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Demar - pre-merge post - looking at Usage% and the impact

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  • #46
    Axel wrote: View Post
    FGA TRB APG SPG BPG TOV PPG FG% eFG% FT% TS%
    Elite Avg 17.1 3.89 4.33 1.36 0.37 2.73 21.21 0.430 0.477 0.830 0.538
    DD in March 18.2 6.0 4.1 0.73 0.13 2.2 23.9 0.438 ---- 0.885 0.546
    High Usage % 14.27 3.75 3.75 1.2 0.2 2.3 17.43 0.43 0.483 0.815 0.538

    Great, thanks! ... Hopefully DeMar carries this version of himself into the playoffs it will certainly be a great boost. Nice to see that he has been playing slightly above the elite average. If Lowry can get back to his December-self (which I doubt, because hell be coming off an injury and stuff, but wouldn't mind being proved wrong) then we can be pretty dangerous, otherwise I don't see us making too much noise. I'm also not convinced that December-Lowry and March-DeRozan can co-exist, but it would be nice.

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    • #47
      Axel wrote: View Post
      Just wanted to add some notes to this.

      In March, DD's Usage% is 29.2. His ORtg is at 111 but his DRtg is 114. DD is also taking (and hitting) more 3 pointers this month than usual. He is also playing a season high 38 mpg.
      How does DRtg work? How much does it depend on team D? Because I dont think he has been too bad, by the eye test, 114 seems almost Calderonian territory. Also yeah with the Usage rate of 29.2% Im not sure he can co-exist at this level with Lowry, though seeing that it is just 0.8% over his season average Im no longer so certain, so scratch that.
      Last edited by mike, prague; Wed Apr 8, 2015, 07:25 AM.

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      • #48
        mike, prague wrote: View Post
        How does DRtg work? How much does it depend on team D? Because I dont think he has been too bad, by the eye test, 114 seems almost Calderonian territory.
        It is points allowed per 100 possessions. I don't know the team rating for March, but we are 108.1 on the season as a team, and Demar is 109.
        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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        • #49
          Axel wrote: View Post
          It is points allowed per 100 possessions. I don't know the team rating for March, but we are 108.1 on the season as a team, and Demar is 109.
          So I guess he has been pulling it down a bit, but averaging as many minutes as he does its to be expected that his average is going to be close to the team average.

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          • #50
            Team defense, especially as the wings are concerned has been pretty brutal for most of the year.

            Wings have had alot of trouble slowing penetration, and havent shown much effort in fighting through screens.

            Comment


            • #51
              Axel wrote: View Post
              Just wanted to add some notes to this.

              In March, DD's Usage% is 29.2. His ORtg is at 111 but his DRtg is 114. DD is also taking (and hitting) more 3 pointers this month than usual. He is also playing a season high 38 mpg.
              111 @ 29.2 is phenomenal. Basically, superstar level. I would hazard a guess that the whole team DRTG in March is skewed by Vasquez starting, but DD's offense is far exceeding his defense.

              BTW, people really undervalue the importance of USG%. The way to look at USG is like "carrying your share of the load" on offense. If you have 5 guys on the court, then each guy should be able to handle 20% USG @ 105 ORTG to be considered an average NBA player. But guys like Amir Johnson are offensively limited, so DD @ 28% USG allows 2Pat or Amir to be at 12% USG with super high ORTG efficiency (say 120 ORTG). So, even if DD is an average SG, or even slightly below (say 103 to 105), the tandem nets out at 110+ ORTG. That's really significant.

              Or another simple way to illustrate the value of usage is to normalize it. DD @ 29.2 % USG & 111 ORTG, is like 29.2/20 x 111 = 162.1 effective ORTG. It's like adding half a player to the offense.

              Conversely, 2Pat is at a phenomenal 122 ORTG, but only 13.1 USG, so he isn't carrying his weight, offensively, so to speak. Normalizing it, you get: 13.1/20 x 122 = 79.9 ORTG. Not so good. He really needs guys like DD and Lou to carry that extra USG load, although 2Pat still has a lot of room to drop in ORTG, while increasing his USG%.

              The trick is balancing and optimizing the USG load. Very high ORTG guys like Amir, JV, JJ and even Hansbro could take some of the USG away from DD for a likely net increase in team ORTG. Ross is troubling - a wing player at only 18.1% USG yet still below league average ORTG (104).

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              • #52
                Axel, can you (or some other enthusiastic person) compare some of the other SGs in the conversation with Demar against those numbers, especially the elite averages.

                Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that averaging out the stats for 7 really good players and then using that as what the "average player" in that group should look like is a bit misleading. It smooths all the stats out and makes one very well rounded, and very good player when in reality I think you'd find that a lot of the players from DD's peer group would be in the same category: very good at certain things, average at others and below the mark in some as well.

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                • #53
                  Fully wrote: View Post
                  Axel, can you (or some other enthusiastic person) compare some of the other SGs in the conversation with Demar against those numbers, especially the elite averages.

                  Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that averaging out the stats for 7 really good players and then using that as what the "average player" in that group should look like is a bit misleading. It smooths all the stats out and makes one very well rounded, and very good player when in reality I think you'd find that a lot of the players from DD's peer group would be in the same category: very good at certain things, average at others and below the mark in some as well.
                  Agreed. My definition of elite scorer is very simple: > 25% USG + > 110 ORTG + > 30MPG. DD was last year, and isn't this year. Run that filter on BBREF and you will almost always get the guys you expect to see every year. It passes the sniff test, generally.

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                  • #54
                    golden wrote: View Post
                    111 @ 29.2 is phenomenal. Basically, superstar level. I would hazard a guess that the whole team DRTG in March is skewed by Vasquez starting, but DD's offense is far exceeding his defense.

                    BTW, people really undervalue the importance of USG%. The way to look at USG is like "carrying your share of the load" on offense. If you have 5 guys on the court, then each guy should be able to handle 20% USG @ 105 ORTG to be considered an average NBA player. But guys like Amir Johnson are offensively limited, so DD @ 28% USG allows 2Pat or Amir to be at 12% USG with super high ORTG efficiency (say 120 ORTG). So, even if DD is an average SG, or even slightly below (say 103 to 105), the tandem nets out at 110+ ORTG. That's really significant.

                    Or another simple way to illustrate the value of usage is to normalize it. DD @ 29.2 % USG & 111 ORTG, is like 29.2/20 x 111 = 162.1 effective ORTG. It's like adding half a player to the offense.

                    Conversely, 2Pat is at a phenomenal 122 ORTG, but only 13.1 USG, so he isn't carrying his weight, offensively, so to speak. Normalizing it, you get: 13.1/20 x 122 = 79.9 ORTG. Not so good. He really needs guys like DD and Lou to carry that extra USG load, although 2Pat still has a lot of room to drop in ORTG, while increasing his USG%.

                    The trick is balancing and optimizing the USG load. Very high ORTG guys like Amir, JV, JJ and even Hansbro could take some of the USG away from DD for a likely net increase in team ORTG. Ross is troubling - a wing player at only 18.1% USG yet still below league average ORTG (104).
                    Higher usage would give a player far more opportunity to produce offensively would it not?

                    I wouldbe curious if demar could maintain an even average level of offensive rating with a lower usage.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      golden wrote: View Post
                      111 @ 29.2 is phenomenal. Basically, superstar level. I would hazard a guess that the whole team DRTG in March is skewed by Vasquez starting, but DD's offense is far exceeding his defense.

                      BTW, people really undervalue the importance of USG%. The way to look at USG is like "carrying your share of the load" on offense. If you have 5 guys on the court, then each guy should be able to handle 20% USG @ 105 ORTG to be considered an average NBA player. But guys like Amir Johnson are offensively limited, so DD @ 28% USG allows 2Pat or Amir to be at 12% USG with super high ORTG efficiency (say 120 ORTG). So, even if DD is an average SG, or even slightly below (say 103 to 105), the tandem nets out at 110+ ORTG. That's really significant.

                      Or another simple way to illustrate the value of usage is to normalize it. DD @ 29.2 % USG & 111 ORTG, is like 29.2/20 x 111 = 162.1 effective ORTG. It's like adding half a player to the offense.

                      Conversely, 2Pat is at a phenomenal 122 ORTG, but only 13.1 USG, so he isn't carrying his weight, offensively, so to speak. Normalizing it, you get: 13.1/20 x 122 = 79.9 ORTG. Not so good. He really needs guys like DD and Lou to carry that extra USG load, although 2Pat still has a lot of room to drop in ORTG, while increasing his USG%.

                      The trick is balancing and optimizing the USG load. Very high ORTG guys like Amir, JV, JJ and even Hansbro could take some of the USG away from DD for a likely net increase in team ORTG. Ross is troubling - a wing player at only 18.1% USG yet still below league average ORTG (104).
                      You make a valid point, but I question whether certain players aren't carrying their share of the load, or if the offensive system is simply designed to minimize their opportunity. Same goes for DeRozan and the high usage players; are they capable of performing well at such a high usage, should they have such high usage, would each player and the team as a whole be better off with a more balanced usage-based attack?
                      Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Wed Apr 8, 2015, 11:56 AM.

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                      • #56
                        CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                        You make a valid point, but I question whether certain players aren't carrying their share of the load, of if the offensive system is simply designed to minimize their opportunity. Same goes for DeRozan and the high usage players; are they capable of performing well at such a high usage, should they have such high usage, would each player and the team as a whole be better off with a more balanced usage-based attack?
                        That's my basketball philosophy. You can have some of the best offensive players in the game, like a prime Kobe Bryant or Carmelo Anthony (HoF calibre instead of borderline All-Star calibre), and half their teammates still hate playing with those guys and there is a constant stream of legitimate questions about whether such high usage is really good for the team or not.

                        The whole team is better off when the ball moves and everybody's involved. I really don't care if one player is able to combine a super high usage rate with an elite offensive rating for one month spurts.

                        In related news, Pau Gasol sure looks happy in Chicago this year....
                        Last edited by S.R.; Wed Apr 8, 2015, 11:57 AM.
                        "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                        • #57
                          Axel wrote: View Post
                          Ok, so I know that this will end up merged into the Everything Demar thread, but I'm hoping mods will let it stick on its own for a day or two.

                          So if you're a sane person and been avoiding the Everything Demar thread lately, kudos to you. Now for the rest of us sickos, there was the lovely back-and-forth between DanH and special1.

                          Quick summary of how I got to my starting point: special1 thinks making Team USA is a worthy attribute to reference. Dan provided a nice detailed post about DD's production level compared to the "average" starter, and then the monthly variance. See here: http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...l=1#post456726

                          Special1 responded by saying that only players worthy of 30 MPG is worth considering and that Usage% is important since "option 1" vs "option 2" gets defended differently. While I completely dismiss the 30 MPG measure (See Defending Champion Spurs MPG from last year), the Usage% is actually a fair comment, so that is my starting point. (NOTE: The original discussion revolved around monthly/streak variance of DD performances, but that is Dan's to tackle. I'm focusing on DD performance compared to comparable averages)

                          Here is the list of the 39 SGs this season, who have averaged at least 25 MPG, omitting guys who haven't played enough games (Alec Burks is the lowest at 27 games). This list is ranked by Usage%.

                                                                                                        
                          Per Game Shooting
                          Player FGA TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS FG% eFG% FT% TS% USG%
                          Kobe Bryant 20.4 5.7 5.6 1.3 0.2 3.7 22.3 .373 .411 .813 .477 35.0
                          Dwyane Wade 17.3 3.5 4.8 1.2 0.3 3.3 21.6 .479 .493 .767 .541 34.7
                          James Harden 18.3 5.7 6.9 1.9 0.7 4.0 27.7 .443 .515 .865 .607 31.4
                          DeMar DeRozan 16.5 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.1 2.3 19.9 .410 .421 .829 .506 28.4
                          Monta Ellis 17.0 2.4 4.1 1.9 0.3 2.4 19.1 .443 .475 .756 .510 28.1
                          Jamal Crawford 13.4 2.0 2.5 0.9 0.2 1.5 16.4 .401 .473 .903 .539 28.0
                          Klay Thompson 16.8 3.2 3.0 1.1 0.8 1.9 21.5 .460 .550 .876 .586 27.5
                          Louis Williams 11.4 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.1 1.3 15.4 .407 .489 .858 .566 26.7
                          Kevin Martin 16.0 3.7 2.2 0.9 0.0 2.0 19.9 .431 .493 .881 .551 26.5
                          Tyreke Evans 14.9 5.3 6.6 1.2 0.5 3.1 16.8 .445 .476 .689 .506 26.2
                          Victor Oladipo 14.8 4.2 4.2 1.6 0.2 2.8 17.6 .437 .473 .833 .528 25.0
                          Eric Bledsoe 12.9 5.4 6.0 1.6 0.6 3.4 17.2 .448 .491 .803 .558 23.8
                          C.J. Miles 11.4 2.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 1.0 12.7 .389 .479 .813 .514 23.5
                          Rodney Stuckey 10.6 3.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 1.7 12.7 .446 .481 .817 .531 23.4
                          Dion Waiters 11.4 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 1.4 11.3 .396 .433 .705 .459 22.3
                          Andrew Wiggins 13.6 4.4 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.1 16.4 .436 .455 .754 .514 22.3
                          Bradley Beal 13.3 3.8 3.2 1.2 0.3 1.9 14.9 .426 .487 .788 .519 22.1
                          Avery Bradley 13.2 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.2 1.4 14.0 .427 .488 .784 .505 21.0
                          Lance Stephenson 9.0 4.6 4.0 0.6 0.1 2.1 8.2 .377 .392 .627 .418 21.0
                          Alec Burks 11.1 4.2 3.0 0.6 0.2 1.9 13.9 .403 .447 .822 .524 20.9
                          J.J. Redick 11.9 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 1.2 16.2 .476 .583 .900 .621 20.8
                          Joe Johnson 13.0 4.8 3.6 0.7 0.2 1.7 14.5 .431 .490 .805 .520 20.6
                          Gerald Henderson 10.4 3.5 2.6 0.6 0.3 1.4 12.0 .439 .467 .861 .520 20.3
                          Wesley Matthews 12.6 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.2 1.4 15.9 .448 .562 .752 .585 19.9
                          Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 12.0 3.1 1.2 1.1 0.2 1.1 12.7 .397 .473 .699 .494 19.6
                          Evan Fournier 10.0 2.6 2.1 0.7 0.0 1.4 11.9 .437 .509 .716 .539 19.6
                          Eric Gordon 11.2 2.6 3.9 0.8 0.2 2.1 13.3 .413 .516 .805 .548 19.6
                          Giannis Antetokounmpo 9.6 6.7 2.5 0.9 1.1 2.2 12.7 .497 .501 .748 .557 19.5
                          Evan Turner 9.1 5.1 5.4 1.0 0.2 2.4 9.5 .427 .451 .756 .483 19.5
                          J.R. Smith 10.9 3.2 2.8 1.2 0.3 1.4 12.2 .417 .524 .750 .538 19.3
                          Arron Afflalo 11.5 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 13.5 .425 .493 .842 .534 19.2
                          Langston Galloway 11.1 4.3 3.2 1.1 0.3 1.3 11.3 .391 .449 .776 .476 19.0
                          Wayne Ellington 9.5 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.8 10.0 .412 .485 .813 .504 18.5
                          Terrence Ross 9.1 2.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.8 9.8 .413 .509 .786 .522 18.1
                          Danny Green 9.3 4.4 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.1 12.1 .441 .570 .869 .600 17.6
                          Ben McLemore 10.0 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.6 11.9 .435 .521 .828 .551 16.8
                          Tony Allen 7.2 4.4 1.4 2.0 0.5 1.4 8.6 .495 .505 .627 .528 16.6
                          Courtney Lee 8.4 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.2 1.1 10.1 .446 .515 .868 .553 15.2
                          Andre Iguodala 6.5 3.4 3.0 1.2 0.3 1.2 8.1 .476 .554 .598 .566 13.4


                          I then ran the numbers of each player for FGA, RPG, APG, SPG, BPG, TOVPG, PPG, FG%, eFG%, FT% and TS% to establish a baseline average for the SG position.

                          You can then compare DD to the "39 avg"

                          FGA TRB APG SPG BPG TOV PPG FG% eFG% FT% TS%
                          39 Avg 12.2 3.71 2.99 1.05 0.308 1.85 14.5 0.4306 0.48972 0.78928 0.53072
                          DD 16.5 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.1 2.3 19.9 0.41 0.421 0.829 0.506
                          Demar's production is obviously higher in some areas (points, rebounds and shot attempts) while suffering in most of the shooting %s and comparable in assists, steals and blocks.

                          Then we take the next step and compare DD to players of comparable Usage%. DD's usage is 28.4% as of this posting.

                          I broke Usage% down as Elite (>27%), High (24%-27%), Norm (20%-24%) and Below (<20%)

                          If you look at just the Elite group, we have Kobe, Wade, Harden, Ellis, Crawford, Klay and DD. We then run the average of that group (including and excluding DD).

                          FGA TRB APG SPG BPG TOV PPG FG% eFG% FT% TS%
                          Elite Avg 17.1 3.89 4.33 1.36 0.37 2.73 21.21 0.430 0.477 0.830 0.538
                          DD 16.5 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.1 2.3 19.9 0.41 0.421 0.829 0.506
                          Elite w/o DD 17.2 3.75 4.48 1.38 0.41 2.8 21.43 0.433 0.486 0.83 0.543
                          We can also compare DD to the High Usage group of Lou Williams, Kevin Martin, Tyreke Evans and Oladipo.

                          DD 16.5 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.1 2.3 19.9 0.41 0.421 0.829 0.506
                          High Usage % 14.27 3.75 3.75 1.2 0.2 2.3 17.43 0.43 0.483 0.815 0.538
                          When compared to other "Elite" Usage % SGs, Demar is below the group average on all categories except Rebounding (where he is a full board above avg), Turn Overs (0.4 better) and FT% (0.001% better).

                          When compared to the High Usage % SGs, Demar is much more in line with the average. He is better with FGA, TRB, PPG and FT%. He is on par for SPG, BPG, and turn overs. He is worse with APG, FG%, eFG% and TS%.

                          Now since, per game totals are affected by minutes and usage as well, I also took a look at the %s for REB, AST, STL, BLK and TOV.

                          In this case:

                          TRB% APG% SPG% BPG% TOV% ORtg DRtg WS WS48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP
                          DD 7.7 16.4 1.8 0.3 10.3 104 109 3.4 0.083 -0.5 -1.5 -2 0
                          39 Avg 6.7 16.4 1.7 0.7 12.1 104 107 3.6 0.083 0.63 -0.64 -0.017 1.097
                          Elite Avg 6.5 23.5 2.1 0.929 11.81 106 106 5.55 0.1116 2.57 -1.057 1.528 2.071
                          When you look at these numbers, you can see the numbers broken down:

                          Good for his position:
                          Rebounding
                          Turn-Overs

                          Average for his position:
                          Assists
                          Steals
                          ORtg
                          WS
                          WS48

                          Poor for his Elite Usage % Status
                          Assists
                          Blocks
                          ORtg
                          DRtg
                          WS
                          WS48
                          OBPM
                          DBPM
                          BPM
                          VORP

                          Poor for even the average SG
                          DRtg
                          OBPM
                          DBPM
                          BPM
                          VORP


                          You can take it all how you please, but everything supports that DD is an average or slightly above average SG when it comes to production. He is being force fed the ball with helps his totals but is far from an elite talent at the SG position. His production closely resembles Lou Williams (with rebounds being the biggest difference), who I don't think anyone would consider an "all-star" talent.

                          But hey, I'm just a fan with too much vested interest. What do I know....

                          ALL that does is shed light on all the other players considered "better" than he is. If he's "average" or "slightly above", and still be top 10 guard, considered a top 2 back court with KL, makes it to the All Star roster, and is putting up those "horrible" numbers, then the ones that "should be ahead of him" need to step their games up, even MORE than DD does. Jus sayin.
                          The NBA Larry O'Brien Trophy's 'Big Decision': "This is hard..(smiling)...but..I've decided to take my talents to North Texas, to join The Dallas Mavericks.


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                          • #58
                            #ProveEm

                            I, personally, want DD on this team. He's better than some "fans" label him. It's the coach that needs to be let go.
                            The NBA Larry O'Brien Trophy's 'Big Decision': "This is hard..(smiling)...but..I've decided to take my talents to North Texas, to join The Dallas Mavericks.


                            "My Gladiator verses VS. what ya verse says"--Adversaree
                            Check out my song "Beat Fighter 2010" (prod. by Pete Cannon)
                            www.myspace.com/adversareeteamfresh
                            http://www.youtube.com/user/adversaree
                            http://twitter.com/#!/GiftOfSpeech (Twitter)

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                            • #59
                              Bear wrote: View Post
                              Higher usage would give a player far more opportunity to produce offensively would it not?

                              I wouldbe curious if demar could maintain an even average level of offensive rating with a lower usage.
                              Yes it would; however, the average player's ORTG would plummet quickly below 105 ORTG when their USG% increases significantly above 20% (say 25%). As your USG% approaches above 25%, it becomes clear that you are a primary option and opposing team defenses begin to scout and game-plan specifically to stop you. So it becomes increasingly harder to maintain even average ORTG (> 105), for very small increases in USG% approaching and above 25%. Only elite scorers can do this. So, even in a 'down' year, DD can maintain just a hair under league average ORTG (105) at an amazing 28.4% USG. That's still very valuable to a team with limited offensive options otherwise to allow the overall unit to perform at a high ORTG level.

                              That said, there is a lot of room left for overall team USG balancing, since our offensive scheme is so distorted towards non-passing, as a 'good thing', by design, to limit turnovers. smdh. If we ran more PnR for JV, cutters with JJ and spot-ups for Ross & 2Pat, that would be a good way to bring DD's USG down to a reasonable level of, say, 25%.

                              In a nutshell: DD, pass the damn ball more, and Casey call more plays that suit the strengths of other players as a first option.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                golden wrote: View Post
                                Yes it would; however, the average player's ORTG would plummet quickly below 105 ORTG when their USG% increases significantly above 20% (say 25%). As your USG% approaches above 25%, it becomes clear that you are a primary option and opposing team defenses begin to scout and game-plan specifically to stop you. So it becomes increasingly harder to maintain even average ORTG (> 105), for very small increases in USG% approaching and above 25%. Only elite scorers can do this. So, even in a 'down' year, DD can maintain just a hair under league average ORTG (105) at an amazing 28.4% USG. That's still very valuable to a team with limited offensive options otherwise to allow the overall unit to perform at a high ORTG level.

                                That said, there is a lot of room left for overall team USG balancing, since our offensive scheme is so distorted towards non-passing, as a 'good thing', by design, to limit turnovers. smdh. If we ran more PnR for JV, cutters with JJ and spot-ups for Ross & 2Pat, that would be a good way to bring DD's USG down to a reasonable level of, say, 25%.

                                In a nutshell: DD, pass the damn ball more, and Casey call more plays that suit the strengths of other players as a first option.
                                Ok, i get what you are saying, but because one has high usage, dies that really mean defenses are trying harder to stop you?

                                With this team and in the past with lots of teams, defenses cam plan to just go single man coverage against a "top usage guy" and force him to beat you as opposed to letting said player gey everyone on team going

                                I know if i was an opposing coach, i would let demar shoot 25 shots bit win the game.

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