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Demar - pre-merge post - looking at Usage% and the impact

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  • #16
    hotfuzz wrote: View Post
    Which is a failure on management's part then.
    I don't follow. The team is paying him what he's worth. The fact the Raptors don't have a #1 option is the fault of mismanagement through the BC years but it's hard to put it on current management to reinvent a team in 2 years.

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    • #17
      slaw wrote: View Post
      I don't follow. The team is paying him what he's worth. The fact the Raptors don't have a #1 option is the fault of mismanagement through the BC years but it's hard to put it on current management to reinvent a team in 2 years.
      But his role is on the coach AND Derozan. Casey isn't using mind control. Once you step on the court, you own your actions. DD can pass the ball and defend without being told to.
      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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      • #18
        This is some awesome stuff. I don't post here often (at all), but just wanted to say great work and thanks for taking the time to do this.

        This really goes in-line with what a lot of "haters" have been saying for awhile. Demar is not a 1st option and probably shouldn't be a 2nd option, unless a new coach with a better structured system comes in. He is given (too much) free will to shoot himself in and out of funks and a lot of his numbers has to do with the fact that he has such a high USG%. He basically touches the ball on every single play and is able to do whatever he wants with it. I think in a better system, Demar would be a much more efficient player, but probably see his base stats take a bit of a hit.

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        • #19
          Axel wrote: View Post
          But his role is on the coach AND Derozan. Casey isn't using mind control. Once you step on the court, you own your actions. DD can pass the ball and defend without being told to.
          Yes and no

          Casey is a lunatic imo, when DD 1st came back he was having great passing games. But in a post game presser Casey said DeMar needs to score/take shots or he'll bench him.

          So when DD was trying to get his teammates more involved his coach is telling to stop passing the ball which is insane.


          Casey gave everyone a role card and he will never change or adjust them. That's why we see Lou taking a billion shots every game, JV gets ignored every game, Ross only shoots 3s etc

          Until Casey is gone it'll be very hard to evaluate players on this team.
          "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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          • #20
            MACK11 wrote: View Post
            Yes and no

            Casey is a lunatic imo, when DD 1st came back he was having great passing games. But in a post game presser Casey said DeMar needs to score/take shots or he'll bench him.

            So when DD was trying to get his teammates more involved his coach is telling to stop passing the ball which is insane.


            Casey gave everyone a role card and he will never change or adjust them. That's why we see Lou taking a billion shots every game, JV gets ignored every game, Ross only shoots 3s etc

            Until Casey is gone it'll be very hard to evaluate players on this team.
            I very much doubt that Casey would have actually benched DD for passing the ball (he'll probably reveal that he has a DD tattoo any day now), but I agree with the general premise that Casey is the #1 problem.

            But remember, DD's game on offence hasn't really changed and that pre-dates Casey.
            Heir, Prince of Cambridge

            If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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            • #21
              Axel wrote: View Post
              I very much doubt that Casey would have actually benched DD for passing the ball (he'll probably reveal that he has a DD tattoo any day now), but I agree with the general premise that Casey is the #1 problem.

              But remember, DD's game on offence hasn't really changed and that pre-dates Casey.
              Demar hasn't been in the league long enough for anything to predate Casey. Casey has been his only coach pretty much

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              • #22
                Axel wrote: View Post
                DD was elite last year. No one will really say otherwise.

                But, and it is a big but, is that a progress or a one-off season? Based on everything else, I'm more in the "one time deal" camp.

                I think under a different coach/system, DD can be an above average SG, but not a great one.
                I was just looking at DD's shooting stats last year compared to this year. Three things stand out.

                1.) Last year DD shot .182 of his FGA from 10-16ft. That is essentially the same amount he shot every year, until this year, where he shot .226 of his FGA from 10-16ft. So DD dramatically increased his 10-16ft shot attempts, which are notoriously difficult to make and probably the least efficient shot in the game.

                2.) Last year DD had a career high of 3pt attempts, .149 of his FGA. This year, his 3pt attempts dropped dramatically to .083 of his FGA (his lowest 3pt attempts since 2010). He's essentially taking half as many 3pt shots as last year, which is probably related to point 1, where he increased his 10-16ft attempts at the expense of his 3pt attempts. Swapping one of the most efficient shots in basketball (3pt shot) for the least efficient (10-16ft attempt) seems like a great way to lower your efficiency.

                3.) DD's %Assisted 2-Pt FG last year was .465. This year it has dropped to a career low of .431. This screams lack of ball movement, and heavy iso (also what the eye test says).

                Now, this is just my opinion based on these stats and the eye test, but I think the change in offense this year to relying on iso instead of running horns has led to the dramatic decrease in 3pt attempts, the dramatic increase in long pull up jumpers, and the lack of assisted FG's. Which leads me to believe DD's decline this season is more tied to the offensive system then DD having a freak good year last year.

                Main point, new coach with a ball movement based offensive system and I think Demar returns to 2013-14 form.

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                • #23
                  Primer wrote: View Post
                  I was just looking at DD's shooting stats last year compared to this year. Three things stand out.

                  1.) Last year DD shot .182 of his FGA from 10-16ft. That is essentially the same amount he shot every year, until this year, where he shot .226 of his FGA from 10-16ft. So DD dramatically increased his 10-16ft shot attempts, which are notoriously difficult to make and probably the least efficient shot in the game.

                  2.) Last year DD had a career high of 3pt attempts, .149 of his FGA. This year, his 3pt attempts dropped dramatically to .083 of his FGA (his lowest 3pt attempts since 2010). He's essentially taking half as many 3pt shots as last year, which is probably related to point 1, where he increased his 10-16ft attempts at the expense of his 3pt attempts. Swapping one of the most efficient shots in basketball (3pt shot) for the least efficient (10-16ft attempt) seems like a great way to lower your efficiency.

                  3.) DD's %Assisted 2-Pt FG last year was .465. This year it has dropped to a career low of .431. This screams lack of ball movement, and heavy iso (also what the eye test says).

                  Now, this is just my opinion based on these stats and the eye test, but I think the change in offense this year to relying on iso instead of running horns has led to the dramatic decrease in 3pt attempts, the dramatic increase in long pull up jumpers, and the lack of assisted FG's. Which leads me to believe DD's decline this season is more tied to the offensive system then DD having a freak good year last year.

                  Main point, new coach with a ball movement based offensive system and I think Demar returns to 2013-14 form.
                  IMHO it isn't really a system issue. Most coaches would see that Demar is taking bad shots and try to get him to take better ones. Often players aren't even aware that they are being pushed into bad shots by defenses. Also reluctant three point shooters need to be forced to stop settling. It isnt even guys going hero-ball and are grateful for the good coaching.

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                  • #24
                    Primer wrote: View Post
                    I was just looking at DD's shooting stats last year compared to this year. Three things stand out.

                    1.) Last year DD shot .182 of his FGA from 10-16ft. That is essentially the same amount he shot every year, until this year, where he shot .226 of his FGA from 10-16ft. So DD dramatically increased his 10-16ft shot attempts, which are notoriously difficult to make and probably the least efficient shot in the game.

                    2.) Last year DD had a career high of 3pt attempts, .149 of his FGA. This year, his 3pt attempts dropped dramatically to .083 of his FGA (his lowest 3pt attempts since 2010). He's essentially taking half as many 3pt shots as last year, which is probably related to point 1, where he increased his 10-16ft attempts at the expense of his 3pt attempts. Swapping one of the most efficient shots in basketball (3pt shot) for the least efficient (10-16ft attempt) seems like a great way to lower your efficiency.

                    3.) DD's %Assisted 2-Pt FG last year was .465. This year it has dropped to a career low of .431. This screams lack of ball movement, and heavy iso (also what the eye test says).

                    Now, this is just my opinion based on these stats and the eye test, but I think the change in offense this year to relying on iso instead of running horns has led to the dramatic decrease in 3pt attempts, the dramatic increase in long pull up jumpers, and the lack of assisted FG's. Which leads me to believe DD's decline this season is more tied to the offensive system then DD having a freak good year last year.

                    Main point, new coach with a ball movement based offensive system and I think Demar returns to 2013-14 form.
                    10-16 ft really isn't a bad shot to take IMO. It's the 16-23ft shots that are the killers. And Demar shooting less 3pt shots is a good thing considering he hits <30%. If he is trading these 3pt shots for 10-16ft than I think that's a good thing as well.

                    Would be interesting to see if the 16-23ft shots have changed at all. Those are the ones he needs to take less of. 10-16ft is around the free throw line.

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                    • #25
                      JawsGT wrote: View Post
                      10-16 ft really isn't a bad shot to take IMO. It's the 16-23ft shots that are the killers. And Demar shooting less 3pt shots is a good thing considering he hits <30%. If he is trading these 3pt shots for 10-16ft than I think that's a good thing as well.

                      Would be interesting to see if the 16-23ft shots have changed at all. Those are the ones he needs to take less of. 10-16ft is around the free throw line.
                      agree. how the hell is a 10-16 foot shot all that bad?

                      stats on nba.com show the following for shots between 10-14 feet (nba.com breaks it up at 10-14 feet and then 15-19 feet):

                      for players with at least 2 FGA per game from that range, demar is 6th in attempts. that SOUNDS bad until you look at his FG% from that area which is 42%. thats good for 10th best in the league. hes beating out russell westbrook, dwyane wade and lamarcus aldridge.

                      the people ahead of him are kevin durant, chris paul, chris bosh, markieff morris, rudy gay, dirk nowitzki, anthony davis, marc gasol and carmelo anthony.

                      the bigger drop off is when he shoots from 15-19 feet and 20-24 feet, where he is terrible (shooting at 32.9% and 32.6% respectively)

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                      • #26
                        JawsGT wrote: View Post
                        10-16 ft really isn't a bad shot to take IMO. It's the 16-23ft shots that are the killers. And Demar shooting less 3pt shots is a good thing considering he hits <30%. If he is trading these 3pt shots for 10-16ft than I think that's a good thing as well.

                        Would be interesting to see if the 16-23ft shots have changed at all. Those are the ones he needs to take less of. 10-16ft is around the free throw line.
                        Last year DD shot .305 from 3, and was .385 for 3's from the corner. He can be a useful 3pt shooter, he just has to pick his spots, or in an ideal world, the offense is structured to get him looks from the corner (Atlanta's offense provides a lot of corner 3's for instance). I think it would be a better strategy then having your SG abandon the 3pt shot.

                        DD actually shot an identical FG% last year for shots 10-16ft and shots 16-23ft, at .395. This year he is only shooting .364 from 10-16ft and .345 from 16-23ft. His 3pt % is also down to .273, but that doesn't matter much since he barely takes 3's.

                        DD is taking less 16-23ft shots this year, at .342 of his FGA, vs last year at .362 of FGA. It's still alarming that by far the largest % of his FGA come from 16-23ft. For comparison, DWade shoots .284 of his FGA from 16-23ft this year, and shot .248 of his FGA from 16-23ft last year. Dwade takes by far the largest % of his FGA from 0-3ft, which is obviously a much more efficient shot. Basically, if you're not going to take 3's, you have to get to the basket. It's bizarre because none of the high usage SG's have shot selection remotely similar to Derozan.

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                        • #27
                          Axel wrote: View Post
                          DD was elite last year. No one will really say otherwise.

                          But, and it is a big but, is that a progress or a one-off season? Based on everything else, I'm more in the "one time deal" camp.

                          I think under a different coach/system, DD can be an above average SG, but not a great one.
                          I actually think DD can be great under another coach/system. I can't recall any offensive system in recent memory as distorted as this year's Raps offense. Imagine prioritizing no passing and getting fouled as sustainable options?

                          IMO, DD only lacks a reliable 3-pt shot to be consistently in the >110 ORTG / >25 USG% category. It's a shame that he spends his off-season working mostly on #handle4life dribbling exercises. As a SG approaching free agency in this NBA analytics era, he (and his agent) must know that the 3-pt shooters are the ones getting paid.

                          BTW - thx for doing the last year/this year comparison. Adds more fuel to the fire! lol.

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                          • #28
                            Primer wrote: View Post
                            Last year DD shot .305 from 3, and was .385 for 3's from the corner. He can be a useful 3pt shooter, he just has to pick his spots, or in an ideal world, the offense is structured to get him looks from the corner (Atlanta's offense provides a lot of corner 3's for instance). I think it would be a better strategy then having your SG abandon the 3pt shot.

                            DD actually shot an identical FG% last year for shots 10-16ft and shots 16-23ft, at .395. This year he is only shooting .364 from 10-16ft and .345 from 16-23ft. His 3pt % is also down to .273, but that doesn't matter much since he barely takes 3's.

                            DD is taking less 16-23ft shots this year, at .342 of his FGA, vs last year at .362 of FGA. It's still alarming that by far the largest % of his FGA come from 16-23ft. For comparison, DWade shoots .284 of his FGA from 16-23ft this year, and shot .248 of his FGA from 16-23ft last year. Dwade takes by far the largest % of his FGA from 0-3ft, which is obviously a much more efficient shot. Basically, if you're not going to take 3's, you have to get to the basket. It's bizarre because none of the high usage SG's have shot selection remotely similar to Derozan.
                            yeah that's an improvement but not where it needs to be obviously. Hopefully the trend continues. Trading more of those shots for 3pt shots would be preferable. The highest percentage of his shots definitely should not come from that range. Inside/outside sprinkled with some 10-16 footers would probably be ideal.

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                            • #29
                              Crap, this is amazing. Those tables...

                              I think looking at DeMar's stats from last year we can quite easily determine that he can be, at the very least, an above-average SG.

                              I probably am most in line with MACK11's opinion on the matter of keeping him or not, to which I say keep him as DeMar likely can be a valuable player under the right coach. Or at the very least, needs a re-evaluation.

                              Of course if a trade for Vonleh comes up...

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                              • #30
                                Axel wrote: View Post
                                FGA TRB APG SPG BPG TOV PPG FG% eFG% FT% TS%
                                Elite Avg 17.1 3.89 4.33 1.36 0.37 2.73 21.21 0.430 0.477 0.830 0.538
                                DD 16.5 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.1 2.3 19.9 0.41 0.421 0.829 0.506
                                DD last year 17.8 4.3 4.0 1.1 0.4 2.2 22.7 0.429 0.452 0.824 0.532

                                TRB% APG% SPG% BPG% TOV% ORtg DRtg WS WS48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP
                                DD 7.7 16.4 1.8 0.3 10.3 104 109 3.4 0.083 -0.5 -1.5 -2 0
                                Elite Avg 6.5 23.5 2.1 0.929 11.81 106 106 5.55 0.1116 2.57 -1.057 1.528 2.071
                                DD last year 6.6 18.9 1.5 0.7 9.5 110 107 8.8 .141 1.4 -0.7 0.7 2.0
                                But doesn't this post prove that he was elite last year?? Am i missing something?

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