve whatever remaining trade value he has.

I don't want to sound like I dislike the guy or anything, he seems like a good kid. But I also think it's hard to make an objective assessment that's he's been anything more than relatively underwhelming.

Novak couldn't consistently get looks in this offense either and took the most 2 pt FGA in his career under Casey. 2Pats has trouble integrating too. Unless a player can take threes off a dribble they won't get consistent looks. Sporadic opportunities doesn't create consistent shooting