Demar - pre-merge post - looking at Usage% and the impact

[Axel]

Ok, so I know that this will end up merged into the Everything Demar thread, but I'm hoping mods will let it stick on its own for a day or two.

So if you're a sane person and been avoiding the Everything Demar thread lately, kudos to you. Now for the rest of us sickos, there was the lovely back-and-forth between DanH and special1.

Quick summary of how I got to my starting point: special1 thinks making Team USA is a worthy attribute to reference. Dan provided a nice detailed post about DD's production level compared to the "average" starter, and then the monthly variance. See here: http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...l=1#post456726

Special1 responded by saying that only players worthy of 30 MPG is worth considering and that Usage% is important since "option 1" vs "option 2" gets defended differently. While I completely dismiss the 30 MPG measure (See Defending Champion Spurs MPG from last year), the Usage% is actually a fair comment, so that is my starting point. (NOTE: The original discussion revolved around monthly/streak variance of DD performances, but that is Dan's to tackle. I'm focusing on DD performance compared to comparable averages)

Here is the list of the 39 SGs this season, who have averaged at least 25 MPG, omitting guys who haven't played enough games (Alec Burks is the lowest at 27 games). This list is ranked by Usage%.

                                                                              

                                         Per Game                Shooting                    

Player                      FGA TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PTS  FG% eFG%  FT%  TS% USG%

Kobe Bryant                20.4 5.7 5.6 1.3 0.2 3.7 22.3 .373 .411 .813 .477 35.0

Dwyane Wade                17.3 3.5 4.8 1.2 0.3 3.3 21.6 .479 .493 .767 .541 34.7

James Harden               18.3 5.7 6.9 1.9 0.7 4.0 27.7 .443 .515 .865 .607 31.4

DeMar DeRozan              16.5 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.1 2.3 19.9 .410 .421 .829 .506 28.4

Monta Ellis                17.0 2.4 4.1 1.9 0.3 2.4 19.1 .443 .475 .756 .510 28.1

Jamal Crawford             13.4 2.0 2.5 0.9 0.2 1.5 16.4 .401 .473 .903 .539 28.0

Klay Thompson              16.8 3.2 3.0 1.1 0.8 1.9 21.5 .460 .550 .876 .586 27.5

Louis Williams             11.4 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.1 1.3 15.4 .407 .489 .858 .566 26.7

Kevin Martin               16.0 3.7 2.2 0.9 0.0 2.0 19.9 .431 .493 .881 .551 26.5

Tyreke Evans               14.9 5.3 6.6 1.2 0.5 3.1 16.8 .445 .476 .689 .506 26.2

Victor Oladipo             14.8 4.2 4.2 1.6 0.2 2.8 17.6 .437 .473 .833 .528 25.0

Eric Bledsoe               12.9 5.4 6.0 1.6 0.6 3.4 17.2 .448 .491 .803 .558 23.8

C.J. Miles                 11.4 2.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 1.0 12.7 .389 .479 .813 .514 23.5

Rodney Stuckey             10.6 3.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 1.7 12.7 .446 .481 .817 .531 23.4

Dion Waiters               11.4 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 1.4 11.3 .396 .433 .705 .459 22.3

Andrew Wiggins             13.6 4.4 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.1 16.4 .436 .455 .754 .514 22.3

Bradley Beal               13.3 3.8 3.2 1.2 0.3 1.9 14.9 .426 .487 .788 .519 22.1

Avery Bradley              13.2 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.2 1.4 14.0 .427 .488 .784 .505 21.0

Lance Stephenson            9.0 4.6 4.0 0.6 0.1 2.1  8.2 .377 .392 .627 .418 21.0

Alec Burks                 11.1 4.2 3.0 0.6 0.2 1.9 13.9 .403 .447 .822 .524 20.9

J.J. Redick                11.9 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 1.2 16.2 .476 .583 .900 .621 20.8

Joe Johnson                13.0 4.8 3.6 0.7 0.2 1.7 14.5 .431 .490 .805 .520 20.6

Gerald Henderson           10.4 3.5 2.6 0.6 0.3 1.4 12.0 .439 .467 .861 .520 20.3

Wesley Matthews            12.6 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.2 1.4 15.9 .448 .562 .752 .585 19.9

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope   12.0 3.1 1.2 1.1 0.2 1.1 12.7 .397 .473 .699 .494 19.6

Evan Fournier              10.0 2.6 2.1 0.7 0.0 1.4 11.9 .437 .509 .716 .539 19.6

Eric Gordon                11.2 2.6 3.9 0.8 0.2 2.1 13.3 .413 .516 .805 .548 19.6

Giannis Antetokounmpo       9.6 6.7 2.5 0.9 1.1 2.2 12.7 .497 .501 .748 .557 19.5

Evan Turner                 9.1 5.1 5.4 1.0 0.2 2.4  9.5 .427 .451 .756 .483 19.5

J.R. Smith                 10.9 3.2 2.8 1.2 0.3 1.4 12.2 .417 .524 .750 .538 19.3

Arron Afflalo              11.5 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 13.5 .425 .493 .842 .534 19.2

Langston Galloway          11.1 4.3 3.2 1.1 0.3 1.3 11.3 .391 .449 .776 .476 19.0

Wayne Ellington             9.5 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.8 10.0 .412 .485 .813 .504 18.5

Terrence Ross               9.1 2.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.8  9.8 .413 .509 .786 .522 18.1

Danny Green                 9.3 4.4 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.1 12.1 .441 .570 .869 .600 17.6

Ben McLemore               10.0 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.6 11.9 .435 .521 .828 .551 16.8

Tony Allen                  7.2 4.4 1.4 2.0 0.5 1.4  8.6 .495 .505 .627 .528 16.6

Courtney Lee                8.4 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.2 1.1 10.1 .446 .515 .868 .553 15.2

Andre Iguodala              6.5 3.4 3.0 1.2 0.3 1.2  8.1 .476 .554 .598 .566 13.4

I then ran the numbers of each player for FGA, RPG, APG, SPG, BPG, TOVPG, PPG, FG%, eFG%, FT% and TS% to establish a baseline average for the SG position.

You can then compare DD to the "39 avg"

	FGA	TRB	APG	SPG	BPG	TOV	PPG	FG%	eFG%	FT%	TS%
39 Avg	12.2	3.71	2.99	1.05	0.308	1.85	14.5	0.4306	0.48972	0.78928	0.53072
DD	16.5	4.7	3.4	1.2	0.1	2.3	19.9	0.41	0.421	0.829	0.506

Demar's production is obviously higher in some areas (points, rebounds and shot attempts) while suffering in most of the shooting %s and comparable in assists, steals and blocks.

Then we take the next step and compare DD to players of comparable Usage%. DD's usage is 28.4% as of this posting.

I broke Usage% down as Elite (>27%), High (24%-27%), Norm (20%-24%) and Below (<20%)

If you look at just the Elite group, we have Kobe, Wade, Harden, Ellis, Crawford, Klay and DD. We then run the average of that group (including and excluding DD).

	FGA	TRB	APG	SPG	BPG	TOV	PPG	FG%	eFG%	FT%	TS%
Elite Avg	17.1	3.89	4.33	1.36	0.37	2.73	21.21	0.430	0.477	0.830	0.538
DD	16.5	4.7	3.4	1.2	0.1	2.3	19.9	0.41	0.421	0.829	0.506
Elite w/o DD	17.2	3.75	4.48	1.38	0.41	2.8	21.43	0.433	0.486	0.83	0.543

We can also compare DD to the High Usage group of Lou Williams, Kevin Martin, Tyreke Evans and Oladipo.

DD	16.5	4.7	3.4	1.2	0.1	2.3	19.9	0.41	0.421	0.829	0.506
High Usage %	14.27	3.75	3.75	1.2	0.2	2.3	17.43	0.43	0.483	0.815	0.538

When compared to other "Elite" Usage % SGs, Demar is below the group average on all categories except Rebounding (where he is a full board above avg), Turn Overs (0.4 better) and FT% (0.001% better).

When compared to the High Usage % SGs, Demar is much more in line with the average. He is better with FGA, TRB, PPG and FT%. He is on par for SPG, BPG, and turn overs. He is worse with APG, FG%, eFG% and TS%.

Now since, per game totals are affected by minutes and usage as well, I also took a look at the %s for REB, AST, STL, BLK and TOV.

In this case:

	TRB%	APG%	SPG%	BPG%	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	WS	WS48	OBPM	DBPM	BPM	VORP
DD	7.7	16.4	1.8	0.3	10.3	104	109	3.4	0.083	-0.5	-1.5	-2	0
39 Avg	6.7	16.4	1.7	0.7	12.1	104	107	3.6	0.083	0.63	-0.64	-0.017	1.097
Elite Avg	6.5	23.5	2.1	0.929	11.81	106	106	5.55	0.1116	2.57	-1.057	1.528	2.071

When you look at these numbers, you can see the numbers broken down:

Good for his position:
Rebounding
Turn-Overs

Average for his position:
Assists
Steals
ORtg
WS
WS48

Poor for his Elite Usage % Status
Assists
Blocks
ORtg
DRtg
WS
WS48
OBPM
DBPM
BPM
VORP

Poor for even the average SG
DRtg
OBPM
DBPM
BPM
VORP


You can take it all how you please, but everything supports that DD is an average or slightly above average SG when it comes to production. He is being force fed the ball with helps his totals but is far from an elite talent at the SG position. His production closely resembles Lou Williams (with rebounds being the biggest difference), who I don't think anyone would consider an "all-star" talent.

But hey, I'm just a fan with too much vested interest. What do I know....

[JawsGT]

Well done. His usage % should come down, and I think most would agree on that even without the analysis. And I believe an actual offensive system that runs plays and sets would improve the stats he looks poor on. I think many of the players in the analysis would fair poorly in our system. He isn't elite, which is obvious but there is good evidence of that here. He really needs to get more assists with such high usage, but again, the system we run isn't a pass heavy, assist friendly scheme anyways so what ya do?

I should have never removed my signature. It still applies now like it did when we had Rudy...it's not the players, it's the way we play!!

[Axel]

So since I have a random person asking me such pertinent questions through PM as:
- Did Derozan eat your dog?
- If you used last season's numbers, it's probably better

I'm going to add another part showing DD's past numbers, but compared to this year's averages (cause it would take a long time to re-create last year's averages for the position).

                                       

Season     FGA TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PTS

2012-13   15.0 3.9 2.5 0.9 0.3 1.8 18.1

2013-14   17.8 4.3 4.0 1.1 0.4 2.2 22.7

	FGA	TRB	APG	SPG	BPG	TOV	PPG	FG%	eFG%	FT%	TS%
39 Avg	12.2	3.71	2.99	1.05	0.308	1.85	14.5	0.4306	0.48972	0.78928	0.53072
DD	16.5	4.7	3.4	1.2	0.1	2.3	19.9	0.41	0.421	0.829	0.506

                                                                          

Season     TS% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%  WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM  BPM VORP

2011-12   .503  5.6 10.8  1.2  0.6 10.5 25.0 2.5  .054 -1.4 -1.5 -2.8 -0.5

2012-13   .523  6.3 12.0  1.3  0.6  9.6 24.2 4.7  .075 -0.5 -1.4 -1.9  0.1

2013-14   .532  6.6 18.9  1.5  0.7  9.5 28.0 8.8  .141  1.4 -0.7  0.7  2.0

	TRB%	APG%	SPG%	BPG%	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	WS	WS48	OBPM	DBPM	BPM	VORP
DD	7.7	16.4	1.8	0.3	10.3	104	109	3.4	0.083	-0.5	-1.5	-2	0
39 Avg	6.7	16.4	1.7	0.7	12.1	104	107	3.6	0.083	0.63	-0.64	-0.017	1.097
Elite Avg	6.5	23.5	2.1	0.929	11.81	106	106	5.55	0.1116	2.57	-1.057	1.528	2.071

[Nilanka]

So since I have a random person asking me such pertinent questions through PM as:
- Did Derozan eat your dog?
- If you used last season's numbers, it's probably better

I'm going to add another part showing DD's past numbers, but compared to this year's averages (cause it would take a long time to re-create last year's averages for the position).

But you didn't answer the part about the dog....

[Axel]

But you didn't answer the part about the dog....

Of course I did:

"Did you seriously create an account today for the sole purpose of sending me this message?

If my dog was named "good-basketball-that-is-enjoyable-to-watch-and-leads-to-sustainable-winning", then yes....yes he did. He ate my wiener dog."

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Great post Axel!

I think this evidence is yet another indictment of DC and his offensive game-plan. Why implement a system that requires individual superstars to be successful, when the team's greatest strength is its collective depth?

Even DeRozan's most vocal supporters have pointed out two key observations over the past couple seasons:

1. DeRozan isn't a superstar and is best-suited as a #2/3 type player, who shouldn't be expected or entrusted to carry the offensive load (which is when he tends to force things and be at his most inefficient, ironically).

2. DeRozan isn't a one-dimensional, inefficient scorer because he's a bad player, but because he's been tasked with playing a bad role; he has to take those bad/forced shots for the good of the offense (this usually gets dismissed, but the more I see DC ruin players and/or force them to play a role/style that is out of their comfort zone and away from their strengths, I'm inclined to shift more of the blame to DC).


I really would be curious to see DeRozan play in a more structured, team-oriented system, for another coach. I used to put the blame on DeRozan, but I believe a lot of the blame should be placed on DC. Having said that, a truly great player would be able to consistently excel despite playing in a faulty system.

[Other Scott]

I think this type of analysis does DeMar a teensy bit of disservice, as you compare him either to the average player's low usage numbers or the elite players high usage numbers, and either way he's going to fall short. To get a fair comparison, you would have to compare him to the average players' high usage numbers, which don't actually exist. Because outside of DeMar, average players don't typically get that sort of usage.

That said, there's no doubt that DeMar has had a rough year compared to last year. Last year he was close to a top 5 SG in the league, this year he's probably hovering around the 15 number. It's easy to say last year is a blip with all the years that came before, but I'm more inclined to be optimistic to say the truth is somewhere in between. And he's been fantastic the past month.

It sort of boggles the mind how this team has been winning so many games. DeMar's been average, Lowry's been average or below or injured since the All-Star break (granted, the team has been mediocre since the All-Star break), Amir hasn't had the same mobility he has had previously, Ross has regressed, Val was called the most disappointing Raptor by someone (which is hogwash). That's the entire start of season starting lineup.

While in general I think the coaching has been bad from a tactical standpoint, I can't see much scenario where better coaching is going to get more than 4-5 wins with this team. There's just not that much talent here unless we get peak DeRozan and Lowry, and Val is actually able to do the things he's bad at well enough to get opportunities to do the things he's good at.

There's work to be done here to get the right pieces fitting together.

[golden]

Nice work, Axel. The only thing missing is to compare DD's stats this season vs. last season. I think you'll find that DD was, in fact, offensively elite last season. I use a pretty simple quick & dirty test. ORTG & USG%. Any player with an ORTG > 110 at a USG% > 25% is a top flight offensive player.

Last season DD was at 110 ORTG with 28% USG, which is spectacular. This year he's at 104 ORTG with 28.4% USG which is not too bad, but not 'true' all-star level either.

Normalized league average should be: 105 ORTG @ 20% USG, with ORTG dropping off rapidly after exceeding 20% USG.

[Axel]

I think this type of analysis does DeMar a teensy bit of disservice,

Based on the amount of posts, stats and comments that get thrown around here, I can live with a "teensy bit."

Demar might be the round peg in the square hole, and that does fall on Casey as well (plenty hold him accountable in the "#FireCasey" thread) but ultimately, Demar is responsible for the actions he takes on the court. Casey can't force Demar to not pass, or to force up a contested jumper after several failed pump fakes, or to complain to the ref instead of fighting for the rebound or getting back on D.

Casey should be fired, but Demar owns his actions on the court. That's what #provem should be about.

[Nilanka]

Of course I did:

"Did you seriously create an account today for the sole purpose of sending me this message?

If my dog was named "good-basketball-that-is-enjoyable-to-watch-and-leads-to-sustainable-winning", then yes....yes he did. He ate my wiener dog."

#ProveEm

[slaw]

I think this type of analysis does DeMar a teensy bit of disservice, as you compare him either to the average player's low usage numbers or the elite players high usage numbers, and either way he's going to fall short. To get a fair comparison, you would have to compare him to the average players' high usage numbers, which don't actually exist. Because outside of DeMar, average players don't typically get that sort of usage.

The comps for Demar are guys like Ellis, Crawford, Evans, Martin. Oddly enough, if you look at his salary, he makes just slightly more than those guys, save Evans. How strange. To my shock, he doesn't make James Harden or Dwayne Wade money. It's baffling as to why that is. It's almost as if his level of play is reflected in his salary or something based on comparable players. If I didn't know better from reading Dave Berri and a lot of the advanced stats guys, it might even appear to me as if the management teams of NBA organizations actually do have a way to value players and might know what they are doing....

[Axel]

	FGA	TRB	APG	SPG	BPG	TOV	PPG	FG%	eFG%	FT%	TS%
Elite Avg	17.1	3.89	4.33	1.36	0.37	2.73	21.21	0.430	0.477	0.830	0.538
DD	16.5	4.7	3.4	1.2	0.1	2.3	19.9	0.41	0.421	0.829	0.506
DD last year	17.8	4.3	4.0	1.1	0.4	2.2	22.7	0.429	0.452	0.824	0.532

	TRB%	APG%	SPG%	BPG%	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	WS	WS48	OBPM	DBPM	BPM	VORP
DD	7.7	16.4	1.8	0.3	10.3	104	109	3.4	0.083	-0.5	-1.5	-2	0
Elite Avg	6.5	23.5	2.1	0.929	11.81	106	106	5.55	0.1116	2.57	-1.057	1.528	2.071
DD last year	6.6	18.9	1.5	0.7	9.5	110	107	8.8	.141	1.4	-0.7	0.7	2.0

[Primer]

	FGA	TRB	APG	SPG	BPG	TOV	PPG	FG%	eFG%	FT%	TS%
Elite Avg	17.1	3.89	4.33	1.36	0.37	2.73	21.21	0.430	0.477	0.830	0.538
DD	16.5	4.7	3.4	1.2	0.1	2.3	19.9	0.41	0.421	0.829	0.506
DD last year	17.8	4.3	4.0	1.1	0.4	2.2	22.7	0.429	0.452	0.824	0.532

	TRB%	APG%	SPG%	BPG%	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	WS	WS48	OBPM	DBPM	BPM	VORP
DD	7.7	16.4	1.8	0.3	10.3	104	109	3.4	0.083	-0.5	-1.5	-2	0
Elite Avg	6.5	23.5	2.1	0.929	11.81	106	106	5.55	0.1116	2.57	-1.057	1.528	2.071
DD last year	6.6	18.9	1.5	0.7	9.5	110	107	8.8	.141	1.4	-0.7	0.7	2.0

So basically, DD was elite last year and definitely deserved his all star nod. Unfortunately, his production this year has dropped off dramatically. From my eye test, I point to the change in offensive system this year to last. Just goes to show that DD can be a very useful elite player, the coach just has to use him (and the rest of the team) correctly. #Firecasey

[Axel]

So basically, DD was elite last year and definitely deserved his all star nod. Unfortunately, his production this year has dropped off dramatically. From my eye test, I point to the change in offensive system this year to last. Just goes to show that DD can be a very useful elite player, the coach just has to use him (and the rest of the team) correctly. #Firecasey

DD was elite last year. No one will really say otherwise.

But, and it is a big but, is that a progress or a one-off season? Based on everything else, I'm more in the "one time deal" camp.

I think under a different coach/system, DD can be an above average SG, but not a great one.

[hotfuzz]

The comps for Demar are guys like Ellis, Crawford, Evans, Martin. Oddly enough, if you look at his salary, he makes just slightly more than those guys, save Evans. How strange. To my shock, he doesn't make James Harden or Dwayne Wade money. It's baffling as to why that is. It's almost as if his level of play is reflected in his salary or something based on comparable players. If I didn't know better from reading Dave Berri and a lot of the advanced stats guys, it might even appear to me as if the management teams of NBA organizations actually do have a way to value players and might know what they are doing....

Which is a failure on management's part then.